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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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31 minutes ago, Olive said:

Final presales for Your Name: 34.1M

maoyan.com predicts OD aournd 112M, I think that's too high, 90-100M more likely.

 

Think your being pessimistic. While the pre-sales did slow down it still far outsold FB and DS final 24 hours.

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7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

KFP3 did 2.67x PS. 

PS now at 35m =93m. 

It could be a multi of 3+ but that is rare for a toon.

 

Olive showed the demographic for this is not the usual toon breakdown so not sure you can apply it

Edited by eXtacy
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15 hours ago, eXtacy said:

 

Think your being pessimistic. While the pre-sales did slow down it still far outsold FB and DS final 24 hours.

KFP3 hit a broader demo as well.

It looks like it's going to be close, slightly under, KFP3s multi.

Edited by POTUS
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Not much going on next week with Hacksaw, Sully and Seventeen all looking to open under 20m on Thursday and Friday. YN FB and Moana should have good holds.

 

The Great Wall with 300k in PS at 2 weeks out!  

 

Edit. Increased to 400k in less than 1 day.

Early prediction based on standard ramp up of PS:

60m PS/ 160-200m OD

Edited by POTUS
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Upcoming new releases all looking super dead on arrival. How many screens will these three take away from holdovers. They look likely to open to less than Miss Peregrine.

 

25 hours

Sully - 1.66m OD

 

49 hours

Suddenly Seventeen - 1.05m OD

Hacksaw Ridge - 1.02m OD

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9 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Upcoming new releases all looking super dead on arrival. How many screens will these three take away from holdovers. They look likely to open to less than Miss Peregrine.

 

25 hours

Sully - 1.66m OD

 

49 hours

Suddenly Seventeen - 1.05m OD

Hacksaw Ridge - 1.02m OD

Your Name will hold 20% showtimes ,much more than FB's 2nd weekend

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Only decent comparison I could find in pre-sales thread. Someone update Great Wall in two days.

 

Captain America: Civil War

7 days + 2 hours to go

Mid-night 1.19m

Friday 3.56m

 

The Great Wall

9 Days + 1 hour

Midnight 1.17m

Friday 1.60m

 

 

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2 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Only decent comparison I could find in pre-sales thread. Someone update Great Wall in two days.

 

Captain America: Civil War

7 days + 2 hours to go

Mid-night 1.19m

Friday 3.56m

 

The Great Wall

9 Days + 1 hour

Midnight 1.17m

Friday 1.60m

 

 

How does it compare to Mojin? 

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6 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Upcoming new releases all looking super dead on arrival. How many screens will these three take away from holdovers. They look likely to open to less than Miss Peregrine.

 

25 hours

Sully - 1.66m OD

 

49 hours

Suddenly Seventeen - 1.05m OD

Hacksaw Ridge - 1.02m OD

Not correct, Hacksaw Ridge will release on Thursday. The current pre-sales for three new releases are as fellows.

 

20 hours,

Hacksaw Ridge - 1.77M

 

44 hours,

Suddenly Seventeen - 1.14M

Sully - 1.07M

 

 

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                                          The Great Wall Presales

 

  

    CA3       TGW  
PS at 1am MN PS OD PS OD PS% inc   TH 6pm PS OD PS OD PS% inc
Th 0.8 2.4     1.5 2.0  
Fr 1.2 3.6 50.0%        
Sa 1.8 6.2 72.2%        
Su 2.1 8.1 30.6%        
Mo 2.8 11.9 46.9%        
Tu 3.5 16.3 37.0%        
We 4.8 25.4 55.8%        
Th 6.4 37.9 49.2%        
Fr(OD) 18.1 65.8 73.6%        
               
  CA3 OD 05/06/16     TGW OD 12/16/16  
  MN 18     MN    
  OD 181     OD    
  OW 625     OW    
  Gross 1245     Gross    
               
  OD/PS muti 2.75     OD/PS muti    
  OW/MN multi 34.53     OW/MN multi    
  OW/OD multi 3.45     OW/OD multi    
  Tot/OD multi 6.88     Tot/OD multi    
  Tot/OW multi 1.99     Tot/OW multi    
Edited by POTUS
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4 hours ago, POTUS said:

                                          The Great Wall Presales

 

  

    CA3       TGW  
PS at 1am MN PS OD PS OD PS% inc   TH 6pm PS OD PS OD PS% inc
Th 0.8 2.4     1.5 2.0  
Fr 1.2 3.6 50.0%        
Sa 1.8 6.2 72.2%        
Su 2.1 8.1 30.6%        
Mo 2.8 11.9 46.9%        
Tu 3.5 16.3 37.0%        
We 4.8 25.4 55.8%        
Th 6.4 37.9 49.2%        
Fr(OD) 18.1 65.8 73.6%        
               
  CA3 OD 05/06/16     TGW OD 12/16/16  
  MN 18     MN    
  OD 181     OD    
  OW 625     OW    
  Gross 1245     Gross    
               
  OD/PS muti 2.75     OD/PS muti    
  OW/MN multi 34.53     OW/MN multi    
  OW/OD multi 3.45     OW/OD multi    
  Tot/OD multi 6.88     Tot/OD multi    
  Tot/OW multi 1.99     Tot/OW multi    
 

It says CAP, but I'm guessing you meant MOJIN?

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1 hour ago, Somoset said:

It says CAP, but I'm guessing you meant MOJIN?

No. It's cap3. I don't have PS data for MOJIN, but the ramp up is usually similar even with different genres.

The PS multi can be different.  TGW could be below 2.5x if it plays like a local.

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5 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Sales seem to be slowing down for Great Wall. Perhaps its not quite the juggernaut first thought.

Its not having a traditional OD. With 6pm shows the PS are going up nearly equally for Thursday and Friday. Friday is acting more like a sat, the PS will lag but will go up a great deal more the day before than an OD would. e.g. PS go up 75%~ the day before an OD, then will go up 100-150% the day before for day 2, normally a saturday.

It might follow domestic trend whereas Thursday could be 1/2 of real Friday.,

Im guestimating here; I think Thursday PS are tracking 60m for Thursday. Friday will be at least double that, then Sat will have a much larger bump like a holdover Saturday vs a Saturday after an OD.  could be-

60/120/200/150  for a 530m/$77m

or higher

70/140/220/170      600m/$87m

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