Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[POTUS 2020]

See you tomorrow had a great PS start and was looking huge. It's only at 24m. Will get over 30m by morning, but as a regular opening day and a local, it will probably to just 2.5x PS.

 

[POTUS 2020]

R1 PS has begun, just at 50k MN, 170k OD. at 10 days out, we should have an idea of potential size in 36 hours(thu 1am).  @Olive is it 7pm or MN on Thursday the 5th?

 

		CA3				TGW
PS at 1am	MN PS	OD PS	OD PS% inc		TH 6pm PS	PS% inc	OD PS	PS% inc
Th	0.8	2.4			1.6		2.0
Fr	1.2	3.6	50.0%		2.0	29.0%	2.4	20.0%
Sa	1.8	6.2	72.2%		2.5	25.0%	2.9	20.8%
Su	2.1	8.1	30.6%		3.1	24.0%	3.5	20.7%
Mo	2.8	11.9	46.9%		4.2	35.5%	4.5	28.6%
Tu	3.5	16.3	37.0%		5.8	38.1%	6.0	33.3%
We	4.8	25.4	55.8%		8.7	50.0%	9.1	51.7%
Th	6.4	37.9	49.2%		14.3	64.4%	13.9	52.7%
Fr(OD)		65.8	73.6%				27.0	94.2%
	CA3 OD	05/06/16			TGW OD	12/16/16
	MN	18			MN	50
	OD	181			OD	123
	OW	625			OW	470
	Gross	1245			Gross	1B+
	OD/PS muti	2.75			OD/PS muti	4.56
	OW/MN multi	34.53			OW/MN multi	9.40
	OW/OD multi	3.45			OW/OD multi	3.82
	Tot/OD multi	6.88			Tot/OD multi
	Tot/OW multi	1.99			Tot/OW multi

 

 

[Olive]

Only local movies can start at 7PM.

[Olive]

Star Trek Beyond
7 days + 23.5 hours to go
Mid-night 157k
Friday 732.3k
 
Rogue One
8 Days + 5.5 hour
Midnight 135k
Friday 732.1k

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

Star Trek Beyond
7 days + 23.5 hours to go
Mid-night 157k
Friday 732.3k
 
Rogue One
8 Days + 5.5 hour
Midnight 135k
Friday 732.1k

Very illustrative. Thank you

 

For reference, Star Trek Beyond did 440m Yuan, what means a 53% of SW7. That would mean that China behaves like the rest of the world with Rogue One.

Edited December 28, 2016 by peludo

[POTUS 2020]

R1 not jumping out of the gate. PS after 2 days are still under 1m and should be higher.  I did multies for PS for the same point in time out for CA3 and XMA.  Lets see if we can find a trend. we should see something by saturday.  OD projection in lover table is an average of XMA and CA3.

 

	CA3					XMA					R1		PS x	PS x
		multi		multi			multi		multi				CA3 m	XMA m
PS 1am	MN PS	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN PS	OD PS	OD proj	OD proj
Th	0.8	22.6	2.4	75.4				2.3	48.7		0.2	0.8	63.4	40.9
Fr	1.2	15.1	3.6	50.3				3.2	35.0
Sa	1.8	10.1	6.2	29.2				4.2	26.7
Su	2.1	8.6	8.1	22.3				4.9	22.9
Mo	2.8	6.5	11.9	15.2				6.2	18.1
Tu	3.5	5.2	16.3	11.1				9.0	12.4
We	4.8	3.8	25.4	7.1				11.1	10.1
Th	6.4	2.8	37.9	4.8				17.8	6.3
Fr(OD)			65.8	2.8				31.6	3.5
													63.4	40.9	average
	MN	18.1				MN	7.6				MN		proj		OD proj
	OD	181				OD	112				OD	52	proj
	OW	628				OW	386				OW	177	proj
	Gross	1245				Gross	802				Gross	372	proj
	OD/PS	2.75				OD/PS	3.5				OD/PS
	OW/MN	34.70				OW/MN	50.8				OW/MN
	OW/OD	3.47				OW/OD	3.45				OW/OD
	Tot/OD	6.88				Tot/OD	7.16				Tot/OD
	Tot/OW	1.98				Tot/OW	2.08				Tot/OW

[Olive]

Rogue One[6 days+7.5 hours]
midnights - 288k
OD - 2.00m
 
Doctor Strange[6 days+5.5 hours]
midnights - 500k
OD - 1.82m
 
Fantastic Beasts[6 days+3.5 hours]
midnights - 377k
OD - 1.81m
 
DS OD - 85.3m(Nov.4)
FB OD - 77m(Nov.25)

 

While midnights are still lagging behind, OD presales have caught up with DS and FB.

Rumor has it that Assassin's Creed will also opening the week after RO, legs will be shorter.

[POTUS 2020]

Its looking more an more like STB. Both PS multipliers for XMA and CA3 are pointing to 60m OD and a 440m total like STB. After 40 years Trekies may finally get to win a BO battle

 

	CA3					XMA					R1		PS x	PS x
		multi		multi			multi		multi				CA3 m	XMA m
PS 1am	MN PS	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN PS	OD PS	OD proj	OD proj
Th	0.8	22.6	2.4	75.4				2.3	48.7		0.18	0.8	63.4	40.9
Fr	1.2	15.1	3.6	50.3				3.2	35.0		0.25	1.2	60.3	42.0
Sa	1.8	10.1	6.2	29.2				4.2	26.7		0.30	2.2	64.2	58.7
Su	2.1	8.6	8.1	22.3				4.9	22.9
Mo	2.8	6.5	11.9	15.2				6.2	18.1
Tu	3.5	5.2	16.3	11.1				9.0	12.4
We	4.8	3.8	25.4	7.1				11.1	10.1
Th	6.4	2.8	37.9	4.8				17.8	6.3
Fr(OD)			65.8	2.8				31.6	3.5
	MN	18.1				MN	7.6				MN	3	proj
	OD	181				OD	112				OD	61	proj
	OW	628				OW	386				OW	209	proj
	Gross	1245				Gross	802				Gross	439	proj
	OD/PS	2.75				OD/PS	3.5				OD/PS
	OW/MN	34.70				OW/MN	50.8				OW/MN
	OW/OD	3.47				OW/OD	3.45				OW/OD
	Tot/OD	6.88				Tot/OD	7.16				Tot/OD
	Tot/OW	1.98				Tot/OW	2.08				Tot/OW

[Gavin Feng]

Rogue One[5 days+5.5 hours]
midnights - 552k
OD - 2.53m

Doctor Strange[4 days+5.5 hours]
midnights - 671k
OD - 2.70m

Fantastic Beasts[4 days+5.5 hours]
midnights - 558k
OD - 3.5m

 

X-Men: Apocalypse[4 days+23.5 hours]

midnights - 1.23m
OD - 4.91m

 

Now You See Me 2[4 days+1.5 hours]

OD - 2.68m

 

Midnights would earn about ￥4m if Maoyan’s data doesn’t make mistake(DS and FB did ￥3.96m and ￥2.49m). But I think RO might be far ahead of those films later on. TFA made ￥15.9m this year(it opened on Saturday), which is the fifth highest midnights number of this year(behind Warcraft, TGW, Time Raiders, CW).

[TigerPaw]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Midnights would earn about ￥4m if Maoyan’s data doesn’t make mistake(DS and FB did ￥3.96m and ￥2.49m). But I think RO might be far ahead of those films later on. TFA made ￥15.9m this year(it opened on Saturday), which is the fifth highest midnights number of this year(behind Warcraft, TGW, Time Raiders, CW).

From what I recall, correct me if I am wrong. DY and JW films never had huge presales right? Like Ip Man 3 or Let the Bullets fly.

Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen's have more Lu Ren Fans (passerby fans) hence presales may not show everything? 

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

From what I recall, correct me if I am wrong. DY and JW films never had huge presales right? Like Ip Man 3 or Let the Bullets fly.

Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen's have more Lu Ren Fans (passerby fans) hence presales may not show everything? 

Midnights of local films are always weaker than import film, so I don’t think adding Chinese actor will be useful to midnights. 

 

Audience in Second & third tier cities love local films and stars more, but they have no habit of watching midnights film.

[POTUS 2020]

R1 PS continues to point to a 60m OD

	CA3					XMA					R1		PS x	PS x
		multi		multi			multi		multi				CA3 m	XMA m
PS 1am	MN PS	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN PS	OD PS	OD proj	OD proj
Th	0.8	22.6	2.4	75.4				2.3	48.7		0.18	0.8	63.4	40.9
Fr	1.2	15.1	3.6	50.3				3.2	35.0		0.25	1.2	60.3	42.0
Sa	1.8	10.1	6.2	29.2				4.2	26.7		0.30	2.2	64.2	58.7
Su	2.1	8.6	8.1	22.3				4.9	22.9		0.57	2.7	59.2	60.6
Mo	2.8	6.5	11.9	15.2				6.2	18.1
Tu	3.5	5.2	16.3	11.1				9.0	12.4
We	4.8	3.8	25.4	7.1				11.1	10.1
Th	6.4	2.8	37.9	4.8				17.8	6.3
Fr(OD)			65.8	2.8				31.6	3.5
	MN	18.1				MN	7.6				MN	5	proj
	OD	181				OD	112				OD	60	proj
	OW	628				OW	386				OW	204	proj
	Gross	1245				Gross	802				Gross	428	proj
	OD/PS	2.75				OD/PS	3.5				OD/PS
	OW/MN	34.70				OW/MN	50.8				OW/MN
	OW/OD	3.47				OW/OD	3.45				OW/OD
	Tot/OD	6.88				Tot/OD	7.16				Tot/OD
	Tot/OW	1.98				Tot/OW	2.08				Tot/OW

 

[Gavin Feng]

[4 days+5.5 hours]

 

Rogue One

midnights - 620k

OD - 2.98m

 

Doctor Strange

midnights - 670k

OD - 2.70m

 

Fantastic Beasts

midnights - 558k

OD - 3.5m

[POTUS 2020]

	CA3					XMA					R1		PS x	PS x
		multi		multi			multi		multi				CA3 m	XMA m
PS 1am	MN PS	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN PS	OD PS	OD proj	OD proj
Th	0.8	22.6	2.4	75.4				2.3	48.7		0.18	0.8	63.4	40.9
Fr	1.2	15.1	3.6	50.3				3.2	35.0		0.25	1.2	60.3	42.0
Sa	1.8	10.1	6.2	29.2				4.2	26.7		0.30	2.2	64.2	58.7
Su	2.1	8.6	8.1	22.3				4.9	22.9		0.57	2.7	59.2	60.6
Mo	2.8	6.5	11.9	15.2				6.2	18.1		0.65	3.1	47.2	56.0
Tu	3.5	5.2	16.3	11.1				9.0	12.4
We	4.8	3.8	25.4	7.1				11.1	10.1
Th	6.4	2.8	37.9	4.8				17.8	6.3
Fr(OD)			65.8	2.8				31.6	3.5
	MN	18.1				MN	7.6				MN	5	proj
	OD	181				OD	112				OD	52	proj
	OW	628				OW	386				OW	175	proj
	Gross	1245				Gross	802				Gross	368	proj
	OD/PS	2.75				OD/PS	3.5				OD/PS
	OW/MN	34.70				OW/MN	50.8				OW/MN
	OW/OD	3.47				OW/OD	3.45				OW/OD
	Tot/OD	6.88				Tot/OD	7.16				Tot/OD
	Tot/OW	1.98				Tot/OW	2.08				Tot/OW

[POTUS 2020]

PS getting relatively weaker. Last year they offered discounts last minute that doubled PS on Thursday. They may need to do that again

	CA3					XMA					R1		PS x	PS x
		multi		multi			multi		multi				CA3 m	XMA m
PS 1am	MN PS	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN	MN/PS	OD PS	OD/PS		MN PS	OD PS	OD proj	OD proj
Th	0.8	22.6	2.4	75.4				2.3	48.7		0.18	0.8	63.4	40.9
Fr	1.2	15.1	3.6	50.3				3.2	35.0		0.25	1.2	60.3	42.0
Sa	1.8	10.1	6.2	29.2				4.2	26.7		0.30	2.2	64.2	58.7
Su	2.1	8.6	8.1	22.3				4.9	22.9		0.57	2.7	59.2	60.6
Mo	2.8	6.5	11.9	15.2				6.2	18.1		0.65	3.1	47.2	56.0
Tu	3.5	5.2	16.3	11.1				9.0	12.4		0.73	3.7	41.1	46.0
We	4.8	3.8	25.4	7.1				11.1	10.1
Th	6.4	2.8	37.9	4.8				17.8	6.3
Fr(OD)			65.8	2.8				31.6	3.5
	MN	18.1				MN	7.6				MN	5	proj
	OD	181				OD	112				OD	52	proj
	OW	628				OW	386				OW	175	proj
	Gross	1245				Gross	802				Gross	368	proj
	OD/PS	2.75				OD/PS	3.5				OD/PS
	OW/MN	34.70				OW/MN	50.8				OW/MN
	OW/OD	3.47				OW/OD	3.45				OW/OD
	Tot/OD	6.88				Tot/OD	7.16				Tot/OD
	Tot/OW	1.98				Tot/OW	2.08				Tot/OW

 

[Gavin Feng]

Rogue One is a disappointing blockbuster in China. 

 

But beating Hacksaw Ridge is still possible.

[Olive]

Rogue One[2 days+8.5 hours]
midnights - 796k
OD - 4.08m
 
Star Trek Beyond [ 2days+5 hours]
midnights - 669k
OD - 4.16m

 

Doctor Strange[2 days+9.5 hours]
midnights - 939k
OD - 4.91m
 
Fantastic Beasts[ 2days+11.5 hours]
midnights - 718k
OD - 5.93m
 

STB OD - 64.8m(Sep. 2)

DS OD - 85.3m(Nov.4)
FB OD - 77m(Nov.25)

[Ariana]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Rogue One is a disappointing blockbuster in China. 

 

But beating Hacksaw Ridge is still possible.

 

It's understandable. TFA made a bad impression on Chinese audiences, just like BvS and DCEU. I don't expect Ro1 and Ep8 can earn more than TFA did.

[Olive]

In Taiwan, Hacksaw Ridge beat the crap out of RO, I won't be surprised same thing happens in Mainland.

[TigerPaw]

19 hours ago, POTUS said:

PS getting relatively weaker. Last year they offered discounts last minute that doubled PS on Thursday. They may need to do that again

 

Heard from some posters at Tieba that some discounts are starting, is that true?