4-Day Weekend Actuals: Apoc $79.8M, Alice 2 $33.5M, Angry Birds $24.6M, Cap 3 $20.0M

[CJohn]

Alice's numbers scare me. 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Alice's numbers scare me. 

 

How do you overestimate 26M by so much

 

2

2

-

Alice Through the Looking Glass

BV

$28,112,000

$26,858,726

$-1,253,274

-4.5%

3,763

$28,112,000

$26,858,726

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

How do you overestimate 26M by so much

 

2

2

-

Alice Through the Looking Glass

BV

$28,112,000

$26,858,726

$-1,253,274

-4.5%

3,763

$28,112,000

$26,858,726

The whole number is just pure WTF. At the lowest possible I thought it would do 35M for the 4 day. It went below that!!!

[department store basement]

Wow, 6.7% drop for Ratchet & Clank?

[Krissykins]

Alice is officially our first big bomb of the summer.

 

Its not just a huge flop. It absolutely TANKED. 

[Mojoguy]

6 minute ago, grimm22 said:

How do you overestimate 26M by so much


2 2 - Alice Through the Looking Glass BV $28,112,000 $26,858,726 $-1,253,274 -4.5% 3,763 $28,112,000 $26,858,726

Disney fudging the fuck out of Alice 2. LMAO

[Krissykins]

Tomorrowland, Fantastic Four, Lone Ranger, After Earth, RIPD, Battleship, The Lone Ranger, Sorcerers Apprentice have new company with Alice.

[Mojoguy]

3 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Alice is officially our first big bomb of the summer.

Its not just a huge flop. It absolutely TANKED.

Don't you mean TRANKED?

[department store basement]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Don't you mean TRANKED?

 

If it Tranked it would have less than a 10% from our gods the Rotten Tomatoes.

[franfar]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Yes, but it didn't affect any other studio directly, there were no records at stake, and even with the actual numbers Transformers would have still had the biggest opening of the year to date. Not worth the trouble for any other studio calling them out, especially over a non-consequential issue (and they compensated by understating Monday and Tuesday numbers). Now if say, for example, Catching Fire had claimed a 161M OW and a highest 2D opening ever, pretty sure WB would have called them out for sure with the actuals.

Some people were calling Paramount's bluff: http://deadline.com/2014/06/transformers-late-night-estimate-8-75m-on-path-to-mid-90m-opening-797118/

 

[Plain Old Tele]

For TF4, we basically had quasi-actuals from Rth on late Sunday night. He said 98.5m and IIRC actually put a laughing smiley or "lol" at it grossing 100m.

[Outrageous!]

In the past, when a huge flop had a terrible opening weekend, their second weekends usually dropped in the 65 to 75 percent range.  Even though it was a 4 day holiday weekend, does that sound like it will happen again to Alice here?  About the only two things I will remember about Alice Through the Looking Glass is that it was the penultimate character set for Disney Infinity, and it was also a new world in a Disney Crossy Road update.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Outrageous!

[johnboy3434]

IF YOU JUST WANT PROJECTIONS, SKIP THIS...

 

Here's the projections based on four-day weekend actuals. I think I've finally worked most of the kinks out of my forecasting procedure. I'm using the daily data for one roughly similar movie as an external regressor for my time series analysis on each film, chosen based on six criteria:

 

1.) MPAA rating (G, PG, PG-13, R, NC-17)

2.) opening theater count (800-1999, 2000-2499, 2500-2999, 3000+; <800 is considered "limited release" and will not be tracked)

3.) opening weekday (Friday or non-Friday) 

4.) month of release (when applicable, this is narrowed to specific holidays)

5.) opening weekend rank (#1, #2-#5, #6-#10, #11+)

6.) adjusted opening weekend gross

 

The pool of candidates is narrowed to those that match the first five criteria. Then, of those, the one with the adjusted opening weekend gross closest to the film being forecasted is chosen as the external regressor. In the interest of full disclosure, here are the regressors for each of the below films:

 

X-Men: Apocalypse? Men in Black 3

Captain America: Civil War? Iron Man 3

Alice Through the Looking Glass? Epic

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising? A Million Ways to Die in the West

The Angry Birds Movie? Shrek

The Nice Guys? Georgia Rule

Money Monster? House of Wax

The Darkness? Delta Farce

 

Before opening weekend, I play it a bit fast and loose, picking a "comparable" film based on various website's projections. I then re-pick the film after opening weekend when I have real information to work with.

 

PROJECTIONS HERE (ALL WEEKEND DROPS ARE FROM THE FOUR-DAY, SO THEY'LL BE HIGH)...

 

 

X-Men: Apocalypse

Tuesday: $5.41M (-61.5%)

Wednesday: $3.82M (-29.4%)

Thursday: $3.94M (+3.23%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $93M

Friday: $8.4M (+113%)

Saturday: $12.9M (+53.1%)

Sunday: $8.29M (-35.6%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $29.6M (-63%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $176M (2.2x)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Tuesday: $1.69M (-63.2%)

Wednesday: $1.5M (-11.5%)

Thursday: $1.34M (-10.9%)

FOURTH WEEK TOTAL: $24.5M (-43.2%)

Friday: $2.19M (+64.2%)

Saturday: $2.82M (+28.4%)

Sunday: $2.14M (-24.1%)

FIFTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $7.15M (-64.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $409M (2.28x)

 

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Tuesday: $1.65M (-75.2%)

Wednesday: $1.31M (-20.7%)

Thursday: $1.29M (-1.28%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $37.8M

Friday: $3.31M (+156%)

Saturday: $5.25M (+58.4%)

Sunday: $3.97M (-24.4%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $12.5M (-62.6%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $76.6M (2.29x)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Tuesday: $1.64M (-21.3%)

Wednesday: $1.49M (-9.31%)

Thursday: $1.18M (-21.1%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $15.8M (-46.1%)

Friday: $1.52M (+29.1%)

Saturday: $1.84M (+21.1%)

Sunday: $1.65M (-10.3%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $5.01M (-56.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $59.3M (2.73x)

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Tuesday: $1.25M (-78.4%)

Wednesday: $1.12M (-10.5%)

Thursday: $1.22M (+9.02%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $28.1M (-40.9%)

Friday: $3.08M (+153%)

Saturday: $5.81M (+88.6%)

Sunday: $4.02M (-30.9%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $12.9M (-47.4%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $134M (3.5x)

 

The Nice Guys

Tuesday: $954k (-45.1%)

Wednesday: $930k (-2.61%)

Thursday: $887k (-4.58%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $11M (-28.2%)

Friday: $1.1M (+23.7%)

Saturday: $1.49M (+35.4%)

Sunday: $1.4M (-5.87%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $3.98M (-51.8%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $36.5M (3.26x)

 

Money Monster

Tuesday: $625k (-51.8%)

Wednesday: $611k (-2.3%)

Thursday: $656k (+7.39%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $7.52M (-21.9%)

Friday: $740k (+12.9%)

Saturday: $853k (+15.2%)

Sunday: $788k (-7.69%)

FOURTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $2.38M (-57.7%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $41.2M (2.79x)

 

The Darkness

Tuesday: $113k (-35.5%)

Wednesday: $114k (+0.92%)

Thursday: $112k (-1.19%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $1.23M (-59.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $10.3M (2.09x)

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by johnboy3434

[Mojoguy]

10 minute ago, Outrageous! said:

In the past, when a huge flop had a terrible opening weekend, their second weekends usually dropped in the 65 to 75 percent range. Even though it was a 4 day holiday weekend, does that sound like it will happen again to Alice here? About the only two things I will remember about Alice Through the Looking Glass is that it was the penultimate character set for Disney Infinity, and it was also a new world in a Disney Crossy Road update.

No one wanted an Alice sequel in the first place. Sequels tend to be much more frontloaded than their first movies though especially after an inflated holiday weekend.

Edited June 1, 2016 by Mojoguy

[department store basement]

4 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

The Nice Guys? Georgia Rule

 

Most random choice ever.

[franfar]

40 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

For TF4, we basically had quasi-actuals from Rth on late Sunday night. He said 98.5m and IIRC actually put a laughing smiley or "lol" at it grossing 100m.

Where does Rth get his numbers from?

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

Where does Rth get his numbers from?

 

The source.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The source.

 

So many people have died trying to get to it, they are now statues on the wall

 

[mrqe93]

Didn't some people predict 80+ for Alice 2? 

[johnboy3434]

1 minute ago, mrqe93 said:

Didn't some people predict 80+ for Alice 2? 

 

Yeeeah, that was me. My bad. I was using Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian as a baseline, when I should have been thinking in terms of Epic.