Next animated film in the future to surpass Frozen, WW-wise?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

So far.....Finding Dory is at $785M WW. Sadly.....it may not oust to $1.2B WW....but could finish it's run around 1.05B WW.

 

Now this topic is about animated films that could have the potential to be the new animated champion. Oh, and before any of you diehard Frozen-fans are saying "Oh, nothing will ever beat Frozen again!" "I don't want any other animated film to top it.".......well, it got to $1.276B due to Japan adding in over $240M over there.

 

There will be a time where Frozen does get outgrossed by another animated movie. The one other animated movie to get close....is Minions, and that film made $1.159B WW. I will count down those animated films that could have the chances if they massively break out. But i won't count Frozen 2 as one of them.....cause let's be honest......it's from the same franchise. So that doesn't count.

 

OK, here are the next upcoming animated films:

 

The more likely ones:

 

Moana

Despicable Me 3

Toy Story 4

The Incredibles 2

 

Which one do you think has the most chance of beating Frozen?

Edited September 3, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[miketheavenger]

I would say TS4 is the most likely of those one if it's on par with the other films. However, it's probably going to be an original movie that no one saw coming (like Frozen was).

[MrFanaticGuy34]

9 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

I would say TS4 is the most likely of those one if it's on par with the other films. However, it's probably going to be an original movie that no one saw coming (like Frozen was).

 

Like Moana?  That's an original.

[Rsyu]

In terms of likelihood, a sequel to a well established franchise/series such as minions or Toy Story is always going to be the better bet to break out and beat Frozen, although that would be pretty depressing. I can see TS4 getting there definitely if it doesn't drop in quality.

 

I would love it if an original film did it though and took everyone by surprise. Being a fan of disney animated musical films, my personal preference would be that Moana turns out to be another disney classic and breaks Frozen's record. 

 

I wouldn't be too surprised though if nothing beats Frozen until Frozen 2 comes out.

 

 

[Cynosure]

Anything but DM3 please.

[Jason]

I think the current strength of the USD will make it very difficult for any film to beat Frozen WW in the near future. The USD has strengthened about 20% against the trade-weighted basket of currencies since Frozen's release. Frozen itself would have grossed only about $750M OS based on today's exchange rates, and it's helped a lot by the large portion of its OS gross from Japan, which is the only major currency to similar in strength now against the USD as it was at the time Frozen's run.

 

If I had to name a film that could be a contender, I'd go with Frozen 2. Earliest possible release for Frozen 2 is November 2019, by which time it's possible that the USD will not be quite as strong as it is now. Even then I expect it will depend on Frozen 2 being the phenomenon in Japan that Frozen was.

Edited July 28, 2016 by Jason

[fabiopazzo2]

Frozen 2

[peludo]

13 hours ago, Jason said:

I think the current strength of the USD will make it very difficult for any film to beat Frozen WW in the near future. The USD has strengthened about 20% against the trade-weighted basket of currencies since Frozen's release. Frozen itself would have grossed only about $750M OS based on today's exchange rates, and it's helped a lot by the large portion of its OS gross from Japan, which is the only major currency to similar in strength now against the USD as it was at the time Frozen's run.

 

If I had to name a film that could be a contender, I'd go with Frozen 2. Earliest possible release for Frozen 2 is November 2019, by which time it's possible that the USD will not be quite as strong as it is now. Even then I expect it will depend on Frozen 2 being the phenomenon in Japan that Frozen was.

This. With similar ER, Minions would had already made similar numbers than Frozen. I think that none of the upcoming sequels, probably not even Frozen 2, will beat Frozen. As some of you are saying it will be something no one will see coming. The ER factor has become decisive.

[Quigley]

Wreck-It Ralph 2 

[edroger3]

20 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Frozen 2

I don't think we will see F2 in next few years. Disney knows well that the wave of first movie isn't coming to an end and tries to milk the cow in every possible way (theme parks, Broadway, cruises, app & videogames). Other, more important, the big licensing partners, mainly Hasbro and Lego, are putting the mouse house under pressure for new partnership, as the sales of Star Wars related items aren't so great as expected overseas and, by now, Frozen is always at the top of the whishlist . So the creative team behind F2 is now involved in other "co-financed" projects and the developement of the cinematic sequel is delayed. The most important of those is "Frozen Northern Lights", a brand new story in partnership with Lego that will be released in late 2016: there will be a tv serie, books and obviously toys. (I remember you that in 2015 the top seller among Lego items was the "Elsa ice Castle" building set). Wel'll see.

 

 

[cannastop]

On 7/29/2016 at 4:44 PM, edroger3 said:

I don't think we will see F2 in next few years. Disney knows well that the wave of first movie isn't coming to an end and tries to milk the cow in every possible way (theme parks, Broadway, cruises, app & videogames). Other, more important, the big licensing partners, mainly Hasbro and Lego, are putting the mouse house under pressure for new partnership, as the sales of Star Wars related items aren't so great as expected overseas and, by now, Frozen is always at the top of the whishlist . So the creative team behind F2 is now involved in other "co-financed" projects and the developement of the cinematic sequel is delayed. The most important of those is "Frozen Northern Lights", a brand new story in partnership with Lego that will be released in late 2016: there will be a tv serie, books and obviously toys. (I remember you that in 2015 the top seller among Lego items was the "Elsa ice Castle" building set). Wel'll see.

[cut out the video]

 

I don't see what that has to do with the movies.

 

Right now, WDAS has untitled slots for the Wednesday before Thanksgiving in the years 2019 and 2020. I think Frozen 2 is going to be in one of those slots.

Edited September 2, 2016 by cannastop

[fabiopazzo2]

23 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

I don't think we will see F2 in next few years. Disney knows well that the wave of first movie isn't coming to an end and tries to milk the cow in every possible way (theme parks, Broadway, cruises, app & videogames). Other, more important, the big licensing partners, mainly Hasbro and Lego, are putting the mouse house under pressure for new partnership, as the sales of Star Wars related items aren't so great as expected overseas and, by now, Frozen is always at the top of the whishlist . So the creative team behind F2 is now involved in other "co-financed" projects and the developement of the cinematic sequel is delayed. The most important of those is "Frozen Northern Lights", a brand new story in partnership with Lego that will be released in late 2016: there will be a tv serie, books and obviously toys. (I remember you that in 2015 the top seller among Lego items was the "Elsa ice Castle" building set). Wel'll see.

 

 

Frozen coming out 2019! 

[cannastop]

The Possibilities:

 

Moana: Dark horse candidate, just like Frozen was. It doesn't seem likely to actually get to $1.2b, though, considering exchange rates.

 

Despicable Me 3: Probably won't be much more than Minions. I sense fatigue.

 

Toy Story 4: Really hard to tell. Can it expand from Toy Story 3, or are they just beating a dead horse?

 

The Incredibles 2: I think Finding Dory set the ceiling here.

 

Even if it hasn't been announced yet, I think you should consider Zootopia 2. If it can have a sequel bump like Shrek or Despicable Me, it could make $500m+ domestically. And we know the original was a huge hit in China, so maybe the sequel could get to $800m from China alone six years from now. That alone would get it past Frozen. The main risk with this is that we don't know if it could expand, and we don't know what exactly will happen with the Chinese economy.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2016 by cannastop

[edroger3]

32 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I don't see what that has to do with the movies.

Usually the animated movies are made with the hope to sell toys. Or at least this is I have heard during my more than twenty years working in this market.

 

So we can predict the boxoffice results of an animated blockbuster basing on how much the studios are convinced to sell the toys related and how much they decide to invest on its promotion.

 

Think to the Minions movie: despite it was pure shit, was very easy to predict the billion, cause the monster promotion budget (600M$!) that was almost all provided by the licensing partners that was sure to sell tons of toys, gadgets and more and more items.

 

We really need the 4th toy story, the 2nd incredibles, the 3rd desplicable or a new princess story? I don't know, but I know that all of those are very very able to sell toys.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, edroger3 said:

Usually the animated movies are made with the hope to sell toys. Or at least this is I have heard during my more than twenty years working in this market.

 

So we can predict the boxoffice results of an animated blockbuster basing on how much the studios are convinced to sell the toys related and how much they decide to invest on its promotion.

 

Think to the Minions movie: despite it was pure shit, was very easy to predict the billion, cause the monster promotion budget (600M$!) that was almost all provided by the licensing partners that was sure to sell tons of toys, gadgets and more and more items.

 

We really need the 4th toy story, the 2nd incredibles, the 3rd desplicable or a new princess story? I don't know, but I know that all of those are very very able to sell toys.

I was disputing your statement that Frozen 2 wasn't going to come out in the next few years. Are you aware that Frozen 2 has already officially been announced? And that there are spots reserved in 2019 and 2020 that could be for it?

[YM!]

Either Toy Story 4 (If they use Marvel/Star Wars Toys) or Frozen 2 (Hoping for TS4, but the latter is more likely.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Either Toy Story 4 (If they use Marvel/Star Wars Toys) or Frozen 2 (Hoping for TS4, but the latter is more likely.

Using Marvel or Star Wars toys in Toy Story 4 would make the movie worse, and I'm not sure people would flock to a Pixar movie just for a gimmick. The story is about Woody and Buzz, not Iron Man and Kylo Ren. If they feature Marvel and Star Wars too much, that might just make the audience confused.

 

Really not sure about Frozen 2. I'm not convinced it can expand from the original.

[YM!]

35 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Using Marvel or Star Wars toys in Toy Story 4 would make the movie worse, and I'm not sure people would flock to a Pixar movie just for a gimmick. The story is about Woody and Buzz, not Iron Man and Kylo Ren. If they feature Marvel and Star Wars too much, that might just make the audience confused.

 

Really not sure about Frozen 2. I'm not convinced it can expand from the original.

I meant as like a secondary character, like how Spider Man was in Civil War but it is gimmicky. Frozen 2 can be either or. A Zootopia 2 or A Finding Hank/Gerald/Marlin could possibly break the record. Incredibles 2 could do it though, I can see It performing like Dory in the states and if Superhero Movies are still popular in China, I can see it making BH6 numbers in China.

[cannastop]

Just now, YourMother said:

I meant as like a secondary character, like how Spider Man was in Civil War but it is gimmicky. Frozen 2 can be either or. A Zootopia 2 or A Finding Hank/Gerald/Marlin could possibly break the record. Incredibles 2 could do it though, I can see It performing like Dory in the states and if Superhero Movies are still popular in China, I can see it making BH6 numbers in China.

I guess featuring them in the background might work. I can't help shake the feeling of a Shrek 3 style decline for Toy Story 4, though.

 

And Finding Hank breaking a record? I can barely imagine that movie being made, let alone being wildly popular.

 

And I'm kind of doubtful for Incredibles 2 doing well in China because the original wasn't even released in that country.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I guess featuring them in the background might work. I can't help shake the feeling of a Shrek 3 style decline for Toy Story 4, though.

 

And Finding Hank breaking a record? I can barely imagine that movie being made, let alone being wildly popular.

 

And I'm kind of doubtful for Incredibles 2 doing well in China because the original wasn't even released in that country.

 

Well, Illumination's Despicable Me wasn't released in China either....but look how it's sequel did over there. $52M in China, DM2 make.

 

Different times though......and i think that would be the same case for Incredibles 2 where it does get a China release no matter what.