Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[a2k]

12M Fri would give about 41-42M (68.6-69.3% drop)

Because of strong summer weekdays the 10-day cume is still better than BVS legs wise.

 

133.7 + 45.3 + 41.5 = 220.5; 10-day is 1.65x the OW.

166.0 + 43.1 + 51.3 = 260.4; 10-day is 1.57x the OW.

 

Even if SS has another big 60% drop next week (both weekdays and weekend) and all the following weeks being 50% drops, it will do ~290M.

 

If 12M/41-42M it is, then the dom range IMO is 295-305M.

[somebody85]

14 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

I really disliked this movie as much as anyone else here but it's too soon to start posting this stuff. We didn't start breaking out these videos for BVS until late Saturday numbers showed how huge a fall it was. By then you could really determine where it was headed.

We'll see. Could go up, could go down.

[RthDeadWov]

15 minutes ago, #ED said:

I'm here for the pink sausages.

[Dementeleus]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

We had good cause to always assume the movie wasn't clearing 50m though, based on historical patterns for films with such huge OD frontloading and even a (very loose) range already given. 

 

I didn't think it would hit 50m, but I didn't think Baumer's logic was wrong either. I went and looked at a whole range of movies and their second Friday in early/mid-August, and there were a lot of 70-85% jumps. There were also some larger-than-usual-summer Sunday drops.

[somebody85]

Just now, a2knet said:

12M Fri would give about 41-42M (68.6-69.3% drop)

Because of strong summer weekdays the 10-day cume is still better than BVS legs wise.

 

133.7 + 45.3 + 41.5 = 220.5; 10-day is 1.65x the OW.

166.0 + 43.1 + 51.3 = 260.4; 10-day is 1.57x the OW.

 

Even if SS has another big 60% drop next week (both weekdays and weekend) and all the following weeks being 50% drops, it will do ~290M.

 

If 12M/41-42M it is, then the dom range IMO is 295-305M.

I was just thinking that about BVS weekdays (they seemed a lot worse) but you can't really compare them because people were I believe in school then?

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I don't think there's been a huge argument over the nature of WOM here either. The majority felt it had absolutely horrible WOM. Some felt the WOM was okay but not great. Almost everyone seemed to agree that the second weekend would hold more answers. That this early Friday number is now being hurled at those who felt it'd be best to wait seems odd and nasty. But then again, most discussions seem to turn unreasonable fairly quickly this days, especially when it comes to CBMs and in particular DC (and Marvel).

 

I don't think this threads really gotten all that nasty or anything at all.  I do think a few members had given a fair bit of grief, or were just being frustrating throughout the day or the week, and so it's kind of an affirmation for the people who had been taking the grief.

 

It's very hard to resist an I told you so, especially when it's against a few stubborn arguments that were shown to be wrong.

[somebody85]

6 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

The DCEU isn't any more alive or dead than it was last weekend. The movie's gonna be a financial success but a critical disappointment, and DC will have to hope their next movie moves things forward in a more positive way.

Pretty much, if it drops 68-70% it will just be more bad press though. More fan arguing. The movies not a flop or anything.

Again all I want out of this, is the original cut to be released when it hits BluRay.

[ecstasy]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

They're not from the same studio though, it's Universal and Sony.  They just paired them because they're animated.  

ah ok. Now I see. That is weird. for some reason I read that as SS and SLOP.

Edited August 13, 2016 by ecstasy

[Dementeleus]

Just now, somebody85 said:

Pretty much, if it drops 68-70% it will just be more bad press though. More fan arguing. The movies not a flop or anything.

Again all I want out of this, is the original cut to be released when it hits BluRay.

 

I don't think that will happen. What's the point?

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Rth said:

I count 13.5 million individual pink fabric fibers, so 13.5m for SP? 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I didn't think it would hit 50m, but I didn't think Baumer's logic was wrong either. I went and looked at a whole range of movies and their second Friday in early/mid-August, and there were a lot of 70-85% jumps. There were also some larger-than-usual-summer Sunday drops.

But I also feel like we don't know how a 130M+ film is going to play during this month. Does it behave like those other films or does it end up taking a course of its own. 

[somebody85]

Just now, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I don't think that will happen. What's the point?

It still could. The cut was screened for test audiences. They have plenty of time to clean it up and it would help the BluRay sales a lot. 

It was a different movie via the deleted scenes many have said to have witnessed. A lot of people want to see it.

[YM!]

Pete's Dragon got an A on Cinemascore.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

But I also feel like we don't know how a 130M+ film is going to play during this month. Does it behave like those other films or does it end up taking a course of its own. 

I mean considering we have its MCU counterpart released the same date 2 years ago, we have a pretty good idea how it would play if well liked. 

[jb007]

1 hour ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I'm baffled.

Older people (including me) are easily baffled. 

[Ozymandias]

I'm sorry but I'm gonna gloat because I'm sick of reading posts by people like Napolean trying to shoot down any negative opinions with pretentious fact free nonsense when it comes to his holy trinity of Batman VS Superman, Ghostbusters, and Suicide Squad.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

But I also feel like we don't know how a 130M+ film is going to play during this month. Does it behave like those other films or does it end up taking a course of its own. 

 

You're completely right about this. Agreed.

 

Just now, somebody85 said:

It still could. The cut was screened for test audiences. They have plenty of time to clean it up and it would help the BluRay sales a lot. 

It was a different movie via the deleted scenes many have said to have witnessed. A lot of people want to see it.

 

Why would it help Blu-ray sales a lot? Studios aren't in the habit of putting in-progress versions out, especially into an environment where it's only going to invite second-guessing. The only times it's happened (in this sort of situation), is with veteran directors with really good relationships with their studio, where they accepted full responsibility for the theatrical cut and the extended version was floated as an interesting addition. (I'm thinking primarily of Cameron with THE ABYSS and Ridley Scott with KINGDOM OF HEAVEN.) Most of the time, you end up with something like Lynch's DUNE (or maybe Fincher's ALIEN 3) -- critically reviled, but the theatrical cut is what you get (except when the studio throws together something entirely different without the filmmaker's approval).

 

The would-be "extended editions" that are more common these days were planned early on -- at least relatively early in post-production -- when the creative team realized their preferred version would just run too long. PJ's made a habit of doing these, and Snyder's BVS falls into that category too. But that's not the case here.

[a2k]

BAD MOMS OD (9.5) was 4.75x the previews (2).

SP OD (13) is 4x the previews (3.25).

If a similar amount of front-loading compared to BAD MOMS extends through the weekend then SP would be looking 25-30M opposed to 30-35M.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

I'm sorry but I'm gonna gloat because I'm sick of reading posts by people like Napolean trying to shoot down any negative opinions with pretentious fact free nonsense when it comes to his holy trinity of Batman VS Superman, Ghostbusters, and Suicide Squad.

 

Yeah, we all know the real holy trinity is The BFG, The Girl on the Train, and Passengers.

[somebody85]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

I'm sorry but I'm gonna gloat because I'm sick of reading posts by people like Napolean trying to shoot down any negative opinions with pretentious fact free nonsense when it comes to his holy trinity of Batman VS Superman, Ghostbusters, and Suicide Squad.

I thought he hated it originally? People here were surprised. No comment on his "God Snyder".