Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[Jonwo]

15 hours ago, James said:

Here's my 2 cents on this:

 

DOM

1. Han Solo - 480m

2. Jurassic World - 465m

3. Infinity War - 460m

4. Incredibles 2 - 380m

5. Deadpool 2 - 360m

6. Aquaman - 305m

7. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 300m

8. Mulan - 295m

9. Ready Player One - 275m

10. The Grinch - 270m

 

OS

 

1. Infinity War - 850m

2. Jurassic World - 805m

3. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 650m

4. Transformers 6 - 610m

5. Mulan - 605m

6. Mission Impossible 6 - 510m

7. Han Solo - 500m

8. Ready Player One - 490m

9. Deadpool 2 - 480m

10. The Incredibles 2 - 450m 

 

WW

 

1. Infinity War - 1.31b

2. Jurassic World - 1.27b

3. Han Solo - 980m

4. Fantastic Beasts - 950m

5. Mulan - 900m

6. Deadpool 2 - 840 

7. The Incredibles 2 - 830m

8. Ready Player One - 765m

9. Transformers 6 - 750m

10. Aquaman - 710m

 

Also, out of curiosity, I've seen a lot of very low predictions for FB2, especially DOM. The first one had amazing WOM and legs and with teh addition of Dumbledore I don;t see how this one will fall from that.

And what is with the huge WW predictions for The Incredibles 2. I understand that DOM it might be huge, but OS wasn't that impressive back in the day. I just don't see 1b for it. 

 

The RPO numbers are a touch higher than I what I think it'll do but I wouldn't be surprised if it does reach those numbers. 

[YM!]

Just putting this out here:

Black Panther will be 2018's GOTG/Deadpool/Wonder Woman big breakout superhero movie hit domestically.

Edited May 21, 2017 by YourMother

[That One Girl]

On 4/11/2017 at 6:17 PM, That One Valerian said:

I've been constantly updating my list with release date shit and all that but here's my list bumped to the front of the page:

 

1. Han Solo - 190/570

2. Jurassic World 2 - 200/500

3. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 110/440

4. Avengers: Infinity War - 185/435

5. Incredibles 2 - 121/425

6. Deadpool 2 - 130/325

7. Black Panther - 130/315

8. Ready Player One - 100/300

9. Animated Spider-Man - 70/295

10. Mortal Engines - 60/249

11. Mulan - 85/237

12. Alita: Battle Angel - 90/230

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 80/210

14. Ocean's 8 - 66/195

15. Aquaman - 55/193

16. Venom - 80/184

17. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 65/182

18. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 45/180

19. First Man - 30/180

20. Mary Poppins Returns - 23/161

21. Rampage - 60/156

22. Mission: Impossible 6 - 50/150

23. Cruella - 45/150

24. Bohemian Rhapsody - 25/148

25. Hotel Transylvania 3 - 45/144

26. Peter Rabbit - 40/142

27. The Pact - 45/139

28. Halloween - 40/130

29. Predator - 45/122

30. New Mutants - 50/120

31. Dark Phoenix - 45/115

32. Jungle Book: Origins - 40/110

33. Action Point - 40/100

34. Holmes and Watson - 33/100

35. Bumblebee - 40/96

36. Tag - 30/96

37. A Wrinkle in Time - 30/93

38. Smallfoot - 30/92

39. Tomb Raider - 40/90

40. Red Sparrow - 35/88

41. Scarface - 20/80

42. Purge 4 - 33/76

43. Fifty Shades Freed - 35/75

44. The Nun - 30/70

45. White Boy Rick - 24/72

46. Amusement Park - 20/70

47. Night School - 25/68

48. The Spy Who Dumped Me - 20/68

49. Anubis - 20/66

50. Bad Boys for Life - 30/64

51. The Darkest Minds - 25/65

52. Proud Mary - 21/64

53. Skyscraper - 25/63

54. Game Night - 18/62

55. Meg - 25/61

56. Goosebumps 2 - 16/61

57. Slenderman - 30/60

58. Pacific Rim 2 - 28/60

59. Barbie - 19/57

60. Maze Runner: Death Cure - 20/55

61. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - 17/53

62. Robert Zemeckis project - 14/51

63. A Star is Born - 16/50

64. Widows - 15/49

65. Sherlock Gnomes - 15/46

66. Life of the Party - 18/45

67. Equalizer 2 - 17/42

68. Horse Soldiers - 16/42

69. Insidious: Chapter 4 - 20/41

70. The Girl in the Spider's Web - 15/39

71. The Commuter - 15/38

72. The Kid Who Would be King - 14/36

73. Winchester - 14/35

74. Magic Camp - 11/33

75. Robin Hood - 15/30

76. Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda (which is probably the Greg Berlanti flick) - 10/28

77. Den of Thieves - 12/25

78. A Quiet Place - 10/24

79. Extinction - 10/23

80. God's Not Dead 3 - 7/20

81. Gringo - 7/17

82. Captive State - 7/16

83. Tully - 6/15

84. Entebbe - 5/12

85. Cadaver - 5/10

86. Midnight Sun - 3/7

bumping for maximum relevancy

[FantasticBeasts]

On 20/5/2017 at 0:52 PM, James said:

Here's my 2 cents on this:

 

DOM

1. Han Solo - 480m

2. Jurassic World - 465m

3. Infinity War - 460m

4. Incredibles 2 - 380m

5. Deadpool 2 - 360m

6. Aquaman - 305m

7. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 300m

8. Mulan - 295m

9. Ready Player One - 275m

10. The Grinch - 270m

 

OS

 

1. Infinity War - 850m

2. Jurassic World - 805m

3. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 650m

4. Transformers 6 - 610m

5. Mulan - 605m

6. Mission Impossible 6 - 510m

7. Han Solo - 500m

8. Ready Player One - 490m

9. Deadpool 2 - 480m

10. The Incredibles 2 - 450m 

 

WW

 

1. Infinity War - 1.31b

2. Jurassic World - 1.27b

3. Han Solo - 980m

4. Fantastic Beasts - 950m

5. Mulan - 900m

6. Deadpool 2 - 840 

7. The Incredibles 2 - 830m

8. Ready Player One - 765m

9. Transformers 6 - 750m

10. Aquaman - 710m

 

Also, out of curiosity, I've seen a lot of very low predictions for FB2, especially DOM. The first one had amazing WOM and legs and with teh addition of Dumbledore I don;t see how this one will fall from that.

And what is with the huge WW predictions for The Incredibles 2. I understand that DOM it might be huge, but OS wasn't that impressive back in the day. I just don't see 1b for it. 

Talking as a fellow potterhead I will tell you why I remain cautious.

First of all, I think that telling that the first one had excellent WoM is a bit of an overstatement. WoM was good but not outstanding. I think that the amazing legs were a result of the fanbase coming out slowly because people didnt really know what it was all about. And even for those who liked it a lot, I am not sure whether it sustained much interest for the first. The general consensus with those I spoke was "it was a fun movie, but not harry potter".

I think the key will be what the second one will be about. Bringing back dumbledore is a pro but we have to wait for more details and well Jude Law is not a huge name... The trailer will be a good indicator.

Fantastic Beasts will have more brand name value for sure as well but not big enough outside of the fan base at least domestically.

Generally I believe that we can expect anything from a decline (700m WW) to an increase (900m WW). 

It will be determined by how good the movie and the plotline will be because the first one was just an introduction. Where the franchise is going to go will be presented in  this one..

[YM!]

Still think Beasts 2 will do $85M/$220M/$800M it has to deal with Mulan, Phoenix, Grinch, and WIR2 which is way to much competition.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, bakedoffmy98 said:

3 of which are wildcard animation films, 1 of which is a near remake from a franchise that's done horribly at the box office as of late, one of which is totally irrelevant. 

 

None of of these look like they spell any sort of trouble for Beasts. Which was more than happy to beat Doctor Strange's ass a few notches down when it released for the first time last year. 

Mulan is straight up Live Action was massive China appeal, seems very likely for $650M-$900M. TJB almost did $1B, Also Beast did $1.2B, and is Emma Watson's highest grossing movie domestic (not DH2). Grinch is an Illumination movie based of a beloved book, Sing did $270M last year domestic with about $600M WW. WIR2 is a wild card but WDAS has been on fire recently. Dark Phoenix is another Xmen movie. 3/4 of these has PLFs and IMAX all 4 have 3D. Beasts barely outgrossed Strange. Although internationally Beasts 2 will do great, domestically it'll likely stay flat or decrease.

Edited May 23, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, bakedoffmy98 said:

Mulan is the only one posing a fucking challenge. WIR2 (whatever the hell that is) does not sound like it at all poses a threat, Sing did grosses much less than Beasts, Beasts was the 7th highest grosser of the year, Strange did not place, and I love how you decide to try to shade Potter by excitedly pointing out how DHP2 IS NOT HER HIGHEST GROSSING FILM...UH, it was much more highly acclaimed and was still a bil grosser in 2011, and she wasn't a candy ass Disney princess in that one, so, I like it more...and X-men films have not been doing well, not a threat, sorry. 

I was talking about domestic numbers for Beasts 2 not WW. Beasts will be a beast (pun intended) OS but has a lot of competition domestic, it needs about $300M domestic for $900M WW, I don't think domestic wise it'll have what it takes.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, bakedoffmy98 said:

I don't see why it wouldn't though. Still.

If we used the same DOM/OS split for Beasts 2 as Beasts 1, it'd need $260M+ domestic at the minimum to reach $900M Worldwide. Made a slight miscalculation on the amount domestic needed and I'm assuming the ER doesn't get worse.

November 2nd: Mulan will likely do $250M-$350M domestic, and with a decrease Phoenix would do $135M-$140M domestic.

November 9th: If we use Illumination domestic average, Grinch would reach about $270M domestic maybe a bit higher considering how big the Grinch is and how dry the market is for family movies.

November 16th: Assuming Beasts 2 increases OW ($80M-$90M), it need about 2.9x multiple considering the high end. However given the nature of sequels I expect it to be a bit more frontloaded.

November 23rd: Wreck It Ralph 2, a WDAS feature opens in IMAX 3D and in PLF, could mean a slightly bigger drop in second weekend. Using WDAS average it'd be at $193M domestic, However thinking WIR2 might be a bit more like TLBM than TS2.

 

December also has a lot more potential bigger hits than 2016, like Mortal Engines, Aquaman, Animated Spider-Man and Mary Poppins Returns compared to Rogue One, Sing, and Passengers. That's also assuming Han Solo doesn't move.

Edited May 23, 2017 by YourMother

[robertman2]

@Tele Came Back guess who

[FantasticBeasts]

58 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If we used the same DOM/OS split for Beasts 2 as Beasts 1, it'd need $260M+ domestic at the minimum to reach $900M Worldwide. Made a slight miscalculation on the amount domestic needed and I'm assuming the ER doesn't get worse.

November 2nd: Mulan will likely do $250M-$350M domestic, and with a decrease Phoenix would do $135M-$140M domestic.

November 9th: If we use Illumination domestic average, Grinch would reach about $270M domestic maybe a bit higher considering how big the Grinch is and how dry the market is for family movies.

November 16th: Assuming Beasts 2 increases OW ($80M-$90M), it need about 2.9x multiple considering the high end. However given the nature of sequels I expect it to be a bit more frontloaded.

November 23rd: Wreck It Ralph 2, a WDAS feature opens in IMAX 3D and in PLF, could mean a slightly bigger drop in second weekend. Using WDAS average it'd be at $193M domestic, However thinking WIR2 might be a bit more like TLBM than TS2.

 

December also has a lot more potential bigger hits than 2016, like Mortal Engines, Aquaman, Animated Spider-Man and Mary Poppins Returns compared to Rogue One, Sing, and Passengers. That's also assuming Han Solo doesn't move.

I understand where you are coming frim but I believe that competition will not be the determining factor for this.

First of all, keep in mind that the first one had also a lot of competitio and yet it managed to have phenomenal legs for a November release.

Moana didn't hurt this at all, it had an outstanding Thanksgiving hold, the reason being that FB's audience was far older so animation is not straight up competition. 

It also had good late legs, not affected much by Rogue One which was far bigger than any of those movies.

FB's gross will be solely based on the fan base. It won't have as its target audience people not familiar with the potterverse so the competition won't affect this very much.

The real challenge will be to mobilize the fan base because with the first one there were a lot of fans who were very hesitant and didn't come up or came up very lately..

I think that the fan base is loyal enough to keep this over $700m but in order for this to increase a great marketing (focusing the return of Dumbledore) as well as a good movie will be needed.

As soon as you get those, people will come because we are talking about loyal fans and not random people doubting between this and X Men.

[Dementeleus]

Please don't engage dcasey. Just report his post or alert one of the online mods.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I understand where you are coming frim but I believe that competition will not be the determining factor for this.

First of all, keep in mind that the first one had also a lot of competitio and yet it managed to have phenomenal legs for a November release.

Moana didn't hurt this at all, it had an outstanding Thanksgiving hold, the reason being that FB's audience was far older so animation is not straight up competition. 

It also had good late legs, not affected much by Rogue One which was far bigger than any of those movies.

FB's gross will be solely based on the fan base. It won't have as its target audience people not familiar with the potterverse so the competition won't affect this very much.

The real challenge will be to mobilize the fan base because with the first one there were a lot of fans who were very hesitant and didn't come up or came up very lately..

I think that the fan base is loyal enough to keep this over $700m but in order for this to increase a great marketing (focusing the return of Dumbledore) as well as a good movie will be needed.

As soon as you get those, people will come because we are talking about loyal fans and not random people doubting between this and X Men.

Of course I am still seeing $800M-$850M WW but not $900M WW.

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Of course I am still seeing $800M-$850M WW but not $900M WW.

Well yeah.. Fair enough.

Still a long way to go with no clue so far.

 

[Kalo]

Updated predictions

1. Avengers: Infinity War $210/$535m
2. Han Solo $190/$225m/$485m
3. The Incredibles 2 $140m/$450m
4. Jurassic World 2 $170/$425m
5. Black Panther $130/$335m
6. Deadpool 2 $130/$325m
7. Mulan $85/$280m
8. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch $70/$270m
9. Mary Poppins Returns $65/$250m
10. Ready Player One $75/$225m
11. Aquaman $70/$225m
12. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 $60/$220m
13. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them 2 $70m/$210m
14. Mortal Engines $55/$200m
15. Mission Impossible 6 $60/$180m
16. Ant-Man and the Wasp $70/$175m
17. A Wrinkle in Time $60m/$175m
18. Animated Spider-Man $45/$170m
19. Tomb Raider $65/$165m
20. Jungle Book: Origins $55/$160m
21. Transformers 6 $55/$150m
22. Venom $60/$150m
23. Dark Phoenix $55/$145m 
24. Hotel Transylvania 3 $45/$140m
25. New Mutants $45/$135m
26. Bad Boys for Life $35/$135m
27. First Man $30/$125m
28. Peter Rabbit $35/$125m
29. Skyscraper $37/$120m
30. Holmes and Watson $32/$115m
31. Mamma Mia!: Here we go again $32/$110m
32. Red Sparrow $35/$110m
33. Ocean's 8 $33/$105m
34. A Star is Born $20/$100m
35. The Predator $30/$85m
36. Fifty Shades Freed $40/$82m
37. Bohemian Rhapsody $20/$80m
38. Barbie $25/$80m
39. Pacific Rim 2 $25/$75m
40. Maze Runner: The Death Cure $25/70m

 

Edited June 7, 2017 by Kalo

[raegr]

I can honestly see 900 or 1 Billion for Aquaman, especially if JL breaks out. I think Aquaman will have the Iron Man 3 effect!

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk

[YM!]

45 minutes ago, raegr said:

I can honestly see 900 or 1 Billion for Aquaman, especially if JL breaks out. I think Aquaman will have the Iron Man 3 effect!

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk
 

If the visuals and 3D is good, and Aquaman is loved in JL, $1B could happen.

[YM!]

1.) Amusement Park $350M OW/$1B (obviously a joke)

1.) Infinity War $210M/$520M

2.) The Incredibles 2 $145M/$465M

3.) Jurassic World 2 $190M/$460M

4.) Han Solo $130M/$400M

5.) Black Panther $120M/$360M

6.) Aquaman $100M/$330M

7.) Dead2ool $140M/$320M

8.) Grinch $80M/$315M

9.) Ready Player One/Mulan $90M/$275M

10.) New Mutants $105M/$260M

11.) Mortal Engines $85M/$250M

12.) Fantastic Beasts 2 $80M/$230M

13.) Animated Spider-Man $30M 3 Day/$55M 5 Day/$220M

14.) Ant Man and The Wasp/Wrinkle In Time $75M/$215M

15.) Mission Impossible 6/Alita: Battle Angel $65M/$200M

15.) Wreck It Ralph 2 $40M 3 Day/$65M 5 Day/$200M

16.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $55M/$180M

17.) Venom $75M/$175M

17.) Dark Phoenix $65M/$175M

18.) Rampage $55M/$160M

18.) Tomb Raider $65M/$160M

19.) Bumblebee/The Predator $65M/$150M

19.) Fifty Shades Freed/Magic Camp $45M/$130M

20.) Poppins Returns $25M 3 Day/$45M 5 Day/$130M

21.) Robin Hood/The Pact/Watson and Holmes/O8 $45M/$120M

22.) Jungle Book Origins/Goosebumps 2/Amusement Park/Smallfoot $30M/$105M

23.) Peter Rabbit $25M/$90M

24.) Maze Runner: The Death Cure/Pacific Rim 2/Red Sparrow $35M ($25M)/$85M

[Eric Lasagna]

Alright...first attempt.

1. Avengers: Infinity War: $500M

2. Jurassic World 2: $475M

3. Han Solo: $410M

4. Incredibles 2: $390M

5. Grinch: $340M

6. Black Panther: $315M

7. Deadpool 2: $300M

8. Ready Player One: $285M

9. Mulan: $265M

10. Aquaman: $250M 

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp: $220M

12. Mary Poppins Returns: $210M

13. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it Ralph 2: $195M

14. Fantastic Beasts 2: $195M

15. Mission: Impossible 6: $165M

16. New Mutants: $140M

17. Rampage: $140M

18. Animated Spider-Man: $140M

19. Ocean's 8: $135M

20. Hotel Transylvania 3: $135M

21. Skyscraper: $130M

22. Venom: $130M

23. X-Men: Dark Phoneix: $130M

24. Alita: $125M

25. First Man: $125M

26. Mortal Engines: $120M

27. A Wrinkle in Time: $110M

28. Peter Rabbit: $105M

29. The Predator: $105M

30. Fifty Shades Freed: $100M

31. Bumblebee: $100M

[department store basement]

My domestic predictions

 

1. Han Solo ($500m)

2. Jurassic World 2 ($450m)

3. Avengers: Infinity War ($435m)

4. Incredibles 2 ($360m)

5. Deadpool 2 ($335m)

6. Black Panther ($295m)

7. The Grinch ($285m)

8. Mulan ($275m)

9. Aquaman ($240m)

10. Fantastic Beasts 2 ($230m)

[Gokai Red]

On 5/13/2017 at 10:14 AM, Nova said:

I'm not ready to make any predictions just yet but to be quite honest....I'm looking at Memorial Day weekend and June 1st weekend and I'm really interested in seeing how those two weekends play out. Could we get back to back $130M+ opening weekends? Or did Fox botch Deadpool's release date and it'll get crushed by the Han Solo film coming out the weekend before it. 

 

I just think it would be crazy to see a $150-160M 3 day weekend and about $180M 4 day for Han Solo, followed by like a $130-140M 3 day for Deadpool 2 literally the next weekend. Has that ever happened before? I mean usually there is at least one weekend in-between. 

 

The closest would probably be May 2007, where Spider-Man 3 opened to 151m (OW record at the time), followed two weeks later by Shrek 3 doing 121m, and then Pirates 3 the next week with 127m 3 day/153 4 day (BOM has it opening to Thursday to 13m, with a weekend gross of 114m, but today, that Thursday night figure would be rolled into the weekend numbers). Adjusted, those openings are 194m, 156m, and 164m/196m before 3D/IMAX/PLF, so it's definitely possible to see multiple mega openers opening back to back. Obviously, the reception to those three movies was not as good as their immediate predecessors, and I would like to think Han Solo and Deadpool 2 would be better received. Although if we're being honest, I am almost certain Han Solo will end up being moved to December, just like the previous 3 Star Wars movies before it.