KGator Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Wow, what an international disaster. I didn't think it was a great movie by any stretch but I still enjoyed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Valerian is not an international disaster it's a disaster in the english spekaing countries (UK, USA/canada and Australia who considers themselves as the center of the world) where the critics and local distributors doesn't accept the concurrence of a "french produced" blockbuster. Valerian was first at the box office in opening day/week in France, Russia, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Sweden, Turkey, and most of european eastern countires... After the week end the total gross will be around 140m $ and the film still have to be launched on huge market like : China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Argentine,.... When I see that Valerian is the "Bomb of the century" when it will make between 250m and 300m $ total Gross for a budget of 150m (after tax credit from the french state).... This year alone Ghost in the shell, Monster Trucks or King Arthur will do far worse than Valerian. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 4 hours ago, Nicoco said: for a budget of 150m (after tax credit from the french state).... Isn't capped at 30m euro the tax credit ? 197.7m-30m = 167.5m Euro no ? for a 175 to 180m net US budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Barnack said: Isn't capped at 30m euro the tax credit ? 197.7m-30m = 167.5m Euro no ? for a 175 to 180m net US budget. Budget cinfirmed by Luc Besson to french newspapper is 180 m € - 30 m € tax credit --> 150 m € but it seems that Europacorp was able to get extra tax credit from Quatar and China where the film was also funded. Anway as 90% of the film was covered by presales to distributors and as Valerian is doing great (final gross around 40m $) in France the only country where Europacorp is also is distributor... we can assume that Europacrop will make money on the film. It is confirmed by current price of Europacorp's share who has largely recovered after to drop due to US initial week-end flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Nicoco said: Budget cinfirmed by Luc Besson to french newspapper is 180 m € - 30 m € tax credit Would be curious to see that newspaper (think I found it: http://www.lejdd.fr/culture/cinema/luc-besson-sur-le-pen-jai-de-la-competence-pour-demasquer-une-mauvaise-actrice-3395120. French movie that asked for state help devis are public, no ?: http://www.profession-spectacle.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/La-production-cinématographique-en-2016.pdf I'm not sure why we would doubt the 197,47 M€ it is directly from the Centre national du cinéma. Quote we can assume that Europacrop will make money on the film It is doing well enough in France for that for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 On 24/07/2017 at 5:47 PM, marveldcfox said: According to some French users, France isn't all that interested. They are not fond of the supposed changes Besson has made and the actors portraying the lead characters. Most optimistic predictions are 20M total. Basically less than half of Lucy. Its an out and out disaster. Fake prediction. Valerian has crossed the 30m $ in France and is still n°2 at the week-end box office. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 On 24/07/2017 at 4:44 PM, marveldcfox said: I think one thing is confirmed. This is a massive bomb everywhere. If European markets are doing so poorly ( i don't think it will do more than 9 million in Germany..10M MAX) Fake prediction ! Valerian has crossed the 11.2 m $ in Germany a week ago and is still shown in a lot of theaters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Here is a fun one think about. The blackout period for China ends this Friday with the releases of Cars 3, Baby Driver, and Valerian? Predicts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGator Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 On 8/20/2017 at 9:20 AM, Nicoco said: Valerian is not an international disaster it's a disaster in the english spekaing countries (UK, USA/canada and Australia who considers themselves as the center of the world) where the critics and local distributors doesn't accept the concurrence of a "french produced" blockbuster. Valerian was first at the box office in opening day/week in France, Russia, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Sweden, Turkey, and most of european eastern countires... After the week end the total gross will be around 140m $ and the film still have to be launched on huge market like : China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Argentine,.... When I see that Valerian is the "Bomb of the century" when it will make between 250m and 300m $ total Gross for a budget of 150m (after tax credit from the french state).... This year alone Ghost in the shell, Monster Trucks or King Arthur will do far worse than Valerian. I appreciate your blind devotion to this film. I too was hoping it would be a success. However, the writing is on the wall. We already know that it is somewhere between a financial and box office disappointment and unmitigated disaster. The question isn't how much money the film will make it is how much it will lose. This film was intended to kickstart a series of movies with the same characters. Instead it will be known as the movie that served as a warning about created high budget and bloated Sci Fi movies on properties with only regional popularity. If you want to convince us this is REALLY a success just let us know when they will announce the sequel. And no one who follows budgets would ever claim that making $250-300 million dollars on a movie with a budget of $150 million Euros ($175 million) is a good return. Especially if a large portion of your box office comes from countries like China where you get a much lower percentage of the box office revenue. And that's assuming it even does well in China . . . which does not seem likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlborn Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, Matrix4You said: Here is a fun one think about. The blackout period for China ends this Friday with the releases of Cars 3, Baby Driver, and Valerian? Predicts? According to the pre-sale thread in the Chinese sub-forum Valerian should be making 25-30m dollars OW for a 50m-60m total over there. Baby Driver seems to have a little more potential but might end up with around the same numbers. Edited August 21, 2017 by Arlborn 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 5 hours ago, KGator said: I appreciate your blind devotion to this film. I too was hoping it would be a success. However, the writing is on the wall. We already know that it is somewhere between a financial and box office disappointment and unmitigated disaster. The question isn't how much money the film will make it is how much it will lose. This film was intended to kickstart a series of movies with the same characters. Instead it will be known as the movie that served as a warning about created high budget and bloated Sci Fi movies on properties with only regional popularity. If you want to convince us this is REALLY a success just let us know when they will announce the sequel. And no one who follows budgets would ever claim that making $250-300 million dollars on a movie with a budget of $150 million Euros ($175 million) is a good return. Especially if a large portion of your box office comes from countries like China where you get a much lower percentage of the box office revenue. And that's assuming it even does well in China . . . which does not seem likely. I think you should read my post and then come back with an appropriate comment.... Where did I mention that Valerian is a huge success and will open a Franchise ? I'm just reacting to people over-reacting to the failure of Valerian and making this film the "biggest bomb in the history" or a "International disaster".... The direct consequences for Europacorp are only reputational... as the film was covered by international presales to distributors and as Europacorp is only distributor in France (where the film is a succes) Europacorp will most probably make money on the film (but distributors like STX, Lionsgate,... will most probably face limited losses depending on the marketing cost). If you look at the Europacorp's share it is slowly recovering her level before the US release. So I think that some people on this forum needs to think a little bit before over-reacting like teenagers because initial figures are not so good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 4 hours ago, Arlborn said: According to the pre-sale thread in the Chinese sub-forum Valerian should be making 25-30m dollars OW for a 50m-60m total over there. Baby Driver seems to have a little more potential but might end up with around the same numbers. Presales for opening day today at 10pm Valerian: 644K $ BD: 409K$ Cars 3: 172K $ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, Nicoco said: I think you should read my post and then come back with an appropriate comment.... Where did I mention that Valerian is a huge success and will open a Franchise ? I'm just reacting to people over-reacting to the failure of Valerian and making this film the "biggest bomb in the history" or a "International disaster".... The direct consequences for Europacorp are only reputational... as the film was covered by international presales to distributors and as Europacorp is only distributor in France (where the film is a succes) Europacorp will most probably make money on the film (but distributors like STX, Lionsgate,... will most probably face limited losses depending on the marketing cost). If you look at the Europacorp's share it is slowly recovering her level before the US release. So I think that some people on this forum needs to think a little bit before over-reacting like teenagers because initial figures are not so good... According to Deadline Europacorp paid at least $40 mln for marketing in USA. And they will get $20 mln at most and have to pay distribution fee to STX. Already at least 20 mln loss. Don't you remember how The Golden Compass with the same strategy killed New Line Cinema? And that movie grossed close to $400 mln worldwide with similar budget. And I think the whole "most of the budget covered via presales" is a bullshit. That means that every distributor from a major market like UK, Germany , Russia or Japan should have paid at least $4-6 mln. No one in right mind would do it. And if they really did it they losses would be horrendous. Just imagine that 90% of foreign distributors will lose money thanks to Besson and his passion movie. Even if somehow Europacorp survives that mess they wont make such an expensive movie for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, juni78ukr said: According to Deadline Europacorp paid at least $40 mln for marketing in USA. And they will get $20 mln at most and have to pay distribution fee to STX. Already at least 20 mln loss. Don't you remember how The Golden Compass with the same strategy killed New Line Cinema? And that movie grossed close to $400 mln worldwide with similar budget. And I think the whole "most of the budget covered via presales" is a bullshit. That means that every distributor from a major market like UK, Germany , Russia or Japan should have paid at least $4-6 mln. No one in right mind would do it. And if they really did it they losses would be horrendous. Just imagine that 90% of foreign distributors will lose money thanks to Besson and his passion movie. Even if somehow Europacorp survives that mess they wont make such an expensive movie for a long time. Variety and Deadlines are US propaganda bullshit and are stating everything and the countrary to bash the movie. Main investors for the film are : - Orange (main TV and telecom operator in France) --> for french TV "Première" and use of Valerian marketing for selling their products - BNP Paribas (French Bank) --> for use of Valerian marketing (goodies , TV spot and pictures and Credit cards) - Fundamental (Chinese distributor) - Qatari Gulf Film (qatar distrubutor) --> because in France Qatar is ready to spend millions in order to get visibility... (they spend 220m€ to by Neymar Junior for the Paris Saint Germain and they own a huge part of the building in the city center of Paris) Again Europacorp will certainly not produce a sequel because it's NOT a commercial success (altough Besson just stated that if the film reach 300m$ global he will do Valerian 2) but Europacorp still have some Franchises like Taxi (highly popular in France), Taken (TV show under production) or Lucy that represents a value for investors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, juni78ukr said: And I think the whole "most of the budget covered via presales" is a bullshit Would have been hard to get that bank loan to finance it if they didn't presales at least 80% of that net production cost. Pre-sales are not only foreign market in the French system, French TV stations also pre-buy an portion of what they expect your movie will cost them and give it to movie production in advance to help to make possible the production. That is a strong policy for Eurocorp to achieve a 80/85% coverage of the cost pre-release via international market pre-sales + tv pre-sales + tax credits in general not just for Valerian in particular, and outside the studio system it is also the norm to finance movie like that. It is really hard to go to a bank get a loan for your movie without those (and you will need some rich venture capitalist help you). Europa Corps total annual spending on movie/tv production (year being mars to mars, in Euro) has no spike indicating spending most of a single 197m movie (they released/made after 2014 at least 15 movies/3 tv series and 2 tv movie other than Valerian during that time frame): 2012: 99.7m 2013: 51.8m 2013: 77.19 m 2014: 120.922 m 2015: 102.87m 2016: 176m 2017: 133.7m Annual global pre-coverage of production budget cost (Some year's they went over 100%): 2013-2014: 85% 2014-2015: 107% 2015-2016: 101% 2016-2017: 70% Internationales annual sales: 2011: 34 909 2012: 73 857 2013: 71 725 2014:112 045 2015: 95 747 2016: 55 497 2017: 48 820 He could downplay the situation (the 80-90% is maybe more 70%), but I would imagine that it was mostly pre-sold like their entire annual slate is. If that was complete bullshit it would show in those annual report no?: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/secdocuments.aspx?symbol=ecp&country=fra For everyone to see. Edited August 21, 2017 by Barnack 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Awesome post. @Barnack is definitely among the best posters at BOT. Still this movie is a disappointment though it was hardly surprising. It would be ridiculous to make a sequel to this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 (edited) Don't forget also that belgian production company "Belga film" is co-producer of the movie which means that they benefits from the Tax Shelter system in Belgium which allows producer/invester to get tax credit up to 310% of their initial investement. In this system investor don't care about the commercial success of the movies (90% are not sucessfull) they only care about tax credit. The bigger the investment is --> the higher the tax credit. It seems that up to 20% of Valerian's Budget was funded via this system. https://www.nagelmackers.be/fr/notre-vision/actualites/detail/le-tax-shelter-est-il-interessant-pour-votre-societe http://www.belgafilms.be/ Edited August 22, 2017 by Nicoco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 On 21/08/2017 at 1:48 AM, Barnack said: Would be curious to see that newspaper (think I found it: http://www.lejdd.fr/culture/cinema/luc-besson-sur-le-pen-jai-de-la-competence-pour-demasquer-une-mauvaise-actrice-3395120. French movie that asked for state help devis are public, no ?: http://www.profession-spectacle.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/La-production-cinématographique-en-2016.pdf I'm not sure why we would doubt the 197,47 M€ it is directly from the Centre national du cinéma. It is doing well enough in France for that for sure See my former post. Valerian was also funded by Tax Shelter sytsem in Belgium via Belag Film Fund (could be up to 30m €). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicoco Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Awesome post. @Barnack is definitely among the best posters at BOT. Still this movie is a disappointment though it was hardly surprising. It would be ridiculous to make a sequel to this. Wouldn't be so sure... rember the flop of "Arthur and the invisibles" ? Well Luc Besson did 2 sequels (even more unsucessfull).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGator Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 17 hours ago, Nicoco said: I think you should read my post and then come back with an appropriate comment.... Where did I mention that Valerian is a huge success and will open a Franchise ? I'm just reacting to people over-reacting to the failure of Valerian and making this film the "biggest bomb in the history" or a "International disaster".... The direct consequences for Europacorp are only reputational... as the film was covered by international presales to distributors and as Europacorp is only distributor in France (where the film is a succes) Europacorp will most probably make money on the film (but distributors like STX, Lionsgate,... will most probably face limited losses depending on the marketing cost). If you look at the Europacorp's share it is slowly recovering her level before the US release. So I think that some people on this forum needs to think a little bit before over-reacting like teenagers because initial figures are not so good... You are being very generous. The only consequences are reputational??? First off, the actual contracts are not public knowledge so the details are mere speculation and no publicly shared company is going to admit how bad something is for fear of hurting their stock. Public statements from different parties seem to indicate that Europacorp is actually on the hook for the marketing portion in some countries (which can be considerable in today's market). But nonetheless, when you are attempting to forge future contracts with entities who have lost money when dealing with you before . . . good luck. The damage will be significant when trying to raise capital for future project, trying to distribute future films, etc. For a smaller, independent studio those kinds of relationships are life and death. And to clarify, the "initial" figures were bad. The subsequent figures were poor. Where is the big success? France? It is doing fine in France even if it is not doing as well as Beeson's Lucy after the same release time. Now if Valerian had a budget closer to Valerian, it wouldn't be considered a flop. It isn't "the biggest bomb in history" but it's international take is disastrous when compared to what was expected and what was needed to make this profitable (after collapsing in the North American market). It doesn't look to make even close to what Lucy made despite costing over 4 times as much to make. So I'm not sure what your position here is. Mine is simply that this movie is not doing well, is going to lose money for a lot of people and will be one of the bigger disappointments of 2017. If you disagree with me, fine. Feel free to state why you do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...