The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Joyous Legion]

Now for the serious post — nutty. That is even above what I was hoping for before Mon disappointed. I think TROS and EG comps will end up mid 50s, 2021 stuff ~41, people will have to interpret that as they will 😆

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Couldn’t even hit 2k… 😘

'

Be glad I didn't give you a Willie right there.  👍

 

===

 

For the record, I was mostly joking with my last post.  I mean, "I swear to Lucas" was a bit of a tell, I thought. 

 

Still, I went back and checked and @Multiverse of XXR's original forecast was for 1679 tickets sold, which is right in the ballpark. 

 

But then he got himself all hyped up and started expecting 1750+ tickets.  And, well, let's just say I wanted to head off that sort of commentary at the pass.  Especially after last night when I saw a 950 ticket sold day being described as "coming down to earth".    Which, c'mon now.  

Edited December 15, 2021 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Especially after last night when I saw a 950 ticket sold day being described as "coming down to earth".    Which, c'mon now.  

Well, the relative pace vs comps normalized a lot on Mon. Completely expected under the circumstances, but still      
 

Today has deals and review boost, but quite a nice boost nonetheless.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[Cap]

I wasn't going to do another update until Thursday, but Mom today was like "So when am **I** going to see Spider-Man, or is this weekend just you and your friends?"  Which resulted me in informing her the IMAX was sold out this weekend**, so, it's just gonna be me!! No movie for you this week!  It's what you get for not going to WSS with me this evening!

 

** I don't know if it's a technical glitch or now, but on the PHONE it showed the IMAX also sold out/can't buy tickets for the ENTIRE WEEKEND.  When I got onto the computer, it should that there were still tickets available.  I used the data from the computer.

 

Anyway, while I was on the website, I figured why not:

 

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME NEW ENGLAND REPORT

 

REGAL FOX RUN	Available	Sold	Percent	Showings	+ Sales	+ Shows
REGAL TOTAL	1234	989	64.11%	8	+ 353	+ 4
FLAGSHIP	Available	Sold	Percent	Showings	+ Sales	+ Shows
FLAGSHIP TOTAL	662	468	70.69%	8	+ 214	+2
APPLE CINEMAS	Available	Sold	Percent	Showings	+ Sales	+ Shows
CT - Barkhamsted	879	188	16.51%	9	+ 99	4
CT - Lux Dine Hartford	770	187	24.28%	9	+ 135	4
CT - Simsbury	806	366	45.40%	7	+ 191	0
CT - Torrington	589	134	22.75%	9	+ 61	4
CT - Waterbury	680	312	45.88%	6	+ 102	2
CT - Xtreme Hartford	1105	250	22.62%	8	+ 123	2
ME - Cinemagic	1016	476	46.85%	8	+ 64	0
ME - Westbrook	2141	395	18.45%	7	+ 220	7
MA - Cambridge	919	583	63.43%	11	+ 274	5
NH - Hooksett IMAX	1228	653	53.17%	7	+ 179	8
NH - Merrimack	1877	407	21.68%	5	+ 214	5
APPLE TOTAL	12,010	3951	32.89%	86	+ 1662	41
REGION TOTAL	13,906	3247	23.35%	102	+ 2229	47

 

 

COMPS

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
v Final Sales Comps
Regal - Fox Run Mall
Widow		29.94M
Shang Chi		21.49M
No Time To Die		35.60M
Dune		24.25M
Eternals		31.74M
Falmouth Flagship
Widow		24.51M
Shang Chi		26.74M
No Time To Die		26.09M
Dune		22.10M
Eternals		N/A
CINEMAGIC
Endgame - First Day		25.09M
Endgame - Last Day		13.51M
TROS - First Day		22.93M

 

It's kind of a cheat, cause thanks to comps in other regions, and other trackers, so we know the final number will be waaaaaay higher; alas, the old white people in New England aren't going full ham yet.  Even though the theaters are.  Added 41 showings.  LMFAO.  Good for them.

 

I think the only definitive thing you can say is I can't underscore how MASSIVE Endgame was up here.  It sold 1138 tickets on day one, 2113 total, and Spidey's No Way Close to that.  The GOOD thing is there's TONS of room for growth, and my area is NOTORIOUS with walk ups.  It's partly why I don't track every day.  Tends on to be feast (Day One, Last 24 Horus) or Famine (The rest of the run). 

[XXR & Friends]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

'

Be glad I didn't give you a Willie right there.  👍

 

===

 

For the record, I was mostly joking with my last post.  I mean, "I swear to Lucas" was a bit of a tell, I thought. 

 

Still, I went back and checked and @Multiverse of XXR's original forecast was for 1679 tickets sold, which is right in the ballpark. 

 

But then he got himself all hyped up and started expecting 1750+ tickets.  And, well, let's just say I wanted to head off that sort of commentary at the pass.  Especially after last night when I saw a 950 ticket sold day being described as "coming down to earth".    Which, c'mon now.  

FTR, I was just going off the math! Sacto coming in with a piddling +80% isn’t my fault 🤣

 

My target for your T-1 update is 2203, so let’s see how that goes  

[ZackM]

On 12/13/2021 at 9:27 AM, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00

Yesterday's Friday numbers were clearly off for some reason, so I'm quoting data from 2 days ago instead.

 

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 8,630

Sold - 579,915

Total - 1,456,989

ATP - $14.80

[Joyous Legion]

25 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Yesterday's Friday numbers were clearly off for some reason, so I'm quoting data from 2 days ago instead.

 

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 8,630

Sold - 579,915

Total - 1,456,989

ATP - $14.80

Wow, 66k in just one day 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Wow, 66k in just one day 

😛

[keysersoze123]

On 12/13/2021 at 7:13 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-9)

MTC1 - 43221/284818 663250.61 1646 shows 

 

This is few hours less than 2 days. 

Matrix Resurrections OD(T-8)

MTC1 - 46941/345558 715463.87 2133 shows

 

This is as of night yesterday. At last having good growth in show count.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-8	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	426	34	7.18%
		Phoenix	6	24	3,343	443	36	13.25%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	569	47	16.18%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		19	86	12,790	1,438	117	11.24%

 

T-8 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 4.2x (17.24m)

NTTD - 2.44x (12.7m)

Dune - 1.935x (9.87m)

SC - 1.323x (11.64m)

Avg -  12.86m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-7	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	36	6,111	474	48	7.76%
		Phoenix	7	41	4,690	497	54	10.60%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,516	604	35	17.18%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		20	106	14,317	1,575	137	11.00%

 

20 new shows added yesterday, including the RoadHouse theater that always goes up a week before release. 

 

T-7 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.98x (16.31m)

NTTD - 2.3x (11.94m)

Dune - 1.92x (9.77m)

SC - 1.35x (11.86m)

 

Avg - 12.47m OD

[Eric is Quiet]

Sorry for the long delay, but it's finally here.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-2	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	159	23,064	7,780	487	33.73%
		Phoenix	7	170	21,656	10,655	705	49.20%
		Raleigh	8	104	11,302	7,169	472	63.43%
	Spider-Man Total		22	433	56,022	25,604	1,664	45.70%

 

We're very close to all three markets passing BW T-1 hour total sales.  

 

T-2 increase % comps

 

Spider - 6.95%

BW - 14.1%

SC - 15.3%

Eternals - 13.51%

 

Quick check-in on T-2 sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.27x (82.71m)

SC -  12.22x (107.55m)

Eternals - 8.49x (80.62m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.48x (45.91m)

SC -  6.25x (54.97m)

Eternals - 4.77x (45.28m)

 

Average projected forecast =

  Reveal hidden contents

62.49m! 

 

 

I wasn't expecting to have to expand my bounds after one day.  The comps all had their final down day coming up, but with the sales happening today, I don't know if that will happen for Spider-Man.  One thing I want to mention again (and probably should leave in every day instead of mentioning it once a week) is that Jacksonville added a new Cinemark between Shang-Chi and Eternals.  It shouldn't throw off the % change comps, but it adds capacity and sales.

 

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $335,405 (13.10 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

I'm starting to wonder if this will get as low as BW in overall ATP. 

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	22,258	86.99%	$299,504.11	13.46
	Y	3,330	13.01%	$35,702.06	10.72

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	8,304	32.45%	$134,337.10	16.18
	Standard	17,284	67.55%	$200,869.07	11.62

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	14,630	57.18%	$185,080.13	12.65
	Cinemark	6,207	24.26%	$89,110.35	14.36
	CMX	32	0.13%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	3,976	15.54%	$52,682.68	13.25
	RoadHouse	521	2.04%	$5,466.83	10.49
	Sun-Ray	222	0.87%	$2,386.50	10.75

 

 

Here's a comparison of sales % by theater.  Comps are using the 1 hour before previews counts.  I thought this was pretty interesting - despite the extra Cinemark, they are accounting for a lower percent of sales than the previous three Marvel films.  AMCs are really showing up for this one.  I'm not sure why the totals aren't lining up exactly between the last two tables, but the difference is negligible. 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-1	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	186	25,042	8,626	846	34.45%
		Phoenix	7	170	21,656	11,446	791	52.85%
		Raleigh	8	119	12,579	7,821	652	62.18%
	Spider-Man Total		22	475	59,277	27,893	2,289	47.06%

 

It's one thing to expect this rate to continue; it's another to actually see it happen.  Another 42 shows have been added (on top of the 15 added previous day).  Despite that, the % of seats sold keeps increasing and is nearly at 50%. 

 

T-1 increase % comps

 

Spider - 8.94%

BW - 14.39%

SC - 16.9%

Eternals - 13.26%

 

Quick check-in on T-1 sales comps...

 

BW  - 5.97x (78.77m)

SC -  11.39x (100.23m)

Eternals - 8.16x (77.55m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.79x (50.01m)

SC -  6.8x (59.88m)

Eternals - 5.19x (49.33m)

 

Average projected forecast =

Spoiler

67.66m

 

Just looking at the chart below makes my head spin.  Even if flattens over the last two updates the comps would point to 60m previews.  

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $363,983(13.05 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

ATP continues to fall, so that will definitely lower the gross here.  If I factor in ATP difference in each of the forecasts, the projections moves to...

 

Spoiler

66.02m

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	24,218	86.88%	$324,778.39	13.41
	Y	3,657	13.12%	$38,980.25	10.66

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	8,743	31.37%	$141,461.80	16.18
	Standard	19,132	68.63%	$222,296.84	11.62

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	15,846	56.85%	$199,446.30	12.59
	Cinemark	6,791	24.36%	$97,039.07	14.29
	CMX	32	0.11%	$479.68	14.99
	Regal	4,439	15.92%	$58,682.26	13.22
	RoadHouse	527	1.89%	$5,531.33	10.50
	Sun-Ray	240	0.86%	$2,580.00	10.75

[Eric is Quiet]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:30 AM, Eric Osborn said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	13	240	21,416	42,914	49.90%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 17

Total Seats Added Today: 2,892

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,044

 

Comp

2.820x of Black Widow's Final Count (37.23M)

4.089x of Venom 2's Final Count (47.43M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.305x of Star Wars: TROS T-3 (52.18M)

 

Well...all that's left to say is that we still have many more shows to add tomorrow. And that's when things become real hellish for me. I'm about to post this when reviews first drop, and all I can say is...please don't be a TROS

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	288	23,563	48,623	48.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,147

 

Comp

3.103x of Black Widow's Final Count (40.96M)

4.960x of Shang-Chi's Final Count (43.64M)

4.498x of Venom 2's Final Count (52.18M)

4.467x of Eternals' Final Count (42.43M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.345x of Star Wars: TROS T-2 (53.81M)

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.79x (50.01m)

SC -  6.8x (59.88m)

Eternals - 5.19x (49.33m)

 

Average projected forecast =

  Reveal hidden contents

67.66m

 

Just looking at the chart below makes my head spin.  Even if flattens over the last two updates the comps would point to 60m previews.  

I’m really starting to get on the train that NWH could actually go over EG previews. I made it the bonus club on my NWH > TA1 DOM club but I wasn’t actually thinking it could occur. 
 

I know on other films this year, data comps to 2019 have been bad BUT NWH is about to have higher previews than every other 2021 film combined! Ok maybe not literally, I haven’t done the math but it’s gonna be a number that other 2021 comps break down against. 
 

We will see. Maybe I’m being crazy but this is gonna pull 25-35% more shows than EG had for Thursday. WOM/reactions are extremely high. I want to believe!

[Tokugennumataka]

Even if the previews come in at mid 50s, no way its missing the second best OD ever, right? 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Even if the previews come in at mid 50s, no way its missing the second best OD ever, right? 

I’d say even at $50M this should get the 2nd best full OD. WOM is going to be extremely high (going off other countries where it’s already opened). 
 

I think Friday could do +40% of Thursday. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Eric is Quiet]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:43 AM, Eric Osborn said:

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1,178	9574	12.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 102

 

Comp

0.962x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-9 (9.34M)

3.516x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (14.42M)

1.423x of Dune T-9 (7.26M)

 

 

Spoiler alert for the next one...the GIF also applies

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	1,264	11627	10.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

0.974x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-8 (9.45M)

3.292x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (13.49M)

1.466x of Dune T-8 (7.48M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/13/2021 at 10:11 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Spider-Man	A	C	R
Thu	9,391	5,826	5,993
Fri	7,804	6,634	6,354
Sat	8,036	6,760	6,315
Sun	7,552	6,381	6,095

 

A - 590

C - 311

R - 442

 

Totals

Thu - 33,989 (5,682 PLF)

Fri - 36,597 (6,853)

Sat - 37,717 (6,959)

Sun - 35,466 (6,666)

 

I'm up to 3,225 theaters reporting previews shows in US.  The most previously since I've been tracking was BW's 3,109 (ended with 23,129 shows)

Spider-Man	A	C	R
Thu	10,003	6,475	6,106
Fri	9,243	7,569	7,198
Sat	9,511	7,674	7,001
Sun	8,927	7,188	6,763

 

A - 591

C - 312

R - 443

 

Totals

Thu - 36,851 (5,768 PLF)

Fri - 44,106 (7,143)

Sat - 45,373 (7,263)

Sun - 42,715 (6,943)

Total - 169,045

 

30 new theaters added preview shows (3,255 now).   The weekend shows line up pretty well with Black Widow's final counts, but earlier previews push it over the top.

 

BW final show count sample

Thu - 23,129

Fri - 45,185

Sat - 45,889

Sun - 42,578

Total - 156,781

 

SC final show count sample

Thu - 15,697

Fri - 41,785

Sat - 43,463

Sun - 41,472

Total - 142,417

[Joyous Legion]

60 and +40% is 307 talk, XXR going off the deep end again 😛 

[Tokugennumataka]

If the OD comes in at $120M, OW should be a lock at $240M at least. Looking at the stellar reception, maybe beating BP Dom is possible? And WW-China at $1.5-1.6B?