The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

again NOONE THOUGHT , that it could do that high, we were in uncharted terrytory and the only suggestion was that we are in for something huge, but we didnt know how huge exactly

Firstly can you chill with the all caps a bit? I'm not yelling at you for your opinion so I'd appreciate it if you didn't yell at me for mine. Secondly, TS4 on the other hand is not really uncharted territory, in fact we have a very good comp in I2. Is it perfect? No, of course not. I'm actually with you that TS4 will see more walkup business/late presales than I2. But I don't think walkups will make up for the huge gap we're seeing right now, or even that close. I mean I2 had huge walkups also so it's not that easy to beat those by the margin you're suggesting. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

if i m not wrong TFA had also Over $100 M presales for the weekend ....

It had 100 million+ in total presales. Much of that (I believe I read in Deadline 40%) was not for the opening weekend. In fact, Christmas Day had higher presales for TFA than its opening Sunday.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Firstly can you chill with the all caps a bit? I'm not yelling at you for your opinion so I'd appreciate it if you didn't yell at me for mine. Secondly, TS4 on the other hand is not really uncharted territory, in fact we have a very good comp in I2. Is it perfect? No, of course not. I'm actually with you that TS4 will see more walkup business/late presales than I2. But I don't think walkups will make up for the huge gap we're seeing right now, or even that close. I mean I2 had huge walkups also so it's not that easy to beat those by the margin you're suggesting. 

i wasnt yelling, i was trying to emphasize, isnt that reason why people use caps ?

 

again if you see the pre sales, i think that toy story 4 at the moment is around 85-90% of incredibles not that hue difference

Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wasnt yelling, i was trying to emphasize, isnt that reason why people use caps ?

Oh, ok. Normally emphasis is italics while all caps is generally used in a yelling/angry tone. Sorry for misinterpreting. And to your other point the presales I'm looking at have TS4 at 63% of I2, so that probably explains the discrepancy here.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Menor

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

It had 100 million+ in total presales. Much of that (I believe I read in Deadline 40%) was not for the opening weekend. In fact, Christmas Day had higher presales for TFA than its opening Sunday.

hmmm okk.. 

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wasnt yelling, i was trying to emphasize, isnt that reason why people use caps ?

 

again if you see the pre sales, i think that toy story 4 at the moment is around 85-90% of incredibles not that hue difference

the different is not that big .. i still think TS4 final presales will be close to I2 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Oh, ok. Normally emphasis is italics while all caps is generally used in a yelling/angry tone. Sorry for misinterpreting. And to your other point the presales I'm looking at have TS4 at 63% of I2, so that probably explains the discrepancy here.

anyway all this talk is pointless for now, it depends where we both looking at , at least when i saw the presales was at 85% of i2, but again we will see, lets hope for the best,

 

 

ps i knew that caps was also used to show that someone ia anry, so its my bad too , i just didnt know how to emphasize with another way

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Oh, ok. Normally emphasis is italics while all caps is generally used in a yelling/angry tone. Sorry for misinterpreting. And to your other point the presales I'm looking at have TS4 at 63% of I2, so that probably explains the discrepancy here.

63% of I2 ... where ??? i think you are talking about a specific region .. not overall ...

[john2000]

enough with the toy story 4, lets talk about how incredible men in black is doing

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

63% of I2 ... where ??? i think you are talking about a specific region .. not overall ...

Cumulative sales on Fandango. I made a post on the previous page (or maybe it was 2 pages ago) with a daily breakdown of them.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Cumulative sales on Fandango. I made a post on the previous page (or maybe it was 2 pages ago) with a daily breakdown of them.

Oh okk..

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

enough with the toy story 4, lets talk about how incredible men in black is doing

MIB is done ...    OS previews/early numbers are tragic ..

[Porthos]

One of the problems with TS4 is that there aren't really that many direct comps for a film of this type that opens as big as it looks to be opening.  Usually this type of film as a very low preview number and it makes it up on the actual OW.

 

As I look about, when it comes to internal multis, maybe the only two actual direct good comps are 

 

Incredibles 2 (18.5m):    9.9x

Finding Dory (9.2m):    14.7x

 

Can't use Aladdin as it had an inflated Sunday.  I think using anything under 6m in previews warps it just too much, so out goes SLOP and Inside Out (and IO was 2015 which makes it iffy for other reasons).  

 

Even if you wanted to include Pika Pika (5.7m - 9.5x) and Shazam! (5.9m* - 9.1x), both of those had 4pm previews.  Speaking of Shazam! not using any of the superhero flicks or SW films either as comps, for various reasons.  

* Includes Early Access Numbers

 

Now I am admittedly not great on multis.  But given the WOM looks like it might be exceptional and that if it doesn't manage to hit I2 in previews but does around 14m-15m, around 10x to 12x seems... justifiable? 

 

And if TS4 manages to do better on Thr, say 16m+. then the lower end of the range on the multi.

 

Anyone want to take a stab at showing just how faulty my logic is here?

Edited June 14, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Cumulative sales on Fandango. I made a post on the previous page (or maybe it was 2 pages ago) with a daily breakdown of them.

an another user did the same, and the result was 85% from the first day till now, we will see different sources will give different results

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One of the problems with TS4 is that there aren't really that many direct comps for a film of this type that opens as big as it looks to be opening.  Usually this type of film as a very low preview number and it makes it up on the actual OW.

 

As I look about, when it comes to internal multis, maybe the only two actual direct good comps are 

 

Incredibles 2 (18.5m):    9.9x

Finding Dory (9.2m):    14.7x

 

Can't use Aladdin as it had an inflated Sunday.  I think using anything under 6m in previews warps it just too much, so out goes SLOP and Inside Out (and IO was 2015 which makes it iffy for other reasons).  

 

Even if you wanted to include Pika Pika (5.7m - 9.5x) and Shazam! (5.9m - 9.1x), both of those had 4pm previews.  Speaking of Shazam! not using any of the superhero flicks or SW films either as comps, for various reasons.  

 

Now I am admittedly not great on multis.  But given the WOM looks like it might be exceptional and that if it doesn't manage to hit I2 in previews but does around 14m-15m, around 10x to 12x seems... justifiable? 

 

And if TS4 manages to do better on Thr, say 16m+. then the lower end of the range on the multi.

 

Anyone want to take a stab at showing just how faulty my logic is here?

Nothing wrong with your logic here at all.  Sacramento is just overperforming Fandango right now for the previews, which is why I've been thinking lower. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

an another user did the same, and the result was 85% from the first day till now, we will see different sources will give different results

If you're talking about @CoolEric258 he does blocks of certain days e.g. day 24-day 11 (I forgot what the exact days he gave were). I've been comparing from the beginning of I2's presale run vs from the beginning of TS4's presale run (the lengths of the 2 runs were very different, but I feel like we're late enough that it should have normalized). Both approaches have their merits, I think we'll have a clearer picture next week of where exactly this is headed.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

 in fact we have a very good comp in I2. Is it perfect? No, of course not. I'm actually with you that TS4 will see more walkup business/late presales than I2. But I don't think walkups will make up for the huge gap we're seeing right now, or even that close. I mean I2 had huge walkups also so it's not that easy to beat those by the margin you're suggesting. 

My problem is I don't like having only one comp.  Think films are a bit too noisy for that.

 

Like, if I comp locally against Aladdin and Pika Pika, I get around 13m in previews.  But if I comp it against JW2 (which, incidentally, has been scary as a predictor locally barring one or two days), I get 15m in previews.

 

And as I said in my last post, there might only be two real good comps out there right now (I2 and FD).  And, for me at least, I hesitate to make too many judgements off of two pieces of data.  Especially when it comes to internal multipliers.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

My problem is I don't like having only one comp.  Think films are a bit too noisy for that.

 

Like, if I comp locally against Aladdin and Pika Pika, I get around 13m in previews.  But if I comp it against JW2 (which, incidentally, has been scary as a predictor locally barring one or two days), I get 15m in previews.

 

And as I said in my last post, there might only be two real good comps out there right now (I2 and FD).  And, for me at least, I hesitate to make too many judgements off of two pieces of data.  Especially when it comes to internal multipliers.

That's definitely true. I would love to have more comps but this is such a unique case that I don't think any comp will be even close to as good as I2 (even with that one having a few issues)

[john2000]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One of the problems with TS4 is that there aren't really that many direct comps for a film of this type that opens as big as it looks to be opening.  Usually this type of film as a very low preview number and it makes it up on the actual OW.

 

As I look about, when it comes to internal multis, maybe the only two actual direct good comps are 

 

Incredibles 2 (18.5m):    9.9x

Finding Dory (9.2m):    14.7x

 

Can't use Aladdin as it had an inflated Sunday.  I think using anything under 6m in previews warps it just too much, so out goes SLOP and Inside Out (and IO was 2015 which makes it iffy for other reasons).  

 

Even if you wanted to include Pika Pika (5.7m - 9.5x) and Shazam! (5.9m - 9.1x), both of those had 4pm previews.  Speaking of Shazam! not using any of the superhero flicks or SW films either as comps, for various reasons.  

 

Now I am admittedly not great on multis.  But given the WOM looks like it might be exceptional and that if it doesn't manage to hit I2 in previews but does around 14m-15m, around 10x to 12x seems... justifiable? 

 

And if TS4 manages to do better on Thr, say 16m+. then the lower end of the range on the multi.

 

Anyone want to take a stab at showing just how faulty my logic is here?

if the previews number is lets say 14, then with incredibles 2 multi we will have an ow of 138, if we use dorys multi we get 205 ow actually, and thats just with a 14 previews, if it can make 15-16 we are looking a lot higher, sto with a 14 previews our range is 138-205, in my opinion toy story will be somewhere in the middle , the difference between incredibles 2 and dory is big, toy story 4 as of now seems to do way better than dory and close enough to incredibles, so in my opinion  i dont think that toy story 4 will have 9.9 mutli or a 14 multi,  it will likely be more like 11 or 12 and the toy sotry as a movie seems to be more like dory than i2, so with 14 previews, and taking into account very very good wom and these 2 multis we will have an ow of  155-165 as of now, if the previes come at 15 and we use the same formula we will get  165-180 and if we use a 16 previews, we will get  176-192, and i really believe that these are not unrealistic scenarions , and so in theory toy story could really challenge 200 ow depending on wom and previews

 

PS i dont see why toy story 4 will have lower mutli than incredibles 2, as the movie seems more like a family movie, while incredibles is a family movie, its different that toy story

Edited June 14, 2019 by john2000

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Both approaches have their merits, I think we'll have a clearer picture next week of where exactly this is headed.

Right .. this is what i m talking about... we will have a clear picture next week ..

 

i m following your presales posts ...also waiting for this weekend data ...