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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

The-Numbers usually post them Thursday afternoon/night

Thank you. That site is hard to navigate. It has been around for 2 decades and has not changed that much :-). I am more interested in actual showcounts. That will provide a better picture on what Spidey will do to holdovers. 

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you. That site is hard to navigate. It has been around for 2 decades and has not changed that much :-). I am more interested in actual showcounts. That will provide a better picture on what Spidey will do to holdovers. 

I won't be able to run show counts until tomorrow morning.  Here's what I have for my US TC sample:

 

Movie - This Wk - Last Wk

 

Spider-Man - 3,323

West Side Story - 2,459 (2,479)
Encanto - 2,859 (3,015)
Ghostbusters - 2,666 (3,006)
House of Gucci - 1,495 (2,815)
Eternals - 1,567 (2,482)
Resident Evil - 587 (2,198)
Clifford - 608 (2,093)
National Champions - 812 (1,174)
Don't Look Up - 555 (655)
King Richard - 116 (1,066)
Venom 2 - 374 (831)
Being the Ricardos - 421 (462)

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Quick update on few big multiplexes in NYC for Spidey previews. @Cap may have Endgame data to share for at least empire and lincoln. 

 

Empire 25 - 8026/12016 157207.94 65 shows

Lincoln Sq - 5699/6595 123527.81 22 shows !!!

AMC 34th st - 2404/3287 50059.96 31 shows

AMC 19th st - 809/1009 14108.81 9 shows

AMC 84th st - 1273/1355 27093.27 8 shows

Kips bay - 3090/3903 64101.30 34 shows

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem - 1735/3702 26803.65 16 shows

AMC Newport 11 -2173/2252 34883.37 22 shows

AMC Orpheum 7 - 1918/2654 31365.22 10 shows

AMC Village 7 - 1059/1092 19424.51 12 shows

 

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On 12/14/2021 at 7:12 PM, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 7PM - December 14, 2021

50 show times, 2923 tickets sold (+239) 
4 private screenings sold (160 tickets equivalent)

 


Comparisons to Final Ticket Sales Tracked

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 


Comps to Final Previews
EG = $48.41M or $51.06M with private screenings
CM = $53.08M or $55.98M with private screenings
IW = $46.55M or $49.10M with private screenings 
TROS = $64.03M or $67.54M with private screenings 

 

 

Notes: Will do 2 updates on T-0 December 16th. The first will be at 230PM CST and that will account for showtimes from 3PM - 6PM. I'l do another count at 530PM for everything after 6PM. I feel like this will give me the most accurate comps. As of right now, my estimate through the 530PM update is +350. 

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home Current Number, 24 Screen Theater, 230PM - December 16, 2021

3PM - 5:55PM Shows
14 show times, 1040 tickets sold 
2 private screenings sold (80 tickets equivalent)

 


Comparisons to Final Ticket Sales Tracked

Endgame — 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold 
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold 

The Rise or Skywalker — 44 show times, 1826 tickets sold 


Comps to Final Previews
EG = $M or $M with private screenings
CM = $M or $M with private screenings
IW = $M or $M with private screenings 
TROS = $M or $M with private screenings 

 

 

Notes: Update 1 of 2. This covers shows from 3PM - 5:55PM. I will do another update at 5:30PM to cover 6PM and onward. Total shows as of 230PM is up to 58! I will not be updating my comp numbers during this round (because they wouldn't make sense). 

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13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

4

0

373

16985

42052

25067

59.61%

 

Total Sellouts Converted to Capped 

1

Total Showings Capped Today 

1

Total Showings Added Today 

5

Total Seats Added Today 

n/a*

Total Seats Sold Today 

1961

NOTE:  All showings added today were at non-reserved seating theaters.

 

T-1 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

 

   %

 

Sold T-1

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

360.99

 

1114

6944

 

0/258

25357/32301

21.50%

 

49.90m

SC

600.84

 

893

4172

 

0/188

20813/24985

16.70%

 

52.87m

V2

488.92

 

1372

5127

 

0/244

28009/33136

15.47%

 

56.71m

ET

536.53

 

739

4672

 

0/136

13796/18468

25.30%

 

50.97m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG

93.62

 

1182

22204

 

41/302

5738/27942

79.46%

 

56.17m

TROS

128.89

 

668

17462

 

11/251

9470/26932

64.84%

 

51.55m

NWH (EG adj)

---

 

1611

22250

 

0/373

13328/35578

62.54%

 

---

NWH (SW adj)

---

 

1730

23595

 

0/373

14136/37731

62.53%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       7208/13144 [54.84% sold] [+614 tickets]

Matinee:    2901/5436  [53.37% sold | 11.57% of all tickets sold]

 

=================

 

It's time.  I added the 2021 comps even though they're still waaaaaaay out of whack.  One can see that even with the great day today, NWH didn't outsell, say, SC by 6x.  So those comps are gonna go way down tomorrow.

 

Only other thing of note is that lone sellout I was highly suspicious of, briefly turned available for sale today, and I saw that it still had something like 30 tickets available for purchase.  Meanwhile another showing at that same theater was marked as "sold out" even though I knew it had around 35+ tickets left earlier today.  Then, when I did my count tonight, both were marked as sold out.  So I went ahead and decided it was capping at around 145 seats sold out of 175 available. If it was something like 10 to 15 seats, I wouldn't have cared.  But 30 seats starts to add up in a hurry, so the sellout was shifted to cap.

 

Not much else to say.  Now we wait to see what tomorrow brings.

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [11:30am - 12:40pm]

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

7

0

386

16423

42848

26425

61.67%

 

Total Net Showings Capped Since Last Night 

3

Total Showings Added Since Last Night 

13

Total Seats Added Since Last Night 

796

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night 

1358

 

T-1 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 Mid-Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW [12:00-12:55]

337.27

 

891

7835

 

0/258

24466/32301

24.26%

 

46.62m

SC [12:00-12:55]

549.83

 

634

4806

 

0/192

20644/25450

18.88%

 

48.39m

V2 [12:00-12:50]

416.60

 

1216

6343

 

0/247

27313/33656

18.85%

 

48.32m

ET [12:00-12:30]

497.27

 

642

5314

 

0/136

13154/18468

28.77%

 

47.24m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 Mid Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG [11:50-1:00]

92.43

 

1481

25248

 

79/333

5023/30271

83.41%

 

55.46m

SW9 [11:55-12:50]

131.09

 

589

18896

 

11/267

8856/27752

68.09%

 

52.44m

NWH (EG adj)

---

 

1086

23336

 

0/386

12876/36212

64.44%

 

---

NWH (SW adj)

---

 

1176

24771

 

0/386

13756/38527

64.30%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       7634/13256 [57.59% sold] [+426 tickets]

Matinee:    3225/5505  [58.58% sold | 12.20% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The Endgame comp finally, FINALLY went down.  Did start the sample slightly earlier (more because of the 3pm start time than sheer show count), but not enough to skew things all that much, IMO. Still a utterly fantastic start to the day, but not perhaps EG level fantastic.

 

As always, matinees, show counts, one market, blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Edited by Porthos
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23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [11:30am - 12:40pm]

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

7

0

386

16423

42848

26425

61.67%

 

Total Net Showings Capped Since Last Night 

3

Total Showings Added Since Last Night 

13

Total Seats Added Since Last Night 

796

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night 

1358

 

T-1 2021 Comps (aka "World One")

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 Mid-Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW [12:00-12:55]

337.27

 

891

7835

 

0/258

24466/32301

24.26%

 

46.62m

SC [12:00-12:55]

549.83

 

634

4806

 

0/192

20644/25450

18.88%

 

48.39m

V2 [12:00-12:50]

416.60

 

1216

6343

 

0/247

27313/33656

18.85%

 

48.32m

ET [12:00-12:30]

497.27

 

642

5314

 

0/136

13154/18468

28.77%

 

47.24m

* BW comp has been adjusted for the return of Ontario theaters.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp/Pre-2020 Comps (aka "World Two")  — see cautionary note below

 

   %

 

Sold T-0 Mid Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

EG [11:50-1:00]

92.43

 

1481

25248

 

79/333

5023/30271

83.41%

 

55.46m

SW9 [11:55-12:50]

131.09

 

589

18896

 

11/267

8856/27752

68.09%

 

52.44m

NWH (EG adj)

---

 

1086

23336

 

0/386

12876/36212

64.44%

 

---

NWH (SW adj)

---

 

1176

24771

 

0/386

13756/38527

64.30%

 

---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       7634/13256 [57.59% sold] [+426 tickets]

Matinee:    3225/5505  [58.58% sold | 12.20% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The Endgame comp finally, FINALLY went down.  Did start the sample slightly earlier (more because of the 3pm start time than sheer show count), but not enough to skew things all that much, IMO. Still a utterly fantastic start to the day, but not perhaps EG level fantastic.

 

As always, matinees, show counts, one market, blah blah blah blah blah blah.

So comps with Venom will also drop huge as that sold like bonkers in its final day as well. I am curious as to how close the Sacto comps work with 2021 releases as opposed to pre pandemic uber openers like Endgame/Star wars(to a smaller extent). 

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FINAL UPDATE

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME NEW ENGLAND REPORT

 

REGAL Total Sold Percent Showings
ME - Augusta 523 406 77.62% 7
NH - Hooksett 936 683 72.97% 12
NH - Fox Run 1234 1140 92.38% 12
REGAL TOTAL 2,693 2229 88.77% 31
 
FLAGSHIP Total Sold Percent Showings
FLAGSHIP TOTAL 714 599 83.89% 9
 
APPLE CINEMAS Total Sold Percent Showings
CT - Barkhamsted 879 276 31.40% 9
CT - Lux Dine Hartford 770 475 61.69% 9
CT - Simsbury 806 424 52.60% 7
CT - Torrington 589 209 35.48% 9
CT - Waterbury 680 415 61.03% 6
CT - Xtreme Hartford 1105 255 23.08% 8
ME - Cinemagic 1016 702 69.09% 8
ME - Westbrook 2141 512 23.91% 7
MA - Cambridge 919 681 74.10% 11
NH - Hooksett IMAX 1228 778 63.35% 7
NH - Merrimack 1877 520 27.70% 5
APPLE TOTAL 12,010 5247 43.68% 86
 
REGION TOTAL 15,417 8075 52.37% 126
 
  • BIIIIG Shot Out to the Queen of Walk Ups, Apples Cinemas, for selling 1296 tickets in the past like 12 hours (24.69% of their overall total!!)
  • I figured now would be the time to expand my theaters, so I added two Regals, one in Maine and one in NH.  (The other two Regals I could have added, both don't have reserved seating. :pout:)
  • SEVEN SELL OUTS - 6 at Fox Run, 1 at Flagship.  Would not be shocked if the non-Internet sales walk up fill in the rest. I had.  29 of the 128 showings were 80% full.  
  • People REALLY want to see this at 6-7PM.  The bell curve in sales is just LOL. Onto:

 

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
v Final Sales Comps
Regal - Fox Run Mall
Widow 34.51M
Shang Chi 24.77M
Eternals 36.58M
Falmouth Flagship
Widow 31.37M
Shang Chi 34.22M
CINEMAGIC IMAX
Endgame - First Day 37.01M
Endgame - Last Day 19.96M
TROS - First Day 33.83M
 
  • So the story up here is: it's no where near Endgame levels, but it's blowing everything else out of the water.  Just look at the percentage sold rates.  Crazy wild:
 
Thursday Comps
Movie Sold Total %
Regal - Fox Run Mall
Black Widow 436 858 50.81%
Shang Chi 405 780 51.92%
Venom: LTBC 231 894 25.83%
Bond 175 772 22.66%
Dune 208 707 29.42%
Eternals 296 516 57.36%
Ghostbusters 125 686 18.22%
Spidey NWH 1140 1234 92.38%
 
Thursday Comps
Movie Sold Total %
Falmouth Flagship
Black Widow 252 399 63.15%
Shang Chi 154 218 70.64%
Venom: LTBC 82 191 42.93%
Bond 113 268 42.16%
Dune 108 172 62.79%
Eternals N/A N/A N/A%
Ghostbusters 64 234 27.35%
Spidey NWH 599 714 83.89%
 
 
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update on few big multiplexes in NYC for Spidey previews. @Cap may have Endgame data to share for at least empire and lincoln. 

 

Lincoln Sq - 5699/6595 123527.81 22 shows !!!

 

 

 

Don't have Empire, but here's the Top Sellers at LS13 when I was tracking it:

 

Thursday Comps
Movie Sold Total %
Lincoln Sqaure 13
Endgame 5259 6065 86.71
The Lion King 2483 6472 38.36
Dark Phoenix 1383 2034 68
Toy Story 4 1273 3120 40.8
OUATIH 1232 2317 53.17
It Chapters 2 1174 3772  
Godzilla 1102 2124 51.88

 

It's beat Endgame by 430 ticket *** :ohmygod:

 

*** By the time I stopped tracking it.  I don't remember when I called it that weekend, cause I was too *~*~busy watching EG 5 times at LS13 that weekend~*~*~*

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9 minutes ago, Cap said:

It's beat Endgame by 430 ticket *** :ohmygod:

 

8.37% ahead in actual tickets, and I'd bet on at least 5% in ATP increase. This would point to ~$68M. I know a lot think this will drop 10-20% from 2019 comps, so lets say 20% lower and we'd still be looking at ~$54M. I'm not sure what my theater will end up pointing towards, but something about TFA true previews feels right ($53-54M). 

 

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Thursday(414 showings): 33735(+4240, +14.38%)/46099(+5115)

 

Eternals final comp: 31.91M

 

Daily pace comparison: 5.46x Eternals T-2 (+776, +10.88%)

 

T-2 days Friday(533 showings): 31925(+4721)[2 DAY INCREASE]/62018(+18898)

 

Eternals final comp: 51.96M

 

T-3 days Saturday(567 showings): 32865(+4874)[2 DAY INCREASE]/65291(+17487)

 

Eternals final comp: 53.13M

 

T-4 days Sunday(522 showings): 19779(+2530, +14.67%)/59885(+9502)

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.84x Eternals T-5 (+523, +11.89%)

 

Take the Thursday and Sunday paces with a grain of salt, especially Thursday. All the new showings with good seats are most definitely inflating the pace.

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 days Thursday(414 showings): 38811(+5076)/46099

 

Eternals final comp: 36.71M

 

T-1 days Friday(533 showings): 36953(+5028)/62018

 

Eternals final comp: 60.15M

 

T-2 days Saturday(567 showings): 37422(+4557)/65291

 

Eternals final comp: 60.50M

 

T-3 days Sunday(522 showings): 23621(+3842)/59885

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-1 days Thursday(222 showings): 25753(+1552)/47827(+1051) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 39.89M

Black Widow final comp: 41.06M

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday(268 showings): 32790(+3891)/55713(+8426) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 50.79M

Black Widow final comp: 52.28M

 

I added sellouts that I was kinda on the fence about being real or not, and I didn't really have time to investigate a bit and check how many seats they had. They were added as already sold out, so I was skeptical, but most of them were primetime slots(one being a 7:30 PM IMAX showing at one of the top theaters), so I just went ahead and added them. This is reflected in the daily increase. I'll have my thoughts about the numbers with the Denver update

 

Also I'll post the FSS numbers after my NWH showing. I need to update those with the sellouts.

Edited by Inceptionzq
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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2850 4221 67.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2789 4961 56.22%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
19267 1650 40223 47.90% 15 303

 

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 639

 

AMCs sold 9183
Cinemarks sold 3568
Regals sold 4043
Harkins sold 2473

 

Eternals final comp: 41.11M

Shang-Chi final comp: 42.02M

Black Widow final comp: 39.98M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 44.29M

 

Adjusted TRoS T-1 comp: 49.85M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

33% pace increase from yesterday... Really good

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 3209 4333 74.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 3192 5118 62.37%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
23158 3891 41411 55.92% 15 325

 

Showings added: 22

Seats added: 1188

 

AMCs sold 10552
Cinemarks sold 4043
Regals sold 5307
Harkins sold 3256

 

Eternals final comp: 49.42M

Shang-Chi final comp: 50.51M

Adjusted Black Widow final comp: 50.31M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 52.06M

 

shocked jurassic park GIF

 

I know I just used this gif the other day, but this really deserves it. WOW. Almost 4K in less than 24 hours. Over double the increase of yesterday. I did not expect this. Drafthouse is probably gonna underindex for Thursday, so I'm not gonna worry about that comp. Between this and Megaplex, I am fully on the 50M train. I had my doubts, but this is amazing. I adjusted Black Widow up by dividing by .955, and didn't end up adjusting for TRoS because I wasn't sure by how much to do it. But it's close enough. Considering this explosive last day, plus the 3PM start anyways, I'll assume that walkups will be great. 52M

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