Which Fall Oscar hopeful specialty title will make the most?

[filmlover]

Note that I left out a few choice titles because they are either wide releases with box office aspirations that will start in limited release (All the Money in the World, The Disaster Artist, The Post) or won't factor at all due to meh/lousy reviews (Breathe, Last Flag Flying, The Current War). Everything else will start in limited release and expand from there.

[WrathOfHan]

The Shape of Water: 120M

Darkest Hour: 70M

Three Billboards: 60M

I, Tonya: 50M

Lady Bird: 40M

Call Me by Your Name: 15M

The Florida Project: 10M

PTA's Joint: 10M

[raegr]

The Shape of Water no doubt. I see a smaller scale Hidden Figures thing going one here. 

[filmlover]

Just noticed I forgot to include Wonder Wheel (Amazon, 12/1) on the poll but won't update it since this is Amazon's first crack at distribution and we don't know what the movie's reception will be yet (and you never know what you'll get with Woody until the film is seen).

[Barnack]

Felt like I Tonya could have been a candidate, but with how little the distributor were ready to buy it after seeing it and with Battle of the sexes opening weekend, I was maybe too optimistic on this.

 

Del Toro track record is not an optimistic one and depending how weird the title end up to be, I'm not sure how much more than 31m Crimson Peak is movie is certain to make. Doubling that would be great.

 

Darkest hours seem like a good candidate, could see a 70m a la bridge of Spies happen over a 60-65 Shape of Water.

[John Marston]

none. They will all make little money. Like 40m at best

 

 

this looks like a pretty weak year. Wouldn't be surprised if a movie like Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049 ends up winning Best Picture

Edited October 2, 2017 by John Marston

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

none. They will all make little money. Like 40m at best

so none will make the most money? how does that work? they all make the same amount?

[That One Girl]

Honestly I'm pretty neck and neck with Three Billboards and Shape of Water rn.  I have the former at 70M and the latter at 77M

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

none. They will all make little money. Like 40m at best

 

 

this looks like a pretty weak year. Wouldn't be surprised if a movie like Dunkirk or Blade Runner 2049 ends up winning Best Picture

Yes, because the movie that makes the most always wins Best Picture. *looks at the grosses of the past several Best Picture winners* Oh wait...

[Alli]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Shape of Water: 120M | No way. I say 70M

Darkest Hour: 70M      | 10M

Three Billboards: 60M  |   40M

I, Tonya: 50M    |25M

Lady Bird: 40M  | 25

Call Me by Your Name: 15M

The Florida Project: 10M

PTA's Joint: 10M

 

[CoolioD1]

i think either shape of water or darkest hour i can see both making around 60 if they do well at the award shows..

[MCKillswitch123]

Definitely The Shape Of Water. Del Toro, total rave reviews and a very mainstream friendly romance plot that could skew heavily towards female and younger.

 

As far as the others:

 

- Darkest Hour would be my 2nd choice, but one has to wonder what kind of business can a WWII movie pull in Holiday season (despite the inspirational story + Churchill effect). Dunkirk did great in Summer (and it could help boost the interest for DH), but that was a Nolan vehicle and it was a huge, bombastic cinematic event. I think it will definitely be a huge hit in the UK, though. Wouldn't be shocked at an OS breakout and around 150-200M WW.

 

- Three Billboards could do Manchester By The Sea business (which would be fantastic for it, just as it was fantastic for MBTS itself) but I think that's about as much as it can hope.

 

- I, Tonya will probably get lost in the shuffle, unless Margot has a say with audiences or it gets rave reviews. I say around high 20's to low 30's is where it's looking at.

 

- Call Me By Your Name could have a Moonlight-like run if it really captivates the LGBT community and gets strong award consideration. Again, IF.

 

- Not expecting that much either from Phantom Thread. It's a movie about fashion. Daniel Day-Lewis is not Leonardo DiCaprio, he isn't an instant attraction radar to the GA on his own name alone (retirement or not).

 

- Neither Lady Bird or The Florida Project is looking over 30M (due to A24). 15-20 best case scenario for both.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

 

10M for Darkest Hour? lmao

[Eric Duncan]

The Shape of Water: $75M

Darkest Hour: $70M

Three Billboards: $65M

Lady Bird: $45M

I, Tonya: $20M

Call Me By Your Name: $20M

Phantom Thread: $10M

The Florida Project: $10M

 

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Honestly I'm pretty neck and neck with Three Billboards and Shape of Water rn.  I have the former at 70M and the latter at 77M

 

everything else:

Darkest Hour - 50M

I, Tonya - 45M

Lady Bird - 30M

Call Me by Your Name - 15M

Florida Project - 8M

Phantom Thread - will be delayed

[filmlover]

I feel like The Florida Project will easily make the least (unless PTA's film fails to catch on like Inherent Vice did), but it should land in the same low-to-mid-teens area that Beasts of the Southern Wild and Room did, which would be deemed really good for it. Low box office numbers probably won't impact its chances either way.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I feel like The Florida Project will easily make the least (unless PTA's film fails to catch on like Inherent Vice did), but it should land in the same low-to-mid-teens area that Beasts of the Southern Wild and Room did, which would be deemed really good for it. Low box office numbers probably won't impact its chances either way.

Nah, they might. I'm not seeing it contend anywhere outside of Supporting Actor; Lady Bird feels like a better option to campaign for (in addition to Disaster Artist in Actor and Screenplay).

[Alli]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

10M for Darkest Hour? lmao

It doesn't seem accessible to the general public

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

It doesn't seem accessible to the general public

 

yes because biopics are one of the least accessible genres to the GA.  no biopics have ever been GA accessible.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nah, they might. I'm not seeing it contend anywhere outside of Supporting Actor; Lady Bird feels like a better option to campaign for (in addition to Disaster Artist in Actor and Screenplay).

FWIW I currently have Brooklynn Prince as #5 in my Supporting Actress line-up (Hunter/Janney/Metcalf/Spencer are the other four, in no order other than Janney at #1).

Edited October 2, 2017 by filmlover