Which Fall Oscar hopeful specialty title will make the most?

[Alli]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

yes because biopics are one of the least accessible genres to the GA.  no biopics have ever been GA accessible.

it's talky biopic.  i stand by my prediction.

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

It doesn't seem accessible to the general public

Isn't a big crowdpleasing movie build around a build up to the big speech ?

 

The Crown on netflix was very accessible to audience, what was on paper imo much less accessible Dunkirk did very well.

 

All Joe Wright movies except one did over 35m adjusted domestic:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Director&id=joewright.htm

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

it's talky biopic.  i stand by my prediction.

Grosses of similar movies:

 

The Imitation Game: $91M

Lincoln: $182M

The King's Speech: $135M

 

And two of those had Best Actor frontrunners, which Darkest Hour also has. As you can see, being a "talky biopic" is hardly a setback for a movie in finding a wide audience.

[Alli]

Just now, filmlover said:

Grosses of similar movies:

 

The Imitation Game: $91M

Lincoln: $182M

The King's Speech: $135M

 

And two of those had Best Actor frontrunners, which Darkest Hour also has. As you can see, being a "talky biopic" is hardly a setback for a movie in finding a wide audience.

hmm...i see. interesting.....k then 40M

[Joel M]

I would go with Shape of Water or Three Billboards just because Fox Searchlight know this kind of game like no one else even if they had some high profile flops in recent years. 

 

The only other movie I can see going much higher than the usual 10-30m range that those "specialty" titles usually get is Darkest Hour, because it's a british biopic with an oscar frontrunner.

 

I voted Shape of Water because Del Toro really needs a win.

[YM!]

Shape of Water.

[Jonwo]

The Shape of Water will make the most money but I can see Darkest Hour being an OS player especially the UK as it's about Winston Churchill. Three Billboards will likely be Martin McDonaugh's highest grossing film ever.

[Cochofles]

I, Tonya.

[AndyK]

SOW !

 

B movies FTW.

[Ethan Hunt]

Shape seems like the obvious choice

[Belakor]

The shape of water is going to blown everyone away.

[baumer]

Looks like a two man race between SoW and TDH.

[WrathOfHan]

37 minutes ago, baumer said:

Looks like a two man race between SoW and TDH.

For the next few days, sure....

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

For the next few days, sure....

 

 

But you didn't include The Post in your original post. 

[SLAM!]

I, Tonya has been keeping a steady hold even with a slow expansion. I believe there is a high chance that film will be breaking out, thanks to its awards season presence and its alignment with the 2018 Winter Olympics.

[WrathOfHan]

39 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But you didn't include The Post in your original post. 

I realized this about 3 minutes after I turned off my computer  

[Hiccup23]

2 hours ago, slambros said:

I, Tonya has been keeping a steady hold even with a slow expansion. I believe there is a high chance that film will be breaking out, thanks to its awards season presence and its alignment with the 2018 Winter Olympics.

 

You make an excellent point! I completely forgot about the Winter Olympics....I,Tonya basically has free marketing right there. 

 

In my area, people become obsessed with ice skating during the Olympics and hopefully I, Tonya will be playing around me then. If so, I expect high turn out for the film in the Midwest. I, Tonya of all the Oscar films this year is the most appealing to Middle America....... Call Me By Your Name the least appealing. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Hiccup23

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, slambros said:

I, Tonya has been keeping a steady hold even with a slow expansion. I believe there is a high chance that film will be breaking out, thanks to its awards season presence and its alignment with the 2018 Winter Olympics.

 

If it picks up some awards tomorrow and then gets the Oscar nominations it might get, I don't think $30m is out of the question.  It should be around $15m by the end of 1/19 with a lot of room to run in the next 3 weeks.  

[titanic2187]

I 'll go for the post which isn't in the list, if something from the list, then i will go for SOW

[filmlover]

The Post was intentionally left off because it's a big studio release with big name talent attached with box office aspirations. Everything listed in the poll is not.