KeepItU25071906 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Well, I have it dropping 3% These weekdays are waaaaaaaay too strong. The Friday or Saturday increase would have to be pretty disappointing for it to drop over 10% IMO. I've never thought, that my -18% prediction can be underestimating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Honestly, this is probably the worst case scenario this weekend: 3.5M (-5%) 6.3M (+80%) 8.5M (+35%) 5.7M (-33%) 20.5M Weekend, 23% drop from 3 day Those would be lower Friday and Saturday increases than last week with a MUCH worse Sunday drop. Given that Friday increases are starting to ramp up as summer weekdays wind down, this would be incredibly pessimistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Honestly, this is probably the worst case scenario this weekend: 3.5M (-5%) 6.3M (+80%) 8.5M (+35%) 5.7M (-33%) 20.5M Weekend, 23% drop from 3 day Those would be lower Friday and Saturday increases than last week with a MUCH worse Sunday drop. Given that Friday increases are starting to ramp up as summer weekdays wind down, this would be incredibly pessimistic. You gotta love it when -23% on second weekend is pessimistic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) CRA could easily still be in the top 10 on October 12: First Man: 40M Venom: 30M A Star Is Born: 18M Bad Times at the El Royale: 14M Night School: 13M Goosebumps 2: 12M The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 8M Smallfoot: 5M A Simple Favor: 4.5M Crazy Rich Asians: 2M This depends on how big White Boy Rick and Life Itself are, but I expect them to open close to where CRA is on their respective weekends and drop faster. The Predator is going to be very frontloaded, and Venom will give that a very bad drop the prior weekend. Hell Fest will also drop fast. Edited August 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 HT3 needs 165.29 to make it to 3.750x multi (165.29/44.076225). Should be 158.75 by Sunday using 0.5 Thu and 2.5 weekend (-35%). Mon-Thu next weekend and 4-day weekend bump should take it to 163 at least and even big falls after that will take it past 165 with ease. Hope it catches HT2's unadjusted dom (169.7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) Edited August 23, 2018 by sfran43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: I hope Crazy Rich Asians shows studios that the mid-budget movie is alive and well worth investing in. This will end up making 6-7x the 30M budget from DOM alone. There's always plenty of evidence that mid-budget movies can make a very nice profit. Just this year we've had A Quiet Place, The Purge 4, Blockers, Fifty Shades 3, Peter Rabbit, and Game Night all do very well relative to their modest to low budgets. I won't count I Can Only Imagine because that's a genuinely low budget film that has racked up huge profits. Personally, I'm unhappy about CRA adding to that list because IMO it's a bad film, cliched and unfunny, thriving on "all Asian cast" media hype. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Holy fuck @ this 50% drop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) 25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Holy fuck @ this 50% drop Peter Berg makes good movies - flop, Peter Berg makes the bad movie - flop. Unlogical. Edited August 23, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 26 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: There's always plenty of evidence that mid-budget movies can make a very nice profit. Just this year we've had A Quiet Place, The Purge 4, Blockers, Fifty Shades 3, Peter Rabbit, and Game Night all do very well relative to their modest to low budgets. I won't count I Can Only Imagine because that's a genuinely low budget film that has racked up huge profits. Personally, I'm unhappy about CRA adding to that list because IMO it's a bad film, cliched and unfunny, thriving on "all Asian cast" media hype. But that's just me. Lot of those are more on the low budget than mid budget. With big movie going over 200m, mid budget would be more the 60-120m type of title than a Game Night or Purge 4. If we start calling a blumhouse 13m production like Purge 4 mid-budget, what will be a low budget for a studio distributed title ? In studio breakdown of slate and marketing study regarding movie budget you often see: 0-60m 60m-120m 120+m Big budget: the 150m-400m stuff with some room between 100-150 if it is big or mid. Mid budget: The Post, Passenger, Skyscaper, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Allied, Alien: Covenant, Equalizer 2, American Made, Jack reacher 1-2, Murder on the orient express Below 50m for a studio starting to be on the low side, like Purge, Game Night, Blockers I do not think people talking about the diminishing of the mid budgets have in mind no more 10-35m genre title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonePirate Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 3 hours ago, sfran43 said: The most remarkable tidbit about these films is that it would still be two more weekends after this one before There’s Something About Mary would reach #1 for the first (and only) time. Not many films hit #1 in their eighth weekend of wide realease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Peter Berg makes good movies - flop, Peter Berg makes the bad movie - flop. Unlogical. Even when they get an A+ cinemascore with patriot day, is it the only commercial failure to get an A+ ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CinemaScore#List_of_A+_films And it was a movie closely following the A+ cinemascore lone survivor, must be frustrating to have made movie so well received by critics and people that saw them not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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WrathOfHan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, sfran43 said: Hmm, so Kin and Operation Finale basically swapped TCs; the former was at 1,500 last week while the latter was at 2,300 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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