These people aren't just Derby, they're crazy Derby | Week 34

[AndyLL]

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

[ChipDerby]

Not that it matters, but you put A.X.I. instead of A.X.L.

[BobDole]

A look at where things stand after Round Robin:

League averages still fairly bunched together:

2 - 84.81% (still the top dog)

5 - 83.85% (moved up a slot)

1 - 83.17% (flip-flopped with L5)

3 - 83.15%

4 - 82.18%

Leagues 2, 5, and 3 improved their game during the second stage, upping their averages by .3-.6ppt while leagues 1 and 4's averages dropped .7 and .08ppt.

No undefeated players left, but Bates (L4) stands above the rest with the best record at 15-2, with one of those losses being a very close 85.26-85.34 in week 6 (more close calls below). Unsurprisingly they also have the best average at 89.59%, second-place is nearly a point behind at 88.72% (L3's Sheikh). That's actually the widest gulf between ranks until you get down to around 42nd-place with various inactive players skewing averages at that level.

As for under-ranked players, Exxdee improved their position to 4th place, 2 ranks below where their average % would place them, better than the 5-rank deficit they were at at the end of Round Robin. Among active players, myself, ZeeSoh, Fancyarcher are all also 2 spots under-ranked at the end of the second stage. The Fast and the Furiosa gets the dubious distinction of being the most under-ranked player, their 88.1% is the best in the very competitive League 2 (and 4th best in the competition) but they're holding down fourth.

Given how competitive L2 was with 10 active players, it's no surprise they were also the most rank-volatile league in the second stage, with every member save one player moving a rank at some point during the Ranked Rounds. 8wombi7 did the most moving, shifting 10 spots during the 8 weeks of play including a 4th-->1st leap after week 11. At the other end of the spectrum, League 3 barely moved rankings, a total of 6 shifted positions from 3 instances of players flip-flopping ranks during the second stage. Among active players, DAR (L2), chasmmi (L3), Lights Camera Action (L5), AndyLL (L5), Bates (L4), and Sheikh (L3) never changed ranks since the end of Round Robin, with the latter 2 players never giving up first place.

Finally, due to the nature of the ranked stage, some of the same players faced off over and over again. The most common match-ups among active players:

9x - Lights Camera Action v AndyLL 6-3 in LCA's favor

7x - TalismanRing v Empire 4-3

     - Bates v Tower 6-1

     - Litio v Simionski 6-1

6x - POTUS v 8wombi7 4-2

     - Sheikh v Keanu 4-2

     - chasmmi v Rolling Thunder 3-3

5x - GambitPool v Wrath 3-2

     - The Fast and the Furiosa v ZeeSoh 4-1

     - Fancyarcher v DAR 3-2

     - JJ-8 v DAR 4-1

     - TheXper v WrathOfHan 3-2

     - ChipMunky v TheXper 5-0 (including 1 no-show)

     - BobDole v ChipMunky 4-1

 

Other things of note:

Week 17 saw 5 players from League 5 make up the top 10, definitely not a normal occurrence as the best we've mustered is 3 in the top 10 a few times earlier on. Leagues 2 & 4 have had 4 members in the top 10 3x each during the tournament.

Week 17 also saw the closest match of the game with Keanu winning over Sheikh 84.98-84.98, that's 84.977-84.975, two-thousandths of a point.

This must've been revenge for Sheikh's 92.92-92.81 victory over Keanu in week 12.

Before this week, the closest match had been the week 3 match-up between feasby007 and Boxx93 that saw Boxx93 winning 89.08-89.07.

 

 

Looking at this weekend's matches, L1 & L5 feature grudge matches between players who've previously faced off 4-5x while all matches in L2-L4 are only the second time the opponents are facing each other.

Samarus (6th) is looking to get their first victory against boxofficeth (3rd) after going 0-4, including 3 no-shows.

Ever since feasby007 (4th) lost to Boxx93 (5th) by .01 in wk3, they've managed to win every time 3-1 (with one no-show).

Despite their going 6th against 3rd, TheXper actually has a winning record over WrathOfHan, 3-2.

5th-place BobDole has a winning record over 4th-place ChipMunky (4-1), but isn't resting easy given how close their guesses often are, out of the 50 movies they've guessed, 3 have been the exact same number, another 8 within 0.1, and a total of 37 of the 50 within $1M of each others' predictions. Given BobDole was up .08 in their Wk17 match on Sunday but ended up losing by 1.14 when actuals came in, they're not about to write off this match.

Edited August 23, 2018 by BobDole

[GambitPool]

@POTUS @Wrath @The Fast and the Furiosa

 

We're in the endgame now. The playoffs. It's do or die. The lucky streak I had may be ending. This might be the last round for me. I never expected to make it this far in the toughest division. Good luck to all you. 

 

[AndyLL]

Since I forgot what day it was and did not put the new game up until this morning I have extended the deadline by 5 hours to make sure all the international players have a chance to get their picks in

[AndyLL]

Empire missed a movie and PMed me the pick.  I'll put it in later

[POTUS 2020]

Player sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HJ8iFN1wIbsIfD_Qe9YSuaT6fq_qDL6ZeKajkLzqW70/edit?usp=sharing

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, AndyLL said:

Empire missed a movie and PMed me the pick.  I'll put it in later

 

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Player sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HJ8iFN1wIbsIfD_Qe9YSuaT6fq_qDL6ZeKajkLzqW70/edit?usp=sharing

Empires pick was 1.43M if someone wants to edit the sheet

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

 

Empires pick was 1.43M if someone wants to edit the sheet

if i knew that pick a few hours ago....

 

[ChipDerby]

We're pretty even with the holdovers... but if the openers go low, you're in trouble @BobDole

[ChipDerby]

Screw AXL to hell.

[BobDole]

Updated with all actuals

See-Saw-iest matches:

-feasby007 v Boxx93, with feasby007 ahead after Saturday's estimates, then Boxx93 ahead on Sunday, then swinging back to feasby007 with actuals

-sloth v Rolling Thunder, Saturday saw Rolling Thunder ahead by a point, Sunday had sloth ahead by .62, actuals gave Rolling Thunder the win by 1.7

Updated with 3 actuals/new estimates as of Monday noon

 

Too close to call

feasby007 v Boxx93 (L1) - Yet another close one, and possibly their second match decided by one-hundredth of a percent. feasby007 has the very slight lead at the moment, reversing a deficit from Saturday's estimates with the higher score on 6 films. Key films here are the Meg (adjusting down favors Boxx93), Mile 22 (if it adjustments up by more than $200k it favors feasby007), and any movement for Christopher Robin (whose 99% currently bolsters Boxx93's score)

Monday noon edit: Things have flipped the other way now with Boxx93 with a .124 lead, this'll be a fun one to watch

Actuals edit: Boxx93 extends their lead to a 0.44 win, tightest margin of victory in this week's Leagues matches

 

sloth v Rolling Thunder (L4) - 0.062 in sloth's favor. Despite having the better score in only 4 movies, double-digit advantages in AXL and Alpha are giving sloth the narrow edge. Movies' finals to keep an eye on are Mile 22 (6.03 Sunday estimate / sloth 6.1 / Rolling Thunder 6.22) and Alpha (5.6 / 5.58 / 6.33).

Monday noon edit: sloth extends lead to .12

Actuals edit: Mile 22 adjusting up from 6.03 to 6.37 gives Rolling Thunder the edge to win by 1.7

 

BobDole v ChipMunky (L5) - 0.511 in BobDole's favor. My, if not bullish but less-pessimistic, prediction on AXL is currently giving me a half-point lead (extended from a quarter-point lead off of Saturday's estimates) despite ChipMunky winning 5 films to my 4 (and 1 tie). Any downward adjustment to AXL will obviously be disadvantageous to me but here's hoping Global Road's rather precise $2,939,356 estimate foretells the actual weekend gross. Happytime Murders will probably adjust down making my already-bad 62% more detrimental to keeping a lead. As Mile 22's Sunday estimate is right between mine & CM's guesses, any upward adjustment gets it closer to my guess and vice versa.

Monday noon edit: AXL adjusted even closer to BobDole's estimate giving them a 99% for that movie and a slightly stronger .570 advantage, barring any major adjustments (BlacKkKlansman dropping below 5, MI6 adjusting below 6.8, Meg adjusting below 11.85) things look sewn up here.

Actuals edit: If A.X.L.'s actual made it an uphill climb for ChipMunky to reverse their deficit then Mile 22's upward adjustment was the nail in the coffin, giving BobDole a solid win margin of 1.62

 

chasmmi v Deja23 (L3) - With almost all their guesses within 0.22 of each other (save for 1.75M difference for CRA), it's no wonder this one's tight, currently 0.733 in Deja23's favor. Downward adjustments to Christopher Robin will hurt Deja23 while The Meg adjusting down by more than $180k will hurt chasmmi

Monday noon edit: Steady at .7 in Deja's favor

Actuals edit: Nothing adjusted against Deja's favor, wins by 0.64

 

Likely decided

Wrath v JMorphin (L2) - 3.299 in Wrath's favor

WrathOfHan v TheXper (L5) - 3.342 in TheXper's favor. Two 6th-place players beating 3rd-place here. The Xper went from a narrow .6 lead from Saturday's estimates to a big 3ppt lead when Sunday's numbers came in thanks to AXL, BlacKkKlansman, and Slender Man moving up and giving them two 99%s.

 

The Fast and the Furiosa v GambitPool (L2) - 5.998 in The Fast and the Furiosa's favor

 

de facto byes

boxofficeth v Samarus (L1)

PanaMovie v captainwondyful (L4)

Exxdee v Premium George (L4)

Edited August 27, 2018 by BobDole

[GambitPool]

8 hours ago, BobDole said:

 Likely decided

 

The Fast and the Furiosa v GambitPool (L2) - 5.998 in The Fast and the Furiosa's favor

Why you gotta remind me? 

[BobDole]

3 hours ago, GambitPool said:

Why you gotta remind me? 

Sorry (wo)man, you fought the good fight but F&F is on warpath to make a mockery out of their 4th-place ranking. I pity anyone who gets in their way, they're out for BLOOD

Edited August 27, 2018 by BobDole

[ChipDerby]

LOL we predicted $6.0 and $6.74 for Mile 22, and we ended up with the same score of 94.19%.

[AndyLL]

Congrats @dX airdry zid

 

	Rank	Player	Total Score	New Release Score	Holdover Score	Difference from Avg. Score	Total Points	Predicted Movies

	1	dX airdry zid	90.352%	89.050%	90.677%	5.206%	37	10
	2	The Fast and the Furiosa	89.381%	69.638%	94.317%	4.235%	36	10
	3	Wildbill	89.270%	75.599%	92.688%	4.124%	35	10
	4	Sheikh	89.077%	69.639%	93.936%	3.931%	34	10
	5	Bates	88.928%	71.287%	93.339%	3.783%	33	10
	6	TheXper	88.772%	74.711%	92.287%	3.626%	32	10
	7	8wombi7	88.448%	71.385%	92.713%	3.302%	31	10
	8	PanaMovie	87.838%	63.367%	93.956%	2.693%	30	10
	9	Keanu	87.722%	70.096%	92.128%	2.576%	29	10
	10	BobDole	87.720%	78.811%	89.948%	2.575%	28	10
	11	Zeverly Hills Cop	87.526%	78.513%	89.779%	2.380%	27	10
	12	kayumanggi	87.083%	64.715%	92.675%	1.937%	26	10
	13	Rolling Thunder	86.832%	64.566%	92.398%	1.686%	25	10
	14	TalismanRing	86.805%	64.572%	92.364%	1.660%	24	10
	15	Simionski	86.320%	58.922%	93.170%	1.174%	23	10
	16	ChipMunky	86.099%	69.940%	90.138%	0.953%	22	10
	17	Deja23	86.045%	63.029%	91.800%	0.900%	21	10
	18	boxofficeth	85.960%	64.288%	91.378%	0.814%	20	10
	19	Wrath	85.576%	66.402%	90.369%	0.430%	19	10

[8wombi7]

Only one person did pretty decent on the openers and won because of that, congrats @dX airdry zid!