Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Can it get close to TGM? FALLOUT did nearly 50m I believe. 

TGM 9K T-13 but Mid-day Start. MI6 Final PS at 363K (T-7 29K). Let's see how paces grows tomorrow.

 

I can see DR:Part 1 above Fallout.

[Algebra]

MI7 will probably make $800m+ but the journey towards that destination will be excruciating as a Box office tracking and MI fan

[JustLurking]

MI is pretty frontloaded in SK iirc, so should have an easy time comping with MI6 after a few days of PS. Start seems fine so far I think.

[HesAPooka]

11 hours ago, emoviefan said:

This is awesome. Hope people get the message. You can see multiple movies of different genres and not make it tribal.  

They absolutely will not. Everything is tribal these days.

[emoviefan]

5 hours ago, HesAPooka said:

They absolutely will not. Everything is tribal these days.

Sad but true. 

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, Algebra said:

MI7 will probably make $800m+ but the journey towards that destination will be excruciating as a Box office tracking and MI fan

And their are people , ok mostly just one person,  on this forum,  that will make it excruciating and will be even more insufferable. 

[rebelscum86]

On 6/29/2023 at 10:25 PM, emoviefan said:

Yeah I think the marketing has not been the best for this, Fallout's marketing was hard to top. Cavill reloading his arms alone helped that movie. It just seems this movie is a harder movie to sell on trailers and tv spots alone. Thankfully the movie sounds like it delivers and reviews and early WOM should help it. 

 

19 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Couldn't disagree more. Trailers are awesome, stunt buzz was out very early. FALLOUT didn't have a huge OW jump from the previous one. I liked its marketing, but it's not like it had a masterpiece campaign that resulted in a breakout. Also DR will have franchise best opening.

 

I have been impressed, I think the train scene is huge seller and they have done a lot with the mini docs / featurettes on the stunts. MI has a lot going for it in current market with practical effects, physical stunts, lead male that is allowed to be competent and masculine, and females that allowed to be sexy. I remember reading that part of TGM shocking run was young men came out more than expected and kept going back. I definitely think Cruise being allowed to be something different to todays programing is a novelty for younger males.

And speaking of tense runs does anyone here remember Ghost Protocol? It had the weirdest release I have ever seen and don't know the story behind it. They opened it in 400 theaters 1st before a wide realese. It mad 210m domestic without a weekend over 30m.

I think we have an 85-105 5 day opening, 250 - 280m domestic / 830 - 950 WW

The franchise has some amazingly consistant stats, 10xIM for previews, 3.5 legs, 30/70 domestic / intl split

[dudalb]

On 6/30/2023 at 10:55 AM, HesAPooka said:

They absolutely will not. Everything is tribal these days.

You are wrong,wrong.wrong.

[dudalb]

I still supsect that part 2 will be a pasisng of the torch film, with Ethan probably being kicked upstaits to become head of IMF,with the younger actors doing the field work.

That way you can still have Cruise in the movies, although in what wuld amount to a supporting role, while having younger actors do the big action stuff, which Cruise cannot continue to do .

[The Dark Alfred]

I can't see that happening. Cruise is pretty much behind the whole franchise. He hires the directors, produces, sets up the stunts, the training, etc. If he is involved so much in it, why would he go supporting. Obviously he can't do this forever, but I think they might do one more with McQ after Reckoning. Which might not be done by next summer btw if the SAG strike goes ahead. Only 40% of PART II is shot.   

[dudalb]

13 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I can't see that happening. Cruise is pretty much behind the whole franchise. He hires the directors, produces, sets up the stunts, the training, etc. If he is involved so much in it, why would he go supporting. Obviously he can't do this forever, but I think they might do one more with McQ after Reckoning. Which might not be done by next summer btw if the SAG strike goes ahead. Only 40% of PART II is shot.   

Cruise is 60 years old. Your body just begins to go on you, no matter how good shape you are in.

Thing is Cruise could still be the driving force behind the IMF films while his charecter retires from active field operations.

And, anyway knowing how movies are made, I have always regarded the "Cruise does his own stunts" stories with a ton of salt. Bottom line;Paramount will  not let Cruise do anything that has a real risk of serious injury.

[Maggie]

This better make some money OW. I can't believe Barbie will make more money than MI in the end

[The Dark Alfred]

12 minutes ago, Maggie said:

This better make some money OW. I can't believe Barbie will make more money than MI in the end

 

We don't know that for sure. Domestically - probably. Overseas - MI wins hands down. Besides it's a completely different demo. Hopefully both films will do great. OPPENHEIMER is more of a threat to MI, cuts into the same older demo. As I mentioned before 100m 5-day OW is pretty much a lock. If INDY and TRANSFORMERS can open to 60m, DR shall do that as well and shall carve out at least 40m Wed-Thu combined.

[Maggie]

Tracking has this at 90M five days. Movies lately come under tracking or barely reach it. If MI can reach 90M, i'd consider it ok.With so much competition, i'm starting to doubt domestic Fallout numbers

[Mr Roark]

Why are (some of) you guys so sure about DR outgrossing Fallout globally and even toying with the billie? I was on board like six months ago but now I’m starting to feel it will fall inbetween the last two.

[The Dark Alfred]

It is going to have franchise best start, I think it will pass FALLOUT domestically for certain. WW it is not a lock, a lot is riding on China. If it breaks out in a few Asian markets, I think 1 billion is not out of the question, but realistically I have it at 850-875m at the moment.

[Mr Roark]

Let’s say it would need a global $250M~ opening to achieve those numbers.
That’s a lot.

[The Dark Alfred]

Tom Cruise is like Tom Brady. People keep doubting and he keeps on winning. The MI franchise is quite consisent internationally. GP and RN both finished just below 500m and FALLOUT did over 550m. So it's fair to say that 500m is a lock. FAST X just did 550m this year and I can see DR match that if it does similar business in China. Domestically it is poised to do franchise best opening. I don't expect a breakout, but should pass FALLOUT easily. 250m sounds about right. So the only way it misses 800m if the WoM is not good. Based on the early reactions that is not the case. I know it's not sexy to have reasonable prediction. Folks like to cry wolf, so it's either 1 billion or below FALLOUT. 

Edited July 2, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Bob Train]

I don't see why people are assuming Dead Reckoning will make, like sub 70m in China. GOTGV3 made 85% of GOTGV2 in China. Assuming the same for Dead Reckoning and Fallout gets Dead Reckoning to 160m in China, which I think is reasonable

 

I think the issue is people are comparing Mission Impossible to franchises like Fast and Furious or Transformers. Those franchises had movies that were fucking hated in China, such as The Last Knight and F9, which completely cratered the popularity of the franchises and burnt goodwill. Mission Impossible hasn't had a movie like that in the franchise. So assuming a huge drop from 6 to 7 is unreasonable in my opinion.

[Austin]

I wouldnt say $100M 5-day is anywhere near locked yet but its a definite possibility.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Austin