Weekend Estimates - THE HUNGER GAMES | 155M

[B J]

Assuming All goes according to plan.

BJs High Prediction:

The Hunger Games

Opening Day: 68.99m (23m midnights)

2nd Day: 48.22m -30%

Opening Wknd: 150.96m - Fri: 68.99m / Sat: 48.22m -30% / Sun: 33.75m -30%

4-Day: 161.76m - Mon: 10.80m -68%

5-Day: 172.01m - Tue: 10.25m -5%

6-Day: 180.21m - Wed: 8.20m -20%

Opening Wk: 188.66m - Thur: 8.45m +3%

2nd Wknd: 76.00m -49% - Fri: 20.35m +140% / Sat: 32.75m +60% / Sun: 22.90m -30%

11-Day: 272.21m - Mon: 7.55m -67%

12-Day: 280.71m - Tue: 8.50m +12%

13-Day: 287.06m - Wed: 6.35m -25%

2nd Wk: 295.66m - Thur: 8.60m +35%

3rd Wknd: 46.15m -39% - Fri: 18.55m +115% / Sat: 16.85m -9% / Sun: 10.75m -35%

18-Day: 348.91m - Mon: 7.10m -35%

19-Day: 353.71m - Tue: 4.80m -35%

20-Day: 357.11m - Wed: 3.40m -29%

2nd Wk: 360.56m - Thur: 3.45m +2

4th Wknd: 26.75m -42% - Fri: 7.25m +110% / Sat: 12.00m +65% / Sun: 7.50m -37%

Wk-1: 188.66m - Wknd: 150.96m | Total: 188.66m

Wk-2: 107.00m - Wknd: 76.00m | Total: 295.66m

Wk-3: 65.10m - Wknd: 46.15m | Total: 360.56m

Wk-4: 35.50m - Wknd: 26.75m | Total: 396.26m

Wk-5: 22.60m - Wknd: 17.25m | Total: 418.66m

Wk-6: 16.50m - Wknd: 12.30m | Total: 435.36m

Wk-7: 10.15m - Wknd: 7.50m | Total: 445.51m

Wk-8: 6.65m - Wknd: 5.10m | Total: 452.16m

Wk-9: 4.05m - Wknd: 2.80m Total: 456.21m

Wk-10: 2.85m - Wknd: 1.80m - 4-Day-Wknd: 2.35m | Total: 459.06m

Wk-11: 1.50m - Wknd: 1.05m | Total: 460.56m

Wk-12: 1.15m - Wknd: .75m | Total: 461.71m

Wk-13: .75m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 462.46m

Wk-14: 1.25m - Wknd: .85m | Total: 463.71m

Wk-15: 1.10m - Wknd: .70m | Total: 464.81m

Wk-16: .85m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 465.66m

Wk-17: .70m - Wknd: .40m | Total: 466.36m

Wk-18: .50m - Wknd: .25m | Total: 466.86m

Wk-19: .40m - Wknd: .20m | Total: 467.26m

Wk-20: .25m - Wknd: .15m | Total: 467.51m

Money Made After Wk-17: ~.5m

Estimated Wks in theaters: 25

Days to 50m: 1-Days - 61.77m

Days to 100m: 2-Days - 103.10m

Days to 150m: 5-Days - 150.69m

Days to 200m: 9-Days - 204.35m

Days to 250m: 15-Days - 256.90m

Days to 300m: 34-Days - 304.95m

Days to 350m: 101-Days - 350.15m

Domestic Total: 468m

International Total: 295m

World Wide Total: 863m

Multiplyer: 3.10

All will go according to plan

[spizzer]

I'm currently working on a theory that might shed some more light on how these huge midnights affect the dynamics of blockbuster films' opening weekend breakdowns as well as what they mean in context of the total gross.This film should be a good test. Based on that theory, I'm now anticipating a Sunday drop of around 18-19% with solid potential for an even better hold. Really, I'm not interested in how accurate it turns out to be, I'm more interested in how this plays out in terms of fitting in with the theory, so there's no room for disappointment.

Edited March 25, 2012 by spizzer

[Robertron]

BJ, that days to $350m and WW total don't seem correct...

[BiffMan]

The new Alamo Drafthouse theater in Austin added 7:45 & 9pm shows (previously sold out for today) somewhere between noon and 3:30pm today (looks like they took the evening show from John Carter and something else, maybe Lorax) and somewhere in the 3:30-6pm timeframe, they both sold out. They now have it running on 5 of 8 screens for the Sunday evening showing. Drafthouse is usually pretty quick to shuffle showtimes on the fly as needed, but I've never seen them make a mid-day add on a Sunday before and then to sell them out that quickly... This might very well have a Sunday hold like TDK after all.

[riczhang]

BJ, that days to $350m and WW total don't seem correct...

yeah... and neither does the days to $300m...

[kayumanggi]

Noctis vs Mattrek:

Who is who?

[kayumanggi]

becasue the books are intelligent. Tweens and teens don`t have well developed taste which is why they used to have Borelando posters on the wall and now are ashamed and use them as toilet paper rolls.

[Deep Wang]

The new Alamo Drafthouse theater in Austin added 7:45 & 9pm shows (previously sold out for today) somewhere between noon and 3:30pm today (looks like they took the evening show from John Carter and something else, maybe Lorax) and somewhere in the 3:30-6pm timeframe, they both sold out.They now have it running on 5 of 8 screens for the Sunday evening showing. Drafthouse is usually pretty quick to shuffle showtimes on the fly as needed, but I've never seen them make a mid-day add on a Sunday before and then to sell them out that quickly... This might very well have a Sunday hold like TDK after all.

Yeah, but are the houses any bigger than the ones at the Ritz or South Lamar? Those are 100-150 capacity max. Those wouldn't take much to fill up.

[Lordmandeep]

I have a question can theaters take away showings from other movies..Because I sware on Friday and Saturday many theaters added showtimes at rather wierd timings randomly.for example you would have 7:30 7:45 pm and then 7:55 pm and then 8:15 and then 9:00 Pm and then 9:05 pm lol..

[BiffMan]

Yeah, but are the houses any bigger than the ones at the Ritz or South Lamar? Those are 100-150 capacity max. Those wouldn't take much to fill up.

I think they're similar, certainly not more than 200. It's not the quantity of seats sold that impressed me as much as the short lead time for posting those showings and then selling them out. That would indicate that demand wasn't close to satisfied on Fri/Sat and we may see a surprisingly strong Sun/Mon.

[BiffMan]

I have a question can theaters take away showings from other movies..Because I sware on Friday and Saturday many theaters added showtimes at rather wierd timings randomly.for example you would have 7:30 7:45 pm and then 7:55 pm and then 8:15 and then 9:00 Pm and then 9:05 pm lol..

They pretty much have to take them from other screens, right? Hard to build extra ones that quickly. ;)Like the Drafthouse did here, if you can show JC to a max of 5 people at 8:45pm, or you can pack a house with an additional 9pm THG showing... I presume in those instances they either haven't sold a single ticket for the cancelled show or they don't mind having a handful of angry customers if they get to have a full show instead.

[spizzer]

See little to no late sellouts. Evening sellouts were decent, and daytime sellouts were even with, if not ahead of yesterday.

[Lordmandeep]

lol I can just imagine like 200-300 people waiting for THG and one guy watching John Carter going "I paid for this ticket!"

[forg]

Just WOW!So happy for Jennifer Lawrence

[riczhang]

Looks like the theatre downtown will finish today nearly with a few late night sellouts, and my theatre will probably get to 50% maybe slightly more? It's at about 15-20% right now.

[blackspider]

Just got back from a 2:40 showing. It was PACKED! It might have been a sellout, nothing was left except a few scattered seats. And when I got out the theater was a lot busier in the lobby than when I got there so business definitely is continuing into the evening. This thing will definitely go up with actuals.

[RichWS]

Theaters should be busy today. It is estimated to make $36M after all.

[spizzer]

Theaters should be busy today. It is estimated to make $36M after all.

That's just extrapolation based on typical March Sunday drops. There's going to be more room for growth/decrease from that number than there was with the Friday and Saturday numbers.

[RichWS]

I'm trying to make the point that's a huge number. Everybody is saying their theaters are still busy and see this as proof actuals will end up higher. I don't get that.

[riczhang]

I'm trying to make the point that's a huge number. Everybody is saying their theaters are still busy and see this as proof actuals will end up higher. I don't get that.

Well it's not so much the 36 million number, because at that number no shit the theatres would be busy, however it is the fact that a lot of theatres throughout the morning, afternoon, and early evening seem to be keeping pace with the last two days which ended up with 48 and 51 million that's making people say that the figure will rise.