The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I guess I'm confused because we just had a movie open very well without IMAX?  Obviously this isn't going to do as well as Barbie, but I don't get the sky is falling attitude.

It’s the MCU, everything is always falling for some here when it comes to those. Just to make it clear, our club for The Marvels hitting $1B WW is a go if it’s released in 2023 or 2024, my apologies for taking it longer than I’d like to set it up but I will have that done tonight.

 

[SpiderByte]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

The only thing that really, truly matters for this movie is going to be reviews and wom.

That I agree on. I've liked Dacostas other movies so I'm actually bullish on it getting better reviews than the first one, which were mostly lukewarm though positive.

 

I also think Monica may be much more of a lead than some people are assuming. She's prominently front and center in a lot of the promo and her anger at Carol never coming back could add for some fun dynamics.

Edited July 27, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I still think it’s odd how the March 8th, 2024 date wasn’t the date they went ahead with The Marvels all along to begin with. 

 

I feel like someone that lives and breathes the MCU should be able to figure this one out?

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I feel like someone that lives and breathes the MCU should be able to figure this one out?

Because it wound intersection with the May date too much? It’s not like that was an issue when Captain Marvel was released in March 2019 and Endgame in May. 
 

If I had to guess, Disney internal tracking noticed the possibility of Barbie breaking out and moved from this weekend’s date. So The Marvels was  this year’s Marvel Studios Summer film, but got delayed to November. I still think we could see The Marvels and Deadpool 3 in May without being a problem for those films (strikes not withstanding).

[SpiderByte]

I mean the reason it didn't have a March 2024 date is because...they never had a

movie for that date. Their plan was May July November for releases that year.

Edited July 27, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Brainbug]

I think many people predict low grosses for The Marvels for three main reasons:

 

1) The marketing is ... nothing special. The trailers are ok. The problem is that this might not be enough anymore. Marvel movies pre-Endgame basically sold themselves, after the uneven Phase 4, people might be more cautious.

 

2) This might be controversial to some, but its imo a valid point: Is Captain Marvel a draw as a character or not? The first movie was a big hit, but what percentage of that 1,1B gross was due to Endgame/general Marvel Hype at the time? Its a question that only really can be answered with this movies performance. If the first movie truly was more of a mixed bag than what its box office might indicate, The Marvels should logically underperform and vice versa (of course the other "marvels" characters in this play a role as well, but for the GA, this is marketed as Captain Marvel 2)

 

3) The general trajectory of the MCU. Ant-Man 3 was a major underperformance, GOTG 3 opened lower than expected, but was rescued by its good WOM. In general, Phase 4 of the MCU was a very mixed bag and for a lot of people, the MCU has long lost its nimbus of quality control. Coupled with the question mark behind the first Captain Marvel films success, this could indicate low box office for a movie like The Marvels, which seems like just "another MCU film", which isnt special and a must-see factor anymore.

 

At least, this is what i noticed as arguments from a lot of members here and also from outside the forums. My personal take is that The Marvels will underperform in comparison to the first one, but i dont see it getting lower than Ant-Man 3. I think it will land between 600 and 750M worlwide. Enough to be profitable, but not a very big hit. Like @Deep Wang said though, WOM is the key. Like GOTG 3 showed, that can turn a so-so Opening Weekend into a very respectable final total.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Brainbug

[SpiderByte]

"Less than the first" is different than the Dark Phoenix type total collapse people have been insistent on since before the first trailer came out.

[Eric Prime]

49 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Did people dislike the finale? I thought it was good but I am no parameter as I’m pretty easy to please.

 

But your post poses an interesting question: Does the reception to these D+ shows affect the BO of MCU movies at all? Are they even big enough for that? And if so, what show would affect what movie? 
 

 

Nick Fury is a main character in this one and he was the main character in Secret Invasion, in theory they are directly connected, but do people care? Would anyone decide whether to watch the movie based on the show?  Has that ever demonstrably happen before? Maybe WandaVision was big enough to have an effect?

I've been a proponent for years now, around when we had Loki and Black Widow premiering on the same week, that these shows are hurting the box office of the movies. Even if they were the best shows ever, it's just a bad case of oversaturation. There's no breathing room anymore because there's a new Marvel thing every month now. It's bad for fans, because they never have time to relax or truly enjoy what's coming out, and it's bad for casuals, because now they have a bunch of other things to catch up on if they want to understand what's going on. And while it's obviously not the main culprit, I do think it is hurting the longevity and popularity of the MCU currently for a number of reasons. I can't find a single case, in the history of media, where oversaturation has ever benefited anybody.

 

That in my opinion is far more damaging for The Marvels' box office than it potentially not getting IMAX.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Eric Bainbridge said:

I've been a proponent for years now, around when we had Loki and Black Widow premiering on the same week, that these shows are hurting the box office of the movies. Even if they were the best shows ever, it's just a bad case of oversaturation. There's no breathing room anymore because there's a new Marvel thing every month now. It's bad for fans, because they never have time to relax or truly enjoy what's coming out, and it's bad for casuals, because now they have a bunch of other things to catch up on if they want to understand what's going on. And while it's obviously not the main culprit, I do think it is hurting the longevity and popularity of the MCU currently for a number of reasons. I can't find a single case, in the history of media, where oversaturation has ever benefited anybody.

 

That in my opinion is far more damaging for The Marvels' box office than it potentially not getting IMAX.

 

Imo, back in 2015, when a new MCU came out like 2 or 3 times a year, it always felt exciting and like something you woudnt want to miss.

 

In 2023, the MCU feels more than ever like homework. And nobody likes homework. The amount of films and shows you have to watch to catch up to the current status quo is simply absurd.

[SpiderByte]

There's not really any direct evidence of the shows hurting box office of movies. Hawkeye had zero affect on No Way Home. She-Hulk had no apparent affect on Wakanda Forever. Certainly none of the DC shows had ever had any impact on the movies.

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

I've been a proponent for years now, around when we had Loki and Black Widow premiering on the same week, that these shows are hurting the box office of the movies. Even if they were the best shows ever, it's just a bad case of oversaturation. There's no breathing room anymore because there's a new Marvel thing every month now. It's bad for fans, because they never have time to relax or truly enjoy what's coming out, and it's bad for casuals, because now they have a bunch of other things to catch up on if they want to understand what's going on. And while it's obviously not the main culprit, I do think it is hurting the longevity and popularity of the MCU currently for a number of reasons. I can't find a single case, in the history of media, where oversaturation has ever benefited anybody.

 

That in my opinion is far more damaging for The Marvels' box office than it potentially not getting IMAX.

I think the culprit isn’t really that we need ‘no more Disney+ Marvel shows’, but we need MCU shows that would make sense in the MCU over shows like Secret Invasion. I think your theory holds merit, but it’s not like Netflix wasn’t thrown us shit like Iron Fist and Defenders along with the Phase 2 and Phase 3 films. 
 

Daredevil, She-Hulk and Ms. Marvel make real sense in a tv series setting. They wouldn’t work as well as films. I think that a Nick Fury show had potential, I think the first 3 episodes had insane potential and I’m hardly the only one saying that the first 3 had some of the best MCU dialogues in a great while.It’s the subsequent 3 last episodes that everything falls apart on Secret Invasion; which makes it even more of a shame.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There's not really any direct evidence of the shows hurting box office of movies. Hawkeye had zero affect on No Way Home. She-Hulk had no apparent affect on Wakanda Forever. Certainly none of the DC shows had ever had any impact on the movies.

 

But box office isnt a crime case. Nobody here could actually provide cold, hard evidence for the shows hurting the box office. Its all speculation of course. You, on the other hand, could also not prove that the shows didnt hurt the box office. Maybe Wakanda Forever would have opened to 200M+ without She-Hulk? Who knows?

 

All we can do is speculate based on our opinions and understanding of the numbers we do have as well as our assessment of the current media/cultural landscape around the MCU and all other movies. And thats the fun part, isnt it? In my opinion, should The Marvels indeed underperform, that might be an indicator that the shows indeed hurt the box office among other reasons. At the same time, you or others could argue that the shows had nothing do with it. Who's to say that one is right and the other wrong?

[Valonqar]

50 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

At least, this is what i noticed as arguments from a lot of members here and also from outside the forums. My personal take is that The Marvels will underperform in comparison to the first one, but i dont see it getting lower than Ant-Man 3. I think it will land between 600 and 750M worlwide. Enough to be profitable, but not a very big hit. Like @Deep Wang said though, WOM is the key. Like GOTG 3 showed, that can turn a so-so Opening Weekend into a very respectable final total.

 

Yeah I was never on under 700M WW train. People thought I was cause of my club even though I said the club was "whatever Marvels make Barbie will make more be it $3.99 or 699M dom". But I said in many other posts that under 700M WW was unlikely. Families are not picky and this movie looks very childish so the same crowd that lapped up TLM should be satisfied with this. Plus Marvel brand should propel it to over TLM OS for 700M+ WW total. 

 

But drop is gonna happen. The movie doesn't look must-see, team up is between Carol and 2 literal who's so not an all-star thing, and 2 Captain Marvel spin-offs or loose tie-ins (Ms Marvel and Secret Invasion) flopped with viewers on D+ perhaps indicating that first movie's legacy is either forgotten already or not very good. Also, no Avengers boost unlike the first movie. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Valonqar

[upriser7]

Even with or without IMAX, I don't think Nov 2nd week is a good date, with Dune releasing in previous week and Hunger Games, Wish releasing within next 10 days. 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

Loki and Black Widow premiering on the same week, that these shows are hurting the box office of the movies.

You think Loki hurt Black Widows performance and not being a hybrid release during a pandemic?

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You think Loki hurt Black Widows performance and not being a hybrid release during a pandemic?

Iron Fist season 1 was released back in March 17, 2017. It didn’t have an effect on Guardians Vol. 2 one month later that year. 
 

That’s not to say that Secret Invasion doesn’t present a problem to the MCU, by the way. It’s arguably the worst thing that the MCU has ever done, Iron Fist and Defenders not counting.

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You think Loki hurt Black Widows performance and not being a hybrid release during a pandemic?

No. I never even remotely said anything like that. Please do not put words into my mouth.

[ZattMurdock]

I kinda think that the real question here is that despite some RT scores that I’m not even sure they were warranted, Secret Invasion is the first time I’d say that the MCU has put out a bad show, so what that means to The Marvels or the MCU as a whole moving forward? Or it doesn’t mean a thing at all? It’s a bad MCU offering.

 

That’s the first time I think that, and it’s clearly not just me that sees it this way. I actually think that the harsh criticism online for films and shows that are actually great or ‘eh it’s fine’ muddles things. What makes this unlike Iron Fist and let’s say some of the Agents of SHIELD mid seasons where Nick Fury shows up but that wasn’t deemed as canon afterwards is that this is very much MCU proper. That’s the real question here, imho. 

[SpiderByte]

23 minutes ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

No. I never even remotely said anything like that. Please do not put words into my mouth.

???

 

1 hour ago, Eric Bainbridge said:

I've been a proponent for years now, around when we had Loki and Black Widow premiering on the same week, that these shows are hurting the box office of the movies.

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Disney+ content in 2021, finales aside, was mostly well received, and thus didn't hurt the brand in any significant way. It's the 2022 slate which really started this divide we're seeing for Marvel right now. Moon Knight was a solid start to the year, but Multiverse of Madness was seen as a big letdown, Love and Thunder was a laughing stock, Ms Marvel lost a lot of support in its middle portion, and She-Hulk was ripped to shreds. There were bright spots like Werewolf by Night and the Guardians special, but those weren't enough to offset all the damage. The tip of the iceberg was Quantumania scoring the franchise's second Rotten Tomato and first legitimate flop. The Marvel brand is absolutely damaged right now. Guardians 3's opening weekend proved as much. Of course, the word of mouth did give the brand a second chance, a chance to put together a string of fan favourite projects to heal itself... and then Secret Invasion turned out to be a dud, so we're back to polarization territory. I have faith in Loki S2, but I'm not sure the remaining projects for the year are going to be crowdpleasers. That's the baggage The Marvels has to deal with, on top of Carol as a character not leaving much of a mark on pop culture since her first movie.