The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

If only there was a timeline in which Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, and Quantumania were good

$1.2b

$1b

$800m

 

 

[Bob Train]

Will press tour matter for Marvels? I don't think the actors in MCU movies matter at all from a BO standpoint. The character is the draw, not the actor.

 

The possibility of a last-minute blitz for KOTFM would be a lot more interesting, but Leo barely does any promo anyway strike or no strike, and he is the biggest remaining movie star DOM.

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

$1.2b

$1b

$800m

 

 

Idk if Love and Thunder would have hit $1B even with exceptional WOM (No china)...Maybe $900M

[MovieMan89]

10 hours ago, Squire said:

Not gonna get into the “did Endgame help the CM or not” debate. Perhaps the only way to show that is a big downturn for The Marvels. 
 

IMO, I think some level of superhero fatigue, post-COVID attendance, reduced China numbers for MCU films, and the general economic conditions will result in Marvels making at least 25% less than CM, but I wouldn’t expect an Alice in Wonderland 2 disaster. After all, even Ant-Man 3 made about $500M WW.

There is like a less than 0.05% chance this only falls 25% from CMs gross. The WOM would have to be absolute S tier. -33% (775m) or so in any realistic best case scenario. I would even give -75% a higher chance of happening than -25%. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by MovieMan89

[HummingLemon]

8 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

$1.2b

$1b

$800m

 

 

and Guardians would've done $1B+ as well

[HummingLemon]

If Multiverse of Madness was received well and had a China release it probably would've done like $500M domestic $850M OS $1.350B WW. RIPPPP

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Idk if Love and Thunder would have hit $1B even with exceptional WOM (No china)...Maybe $900M

True, maybe lack of China screws it over.

[The GOAT]

4 hours ago, Bob Train said:

$1.2b

$1b

$800m

 

 

They have ran out of the fresh, new and engaging ideas. The well is dry and with it comes an accumulation of their worst habits. When they "tried" something "new" like Eternals, it turned out to be an utterly boring dud of a movie. 

[Deep Wang]

8 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Will press tour matter for Marvels? I don't think the actors in MCU movies matter at all from a BO standpoint. The character is the draw, not the actor.

 

I think you are looking at it the wrong way.  Sure, the actors aren't the draw, but there's going to be millions of weirdos out there that don't spend all day on movie forums that has no idea what is coming out until they are watching Fallon(🤢) or whoever and see the cast there with a clip of the movie and think, "Oh, I had no idea there was another MCU movie coming out, that looks good/bad/whatever."

 

I have mentioned this before because I never looked at it this way, but I can't imagine there's another reason they do all these talk shows, right?  It's not the cast being the focus, it's them promoting the movie.

[Valonqar]

Blaming MOM for Marvel woes makes no sense. IMO, Endgame was simply a fitting ending and alot of casual fans - the biggest audience - were satisfied how the story ended stopped caring for what happened after. Add to that that:

 

MCU lost 2 most popular actors and central dynamic

MCU didn't find actors with nearly similar appeal and no one from the current lineup even approaches it - fact!

There's no central dynamic whatsoever

movies were chosen at random - BW, Eternals, Shang-chi, T:L&T are neither standalones (there's "will return") nor connected to anything so one has to wonder who needs those characters and for what

TV shows didn't crossover outside of rabid fandom yet TV characters are forced into movies (Ms Marvel, Monica) ao now there are awkward "here's a crash course on where these nobodies come from and what they did" trailers - I assume this will become practrice when they add more D+ characers into movies

Multiverse itself is too geeky for GA - they loved 3 Spideys but that's the extent of it. Characters fighting versions of themselves is confusing and boring to them

 

I could go on - it isn't even quality as much as that the story overstayed its welcome and many moved on pas the very satisfying end. That's all that is. MCU peaked and will never operate at its peak. 

 

[MovieMan89]

“Blaming MoM” entirely is extreme, but it definitely was a real turning point for the franchise. The momentum was absolutely there again after NWH, which was remarkable since EG really was the end of an era and should have slowed all of the post MCU momentum considerably. But NWH brought it all right back to peak level with audiences, and I absolutely think there was then a window for this phase to be massive if MoM and then Thor subsequently both delivered with audiences.
 

MoM OW basically proves it, that was an absurd opening for a Dr Strange movie. They definitely did not deliver on those NWH follow ups with audiences though. Not to mention Wanda was perfectly set up to be one of the new flagship Tony Stark level characters in terms of popularity coming off her massive breakout with the GA in WV, and they squandered all of that potential too. 
 

And then QM really put the nail in the coffin for franchise momentum with audiences. They are essentially working from scratch as if it’s phase 1 again now. 

[MovieMan89]

But hey, Raimi gets the honorable distinction of being maybe the only directors to really kill off the momentum of two of the biggest movie franchises of all time twice! 

[TMP]

40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But hey, Raimi gets the honorable distinction of being maybe the only directors to really kill off the momentum of two of the biggest movie franchises of all time twice! 

Who had a bigger fall from grace - him or Burton? Burton probably has higher highs but significantly lower lows...

[HummingLemon]

42 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But hey, Raimi gets the honorable distinction of being maybe the only directors to really kill off the momentum of two of the biggest movie franchises of all time twice! 

It was Mr. Waldron's fault :<

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Who had a bigger fall from grace - him or Burton? Burton probably has higher highs but significantly lower lows...

I mean Burton didn’t bring the momentum for one of the biggest franchises Hollywood had ever seen to a screeching halt two separate times. Raimi may be the only one to do that lol. Raimi’s horror camp kitsch shtick he loves just doesn’t mesh with these major blockbusters intended for the masses. 

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

It was Mr. Waldron's fault :<

Or more like Kevin Feige's fault. Or whoever is in their infamous committee.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

But hey, Raimi gets the honorable distinction of being maybe the only directors to really kill off the momentum of two of the biggest movie franchises of all time twice! 

Both films were successful at box office, studios wish they had "momentum killers" like this. MoM is not worse than generic schlock like Ant-Man 2 and Captain Marvel which was released around last Avengers flicks.

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Raimi’s horror camp kitsch shtick he loves just doesn’t mesh with these major blockbusters intended for the masses. 

His horror camp kitsch shtick worked at least twice in these major blockbusters, so idk what you are talking about.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Firepower

[TMP]

53 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean Burton didn’t bring the momentum for one of the biggest franchises Hollywood had ever seen to a screeching halt two separate times. Raimi may be the only one to do that lol. Raimi’s horror camp kitsch shtick he loves just doesn’t mesh with these major blockbusters intended for the masses. 

They should get him to spearhead a Hammer revival tbh

[TheFlatLannister]

I’m expecting a very muted start to The Marvels presales. I don’t think there will be much fan rush and it will perform more like GOTG3 in terms of pace (but from a much lower baseline). That’s why I’m skeptical about $100M 

[Bob Train]

Spider-Man 3 was ruined by Avi Arad, not Raimi, as Arad forced Raimi to make a movie he had little interest in making. 

 

Doctor Strange 2 was ruined by Feige picking writers with no experience to write $200m blockbusters. Raimi's direction was the only good thing in that movie.