Purple Minion Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) Already released in several markets, buzz looks muted for a Pixar film. Opening estimates hover around $100M. Edited March 15, 2020 by Purple Minion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 75 mil WW OW. 40 mil DOM, 35 mil OS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 South American OD are weak. The closest comp I found was Shazam. Chile looks better but I don't have hard numbers (In the evening I will look for more comps) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 I'm afraid the target for this is Cars 3. Sub-GD OS wouldn't shock me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Omni said: I'm afraid the target for this is Cars 3. Sub-GD OS wouldn't shock me. we will see (hope not), , the average pixar/walt disney animation studios original mostly make like 600-650 if onward ww makes like 400-500 (with every country that means japan,south korea etc and so on) while obviously that would be an underperformance, it would actuall be on the lower end of the pixar/walt disney animation movies ps correct me if i am wrong but the lower pixar/walt disney animation movies make 350-550 , the middle most of the time like 650 and the high sequels, overperformances( frozen,coco ,zootopia etc) make 800-1.1 ps 2 with 2 huge huge performances inc 2 , frozen 1,2 1,2-1,4 bill Edited March 6, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 50 minutes ago, Omni said: I'm afraid the target for this is Cars 3. Sub-GD OS wouldn't shock me. Yes. This movie BO is fucked for sure. one the hype is just not there plus COVID-19 impact is gonna be brutal. Anyway Disney can handle if this movie and even Mulan is impacted by COVID-19. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Yes. This movie BO is fucked for sure. one the hype is just not there plus COVID-19 impact is gonna be brutal. Anyway Disney can handle if this movie and even Mulan is impacted by COVID-19. i think that if the movie say hits 200 mill os without (china,italy,sout korea,japan) , it will be mostly by the hype, rather than the virus, as of now, as i have been in many international threads the countries that are very very affected, (major) are south kora, italy, china as for japan i was in that thread yesterday, and while there has been a noticable affect it wasnt actually big, that what i have personally gathered though from the international threads ps i am talking now about the os numbers without the 4 countries i referenced Edited March 6, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, john2000 said: i think that if the movie say hits 200 mill os without (china,italy,sout korea,japan) , it will be mostly by the hype, rather than the virus, as of now, as i have been in many international threads the countries that are very very affected, (major) are south kora, italy, china as for japan i was in that thread yesterday, and while there has been a noticable affect it wasnt actually big, that what i have personally gathered though from the international threads ps i am talking now about the os numbers without the 4 countries i referenced Impact is almost global at this point. French local government closed 44 theaters(145 screens). It will get worse before getting for better. People will avoid public places where you are cooped together. So movies will be a casualty. Otherwise why would Japan releases get delayed when schools are out for a month and case count has not gone crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Impact is almost global at this point. French local government closed 44 theaters(145 screens). It will get worse before getting for better. People will avoid public places where you are cooped together. So movies will be a casualty. Otherwise why would Japan releases get delayed when schools are out for a month and case count has not gone crazy. .. Edited March 6, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 2 hours ago, john2000 said: ps correct me if i am wrong but the lower pixar/walt disney animation movies make 350-550 , the middle most of the time like 650 and the high sequels, overperformances( frozen,coco ,zootopia etc) make 800-1.1 Disney has been overall more reliable than Pixar in the last decade, with the first Ralph being their lowest grosser at a still respectable 471M WW. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur stands at 332M as the lowest Pixar grosser ever unadjusted. The problem with Pixar is that they occasionally miss the target, and make a product with no apparent appeal and/or a goofy/weird premise. Onward always looked closer to a GD than to an Inside Out, but covid put it in a very risky spot. GD got a risky spot as well by being released a few weeks before than the (now second) most anticipated movie ever, so it just got sacrificed. Same will happen to Onward. 300/350M is the likely range that early numbers from NA, Germany, Spain and other countries suggest. It's a movie that will never see a China release I guess (not like it would matter that much...) and that Japan will just ignore like it did to GD. It is just the wrong movie at the wrong time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Omni said: Disney has been overall more reliable than Pixar in the last decade, with the first Ralph being their lowest grosser at a still respectable 471M WW. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur stands at 332M as the lowest Pixar grosser ever unadjusted. The problem with Pixar is that they occasionally miss the target, and make a product with no apparent appeal and/or a goofy/weird premise. Onward always looked closer to a GD than to an Inside Out, but covid put it in a very risky spot. GD got a risky spot as well by being released a few weeks before than the (now second) most anticipated movie ever, so it just got sacrificed. Same will happen to Onward. 300/350M is the likely range that early numbers from NA, Germany, Spain and other countries suggest. It's a movie that will never see a China release I guess (not like it would matter that much...) and that Japan will just ignore like it did to GD. It is just the wrong movie at the wrong time. agreed ,oh well i guess not every movie is a hit, thats the risk when you make original movies Edited March 6, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 South American numbers: Argentina / Paraguay / Uruguay / Perú Onward: 13.790 / 453 / 336 / 20.000 Some comparisons: Abominable: 4.865 / 316 / 2.637 / 12.000 Angry Birds 2: 5.550 / 921/ 223 / No Perú data I didn't found info for A good Dinosaur, but it seems it is doing worse (Its OW will be below it in Argentina at least, though Good Dino did fine in SA) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Yikes really wanted this to at least clear $500M WW at the start of the year. Disney should stop scheduling 2 Pixar films a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said: Yikes really wanted this to at least clear $500M WW at the start of the year. Disney should stop scheduling 2 Pixar films a year. again thats not the problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, john2000 said: again thats not the problem It's not the root of the problem but it seems everytime they do it one underperforms. Edited March 7, 2020 by Darth Lehnsherr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said: It's not the root of the problem but it seems everytime they do it one underperforms. well thats more of a coincedence if anything 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said: It's not the root of the problem but it seems everytime they do it one underperforms. We don't have many examples of this. IO/GD is the only one that counts, as everyone knew Cars 3 was doing sub-450M since it was announced. Also, I'm pretty sure you're switching cause and consequence: it's not like GD, Cars 3 and Onward failed because they were released along with a bigger Pixar movie, but they were released with a bigger Pixar movie because Disney knew they had limited potential. Sure they wouldn't release I3 and Soul the same year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted March 8, 2020 Author Share Posted March 8, 2020 Not very good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Sonic > Onward? Nobody saw that coming a couple of months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Omni said: Sonic > Onward? Nobody saw that coming a couple of months ago. nope, sonic greatly overperformed, and onward will be on the lower end of pixar , ps sonic even with all the backlassh had big buzz, if you see the trailer reviews, while onward didnt still many people included me thought that this was normal as most of pixars originals arent big in trailers or buzz, they depend most on the legs , anyways , i dont think corona is to blame for onward though as holdovers both in us and overseas had great drops especiallu invisible man in os Edited March 8, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...