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Eric from Progressive

Mickey's Law Contest - How Many Non-Disney/Non-DC 2020 Films Hit 250M DOM in 2021?

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As you may or may not know, since 2019, I’ve been purporting the idea of Mickey’s Law. The idea that at the box office, for films not produced or co-produced by Disney, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. I decided to apply this logic to one of my most ambitious clubs yet. I knew that Wonder Woman was safe from the Law, but looking at the non-Disney landscape, I really did not see much potential here. So I created a club that stated this: Every non-Disney, Non-DC title will miss $250 million at the domestic box office. It was a tough club and I didn’t completely trust myself that would happen, but I decided to take a good swing and see what was gonna happen.

 

And Mickey’s Law certainly did its magic...it just so happens that its magic was so powerful this year it toppled Disney and domestic theatrical exhibition as we know it. Sure enough, the COVID-19 pandemic basically wrecked movie theaters and forced multiple delays for upcoming 2020 releases. But now that we’re in a precarious situation where theater chains are on the brink of bankruptcy and studios are forced to gradually rebuild interest in their movie slates, what exactly will these 2020 titles gross now, especially when we will still feel the effects of the pandemic in 2021 onward and many more delays are likely still to come? While I can’t answer this confidently now, we can at least make a fun contest out of this!

 

Here’s how it works: You have to look at every movie that isn’t a Disney/Fox production or a DC Comics adaptation that had plans for a 2020 release date at some point, even if COVID didn’t impact its delay, and determine how many of them will hit at least 250M domestically in 2021. I'm sticking with this because theming and it makes things all the harder for you guys. A challenge is fun. You will also get bonus points for how many movies you accurately predict, but more on that later.

 

The winner of this contest gets a Gold Account for three months on me!

 

I’m sure you guys have plenty of questions about how this will work and the greater details, so here’s a brief Q&A.

 

What are the movies that qualify here?

 

I understand that with so many delays it can be hard to keep track what was actually set for 2020 at some point. So here’s the master list of all the 2021 movies that had a 2020 release date at some point. (If I missed anything, please let me know)

 

Spoiler

Respect

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Rumble

The King’s Man

Nobody

Antlers

Ghostbusters Afterlife

Tom and Jerry

The Many Saints of Newark

Morbius

Fatherhood

No Time to Die

BIOS

A Quiet Place Part II

Last Night in Soho

Ron’s Gone Wrong

Spiral

Godzilla vs. Kong

Infinite

F9

Vivo

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

In the Heights

Venom: Let There Be Carnage

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Top Gun: Maverick

The Forever Purge

Uncharted

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar

The Tomorrow War

Hotel Transylvania 4

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard

The Man from Toronto

Dune

Halloween Kills

Snake Eyes: GI Joe Origins

Clifford the Big Red Dog

Elvis

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 3

King Richard

 

 

As for movies that haven’t been pushed to 2021 yet but might in the coming days, like Freaky or Croods 2, those can also qualify here. If there’s anything 2020 has proven, it’s that it can be very unpredictable.

 

Are all 2021 movies allowed here?

 

No. We only ask for movies that were planned for 2020 just to make it harder for you guys and I feel it would be cheating a bit. So don’t consider Mission: Impossible 7 or Space Jam 2 in your prediction.

 

What if a 2020 movie that got pushed for 2021 gets pushed to 2022?

 

Then that movie is disqualified. Remember, it had to have come out in 2021 for it to count. So if No Time to Die gets pushed to March 2022, that means that movie no longer qualifies, even if it had both a 2020 and 2021 release date. And while unlikely, if a movie winds up hitting VOD or streaming, it is also disqualified.

 

How will the point system work?

 

It goes a little something like this:

 

If you predict an exact number of films - 50 points

 

If you are only one off - 40 points

 

If you are two off - 30 points

 

If you are three off - 20 points

 

If you are four off - 10 points

 

There are also bonus points for how many movies you accurately predict will pass 250M DOM. Each film is worth 5 points.

 

So take this for an example: One user predicted four movies would cross 250M DOM while another predicted only three. And when 2021 is over with, four movies crossed the mark. So that means the first user has 50 points, while the other has 40. However, the user who predicted three movies specifically answered what movies would cross the mark. And wouldn’t you know it, he got Spiral, Barb and Star, and Clifford the Big Red Dog all right. So he gets 55 points and wins the Gold Account. If only poster #1 specified what movies would win.

 

You have until December 31, 2020, 11:59 EST to edit and change your list. The winner will be determined in early 2022. Have fun!

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I'm thinking 2, possibly 3 will do that. 

If nothing else, there will still be upheaval with 2021 releases pushing back to 2022, and that will leave a vacuum.

 

Of course, that is all predicated on a normal distribution model resuming by Q2 2021 at the latest...

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At $250M DOM, with what I think studios are doing to theaters this year...as much as I love Spidey, well, I'll assume he'll kick to 2022 b/c the industry will be decimated domestically and go ZERO.

 

Heck, let me go one further...I'll say ZERO movies hit $250M DOM in 2021, whether Disney, DC, or other.  There's a tiebreak:)...(This is the saddest thing I've written all year, but I lived through music and Napster, which didn't have a health component or an elimination of the actual product, but just a preference cascade)...

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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

 

Which ones?

Think Venom (for some reason people liked the first one and I just feel like this will be a better movie, with a similar opening but slightly better legs), Minions and Top Gun.

 

Also think F9 has a shot at that.

 

But this is, again, all on the assumption that there is a return to normal or at least a positive outlook for the second half of the year, allowing for a buoyant market all around. And, to tie in with that, that major chains either survive or get snapped up fast enough for a swift transition and 90% of the normal market is open by late March (which would actually help F9 as well, being among the first big releases to enjoy a proper wide release)

 

As is... fuck knows. Everything is up in the air. But under somewhat normal circumstances, after a year of... all this shit... I would feel overly-optimistic about those three.

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59 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

The DC/Dis movies over 250M that release in 2021 and were at one point scheduled for 2020:

Eternals

WW84

 

True and even then I’m leery about $300M DOM. I also think SM3 has a shot but it’ll likely move to 2022, mainly because Covid is making filming harder, and even surefire things like Batman and JW3 were pushed to 2022.

 

Normalcy won’t return until 2022, maybe 2023 at earliest.

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