Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I think below Endgame in Japan should be viewed as a surprising result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danhjpn Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 56 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: I think below Endgame in Japan should be viewed as a surprising result. the Tobey movies got the highest gross among Spiderman movies in Japan. Wonder if it will be the factor to build the legs this time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) Alright looked at numbers Sony reported and my estimates. I think we can get $342M weekend. Main difference, if remains will be France. As we know some studios dont report actual gross till 3rd week in France. France would be around $21M but Sony will be giving $18M ish. Unless they wanna go for $600M and actually give that. My numbers in India are $1.2M lower than Sony. My estimate for Sunday in Australia and UK are more optimistic than Sony. LATAM may see better than estimates numbers. So TL;DR $600M is likely. Also my updated final projections Spoiler Country Asia China India $35.00 South Korea $75.00 Japan $40.00 Taiwan $20.00 Hong Kong $15.00 South East Asia $70.00 Middle East $55.00 Russia/CIS $35.00 Rest $5.00 Oceania Australia $45.00 New Zealand $6.00 Europe UK $90.00 France $55.00 Germany $40.00 Italy $25.00 Spain $25.00 Netherlands $7.00 Nordic $30.00 Rest $55.00 Latin America Mexico $60.00 Brazil $45.00 Rest $75.00 Africa Africa $5.00 Total $913.00 Edited December 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Alright looked at numbers Sony reported and my estimates. I think we can get $342M weekend. Main difference, if remains will be France. As we know some studios dont report actual gross till 3rd week in France. France would be around $21M but Sony will be giving $18M ish. Unless they wanna go for $600M and actually give that. My numbers in India are $1.2M lower than Sony. My estimate for Sunday in Australia and UK are more optimistic than Sony. LATAM may see better than estimates numbers. So TL;DR $600M is likely. Also my updated final projections Hide contents Country Asia China India $35.00 South Korea $75.00 Japan $40.00 Taiwan $20.00 Hong Kong $15.00 South East Asia $70.00 Middle East $55.00 Russia/CIS $35.00 Rest $5.00 Oceania Australia $45.00 New Zealand $6.00 Europe UK $90.00 France $55.00 Germany $40.00 Italy $22.00 Spain $18.00 Netherlands $7.00 Nordic $30.00 Rest $55.00 Latin America Mexico $60.00 Brazil $45.00 Rest $75.00 Africa Africa $5.00 Total $903.00 $18M final in Spain? Didn't it open to over $10M? Italy at $22M after a $13M opening seems off as well. $40M in Japan also seems really low. Should be $60M+ If Australia and the UK don't have any usual restrictions in the next 3-4 weeks, I think you can add $10M to Australia and $15-20M to the UK. The legs you're modeling here would be lower than Infinity War OS. Lower than TFA OS by a full point. I don't think legs will be like TFA but lower than IW with the holidays and WOM it has doesn't seem likely either. Edited December 20, 2021 by GoblinXXR 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 More important than OS-C estimate is I guess estimate of DOM/OS-C 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Alright looked at numbers Sony reported and my estimates. I think we can get $342M weekend. Main difference, if remains will be France. As we know some studios dont report actual gross till 3rd week in France. France would be around $21M but Sony will be giving $18M ish. Unless they wanna go for $600M and actually give that. My numbers in India are $1.2M lower than Sony. My estimate for Sunday in Australia and UK are more optimistic than Sony. LATAM may see better than estimates numbers. So TL;DR $600M is likely. Also my updated final projections Reveal hidden contents Country Asia China India $35.00 South Korea $75.00 Japan $40.00 Taiwan $20.00 Hong Kong $15.00 South East Asia $70.00 Middle East $55.00 Russia/CIS $35.00 Rest $5.00 Oceania Australia $45.00 New Zealand $6.00 Europe UK $90.00 France $55.00 Germany $40.00 Italy $25.00 Spain $25.00 Netherlands $7.00 Nordic $30.00 Rest $55.00 Latin America Mexico $60.00 Brazil $45.00 Rest $75.00 Africa Africa $5.00 Total $913.00 And what about DOM ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: $18M final in Spain? Didn't it open to over $10M? Italy at $22M after a $13M opening seems off as well. oh yeah missed editing these. Will try $25M+ in each probably. 18 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: $40M in Japan also seems really low. Should be $60M+ It won't. Period. People keep quoting that Spider-man did blah blah in 2000s don't understand that box office is on decline in most of these developed markets. Harry Potter was doing 20B range in Japan in 2000s, the final Potter in 2011 barely managed to do 10B. On top of that ER is shit in Japan right now. NWH ain't beating EG. Regarding AUS and UK, I think it can do better sure, especially in AUS. But its still a CBM and they do have a limit. EG after the weekend looked like easy 100+ in both UK and AUS, ended up doing Just 88 and 84 respectively. Edited December 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said: People keep quoting that Spider-man did blah blah in 2000s don't understand that box office is on decline in most of these developed markets. Harry Potter was doing 20B range in Japan in 2000s, the final Potter in 2011 barely managed to do 10B. On top of that ER is shit in Japan right now. NWH ain't beating EG. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danhjpn Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: $18M final in Spain? Didn't it open to over $10M? Italy at $22M after a $13M opening seems off as well. $40M in Japan also seems really low. Should be $60M+ If Australia and the UK don't have any usual restrictions in the next 3-4 weeks, I think you can add $10M to Australia and $15-20M to the UK. The legs you're modeling here would be lower than Infinity War OS. Lower than TFA OS by a full point. I don't think legs will be like TFA but lower than IW with the holidays and WOM it has doesn't seem likely either. Can Taiwan a bit higher than Hongkong hit $20M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: People keep quoting that Spider-man did blah blah in 2000s don't understand that box office is on decline in most of these developed markets. Harry Potter was doing 20B range in Japan in 2000s, the final Potter in 2011 barely managed to do 10B. On top of that ER is shit in Japan right now. NWH ain't beating EG. Brief off-topic but DH2 actually barely missed ¥10 billion in Japan with a final gross of ¥9.67 billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) On 12/20/2021 at 9:15 AM, charlie Jatinder said: oh yeah missed editing these. Will try $25M+ in each probably. It won't. Period. People keep quoting that Spider-man did blah blah in 2000s don't understand that box office is on decline in most of these developed markets. Harry Potter was doing 20B range in Japan in 2000s, the final Potter in 2011 barely managed to do 10B. On top of that ER is shit in Japan right now. NWH ain't beating EG. Regarding AUS and UK, I think it can do better sure, especially in AUS. But its still a CBM and they do have a limit. EG after the weekend looked like easy 100+ in both UK and AUS, ended up doing Just 88 and 84 respectively. You are wrong, yet again. Let's have a simple bet - I will book you one ticket, movie of your choosing in theatre of your choosing, If I lose. If you lose, You just need to say this - "We kept under-estimating NWH. We never learn" so that I can have Sig too like someone else has. Edited January 28, 2022 by Shanks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: It won't. Period. People keep quoting that Spider-man did blah blah in 2000s don't understand that box office is on decline in most of these developed markets. Harry Potter was doing 20B range in Japan in 2000s, the final Potter in 2011 barely managed to do 10B. On top of that ER is shit in Japan right now. NWH ain't beating EG. There are people who understand the market and think it will beat EG, so get outta here with this condescending stuff. It doesn’t need any sorts comparison to 2000s movies, just FFH which was 2 years ago. Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 3:41 AM, Issac Newton said: Spiderman: No Way Home broke the first three days advance booking records of it's previous two film "Homecoming" &"Far From Home" by 339% &376% repectively. Advance booking for SM:NWH has started from Dec 3. 2 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: There are people who understand the market and think it will beat EG, so get outta here with this condescending stuff This is all you really need to know. For reference, FFH did $28.2M and HC did $25.4M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: This is all you really need to know. For reference, FFH did $28.2M and HC did $25.4M Don't have a horse in this race personally, but Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) commented on this headline. Quote I addressed this earlier in the week when someone posted it. It's great news, not dismissing that, but this is a very misleading headline. It's only referring to the Mubichike Card tickets, which feature different designs, such as featuring the posters and other art from the film on the tickets, that are typically aimed at the fanbase. These tickets have increased greatly in popularity in recent years. They're generally limited in availability as well, but given their rise in popularity, more are also being made available.Some news sources and people on social media are running away with it misleadingly without all the details. Here is the original source: https://www.cinematoday.jp/news/N0127529Again, not dismissing this, it's good of course, but these Mubichike tickets are a lot more popular these days, and since they're limited (especially in years prior), it's not especially difficult for a current film to outpace past films in those sales by pretty big numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: This is all you really need to know. For reference, FFH did $28.2M and HC did $25.4M I mean, PS really are dangerous to put too much stock in of course. But doubling FFH isn’t a huge ask based on other territories. Now to be clear, it could come in cooler at like 45, I wouldn’t be shocked. But we also shouldn’t be shocked with 70 imo. We will just have to see how it goes with the Japanese public. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, KP1025 said: Don't have a horse in this race personally, but Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) commented on this headline. Has Corpse given his prediction for NWH? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, KP1025 said: Don't have a horse in this race personally, but Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) commented on this headline. You hang out in the Japan thread here and wokj a fair bit, do you know corpse’s most recent expectations? edit: jinx Edited December 20, 2021 by Weird Alegion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: Has Corpse given his prediction for NWH? 4 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: You hang out in the Japan thread here and wokj a fair bit, do you know corpse’s most recent expectations? edit: jinx This was his prediction from over a month ago, before presales exploded globally. In light of the record performances in other markets, I wouldn't be surprised if he is expecting at least ¥5 billion now. Quote Well... moving to January 7th is an interesting move. It's a 4-day holiday weekend, the last in the New Year holiday period (and that Monday, January 10th, is a national holiday, too), so it'll likely have a more impressive opening than it would have in December.However... its run may prove to be more frontloaded than before because mid-January through early-March is typically a weaker period for the box-office. So, likely bigger start/opening, but worse legs.The last four Spider-Man films have been very consistent, all earning right around ¥3 billion (all four between ¥2.80-¥3.16 billion), so something around there at a minimum I'd say. But with more of a novelty factor this time (Maguire and Garfield, not to mention the returning villains), it should see a bit a bump. I could see it approach ¥4 billion or a bit more ($35-40 million). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said: This is all you really need to know. For reference, FFH did $28.2M and HC did $25.4M Korea pre-sales were 7x Homecoming and FFH on first day. How is it doing? US had pre-sales 10x. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 43 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: There are people who understand the market and think it will beat EG Only one I will believe is if Corpse says so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
