The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Summer means people can actually go in matinees on THU and that will hit ATP hard, so THU GROSS may be deflated.

 

You're killing me. First it's going up because it's summer, then it's going down because of matinees. Make up your mind! 

 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:11 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	749	30872	2.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp

1.522x of F9 T-21 (10.81M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	908	30872	2.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

1.703x of F9 T-20 (12.09M)

2.802x of No Time to Die T-20 (17.65M)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:14 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-35 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	996	23332	4.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1041	23332	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

[Porthos]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22423	23674	1251	5.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Regal:     179/5920  [3.02% sold]
Matinee:    61/1535  [3.97% | 4.88% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22354	23674	1320	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

Regal:      196/5920  [3.31% sold]
Matinee:    72/1535  [4.69% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

FWIW, I think there's something of a Halo Effect going on right now with MoM and JW3 (as well as TG:M).  I think there are a non-zero percentage of folks who are going to the theaters and thinking to themselves "Well, I'm already here to see MoM, might as well buy JW3/TG:M tickets while I'm here." 

 

One of the few reasons I can come up with concerning this mini-boost JW3 has seen yesterday and today.  There's more factors at play for TG:M (more on that in the next post), but I also think the halo is helping there as well.

 

Will this just end up cannibalizing sales that would have occurred anyway in the next couple of weeks, which in turn leads to a slightly larger dip than might be expected in the "slow period"/"long tail"?  Find out soon enuf.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/6/2022 at 12:17 AM, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	33923	36222	2299	6.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

390

 

Day 3 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	418.76		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		4407	49.63%		31.13m
NTTD	468.23		56	491		0/135	20500/20991	2.34%		3737	61.52%		29.03m
Batsy	67.78		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	19.55%		14.64m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 3 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	145.99		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		9196	25.00%		20.18m
TG:M (adj)	---		373	2187		0/222	28827/31014	7.05%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:         583/2477 [23.54% sold] [+96 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1716/33745 [5.09% sold] [+294 tickets]
    
Regal:       264/10512  [2.51% sold]
Matinee:    212/4978  [4.26% | 9.22% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yes that is the correct number of seats sold!  Was buoyed by a large amount of sales at the Early Access showing at the local TrueIMAX indie (44 seats ftr), but still... Even without that boost, there were a whole lotta sold tickets today.  Just remarkable locally, really.

 

Anywho, gonna shift over to T-x starting on, oh let's say Saturday.

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	33617	36222	2605	7.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

306

 

T-20 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	446.83		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4407	56.25%		33.22m
Batsy	80.53		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	22.16%		17.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Top Gun: Maverick tickets have been on sale for two more days than The Batman's had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, not counting the two days of sales for The Batman that were restricted to early access shows.

 

T-20 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	127.65		77	1942		0/105	16676/18618	10.43%		9196	28.33%		17.64m
TG:M (adj)	---		292	2479		0/222	28535/31014	7.99%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets had been on sale for four more days than Top Gun: Maverick's have been on sale at this point in pre-sales.

 

Tuesday Sales:        636/2477 [25.68% sold]    [+53 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1969/33745 [5.83% sold] [+253 tickets]
    
Regal:       300/10512  [2.85% sold]
Matinee:    163/4384  [3.72% | 6.26% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Lady Gaga, her power?!??

 

---

 

Decided to rip off the band-aid and switch to T-x comps a day early.  Ironically enuf, doing that more or less harmonized The Batman comp and the Black Widow comp.  The F9 comp is now even worse, of course, but I'm keeping it around, though I'm not entirely sure why.  Did get rid of the NTTD comp, and I might end up losing the F9 comp after all, depending on just how much it moves.

 

Anyway, whether it's world premiere buzz/social media embargo lift still lingering, halo effects from MoM, or just lots of folks interested locally, this is still doing boffo numbers here. No other way to put it.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Fri)	PLF	86	1,049	8,076	17,872	45.19%	$15.48	$125,039.59
		Standard	187	1,574	7,872	25,508	30.86%	$11.71	$92,217.89
	DS 2 (Fri) Total		273	2,623	15,948	43,380	36.76%	$13.62	$217,257.48

 

Matinee breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Fri)	N	127	1,358	11,685	20,301	57.56%	$14.47	$169,119.17
		Y	146	1,265	4,263	23,079	18.47%	$11.29	$48,138.31
	DS 2 (Fri) Total		273	2,623	15,948	43,380	36.76%	$13.62	$217,257.48

 

Friday T-0 comps

 - Spider-Man - .734x (52.826m)

 - Batman - 1.62x (56.7m)

 

Adjusted Friday comps

 - Spider-Man - 47.625m

 - Batman - 47.215m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sat)	PLF	86	9,108	9,108	17,872	50.96%	$14.92	$135,903.96
		Standard	177	8,764	8,764	24,447	35.85%	$10.53	$92,308.34
	DS 2 (Sat) Total		263	17,872	17,872	42,319	42.23%	$12.77	$228,212.30

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sat)	N	123	8,319	8,319	19,965	41.67%	$14.91	$124,021.21
		Y	140	9,553	9,553	22,354	42.74%	$10.91	$104,191.09
	DS 2 (Sat) Total		263	17,872	17,872	42,319	42.23%	$12.77	$228,212.30

 

Saturday T-0 comps

 

No Way Home - .843x (62.313m)

Batman - 1.562x (67.586m)

 

Adjusted T-0 comps (adjusted for Fri multiplier)

 

No Way Home - 64.88m

Batman - 65.55m

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-1 Saturday(331 showings): 11841(+2560)/79673

1.54x Batman T-1 (66.44M)

0.507x NWH T-1 (37.43M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex Saturday(336 showings)

 

15403(+3562)/80334

 

1.40x Batman T-0 (60.74M)

0.517x NWH T-0 (38.19M)

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(550 showings): 39102(+5500)/69506 ATP: $14.23

1.18x Batman T-1 (51.24M)

0.893x NWH T-1 (65.97M)

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse Saturday(550 showings)

 

43992(+4890)/69506 ATP: $14.19

 

1.27x Batman T-0 (54.75M)

0.875x NWH T-0 (64.63M)

 

I counted Batman a little later than this. So, I missed a few Drafthouse showings but didn't miss any Megaplex. The Drafthouse comp would probably actually be low 53Ms, and Megaplex mid-high 62Ms. Based on that, I'll go with 61.5-63M for Saturday

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New*	% Sold
T-12	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	33	4	4.21%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	2	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	95	22	12.04%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	147	28	6.75%
T-13	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	70	2	4.52%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	59	3	4.87%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,093	87	10	7.96%
	Downton 2 Total		19	29	3,855	216	15	5.60%
T-18	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	5	7	961	180	51	18.73%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	64	22	30.77%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	152	54	36.89%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		8	10	1,581	396	127	25.05%
T-19	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	245	69	36	28.16%
		Phoenix	2	2	434	69	56	15.90%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	30	28	25.42%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		5	5	797	168	120	21.08%
T-20	Top Gun 2	Jacksonville	7	111	18,617	438	172	2.35%
		Phoenix	6	68	13,195	338	106	2.56%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,176	364	138	4.45%
	Top Gun 2 Total		21	248	39,988	1,140	416	2.85%
T-34	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	372	22	2.38%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	368	49	2.31%
		Raleigh	8	65	7,415	358	62	4.83%
	JW3 Dominion Total		20	263	39,031	1,098	133	2.81%
T-34	JW3+JP	Jacksonville	2	2	225	93	22	41.33%
		Phoenix	5	5	564	219	29	38.83%
		Raleigh	2	2	188	84	2	44.68%
	JW3+JP Total		9	9	977	396	53	40.53%
T-6	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	12	12	0.64%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	7	7	0.41%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,504	14	14	0.93%
	Firestarter Total		19	49	5,092	33	33	0.65%

*New sales since Wednesday (except for JW3 which are from Tuesday).

 

Firestarter T-6 comps

 - Candyman - .347x (660k)

 - Resident Evil - .623x (582k)

 - The Night House - 2.357x (613k)

 

Downton EA T-12 comps

 - Sonic EA - .1.34x (1.697m)

 - NTTD EA - 1.4x (1.54m)

 

Downton T-13 comps

 - No Time to Die - .527x (2.74m)

 - F9 - .337x (2.4m)

 - Sonic 2 - .6x (2.99m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) T-20 comps

 - Black Widow - .798x (10.53m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .62x (10.88m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.35x (23.81m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	37	4	4.73%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	0	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	110	15	13.94%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	166	19	7.62%
T-12	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	74	4	4.77%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	59	0	4.87%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,093	95	8	8.69%
	Downton 2 Total		20	29	3,855	228	12	5.91%
T-17	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	5	7	961	198	18	20.60%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	74	10	35.58%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	167	15	40.53%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		8	10	1,581	439	43	27.77%
T-18	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	245	74	5	30.20%
		Phoenix	2	2	434	74	5	17.05%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	30	0	25.42%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		5	5	797	178	10	22.33%
T-19	Top Gun 2	Jacksonville	7	111	18,617	488	50	2.62%
		Phoenix	6	68	13,195	349	11	2.64%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,176	399	35	4.88%
	Top Gun 2 Total		21	248	39,988	1,236	96	3.09%
T-33	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	376	4	2.40%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	370	2	2.32%
		Raleigh	8	65	7,415	394	36	5.31%
	JW3 Dominion Total		20	263	39,031	1,140	42	2.92%
T-33	JW3+JP	Jacksonville	2	2	225	93	0	41.33%
		Phoenix	5	5	564	221	2	39.18%
		Raleigh	2	2	188	84	0	44.68%
	JW3+JP Total		9	9	977	398	2	40.74%
T-5	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	12	0	0.64%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	7	0	0.41%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,586	14	0	0.88%
	Firestarter Total		20	50	5,174	33	0	0.64%

 

 

Firestarter T-5 comps

 - Candyman - .314x (597k)

 - Resident Evil - .452x (423k)

 - The Night House - 2.2x (572k)

 

Downton EA T-11 comps

 - Sonic EA - .54x (686k)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 

Downton T-12 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .324x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .603x (3m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) T-19 comps

 - Black Widow - .814x (10.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.34x (233.72m)

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .297x (2.11m)

 - Ghostbusters - .478x (1.984m)

 - NTTD - .417x (2.17m)

 - Dune - .414x (2.114m)

[BruiseCruise]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	37	4	4.73%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	0	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	110	15	13.94%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	166	19	7.62%
T-12	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	74	4	4.77%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	59	0	4.87%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,093	95	8	8.69%
	Downton 2 Total		20	29	3,855	228	12	5.91%
T-17	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	5	7	961	198	18	20.60%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	74	10	35.58%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	167	15	40.53%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		8	10	1,581	439	43	27.77%
T-18	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	245	74	5	30.20%
		Phoenix	2	2	434	74	5	17.05%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	30	0	25.42%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		5	5	797	178	10	22.33%
T-19	Top Gun 2	Jacksonville	7	111	18,617	488	50	2.62%
		Phoenix	6	68	13,195	349	11	2.64%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,176	399	35	4.88%
	Top Gun 2 Total		21	248	39,988	1,236	96	3.09%
T-33	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	376	4	2.40%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	370	2	2.32%
		Raleigh	8	65	7,415	394	36	5.31%
	JW3 Dominion Total		20	263	39,031	1,140	42	2.92%
T-33	JW3+JP	Jacksonville	2	2	225	93	0	41.33%
		Phoenix	5	5	564	221	2	39.18%
		Raleigh	2	2	188	84	0	44.68%
	JW3+JP Total		9	9	977	398	2	40.74%
T-5	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	12	0	0.64%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	7	0	0.41%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,586	14	0	0.88%
	Firestarter Total		20	50	5,174	33	0	0.64%

 

 

Firestarter T-5 comps

 - Candyman - .314x (597k)

 - Resident Evil - .452x (423k)

 - The Night House - 2.2x (572k)

 

Downton EA T-11 comps

 - Sonic EA - .54x (686k)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 

Downton T-12 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .324x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .603x (3m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) T-19 comps

 - Black Widow - .814x (10.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.34x (233.72m)

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .297x (2.11m)

 - Ghostbusters - .478x (1.984m)

 - NTTD - .417x (2.17m)

 - Dune - .414x (2.114m)

 

[Maggie]

So if i'm reading it correctly, looks around 10M previews for TG2, right? I mean the F9 comparison is too crazy to even entertain it

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So if i'm reading it correctly, looks around 10M previews for TG2, right? I mean the F9 comparison is too crazy to even entertain it

 

We're 20 days away still, but yes something in the $10-15M range is likely. From what I've heard, the movie is being very well received so I imagine once marketing and reviews kick in that'll juice it even more. 

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So if i'm reading it correctly, looks around 10M previews for TG2, right? I mean the F9 comparison is too crazy to even entertain it

I think previews will comfortably cross 10nm. How high we dont know for now. Let us wait until close to release to hone in on a number. Including early shows its ahead of BW for now. That operated in a constrained environment and so final week sales were good but not crazy strong. 

Edited May 7, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think previews will comfortably cross 10nm. How high we dont know for now. Let us wait until close to release to hone in on a number. Including early shows its ahead of BW for now. That operated in a constrained environment and so final week sales was good but not crazy strong. 

Question: which demo is more inclined to purchase tickets in advance: older or younger?

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Question: which demo is more inclined to purchase tickets in advance: older or younger?

I think the younger crowd is likely to book early. That said this has 80s nostalgia in play and so one can never know for sure. Let us wait until OW to get demo breakdown. 

[Alex SciChannel]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	37	4	4.73%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	0	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	110	15	13.94%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	166	19	7.62%
T-12	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	74	4	4.77%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	59	0	4.87%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,093	95	8	8.69%
	Downton 2 Total		20	29	3,855	228	12	5.91%
T-17	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	5	7	961	198	18	20.60%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	74	10	35.58%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	167	15	40.53%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		8	10	1,581	439	43	27.77%
T-18	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	245	74	5	30.20%
		Phoenix	2	2	434	74	5	17.05%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	30	0	25.42%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		5	5	797	178	10	22.33%
T-19	Top Gun 2	Jacksonville	7	111	18,617	488	50	2.62%
		Phoenix	6	68	13,195	349	11	2.64%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,176	399	35	4.88%
	Top Gun 2 Total		21	248	39,988	1,236	96	3.09%
T-33	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	376	4	2.40%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	370	2	2.32%
		Raleigh	8	65	7,415	394	36	5.31%
	JW3 Dominion Total		20	263	39,031	1,140	42	2.92%
T-33	JW3+JP	Jacksonville	2	2	225	93	0	41.33%
		Phoenix	5	5	564	221	2	39.18%
		Raleigh	2	2	188	84	0	44.68%
	JW3+JP Total		9	9	977	398	2	40.74%
T-5	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	12	0	0.64%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	7	0	0.41%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,586	14	0	0.88%
	Firestarter Total		20	50	5,174	33	0	0.64%

 

 

Firestarter T-5 comps

 - Candyman - .314x (597k)

 - Resident Evil - .452x (423k)

 - The Night House - 2.2x (572k)

 

Downton EA T-11 comps

 - Sonic EA - .54x (686k)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 

Downton T-12 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .324x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .603x (3m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) T-19 comps

 - Black Widow - .814x (10.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.34x (233.72m)

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .297x (2.11m)

 - Ghostbusters - .478x (1.984m)

 - NTTD - .417x (2.17m)

 - Dune - .414x (2.114m)

JW Dominion looking pretty gud. Could see it beating the JW 2015 18.5M previews with the extended times starting at 4pm instead of 7pm. Because JW is more walkup heavy is it likely that previews will be higher than TG2?

 

TG2: 13M - 16M?

 

[Derpity]

5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Based on that, I'll go with 61.5-63M for Saturday

 

My extrapolation based on your extrapolation would be a $202m OW 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/5/2022 at 9:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Top Gun 2 Alpha 

Tuesday - 13542/52549 327323.71 228 shows

Wednesday - 5885/37106 80965.75 176 shows

Thursday previews - 29455/700905 530303.01 3594 shows

 

Top Gun 2 Alpha

Tuesday - 16198/50169 389393.69 221 shows

Wednesday  - 6795/37405 93359.27 177 shows

Thursday Previews - 35747/702696 640264.39 3602 shows

 

I would say pretty good boost in past 2 days(slightly under 48 hours). Hopefully reviews are fairly good and it has good final week push. I think low teens including early shows are in play at the moment. 

[Alex SciChannel]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Top Gun 2 Alpha

Tuesday - 16198/50169 389393.69 221 shows

Wednesday  - 6795/37405 93359.27 177 shows

Thursday Previews - 35747/702696 640264.39 3602 shows

 

I would say pretty good boost in past 2 days(slightly under 48 hours). Hopefully reviews are fairly good and it has good final week push. I think low teens including early shows are in play at the moment. 

What internal multiplier from previews to weekend would even be used for a movie like this. 10x like MI - Fallout?

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

What internal multiplier from previews to weekend would even be used for a movie like this. 10x like MI - Fallout?

Somewhere in the ballpark. I would say 9-10x.