BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[MinaTakla]

1 minute ago, HH84 said:

The last week Pets did benefit from summer breaks everywhere: On thursday school started in the first states and over the next weeks more states will follow. So the results during the week should get worse compared to the weekend.

How many admissions do you expect it to end up with in Germany by the end of its run?

[el sid]

1 hour ago, HH84 said:

The last week Pets did benefit from summer breaks everywhere: On thursday school started in the first states and over the next weeks more states will follow. So the results during the week should get worse compared to the weekend.

Yes, that's true and I expected a good result but not 425k admissions.
At least in Bavaria (the second biggest state of Gemany) the summer holidays just started. And in Austria the summer holidays also do not end before (the middle of) September.
Which is one factor why Pets stayed completely flat in Austria in its second weekend = the last weekend with 67k admissions.

Overall I'm not so sure if holidays are always that positive for films. When it comes to family film I would say holidays help more than they damage. But in terms of other genres the numbers of admissions could remain almost constant because of the many people (especially students and pupils) who use their vacation to travel to other states or countries or prefer summer parties etc. instead of going to the theaters.

[MinaTakla]

Weekend actuals:

 

No.	visitors weekend	%	cinemas	cut	Visitors to Sunday	week	Title (Distributor)	Boxoffice in €  Weekend	Boxoffice in €  until Sunday		Possible Final Result in thousands. Visitors	RT	IMDB
1	437 855	-38	730	600	1572645	2	Pets (U)	3896515	13726783		4,000	74	6.8
2	139 427	-37	598	233	978 615	3	Star Trek Beyond (PAR)	1533922	10665358		1,250	84	7.5
3	125 227	---	584	214	125 227	1	Ghostbusters (COL)	1246570	1246570		400	73	5.5
4	121 987	-35	748	163	2387834	6	Ice Age - collision ahead! (FOX)	926 373	19073440		2,750	12	5.8
5	104 802	---	278	377	105 463	1	Lights Out (WB)	925 796	929 809		400	76	6.9
6	103 482	-38	450	230	371 335	2	Legend of Tarzan (WB)	1044210	3638478		600	35	6.6
7	95,115	-6	650	146	2022880	7	A whole half a year (WB)	773 837	15867298		2,250	58	7.6
8th	82,852	-49	536	155	1315223	4	Independence Day - Recurring (FOX)	891 258	13998256		1,500	32	5.5
9	50,676	-20	262	193	276 853	3	Breakfast at Monsieur Henri (NV)	411 175	2059213		600	-	6.7
10	44,125	-12	182	242	318 085	4	Toni Erdmann (NFP)	419 259	2914421		600	91	8.6
11	24,439	-51	524	47	237 779	3	BFG - Big Friendly Giant (NCO)	195 357	1985681		300	74	6.8
12	18,661	-44	192	97	906 420	8th	Central Intelligence (U)	165 119	7285415		950	66	6.6
13	17,604	-40	331	53	477 098	5	Emerald Green (CON)	140 762	3626255		525	-	6.2
14	17,140	---	78	220	19,845	1	Julieta (TOB)	137 221	155 082		100	67	7.3
15	13,901	+12	43	323	614 861	22	Pear Cake with lavender (NV)	97,529	4502459		650	-	6.8
16	13,812	---	94	147	29,994	1	Maggie's plan (MFA)	104 778	202 090		75	86	6.5
17	11,390	-50	205	56	700 336	8th	Conjuring 2 (WB)	109 192	6260269		725	80	7.8
18	10,392	-45	471	22	129 548	4	Mullewapp - A beautiful mess (SC)	63,756	808 718		200	-	5.2
19	8,718	---	85	103	24,964	1	Collide (UNI)	73,550	156 066		50	-	6.1
20	6,009	-17	92	65	64,563	4	Travelled with Jacqueline (ALM)	45.819	445 362		100	-	6.8

[Omni]

Weather can change things big time in Germany (and Europe in general), but Pets should achieve approssimately a 5.5 multiplier.

Among films opening in the middle of summer, Dragon Trainer had a slightly worse 2nd weekend hold and finished with a 5.2x, Smurfs had a better 2nd weekend hold but collapsed the weekend after and therefore didn't even manage a 4.5x. Both of them showed similar strength on weekdays. Cars 2 was a badly received crappy sequel, so it doesn't count.

As long as it stays above 300K admissions next weekend, 4M is still doable.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Sorry I was travelling for some days so no updates but now I'm back - here we go:

 

Germany's Top20 last weekend

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The Secret Life of Pets	437.855	730	600	1.572.645	13.726.783	-38	2
2	Star Trek 3	139.427	598	233	978.615	10.665.358	-37	3
3	Ghostbusters	125.227	584	214	125.227	1.246.570	-	1
4	Ice Age 5	121.987	748	163	2.387.834	19.073.440	-35	6
5	Lights Out	104.802	278	377	105.463	929.809	-	1
6	Legend of Tarzan	103.482	450	230	371.335	3.638.478	-38	2
7	Me Before You	95.115	650	146	2.022.880	15.867.298	-6	7
8	Independence Day 2	82.852	536	155	1.315.223	13.998.256	-49	4
9	L'Etudiante et Monsieur Henri	50.676	262	193	276.853	2.059.213	-20	3
10	Toni Erdmann	44.125	182	242	318.085	2.914.421	-12	4
11	The BFG	24.439	524	47	237.779	1.985.681	-51	3
12	Central Intelligence	18.661	192	97	906.420	7.285.415	-44	8
13	Smaragdgrün	17.604	331	53	477.098	3.626.255	-40	5
14	Julieta	17.140	78	220	19.845	155.082	-	1
15	Le Goût des merveilles	13.901	43	323	614.861	4.502.459	+12	22
16	Maggie's Plan	13.812	94	147	29.994	202.090	-	1
17	Conjuring 2	11.390	205	56	700.336	6.260.269	-50	8
18	Mullewapp	10.392	471	22	129.548	808.718	-45	4
19	Collide	8.718	85	103	24.964	156.066	-	1
20	La vache	6.009	92	65	64.563	445.362	-17	4

 

A comparatively good weekend, even if family fare (among them #1 Pets) suffered a lot (BFG had the hardest drop in the Top20). WOM hit Me BeforeYou keeps chugging along and has now passed 2mil total, a real surprise hit out of nowhere as happens sometimes. Ice Age 5 has found its pace and makes up (a bit) in legs what it missed on opening weekend. Among openers, Ghostbusters missed even my modest expectations while Lights Out did a bit better than expected.

 

Next weekend: Three interesting releases - Jason Bourne is a bit of a wild card; the original Bourne movies were successful, but they're old news, and Matt Damon's big hits are a few years back, too - so I'd consider everything over a 400k opening weekend a success. This should be enough for #1. For TMNT2 I see 200k as the bar for success - the first one wasn't that well liked and this one has a worse opening date. The third opener, french comedy Retour chez ma mère, might end up as the winner - not on opening weekend of course, but in total admissions over their runs. The trailer was well received and if the movie delivers, we might have another WOM hit on our hands. Reviews were somewhat reserved so probably not, but the Germans realy dig those rather broad french comedies ...

[HH84]

On 8.8.2016 at 7:44 PM, MinaTakla said:

How many admissions do you expect it to end up with in Germany by the end of its run?

I would say 3.8-3.9M and with a chance for 4M if the weather is mainly bad the next weeks.

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Pets - 400k admissions (-10%)

#2: Bourne - 300k (was hoping for more ...)

#3: TMNT2 - 120k (ouchhh)

#4: Schweinskopf - 110k (sensational)

#5: IA5 - 100k (-20%)

#6: ST3 - 75k (-45% - crosses the million but still meh)

 

Good hold for Pets if true, but "Schweinskopf al dente", the 3rd entry in the Rita Falk crime comedy adaptions, is the story of the weekend ... the bavarian series keeps expanding! Fun movies, too, even if the production quality is more TV than cinema

[el sid]

Maybe that „Schweinskopf al dente“ success story is of lower interest for the people not living in southern Germany or Austria but I live in Bavaria and so... ;):
Schweinskopf al dente started in only 149 theaters in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg (Winterkartoffelknödel in 2014 in 132 theaters) although both predecessor of this mostly well received crime-comedy-book series with local color had more than 500k admissions. Perhaps it wouldn't be so popular in other German states as in Bavaria but for example the crime-comedy-tv-serial „Der Bulle von Tölz“ also had excellent tv ratings in Germany as a whole for years. I think they should have tried a bigger release. But probably „Schweinskopf al dente“ will see an expansion like its predecessor over the next weeks.
It had 24k admissions yesterday, almost as many as TMNT 2.

Some other Thursday admission numbers (actuals):
Jason Bourne: 70k (New)
TMNT 2: 27k (New)
Pets: 85k (last Thursday 95k)
Star Trek Beyond: 16k (l.T. 30k)

 

 

Edited August 12, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Definitely a nice local phenomenon, those Bavarian crime comedies, and they do quite well in Austria, too (most Austrians belong to the bajuvaric dialect group after all). I really liked the first two entries and hope to watch this one on Monday or Tuesday (a little short on time atm)

[el sid]

The 2nd trend:

#1 Pets 375k
#2 Jason Bourne 300k
#3 TMNT2 120k
#4 Schweinskopf al dente 120k → :)
#5 Ice Age 5 90k
#6 Star Trek Beyond 75k
#7 Lights Out 70k – a nice hold for a horror film
#8 Me Before You 60k
#9 Ghostbusters 60k – no legs
#10 Legend of Tarzan 60k
#11 Frühstück bei Monsieur Henri 42.5k
#12 Toni Erdmann 40k
#13 Independence Day 2 40k
#14 Willkommen im Hotel Mama 25k

 

[efialtes76]

Amazing run for Me Before You.

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates lower for everything ... weather too fine on Sat+Sun

[IndustriousAngel]

Preliminary results for Germany's weekend:

#1: Pets - 360k (-18%, nice)

#2: Bourne - 285k (not a flop but far from a success)

#3: TMNT2 - 120k (might be called a flop)

#4: Schweinskopf - 105k (nice success, fine PTA with less than 150 theaters)

#5: IA5 - 85k (-30%, not as good as Pets but not bad either)

#6: ST3 - 75k (-46% ... crosses 1mil total but is fading quickly)

[efialtes76]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Preliminary results for Germany's weekend:

#1: Pets - 360k (-18%, nice)

#2: Bourne - 285k (not a flop but far from a success)

#3: TMNT2 - 120k (might be called a flop)

#4: Schweinskopf - 105k (nice success, fine PTA with less than 150 theaters)

#5: IA5 - 85k (-30%, not as good as Pets but not bad either)

#6: ST3 - 75k (-46% ... crosses 1mil total but is fading quickly)

SS will be number 1 by a mile.

[Aristis]

It's so hard not to follow BO when being on vacation...

 

Pets is doing good and should be still on course for 3,5M to 4M. All depends on weather I don't think there's direct competition the next time and it will stay as the number one family movie.

TMNT2 could be expected...

IA5 is doing great - should have been much more already but it had only 443k OW so 2,55M now is a good result. It will have a 6x multipler soon.

Ghosbusters is a disaster! More than 50% drop after 125k OW... It won't get 10% of the first Ghostbusters neither 20% of the second (which fell by 50% from the first)

Lights out has a good 2nd weekend drop (-33%) and MBY is a phenomenon! It fell by 37% this week but should have 2,1M admissions already! It had 242k admissions OW (342k with previews). It's a great and unexpected result.

 

And at last there are a few weekends that are up from last year!

[MinaTakla]

Weekend actuals and the final column has Mark G's projections for how much each film will make by the end of its run

 

No.	visitors weekend	%	cinemas	cut	Visitors to Sunday	week	Title (Distributor)	Boxoffice in €  Weekend	Boxoffice in €  until Sunday		Mark G's projection for end of run (in 1000s)	RT	IMDB
1	365 076	-17	742	492	2219423	3	Pets (U)	3145636	19084386		4,000
2	284 589	---	528	539	284 589	1	Jason Bourne (U)	2627220	2627220		1,000
3	108 399	---	432	251	118.100	1	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - Out of the Shadows (PAR)	1074631	1167689		350
4	95,888	---	149	644	111 143	1	Schweinskopf al dente (NCO)	764 920	878 496		600
5	87,012	-29	715	122	2560206	7	Ice Age - collision ahead! (FOX)	651 500	20317766		2,850
6	76,536	-45	521	147	1131031	4	Star Trek Beyond (PAR)	846 733	12250832		1,250
7	71,282	-32	284	251	222 141	2	Lights Out (WB)	632 449	1894032		400
8th	62,993	-34	598	105	2144515	8th	A whole half a year (WB)	521 826	16807661		2,350
9	62,712	-50	592	106	250 962	2	Ghostbusters (COL)	595 310	2389312		400
10	56,676	-45	450	126	476 756	3	Legend of Tarzan (WB)	570 804	4631998		600
11	42,701	-48	400	107	1397868	5	Independence Day - Recurring (FOX)	452 974	14824709		1,500
12	38,087	-25	282	135	348 522	4	Breakfast at Monsieur Henri (NV)	308 821	2609740		600
13	37,226	-16	186	200	385 383	5	Toni Erdmann (NFP)	347 542	3515315		600
14	16,610	---	118	141	32,319	1	Welcome to Hotel Mama (ALM)	131 228	222 056		100
15	14,240	-42	386	37	269 383	4	BFG - Big Friendly Giant (NCO)	110 199	2221204		300
16	12,703	-26	82	155	45,356	2	Julieta (TOB)	102 617	348 407		100
17	10,440	-41	249	42	500 793	6	Emerald Green (CON)	84,176	3802586		525
18	9,206	---	68	135	9,206	1	The Last: Naruto (KSM)	123 656	123 656		15
19	9,171	-34	94	98	48,708	2	Maggies plan (MFA)	70,916	339 255		75
20	8,671	-54	132	66	923 886	9	Central Intelligence (U)	77,602	7425301		950

[IndustriousAngel]

Three new releases in the Top4 but Pets stay on top! Both wide openers stayed below expectations; local release Schweinskopf otoh had the highest PTA and should see some nice holds through the next weeks.

 

Next weekend: Against the weak competition, Suicide Squad as the single wide opener should have no problems conquering the market, the question is how high it can go. Sensible estimates have it in the 500-700k region which would be a nice success (I doubt it will have anything like Deadpool's legs, though).

[HH84]

First trend:

Suicide Squad 550k

Pets 275k

Bourne 160k

Conni & Co 115k

Schweinskopf 70k

Ice Age 5 55k

Captain Fantastic 45k

 

Will be interesting to see, how the weather will effect the next trends and how frontloaded Suicide Squad will be.

[picores]

That would be decent but unimpressive for SS. Let's see how the weekend trends.

Turtles 2 fade away....lol

Nice drop for Pets, okish for Bourne

[el sid]

The actual Thursday numbers (no estimates available yesterday, sorry):

New releases:

Suicide Squad: 115k (for comparison: BvS had 140k and 546k admissions on its weekend of release, Captain America: Civil War 90k/550k but had a better WOM)
Connie & Co. (570 theaters, a German teen film with ok reviews): 20k
Antonio, ihm schmeckt's nicht (313 theaters, a German culture clash comedy. The predecessor had 1.4 M admissions seven years ago but this time the reviews are way more terrible): 5k

Holdovers:

Jason Bourne: 31k (last Thursday 70k)
Pets: 50k (l.T. 85k)
Schweinskopf al dente: 13k – not a bad hold but could have been a little bit better

Suicide Squad started in 615 theaters and as you see above it has almost no competition. The reviews from critics are not very nice, I have to say that. Reviews from moviegoers are kinder: so far ca. 50% of the visitors say they are disappointed and the other half likes it. It's still too early to say which overall WOM it will have but I would guess it will be more like „ok“ instead of „very good“.