BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Aristis]

19 minutes ago, George Parr said:

3rd trend is up:

 

1) Dory 575k

2) Mrs. Peregrine's - 200k

3) Bad Moms - 160k

4) Sausage Party - 150k

5) Blair Witch - 70k

6) TM7 - 55k

7) Wardogs 55k

8) Pets 45k

9) Tschick - 45k

10) Snowden 45k

 

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

So about 35% drop for Dory. Not that great... But that's great for Mrs. Peregrine's! Could play well over the holidays

[IndustriousAngel]

A little adendum from Austria: September was , sadly, the worst on in recent history (the worst September, not month ... June was worse). At least Dory is doing fine (might hit 600k total) so maybe October can turn the tide a bit.

[IndustriousAngel]

Weekend numbers for Germany follow the latest estimates, Dory and Peregrine even a bit higher - nice!

 

In Austria we had a good weekend once more, with Dory and Moms dropping less than 20% (both doing a lot better than in Germany); Peregrine opens to #3 with similar numbers as in Germany. So hopefully we really get a strong October ... theaters really could use some good business!

Edited October 10, 2016 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany’s Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Finding Dory	577.804	777	744	1.943.792	16.990.481	-34	2
2	Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children	206.127	514	401	217.662	2.255.644	-	1
3	Bad Moms	164.249	495	332	834.966	6.841.555	-29	3
4	Sausage Party	130.567	409	319	162.853	1.288.840	-	1
5	Blair Witch	72.042	255	283	72.042	649.005	-	1
6	War Dogs	58.591	240	244	211.295	1.819.970	-41	2
7	The Magnificent Seven	57.635	544	106	400.886	3.594.779	-52	3
8	Tschick	50.726	503	101	452.736	3.372.522	-30	4
9	The Secret Life of Pets	49.655	558	89	3.621.574	29.876.111	-14	11
10	Snowden	48.618	288	169	279.782	2.496.757	-36	3
11	SMS für Dich	47.542	531	90	639.324	5.204.020	-53	4
12	Nerve	34.823	337	103	670.545	5.319.895	-52	5
13	The Purge 3	30.769	322	96	563.670	4.779.110	-66	4
14	Unsere  Zeit ist jetzt	23.029	211	109	23.698	200.602	-	1
15	Conni & Co	22.028	476	46	479.130	2.990.500	-15	8
16	Frantz	19.857	92	216	67.897	531.341	-24	2
17	Don't Breathe	18.022	269	67	447.094	3.818.489	-65	5
18	Cézanne et moi	17.619	77	229	18.582	145.458	-	1
19	Pete’s Dragon	11.163	292	88	266.032	1.947.607	-24	7
20	Schweinskopf al dente	11.158	140	80	516.204	3.947.081	-31	9

 

Not bad, that weekend – most releases including Dory dropped a bit harder than I hoped; as an exception Bad Moms is showing some tenacity in clinging to the top3. Strange that Pets and even Pete’s Dragon fell much softer than Dory ... let’s wait but I think 4mil total for Dory ist the lowest treshold. Miss Peregrine’s had a fine start and should see a good hold next weekend.

 

Next weekend: A rather interesting weekend is coming up! With Inferno we should see a new #1 – the first Brown adaption managed a 1,5mil opening weekend – the second one still 1mil – so, even if the downward trend continues, Inferno should be good for at least 500k; I’m hoping for a bit more (say, 750k) even if I have zero interest in the movie itself

Among other releases, domestic teen comedy Verrückt nach Fixi might see some success thanks to little competition in its demo – might be able to make the Top5. And Swiss Army Man is my personal favourite, but has a very limited target demo.

[el sid]

It was partly sunny here today but with a very cold wind.
These are the Thursday estimates (via insidekino.de forum):

New releases:

Inferno: 87k (starts in 660 theaters, very mediocre reviews; had no previews which means that the Thursday number will have a lower multiplier when it comes to the whole weekend; „The Da Vinci Code“ had 1.6M admissions on its first weekend and „Illuminati“ 1M)
Verrückt nach Fixi: 5k (390; pretty bad reviews)
Swiss Army Man: ?k (around 70; good reviews and - not surprising - several very positive but also some very negative user-reviews from sneaks)

Holdovers:

Dory: 20.5k evening only (Last Thursday: whole day 70k, evening only 19.5k)
Miss Peregrine's: 16 k (25k) - sorry I made a mistake, still not a bad hold and maybe this estimate is as much too low as it was last week
Sausage Party: 10k (19k)
Blair Witch (2016): 6k (10k)
Bad Moms: 24.5k(!) (22k)

 

So if these numbers vaguely hold Inferno will probably be only #3 in this film series but it will not see a too hefty decrease or stay under 500k admissions I think.
The holds (especially for Dory and Bad Moms) look good.

Edited October 13, 2016 by el sid

[HH84]

First trend:

Inferno 475k

FD 425k

MP 160k

BM 110k

SP 75k

 

In the IK-Forum a user posted yesterdays numbers and FD had 68k and Inferno 66k. Don't be surprised, if FD is also above Inferno for the whole weekend.

[el sid]

Yes, I would also bet on Dory. Inferno had no previews and so it was pressured to have a very good Thursday and that didn't work. Probably the reviews are just too muted and its target audience IS reading them.
But there's also a good news: Miss Peregrine's was again underestimated by far and had 25k admissions (so it stayed flat). Blickpunkt Film's weekend estimate is 200k but normally insidekino.de has the better projections.
Sausage Party had 12k admissions.
Sadly no word about Swiss Army Man so far.

Edited October 14, 2016 by el sid

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

Inferno 425k

Dory 425k (-26%)

Miss Peregrine's 160k (-22%/-27%)

Bad Moms 120k (-27%)

Sausage Party 80k (-39%/-51%)

Verrückt nach Fixi 60k

Pets 50k (+/-0%)

Blair Witch 40k (-44%)

Tschick 37,5k (-26%)

War Dogs 37,5k (-36%)

Snowden 25k (-48%)

M7 25k (-57%)

SMS für dich 25k (-48%)

 

Weather was good today - I don't know if those holds hold. But I'm hoping

Edited October 15, 2016 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

That's not good for Inferno at all ... good for Dory of course!

[Aristis]

Could Pets still reach Zoo? If it has 50k again this week there are probably less than 125k missing...

[IndustriousAngel]

Final trend, no big changes ... close race between Inferno and Dory for #1

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Final trend, no big changes ... close race between Inferno and Dory for #1

inferno may gross larger as the ticket price may be higher

[IndustriousAngel]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

inferno may gross larger as the ticket price may be higher

Possible, but Dory had a really high ticket price for a family release

[IndustriousAngel]

Final results see Dory in front with 415k admissions; Inferno dropped to 405k but should be leading in €. In Austria, Dory's lead was even more comfortable (50k vs. 40k)

 

Concerning Inferno: That's really a horrible drop from prior entries - down from 1.6mil and 1,0mil to 0,4mil - looking at this trend, a hypothetic sequel will open to negative admission numbers

[efialtes76]

Dory 415/2600
Inferno 405 
Peregrine 155/460
Bad Moms 115/1015
Sausage 82,5 
Fixi 55 
Blair Witch 42,5 
Pets 42,5 
War Dogs 37,5 
Tschick 32,5 
Snowden 27,5 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Finding Dory	413.471	783	528	2.601.388	22.416.355	-28	3
2	Inferno	407.745	662	616	407.745	3.718.940	-	1
3	Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children	155.864	523	298	462.979	4.668.025	-24	2
4	Bad Moms	114.181	489	233	1.015.046	8.296.965	-31	4
5	Sausage Party	81.967	401	204	286.911	2.300.579	-37	2
6	Verrückt nach Fixi	55.756	379	300	55.756	455.538	-	1
7	Blair Witch	43.160	263	164	135.445	1.190.130	-40	2
8	The Secret Life of Pets	41.912	528	79	3.694.881	30.364.510	-16	12
9	War Dogs	37.768	240	157	268.681	2.300.625	-36	3
10	Tschick	31.942	390	82	513.609	3.784.181	-37	5
11	Snowden	28.443	247	115	329.015	2.930.610	-42	4
12	SMS für Dich	25.113	344	73	689.247	5.603.551	-47	5
13	The Magnificent Seven	25.041	346	72	450.216	4.017.896	-57	4
14	Nerve	19.437	265	73	707.123	5.596.648	-44	6
15	Welcome to Norway	16.591	82	202	36.814	221.382	-	1
16	Conni & Co	15.525	392	40	507.997	3.166.260	-30	9
17	The Purge 3	14.874	238	62	587.315	4.979.129	-52	5
18	Frantz	14.268	103	139	92.886	722.274	-28	3
19	Cézanne et moi	12.717	78	163	41.911	317.513	-28	2
20	Die Welt der Wunderlichs	11.409	83	137	21.009	143.435	-	1

 

Both openers stayed below expectations and so Dory wins the weekend with a decent hold! But Peregrine's and Pets even dropped softer. Overall a good but not spectacular weekend, like so many before … especially Inferno was carrying some hopes; one more might-have-been blockbuster in a slow year.

 

Next weekend: Bridget Jones's Baby, The Accountant, Ouija: Origin of Evil, Trolls and some more family and arthouse stuff - with Dory and Inferno and Peregrine's still going strong (I hope) this will be a very crowded weekend and screen allocations are a gamble. With ladies' events, Bridget should be the strongest movie on Wednesday - easily - but I'm not sure who will win the weekend (Thu-Sun) - it's been an awful lot of years and Dory might very well stay on top for the 4th time despite a lot more competition in the family market!

[MinaTakla]

@IndustriousAngelWill Pets surpass Zootopia here?

[IndustriousAngel]

yes it will, but 4mil total are probably too far away at this point despite the good holds

[Aristis]

35 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

@IndustriousAngelWill Pets surpass Zootopia here?

I'm not Industrious but I'm answering

It really should:

   It had 3 very good holds in a row now (+6%, -14%, -16%)

   It is only 115k behind after 40k weekend and 30k midweek

   There is still more holiday

[Quigley]

Where is Dory's total headed?