BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Taruseth]

Also: Why the Bl**y F*** do movies open on a Wednesday?
DS2, Thor4, Black Panther, Avatar are all supposed to open on a Wednesday.

Only one of those I understand is Black Panther cause that Wednesday is a holiday in parts of Germany.

It's only lowering your opening weekend - well that only for the people that follow the box office - for all others it increases the numbers.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Also: Why the Bl**y F*** do movies open on a Wednesday?
DS2, Thor4, Black Panther, Avatar are all supposed to open on a Wednesday.

Only one of those I understand is Black Panther cause that Wednesday is a holiday in parts of Germany.

It's only lowering your opening weekend - well that only for the people that follow the box office - for all others it increases the numbers.

As per Mark, because you get higher % of GROSS for first 3 weeks of release in Germany and releasing on WED or TUE give you that one/two extra day with 3 Weeks i.e. 21 days. 

Other reason is you get a bigger number for opening weekend, even though you have deflated actual weekend for reporting purpose.

[Taruseth]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As per Mark, because you get higher % of GROSS for first 3 weeks of release in Germany and releasing on WED or TUE give you that one/two extra day with 3 Weeks i.e. 21 days. 

Other reason is you get a bigger number for opening weekend, even though you have deflated actual weekend for reporting purpose.

Oh, so the studios get a bit more.

So in 20 years movie will release on a Monday...

 

That's true most don't care about that.

Also the shift is pretty drastic - TFA and the likes had midnight previews on Thursday at 00:01. At one Cinema DS2 had midnight previews on Wednesday at 00:01, so not just a day before but also previews before that xD.

 

Also making it more unlikely to get an Opening Weekend of more than 1m.

 

[Taruseth]

40 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Thanks a lot (not) for writing this, i had actually succeded in forgetting these movies existed

Now you have to live again with the horror those movies are and they sold like 21m tickets combined HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA😈

 

Or you just go to the cinema to watch some movie

 

 

[altglascontainer]

Montags-Trend:

Doctor Strange 2 (800T), FB2 (ca. 112,5T), The Lost City (ca. 67,5T), Downton Abbey II (ca. 47,5T), Die Biene Maja (ca. 50T)

[Issac Newton]

WK: May 6-8, 2022 (Fri-Sun) [Austria]

#1 DS: MOM : €1,007,744 / €1,435,081

#2 Lost City : €151,013 / €814,072

#3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : €119,031 / €2,831,866

#4 Maya the Bee: The Golden Orb : €77,805 / €102,943

#5 Sonic 2 : €63,292 / €1,280,255

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Doctor Strange 2	638.287	649	983	799.293	8.723.490	-	1
2	Fantastic Beasts 3	112.877	657	172	2.484.721	25.167.035	-41	5
3	The Lost City	67.680	605	112	396.940	3.572.624	-35	3
4	Downton Abbey 2	48.315	466	104	145.467	1.438.771	-19	2
5	Die Biene Maja 2	38.436	588	65	50.136	359.041	-	1
6	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	33.485	607	55	865.709	7.001.600	-39	6
7	The Northman	27.957	382	73	173.145	1.656.741	-41	3
8	The Bad Boys	23.617	540	44	679.867	5.047.587	-34	8
9	Eingeschlossene Gesellschaft	19.993	580	34	255.158	2.271.843	-46	4
10	Rabiye Kurnaz gegen George W. Bush	15.792	175	90	60.889	497.031	-31	2
-	MET: Turandot (LEO)	12.093	197	61	12.093	358.524
11	Everything Everywhere All at Once	11.906	100	119	33.608	302.173	-8	2
12	Le Loup et le Lion	6.532	310	21	291.608	2.108.354	-46	8
13	The Batman	5.487	178	31	1.722.974	18.088.660	-67	10
14	Uncharted	3.945	141	28	1.504.448	13.649.003	-64	12

Apart from the very nice opening for Doctor Strange 2, this was a poor weekend … Austria with similar numbers. Considering the cirumstances, this was a really excellent OW for the latest Marvel product!

Next weekend: Weather should be more favourable to the movies, so expect good holds or maybe increases for family stuff. No really big openers, Firestarter and french comedy Pourris gâtés will probably be the biggest ones, #2 seems possible with FB3 dropping.

[IndustriousAngel]

well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops

first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%)

 

everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true

Edited May 13, 2022 by IndustriousAngel

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops

first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%)

 

everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true

FB3-70k(-38%)

[Brainbug]

8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops

first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%)

 

everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true

 

21 - 28 Celsius, enough wind to make the heat very enjoyable even between noon and 5 pm, no rain whatsoever ...

 

Just awful.

[Taruseth]

Sunday trend:

 

DSMoM: 315k (-51% or - 61% from WTFSS) total after the weekend should be 1250k

FB3: 72.5k (-36%) (total after the weekend should be around 2580k (or a couple k higher)

Lost City: 40k (-41%) (total ~450k)

Downton Abey II: 30k (-38%) (total ~195k)

 

As a comp FB3 had a 452k 2nd weekend and was at 1525k after it. And a 321k third weekend (and was at 2061k after that).

 

Honestly thinking DSMoM could end up just a bit above 2m.

FB3 might get to 2800k.

Lost City should get to 600k

Downton Abbey will hopefully get to 300k.

 

 

[el sid]

The Monday update:

 

#1 DSMoM 327.5k/1.27M total admissions 

#2 FB 3 72.5k/2.587,5M

#3 The Lost City 40k/452.5k

#4 Downton Abbey II 30k/195k

#5 Die Biene Maja - Das geheime Königreich 22.5/80k

...

Meine schrecklich verwöhnte Familie 22.5k

Willi und die Wunderkröte 12.5k

Firestarter 12k

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top10 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Doctor Strange 2	327.924	664	494	1.270.109	13.778.076	-49	2
2	Fantastic Beasts 3	72.884	642	114	2.588.739	26.174.764	-35	6
3	The Lost City	39.685	552	72	450.767	4.051.719	-41	4
4	Downton Abbey 2	30.795	545	57	196.911	1.931.527	-36	3
5	Die Biene Maja 2	23.396	629	37	80.147	570.676	-39	2
6	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	22.643	557	41	890.974	7.200.868	-32	7
7	The Bad Boys	17.836	505	35	700.076	5.190.266	-24	9
8	The Northman	15.414	336	46	198.109	1.890.491	-45	4
9	Firestarter	11.816	337	35	11.816	106.994	-	1
10	Everything Everywhere All at Once	11.139	136	82	51.773	466.275	-6	3

Horrible numbers … Austria a bit better but still not good.

Next weekend: No big openers again, domestic comedy Stasikomödie might be the biggest one, #3 is possible. Dog is also opening; while probably not a big success, animal movies tend to have a reliable audience here.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates for Germany's weekend from insidekino.de:

#1: DrStrange2 - 170k (-48%)

#2: FB3 - 42,5k (-42%)

#3: Dog - 47,5 incl. previews

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update - no big changes, depressing numbers overall ... it seems that where the weather isn't too fine for moviegoing, it's so bad you can't get to the movies either.

[Taruseth]

9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Saturday update - no big changes, depressing numbers overall ... it seems that where the weather isn't too fine for moviegoing, it's so bad you can't get to the movies either.

DS2 might actually struggle to reach 2M.

Might be at 1470k after the weekend. Would need to add 3.2x that weekend

3rd weekend of FB3 was worth 320k (for a 2061k total up to that point).

FB3 also not looking good. 2640k or so... will probably end around 2775k or so.

 

On 5/3/2022 at 9:53 PM, Taruseth said:

For future movies:

 

DSMOM T-6

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		5	163	1321	12,34%

 

 

DSMOM T-1

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		6	325	1491	21,80%

 

Might try to dig up my old comps and start with those - even though they were all pre-pandemic.

Some live seems to slowly get into it.

They now have an OV show on everyday but tomorrow :(.

Don't know if I should just go to one in German tomorrow evening or go Friday / Saturday evening.

 

DSMOM T-1 in Bremen - one of the cinemas has midnight previews in 1.5 hours.

Bremen is an odd one out: The cinemas with the most sold is the smallest (has 1863, the other two have 2785 and 3341 (that has the least sold it has three large halls with 572, 425 and 425 seats)

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		27	1793	10333	17,35%

TG2 is for Wednesday previews at for T-4

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		2	107	575	18,61%

 

 

Bigger comp Cinestar Bremen, Cinemax Bremen and Cinestar Frankfurt

 

On 12/18/2019 at 2:59 AM, Taruseth said:

Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

  Reveal hidden contents

CineStar Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 14:00: 22 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 43 / 425

3D 18:00: 56 / 322

3D 20:00: 307 / 425

3D 20:30: 148 / 572

 

2D 15:00: 30 / 425

2D 19:00: 185 / 425

Total: 922 / 3488 -> 26.4%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:00: 0 / 322

3D 16:00: 45 / 572

3D 17:00: 11 / 425

3D 18:00: 20 / 322

3D 20:00: 230 / 425

3D 20:30: 55 / 572

3D 21:30: 4 / 322

3D 22:30: 4 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 8 / 425

2D 19:00: 140 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 522 / 4531 -> 11.52%

 

Friday:

3D OV 20:30: 68 / 279

 

3D 14:00: 1 / 322

3D 16:00: 69 / 572

3D 17:00: 3 / 425

3D 18:00: 16 / 322

3D 20:00: 267 / 425

3D 20:30: 69 / 572

3D 21:30: 8 / 322

3D 22:30: 8 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 425

2D 19:00: 176 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 701 / 4810 -> 14.57%

 

 

Saturday:

3D 12:15: 44 / 572

3D 13:15: 4 / 425

3D 14:00: 6 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 10 / 425

3D 18:00: 18 / 322

3D 20:00: 228 / 425

3D 20:30: 49 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 3 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 28 / 425

2D 19:00: 195 / 425

2D 22:50: 4 / 425

Total: 727 / 5953 -> 12.21%

 

 

Sunday:

3D OV 20:30: 22 / 279

 

3D 12:15: 34 / 572

3D 13:15: 3 / 425

3D 14:00: 16 / 322

3D 16:00: 119 / 572

3D 17:00: 7 / 425

3D 18:00: 9 / 322

3D 20:00: 154 / 425

3D 20:30: 29 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 1 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 94 / 425

2D 19:00: 108 / 425

2D 22:50: 3 / 425

Total: 606 / 6232 -> 9.72%

 

TFSS: 2556 / 21526

WTFSS: 3479 / 25014

 

 

 

CinemaxX Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 10:00: 58 / 232

3D 15:00: 19 / 297

3D 16:00: 139 / 342

3D 17:00: 71 / 186

3D 20:00: 252 / 342

3D 20:50: 67 / 186

3D 22:30: 17 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 135 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 45 / 186

 

2D 10:30: 14 / 186

2D 14:00: 12 / 186

2D 17:30: 94 / 186

2D 19:00: 208 / 297

2D 20:30: 92 / 163

2D 22:45: 20 / 145

 

OV 2D 19:30: 13 / 186

 

Total: 1243 / 3417 -> 36.38%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:15: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 90 / 342

3D 17:00: 4 / 186

3D 20:00: 193 / 342

3D 20:30: 6 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 136 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 2 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 4 / 186

2D 17:30: 16 / 186

2D 19:00: 209 / 297

2D 22:00: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 15 / 186

 

Total: 677 / 2870 -> 23.59%

 

Friday:

3D 14:15: 4 / 145

3D 16:00: 117 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 224 / 342

3D 20:30: 26 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 131 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 6 / 186

2D 17:30: 15 / 186

2D 19:00: 196 / 297

2D 22:00: 18 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 7 / 186

 

Total: 761 / 2870 -> 26.52%

 

Saturday:

3D 11:30: 0 / 297

3D 14:30: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 127 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 165 / 342

3D 20:50: 22 / 186

3D 22:30: 35 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 90 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 1 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 0 / 342

2D 15:00: 20 / 297

2D 17:30: 17 / 186

2D 19:00: 194 / 297

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 16:20: 3 / 178

OV 2D 19:30: 8 / 186

 

Total: 697 / 3798 -> 18.35%

 

Sunday:

3D 11:30: 4 / 297

3D 14:30: 7 / 145

3D 16:00: 133 / 342

3D 17:00: 9 / 186

3D 20:00: 158 / 342

3D 20:50: 5 / 186

3D 22:30: 0 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 104 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 8 / 342

2D 15:00: 16 / 297

2D 17:30: 9 / 186

2D 19:00: 136 / 297

2D 20:30: 27 / 186

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:15: 7 / 186

 

Total: 623 / 3806 -> 16.37%

 

TFSS: 2758 / 13344

WTFSS: 4001 / 16761

 

 

Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

Wednesday:

3D OV 12:30: 72 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 77 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 189 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 86 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 139 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 512 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 178 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 104 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 14 / 624

3D 14:15: 44 / 351

3D 16:00: 100 / 624

3D 17:00: 46 / 195

3D 18:00: 161 / 351

3D 20:00: 463 / 624

3D 21:30: 145 / 351

3D 22:30: 62 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 36 / 344

2D 15:30: 55 / 344

2D 19:30: 209 / 344

2D 19:30: 29 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 60 / 202

2D OV 15:00: 59 / 202

2D OV 19:00: 163 / 202

2D OV 23:00: 34 / 195

 

Total: 3037 / 8790 -> 34.55%

 

Thursday:

3D OV 14:00: 22 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 126 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 3 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 19 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 459 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 14 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 102 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 24 / 351

3D 16:00: 134 / 624

3D 17:00: 6 / 195

3D 17:45: 12 / 351

3D 20:00: 414 / 624

3D 21:30: 20 / 351

3D 22:30: 39 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 344

2D 19:00: 199 / 344

2D 23:00: 3 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 144 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 2 / 195

 

Total: 1759 / 6978 -> 25.21%

 

Friday:

3D OV 14:00: 34 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 120 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 6 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 349 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 22 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 52 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 107 / 351

3D 16:00: 176 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 15 / 351

3D 20:00: 380 / 624

3D 21:30: 29 / 351

3D 22:30: 31 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 25 / 344

2D 19:00: 216 / 344

2D 23:00: 2 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 135 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 6 / 195

 

Total: 1716 / 6978 -> 24.595

 

Saturday:

3D OV 12:30: 0 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 75 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 180 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 0 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 18 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 223 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 9 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 20 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 7 / 624

3D 14:15: 49 / 351

3D 16:00: 202 / 624

3D 17:00: 4 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 285 / 624

3D 21:30: 7 / 351

3D 22:30: 25 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 2 / 344

2D 15:30: 11 / 344

2D 19:30: 139 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 10 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 18 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 84 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 4 / 195

 

Total: 1381 / 8790 -> 15.71%

 

Sunday:

3D OV 12:30: 8 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 68 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 132 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 0 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 153 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 2 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 2 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 19 / 624

3D 14:15: 64 / 351

3D 16:00: 235 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 137 / 624

3D 21:30: 2 / 351

3D 22:30: 10 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 3 / 344

2D 15:30: 5 / 344

2D 19:30: 81 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 1 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 5 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 95 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 0 / 195

 

Total: 1036 / 8790 -> 11.79%

 

TFSS: 5892 / 31536

WTFSS: 8965 / 40326

 

Total:

(T-0)

 

W: 1243 + 922 + 3073 = 5238 / 15695

Th: 677 + 522 + 1759 = 2958 / 14379

Fri: 761 + 701 + 1716 = 3178 / 14658

Sat: 697 + 727 + 1381 = 2805 / 18541

Sun: 623 + 606 + 1036 = 2265 / 18828

TFSS: 2758 + 2556 + 5892 = 11206 / 66406 -> 16.87%

WTFSS: 4001 + 3478 + 8965 = 16444 / 82101 -> 20.03%

 

In the following the italic ones are kinda useless (absolutely useless)

5-day comps (also taken on Tuesday evening):

TLK:

W: 2343 => 469k (only Wednesday)

TFSS: 1842 => 5608k (TFSS)

WTFSS: 4185 => 4445k (WTFSS)

 

Adjusted (only CS Bremen):

Endgame:

W w. P.: 1150 => 370k*

W: 585 => 728k

TFSS: 1848 => 2312k

WTFSS: 2998 => 2475k

 

All the following comps where are final ones(so Wednesday evening – 24 hours later than EP IX numbers)

Wend (wo Previews – only TFSS)

Aladdin: 493 => 6560k

John Wick 3: 967 => 3305k

Godzilla: 328 => 4797k

Rocketman: 175 => 7618k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 4174k

MIBI: 221 => 5713k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 13932k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 2363k

TLK: 2755 => 3749k

H&S: 1058 => 5209k

Hollywood: 1774 => 2773k 

TS 4: 388 => 6883k

 

Adjusted comps – without CS Bremen:

TFSS: 8650

WTFSS: 12966

 

Comps:

It 2: 1880 => 2715k (TFSS)

Joker: 4819 => 1510k (TFSS)

Joker w. P: 7040 => 1732k (WTFSS)

 

 

Puh, what can I say?

It doesn’t have Preview screenings, Endgame had really big ones.

Presales would be out of this world insane for every other movie, but for SW they are okay, I guess.

Right now, I’d hope for a 5-day opening above Endgame, but thinking it will open below and and probably just around Frozen II.

And thinking that the 4-day might be below both.

 

So maybe something like this:

OD: 375k

TFSS: 1250k

WTFSS: 1625k

 

(obviously hoping for something like this):

OD: 400k

TFSS: 1750k

WTFSS: 2150k

 

 

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		9	519	4158	12,48%

 

This movie completely confuses me, its Previews are over indexing at the Cinestar Bremen.

Cinemax Bremen: 91 

Cinestar Bremen: 205

Cinestar Frankfurt: 223

(TROS sold 3 times as much at CS F than CS B. And about a third more at CX B rather than less than half as much).

I don't have my not posted comps right now.

 

TFSS:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		43	394	21202	1,86%

Spoiler

CS Bremen:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		11	176	5731	3,07%

 

CX Bremen:

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		12	66	3664	1,80%

 

CS Frankfurt (Metropolis):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		20	152	11807	1,29%

The following comps are T-0

Aladdin: 493 => 230k

John Wick 3: 967 => 116k

Godzilla: 328 => 168k

Rocketman: 175 => 267k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 146k

MIBI: 221 => 201k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 491k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 83

TLK: 2755 => 132k

H&S: 1058 => 183k

Hollywood: 1774 => 98k 

TS 4: 388 => 242k

 

I know the comps don't fit, but I would't expect it to blow up to much and if I'd had to assume I would assume an OWend (TFSS) of around 400k.

I am thinking that the comps will increase quite nicely over the following days.

 

 

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

On 8/19/2019 at 11:04 AM, Taruseth said:

70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s.

But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy.

 

Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020?

 

 

I think 1991 would be the first year.

Well... that turned out true xD 

 

On 8/11/2019 at 10:53 PM, Taruseth said:

I am back with counting:

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

CineStar Bremen

Preview on Wednesday 14^thAugust 2019 2D:

(T-3) 19:30: 56 / 572 -> 9.7%

CinemaxX Bremen

Preview on Wednesday 14^thAugust 2019 2D:

(T-3):

OV 19:15: 7 / 178

OV 20:00: 137 / 297

19:30: 142 / 342

22:30: 2 / 145

Total: 288 / 962 -> 29.9%

 

CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt

Preview on Wednesday 14^thAugust 2019 2D:

(T-3):

 

OV 19:45: 407 / 624 (WOW, this is bloody insane)

19:30: 209 / 642

Total: 616 / 1266 -> 48.65%

 

This movie will have insane previews thinking maybe even something like up to 60-80k possible but I honestly don’t know about the weekend.

 

(T-3):

Total: 960

Preview comps:

Aladdin: 173 -> 130k

John Wick: 326 -> 133k

Okay, what the hell, this looks insane in previews but I think Frankfurt is probably just overperforming like crazy and that totally screws the picture.

At the Cinestar Bremen it’s at a third of what Pokeman was at and that would suggest previews below 20k.

Probably settling around 60-80k really is the best.

No predictions for the weekend yet but I think this might have solid shot at winning the weekend.

It 2:

CineStar Bremen

Preview on Wednesday 4^hSeptember 2019 2D:

(T-24):

DF 20:00: 8 / 425

22:30: 0 / 572

OV 22:30: 1 / 425

Total: 9 / 1422

CinemaxX Bremen

Preview on Wednesday 14^thAugust 2019 2D:

(T-24):

OV 22:45: 2 / 297

22:30: 6 / 342

Total: 8 / 639

 

CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt

Preview on Wednesday 14^thAugust 2019 2D:

(T-24):

DF 20:00: 12 / 642

DF OV 20:00: 13 / 624

22:30: 2 / 351

OV 22:30: 0 / 344

Total: 27 / 1961

 

(T-24)

Total: 44

Comps: Far From Home: 110 -> 22.5k 

Yeah, nop, this won’t happen

 

Previews for TG2 might be ending up around 60-80k

Edited May 21, 2022 by Taruseth

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

what's OW expectation? Good weather will play spoilsport but can it open to at least 400K. I am hopeful that it will have good legs considering the reviews. 

[IndustriousAngel]

Sunday updates from insidekino.de now have higher numbers for all releases; I guess weather conditions - still, far from a good weekend

[Taruseth]

On 5/22/2022 at 2:02 AM, keysersoze123 said:

^^^^

what's OW expectation? Good weather will play spoilsport but can it open to at least 400K. I am hopeful that it will have good legs considering the reviews. 

With Previews it should get to 400k. Not yet sold on 400k without.

I am not that certain about good legs - like they won't suck, most movies in Germany get a 3x and a lot get a 4x. Even DS3 should get a 3x from TFSS (needs 1915k for that).

FB3 will end up with a 3.8.

(Morbius got a 2.46x and that is utterly disastrous for Germany).

 

To say anything more I first want to see how it is doing, if there is any uptick visible.

 

So if its good it could do something like 400k (TFSS) and 1600k total (4x - would be slightly above average legs for the general genre - overall the legs would be slightly below average).

 

Multipliers for the yearly top 10s (alway from the actual weekend TFSS) 2010-2021

Spoiler

Regarding 2020 and 2021:

Some of them had their legs killed by Corona, Kangaroo opened in March 2020 (and dropped 79% on tis second weekend and the weekend after wards pretty much cinemas closed).

Tenet, Dune started on Wednesday

 

Movie 2021 Top 10: JB: NTTD SM:NWH F&F9 Dune School of Magic Animals Paw Patrol Venom II Kaiserschmarn House of Gucci Croods     2020 TOP 10: Bad Boys for Life Tenet Nightlife Sonic I Knives Out 1917 After Truth Dr. Dolittle Jim Knopf Kangaroo Chronicles	Total adm   6.037M 4.541M 1.968M 1.846M 1.718M   1.546M 1.169M 1.145M 1.142M 0.839M       1.820M 1.686M 1.414M 1.231M 1.215M 0.984M 0.949M 0.903M 0.825M 0.815M	O Weekend   1.195M 0.815M 0.525M 0.341M 0.246M   0.283M 0.291M 0.220M 0.141M 0.144M       0.439M 0.319M 0.306M 0.363M 0.230M 0.171M 0.238M 0.250M 0.151M 0.321M	Multiplier   5.05 5.57 3.75 5.41 6.98   5.46 4.02 5.20 8.10 5.83       4.15 5.29 4.62 3.39 5.28 5.75 3.99 3.61 5.46 2.54
2019 TOP 10:
Frozen II	6.782M	1.430M	4.74
The Lion King	5.652M	0.922M	6.13
Geheimnis	5.321M	0.924M	5.76
TROS	5.249M	1.388M	3.78
Endgame	5.132M	1.672M	3.07
Joker	4.293M	0.841M	5.10
Jumanji II	2.567M	0.383M	6.70
Pets 2	2.516M	0.110M	12.71
HTTYD 3	2.269M	0.616M	3.69
Captain Marvel	2.080M	0.640M	3.25
Endgame, TLK, TROS started on Wednesday
2018 TOP 10:
Bohemian Rhapsody	3.966M	0.398M	9.96
Fantastic Beasts 2	3.896M	0.995M	3.92
Junge	3.870M	0.543M	7.13
Infinity War	3.458M	1.075M	3.22
Fifty Shades 3	3.009M	0.725M	4.15
Hotel Transylvania 3	2.558M	0.355M	7.21
Jurassic World 2	2.404M	0.574M	4.19
Grinch	2.287M	0.333M	6.87
Deadpool 2	2.246M	0.661M	3.40
Mamma Mia 2	2.204M	0.343M	6.43
HT 3 started on Monday, the number is just the 4-Day Weekend, Thursday to Sunday
2017 TOP 10:
Fack Ju Göhte 3	6.136M	1.726M	3.56
SW - TLJ	5.905M	1.627M	3.63
Despicable Me 3	4.65M	0.851M	5.46
Fifty Shades 2	3.457M	0.847M	4.08
B&tB	3.430M	0.864M	3.97
F&F 8	3.241M	1.145M	2.83
It	3.17M	0.937M	3.38
PotC 5	2.694M	0.577M	4.67
GotG 2	2.516M	0.75M	3.35
Bescheurte Herz	2.138M	0.159M	13.45
The last movie opened over Christmas Weekend (that means dead Sunday)
2016 TOP 10:
Rogue One	3.994M	1.001M	3.99
Finding Dory	3.922M	0.876M	4.48
Pets	3.848M	0.706M	5.45
Zootopia	3.845M	0.69M	5.57
Willkommen	3.839M	0.469M	8.19
Fantastic Beasts 1	3.539M	0.827M	4.28
Ice Age 5	2.925M	0.443M	6.6
The Revenant	2.827M	0.38M	7.44
Deadpool	2.738M	0.714M	3.83
Sing	2.472M	0.385M	6.42
2015 TOP 10:
SW - TFA	9.06M	2.139M	4.24
Fack Ju Göhte 2	7.734M	2.115M	3.66
Spectre	7.089M	1.681M	4.22
Minions	6.946M	0.935M	7.43
Fifty Shades 1	4.42M	1.353M	3.27
F&F 7	4.186M	1.334M	3.14
Jurassic World	4.148M	0.903M	4.59
Mockingjay 2	4.07M	1.143M	3.56
Inside Out	3.505M	0.642M	5.46
Er ist wieder da	2.485M	0.36M	6.9
2014 TOP 10:
Honig im Kopf	7.275M	0.678M	10.73
Hobbit 3	6.066M	1.278M	4.75
Mockingjay 1:	4.008M	1.184M	3.39
Monsieur Claude	3.934M	0.155M	25.38
HTTYD 2	2.735M	0.484M	5.65
Transformers 4	2.508M	0.697M	3.60
Wolf of Wall Street	2.401M	0.512M	4.69
Vaterfreuden	2.368M	0.483M	4.90
Paddington	2.064M	0.278M	7.42
GotG	1.799M	0.463M	3.89
2013 Top 10:
Fack Ju Göhte	7.412M	0.872M	8.5
Hobbit 2	6.098M	1.259M	4.84
Frozen	4.767M	0.572M	8.33
Django Unchained	4.499M	0.750M	6.00
Catching Fire	3.744M	1.079M	3.47
Despicable Me 2	3,668M	0.521M	7.04
Medicus	3.634M	0.714M	5.09
Hangover 3	3.104M	1.273M	2.44
Fast & Furious 6	2.874M	0.802M	3.58
Kokowääh 2	2.749M	0.515M	5.34
2012 TOP 10:
Intouchables	9.160M	0.335M	27.34
Skyfall	7.826M	1.908M	4.10
Ice Age 4	6.700M	1.106M	6.06
Hobbit 1	6.689M	1.085M	6.16
Madagascar 3	3.973M	0.822M	4.83
Twilight 5	3.922M	1.267M	3.10
Ted	3.372M	0.710M	4.75
Dark Knight Rises	3.253M	0.857M	3.80
American Pie 4	2.521M	0.677M	3.72
Türkisch für Anfä.	2.393M	0.372M	6.43
2011 TOP 10:
Deathly Hallows 2	6.469M	1.608M	4.02
Pirates 3	4.397M	1.331M	3.30
Kokowääh	4.317M	0.838M	5.15
Hangover 2	4.09M	1.033M	3.96
Twilight 4	3.752M	1.066M	3.52
Puss in Boots	3.195M	0.558M	5.73
The Smurfs	2.722M	0.545M	4.99
Transformers 3	2.574M	0.836M	3.08
Fast & Furious 5	2.461M	0.824M	2.99
The King’s Speech	2.427M	0.214M	11.34
2010 TOP 10:
Deathly Hallow 1	5.836M	1.769M	3.30
Rapunzel	3.932M	0.572M	6.87
Twilight 3	3.862M	1.003M	3.85
Inception	3.426M	0.621M	5.52
Alice in Wonderland	2.968M	0.544M	5.46
Sex and the City 2	2.569M	0.596M	4.31
Despicable Me	2.508M	0.437M	5.74
Forever Shrek	2.437M	0.394M	6.19
Kindsköpfe	2.097M	0.549M	3.82
Sherlock Holmes	1.731M	0.416M	4.16

 

 

Explanations:

As totals for the first run aren’t really available I added the open-air numbers for BR and Junge and the double Feature for IW as I think HP has double features in the total too but I don’t know to which extent.

 

Interesting things:

Out of 120! movies only 4  missed a 3x and that were Fast 5 with a 2.99x (0.824M opening and 2.461M total), Fast 8 with a 2.83x (1.145M opening and 3.241M total), Kangaroo due to corona with a 2.54x and Hangover 2 with a 2.44x (1.273M opening and 3.104M total).

We don't talk about Hangover 2 legs.

 

 

 

How often did a movie in the Yearly Top 10 miss a 4x:

2021: 1(only F&F9)

2020: 4

2019: 5

2018: 3

2017:6

2016: 2 (3.83x and 3.99x)

2015: 4

2014: 3

2013: 3

2012: 3

2011: 5

2010: 3

Meaning the big movies tend to have good legs.

Out of a 120 movies 42 movies did (35% - so 65 % get a 4x).

 

Worst Multis (Bottom 10):

Hangover 3: 2.44x

Kangaroo Chronicles: 2.54x (legs absolutely destroyed by Corona - without it it should have comfortable gotten a 5x or so)

Fast 8: 2.83x

Fast 5: 2.99x

 

Endgame: 3.07x

Transformers 3: 3.08x

Twillight 5: 3.10x

Fast 7: 3.14x

Infinty War: 3.22x (Thinking 3.16x without Double Features)

Fifty Shades 1: 3.27x

 

 

Top Multis (Top 10):

Intouchables: 27.34x (biggest movie in the last decade)

Monsieur Claude: 25.38x

Green Book: 13.96x

Bescheurte Herz: 13.45x

Pets 2: 11.48x

The King’s Speech: 11.34x

Honig Im Kopf: 10.73x

Bohemian Rhapsody: 9.96x

Fack Ju Göhte: 8.5x

Frozen: 8.33x

 

Best year for respective place:

#1: 2012 (9.160M)

#2: 2012 (7.826M)

#3: 2015 (7.089M)

#4: 2015 (6.946M)

#5: 2015 (4.420M)

#6: 2015 (4.186M)

#7: 2015 (4.148M)

#8: 2015 (4.070M)

#9: 2015 (3.505M)

#10: 2013 (2.749M)

 

2015 had a lot of strong movies which is reflected in this list, the top 2 for 2015 are only 100k behind the 2012 ones in #1 and #2. #3 and #4 in 2012 are 390k and 250k behind the 2015 ones.

Based on this one can guess the best years are these year:

#1: 2015 (139.2M)

#2: 2012 (135.1M)

#3: 2013 (129.7M)

#4: 2011 (129.6M)

 

How many movies about the respective milestone:

9M (3x Goldene Leinwand):

2021: 0

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 0

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: 1

2014: 0

2013: 0

2012: 1

2011: 0

2010: 0

 

6M (2x Goldene Leinwand):

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 1 

2018: 0

2017: 1

2016: 0

2015: 4

2014: 2

2013: 2

2012: 4

2011: 1

2010: 0

 

4M:

2021: 2

2020: 0

2019: 6 

2018: 0

2017: 3

2016: 0 

2015: 8

2014: 3

2013: 4

2012: 4

2011: 4

2010: 1

 

2012 had 4 movies above 6.68M but no movie between that and 4M.

 

3M (Goldene Leinwand):

2021:2

2020: 0

2019: 6

2018: 5

2017: 7

2016: 6

2015: 9

2014: 4

2013: 8

2012: 8

2011: 6

2010: 4

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Taruseth