BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Issac Newton]

Germany WKend Numbers (Outside Top 20)

 

⚪ Spider-Man: No Way Home : €1,147 / €45,781,470

⚪ Jujutsu Kaisen 0 : €513 / €2,530,339

 

Austria WKend - June 17-19, 2022

 

#1 Jurassic World: Dominion : €303,854 / €1,601,667

#2 Top Gun: Marverick : €245,686 / €3,702,949

#3 Buzz: LightYear : €36,678 / €72,345 🆕

#4 Dr. Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness : €30,531 / €3,364,548

#5 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent : €21,456 / €47,678 🆕

 

Misc.

◉ Belle : €54,749 / €419,223 (Germany)

◉ Belle : €8,089 / €51,313 (Austria)

Edited June 21, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Taruseth]

T- 1 - count done 21st June (Tuesday) 23:55

CS Lübeck:

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		1	39	380	10,26

 

DSMOM => 19k Previews

TG:M Previews => 20k Previews

 

 

WTFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		65	116	20380	0,67

 

/

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		61	55	18241	0,30

 

Comps:

Lightyear => 74k

Menschheit => 112k

 

W at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		4	61	2139	2,85

 

JWD => 10k

 

 

So:

I'd expect some soft previews around 15-20k

And then this weekend should have the advantage of better weather (for the cinemas - Thursday and Friday won't be nice to the numbers though) - so I'd expect 125-150k - but my actual prediction will come tomorrow evening.

[Taruseth]

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		61	101	18241	0,30

Tickets sold increased by 84 %

 

Comps:

Rocketman => 69k

Lightyear => 53k

Menschheit => 120k

 

Does't look too good - Menschheit ist an outliner btw. it had the second highest presales multi that I counted only barely behind Five Feet Apart (that comp would mean 126k) - the lowest I counted TROS would mean 13k.

It's predicted to stay rather warm through out the weekend - the west slightly cooler on Friday but on Saturday and Sunday temperatures of up to 30 °C again (nowhere near as hot as last weekend, but still too hot for great numbers).

 

Which is why I - for now - will go with the Rocketman comp and say 70k OWend,

[Borobudur]

11 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		61	101	18241	0,30

Tickets sold increased by 84 %

 

Comps:

Rocketman => 69k

Lightyear => 53k

Menschheit => 120k

 

Does't look too good - Menschheit ist an outliner btw. it had the second highest presales multi that I counted only barely behind Five Feet Apart (that comp would mean 126k) - the lowest I counted TROS would mean 13k.

It's predicted to stay rather warm through out the weekend - the west slightly cooler on Friday but on Saturday and Sunday temperatures of up to 30 °C again (nowhere near as hot as last weekend, but still too hot for great numbers).

 

Which is why I - for now - will go with the Rocketman comp and say 70k OWend,

How is weather looking like Germany this weekend? 

[Brainbug]

30 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

How is weather looking like Germany this weekend? 

 

Not good, meaning good: In large parts of the country, theres rain forecasted for Friday and Sunday, so holds should be very good.

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

How is weather looking like Germany this weekend? 

Overall quite good - but with rain in the evenings - at least tomorrow and on Sunday. So holds will probably be quite alright (low drops) but I don't think we will see any increases - those could happen though of Saturday is mostly cloudy and Sunday is rainy.

In the later case Elvis could double my prediction and TG and the animation movies would probably all increase.

In most of Germany (outside of Northern Lower Saxony, Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Schleswig-Holstein) it's colder than last weekend so that already might help a bit.

 

 

Furthermore the predictions for the weekend seem to slowly be getting less hot and sonny (not everywhere), that should help Elvis presale multi and we might see it getting the highest presales multi out of all movies I tracked.

 

 

Also internal multipliers this weekend will probably be really good - as today is a rather sunny and hot day.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

first weekend estimates from insidekino.de show indeed good holds:

#1: JW3 - 200k admissions (-31%)

#2: TGM - 160k (-11%)

#3: Elvis - 95k incl. previews

 

[Aristis]

On 6/17/2022 at 8:26 AM, Aristis said:

Thursday:

#1 JW3 71k (-12%) 

#2 TG2 48k (+) 

#3 Geschichte der Menschheit 15,7k

#4 Lightyear 14,3k

Thursday:

#1 Jurassic World 19,5k (-73%) 

#2 TG:M 18,5k (-61%) 

#3 Elvis 10k

#4 Black Phone 6k

#5 Geschichte der Menschheit 5,2k (-64%) 

[Borobudur]

8 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Thursday:

#1 Jurassic World 19,5k (-73%) 

#2 TG:M 18,5k (-61%) 

#3 Elvis 10k

#4 Black Phone 6k

#5 Geschichte der Menschheit 5,2k (-64%) 

Why all the harsh drop? 

[nerves]

I can't believe JWD is still on the top.

[altglascontainer]

51 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Thursday:

#1 Jurassic World 19,5k (-73%) 

#2 TG:M 18,5k (-61%) 

#3 Elvis 10k

#4 Black Phone 6k

#5 Geschichte der Menschheit 5,2k (-64%) 

 

Wow, this is a very good number for black Phone. Black Phone Had only 11 Preview Shows in my Tracking area, compared to 34 for Elvis. Furthermore the Previews for black Phone were scattered from monday (2 showings), tuesday (5) to wednesday (4). Is this Number for the whole Previews or Just wednesday? If its Just for wednesday that Number would be even more astonishing. 

[Taruseth]

6 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Why all the harsh drop? 

Last Thursday was a public holiday in 2/3rds of the country and this Thursday was hotter than last Thursday.

Today is already colder in most parts (apart from the North East where today is the hottest day) and Saturday will be way colder (last Saturday was 33-38 °C in large parts of Germany (apart from the coastal regions of Germany).

 

So IM were awful last week, they will be the opposite this week.

IM last week -> this week

JWD: 4.07 -> 10

TG2: 3.76 -> 8.7

Menschheit: 3.63x -> 9.6x

Lightyear: 3.85x -> probably 10x or so (so Thursday was probably 4k)

 

9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

first weekend estimates from insidekino.de show indeed good holds:

#1: JW3 - 200k admissions (-31%)

#2: TGM - 160k (-11%)

#3: Elvis - 95k incl. previews

 

You didn't even post all:

#4 Menschheit 50k (-12%)

#5 Lightyear 40k (-27 %)

 

 

6 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

 

Wow, this is a very good number for black Phone. Black Phone Had only 11 Preview Shows in my Tracking area, compared to 34 for Elvis. Furthermore the Previews for black Phone were scattered from monday (2 showings), tuesday (5) to wednesday (4). Is this Number for the whole Previews or Just wednesday? If its Just for wednesday that Number would be even more astonishing. 

Those are the Thursday numbers (as the title says), not the preview numbers.

 

Monday and Tuesday for Black Phone were worth around 1k - I don't think Wednesday was worth much more than 1k.

 

 

[Taruseth]

On 6/6/2022 at 12:44 PM, Taruseth said:

I expected a good day but not that good.

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

FB3 is around 3k behind that idea.

 

TG2 on the other hand was  82k in front last weekend, after this weekend it will probably be around 100k - might (if the weather play along) make a play at 2.75m.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Last Thursday was a public holiday in 2/3rds of the country and this Thursday was hotter than last Thursday.

Today is already colder in most parts (apart from the North East where today is the hottest day) and Saturday will be way colder (last Saturday was 33-38 °C in large parts of Germany (apart from the coastal regions of Germany).

 

So IM were awful last week, they will be the opposite this week.

IM last week -> this week

JWD: 4.07 -> 10

TG2: 3.76 -> 8.7

Menschheit: 3.63x -> 9.6x

Lightyear: 3.85x -> probably 10x or so (so Thursday was probably 4k)

 

So is 3m admission in play for TGM? I learn that large part of Netherlands, France and Germany will have significant rainfall this weekend while the heat wave now concentrating on Italy and Spain. 

[John Marston]

So holdovers should be doing well this weekend?

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So holdovers should be doing well this weekend?

 

They should, yes. We will probably see drops in the 30-20% range.

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

So is 3m admission in play for TGM? I learn that large part of Netherlands, France and Germany will have significant rainfall this weekend while the heat wave now concentrating on Italy and Spain. 

For now I'd go with 2.75m - but 3m is definitely in the realm of possiblitly now and especially with a rainy July it could do it. WE also don't yet know if it will be able to coexist with Thor - I'd say it can, Germany is a good market for multiple movies (not to the extent that Japan is) but movies can often exist quite well together.

Yesterday was hot almost everywhere (that's why the drops are so high on Thursday) and today was way to hot in North-Eastern Germany and Sunday is looking to be hot again too here - but the rest seems to get away with better temperatures especially compared to last weekend.

 

 

TGM is doing well - but kinda underwhelming in Germany.

Including Thursday in the US it's at roughly a 3.83 and in Germany at a 3.77 (only including Wednesday) - I know, that the US has a 3-day OWend (well - by now 3.5 day) and Germany has a 4-day (as previews are separated from the OWend). Normally Germany (at least I think that that's the case) has better legs than lot of other markets.

 

So it's doing well but it could do a lot better.

 

Also with FB3 probably missing 3m - means bloody Minions will be the first movie (if it gets there) and then we have Avatar 2 left and that's it - that is awful for the reopening year of cinema - unless Avatar 2 blows everything away - which I am really hoping for - I wanna see a run like Avatar, Intouchables or something like that (or at least TFA with a slightly lower OWend but better legs).

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Taruseth

[el sid]

The second trend - unfortunately it looks a bit worse now:

 

#1 JW3 175k

#2 TGM 150k

#3 Elvis 82.5k

#4 The Black Phone 52.5k

#5 Lightyear 45k

#6 Die Geschichte der Menschheit leicht gekürzt 42.5k

Edited June 25, 2022 by el sid

[Taruseth]

19 hours ago, el sid said:

The second trend - unfortunately it looks a bit worse now:

 

#1 JW3 175k

#2 TGM 150k

#3 Elvis 82.5k

#4 The Black Phone 52.5k

#5 Lightyear 45k

#6 Die Geschichte der Menschheit leicht gekürzt 42.5k

Better for JW3, barely for Elvis and Menschheit and worse for Black Phone and Lightyear.

JW3: 190k

TG2: 150k

Elvis: 85k

Black Phone: 47.5k

Geschichte der Menschheit: 45k

Lightyear: 42.5k

[Taruseth]

No Idea if any of them manages to increase - but I wouldn't count it out. Wouldn't be too optimistic though.

 

But:

Minions opening on Thursday doesn't even have any shows available yet at the Cinestar chain - I think it won't be able to open above the first and it definitely won't have the legs of the first - also doubting that it can get to 5m admissions (which would be 2m below the first).

 

I won't bet against it, cause the first one had almost 7m admissions.

 

 

But we really need Avatar 2 to pull through in December, so we won't have Minions as top movies - 2015 The Force Awakens, Fack Ju Göhte 2 (mmmh - sad) and Spectre prevented that movie from appearing in the top 3.

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Taruseth