Aristis Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 This 90M yearly admissions number doesn't really seem right - the weekly Top10 has a drop of 17% which would (with 122,3M in 2017) lead to 101,5M. The real number should be around that. Still awful... But if there's anything positive with that number, than that this will lead to around €880M for the year which would be the worst since 2008 - they couldn't even say something like "2nd biggest year ever", which they did last year referring to €€€... There has to be some kind of wake up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 Saturday estimates very stable. Here in Austria, weather might seriously dampen the weekend since there's so much snow, many multiplexes catering to the suburbs will be hard to reach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 20 hours ago, Aristis said: This 90M yearly admissions number doesn't really seem right - the weekly Top10 has a drop of 17% which would (with 122,3M in 2017) lead to 101,5M. The real number should be around that. Still awful... But if there's anything positive with that number, than that this will lead to around €880M for the year which would be the worst since 2008 - they couldn't even say something like "2nd biggest year ever", which they did last year referring to €€€... There has to be some kind of wake up! Yeah, I agree with you, pointed out the same thing in the international topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3rd trend: #1: Der Junge...: 420k #2: Aquaman: 275k #3: Mary Poppins: 200k #4: 100 DInge: 155k #5: The Grinch: 150k #6: Bumblebee: 125k #7/8: Fantastic Beasts 2/Feuerwehrmann Sam 3: 115k #9: Bohemian Rhapsody: 100k #10: Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss: 85k 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, miketheavenger said: #7/8: Fantastic Beasts 2/Feuerwehrmann Sam 3: 115k That's pretty great for FB2 again, FB1 had 88k the same WE and 3,34M total. So FB2 is nearly 400k in front. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 actuals tomorrow but it seems domestic biodrama DJmadfL had an excellent hold; 440k is a 19% drop, excellent! Aquaman also better than in estimates, 290k means a 31% drop. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: actuals tomorrow but it seems domestic biodrama DJmadfL had an excellent hold; 440k is a 19% drop, excellent! Aquaman also better than in estimates, 290k means a 31% drop. And BR really above 100k, apparently. YEAAAAAAH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 BR has a realistic shot at 3mil total, with awards season as fuel it just might crawl over that mark! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Der Junge muss an die frische Luft 446.312 773 577 1.340.463 11.606.140 -18 2 2 Aquaman 291.522 503 580 1.393.951 15.591.675 -33 3 3 Mary Poppins Returns 191.771 632 303 880.380 7.346.838 -29 3 4 100 Dinge 154.981 537 289 1.170.833 9.964.763 -28 5 5 The Grinch 145.044 694 209 2.170.003 16.984.172 -42 6 6 Bumblebee 126.518 506 250 580.194 5.772.816 -29 3 7 Fantastic Beasts 2 116.961 475 246 3.728.160 37.546.195 -35 8 8 Bohemian Rhapsody 104.643 583 179 2.546.802 23.553.189 -16 10 9 Feuerwehrmann Sam - Filmheld 89.447 531 168 116.653 734.765 - 1 10 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - Dschungel 82.666 517 160 228.284 1.530.897 -15 2 11 Spider-Verse 55.016 462 119 304.985 2.532.869 -13 4 12 Tabaluga 52.039 619 84 430.261 2.895.793 -22 5 13 Mortal Engines 47.180 404 117 394.441 4.309.009 -42 4 14 The Wife 28.888 101 286 30.340 252.682 - 1 15 Colette 27.641 96 288 32.091 254.645 - 1 16 Astrid 25.653 195 132 199.551 1.631.684 -27 5 17 Unknown User 2 25.485 244 104 239.506 2.074.088 -20 5 18 Shoplifters 20.773 92 226 56.416 470.651 -9 2 19 25 km/h 20.332 212 96 880.296 7.216.616 -15 10 20 The Nutcracker 19.458 328 59 1.074.729 8.952.098 -38 10 Very nice weekend with 8 releases >100k admissions, all of them holdovers! (In Austria, business was not bad but "Der Junge …" doesn't work here at all so overall a lot weaker). Next weekend: Der Junge muss an die frische Luft should stay safely on top but there are two releases aiming for >100k admissions - domestic thriller comedy Kalte Füße (I liked the trailer, would be nice if this could break out) and the lamtest Robin Hood - let's see if one of them can reach #2. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 in other news, Austria's December numbers are final and it was one of the worst in recent history (2007 was lower) which makes the 4th quarter the worst one in recent history, as was the whole year 2018. We were down: -13% from 2017 -16% from 2016 and -22% from 2015 ... while we could say that it can only go upwards from here (and there is some more blockbuster potential) the industry stays strangely quiet - no alarm bells ringing, no big push for wider audiences - it seems as if everybody has decided simply to let the cinemas die slowly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Some news to the yearly numbers from InsideKino: The Top10 WE, which normally accounts for around 76% to 79% of the whole yearly admissions, had a total of 77,3M admissions. That would lead to 98M to 102M admissions in 2018. However, since the OpenAir Season was great last year MarkG believes the yearly numbers could be a bit more than that. We will get actuals in February. With those numbers 2018 admissions would be down around 17% from 2017, which itself already was pretty bad... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 As my last post was about 2018 this one is dedicated to 2019, so it's time to wipe away the tears and to be optimistic since it can't get much worse 🤐 I tried to guess which movies could be the most successfull of the year and made a list of all (potential) 2M+ movies. And to me it seems 2019 will be better again! SW9 should be the biggest among 2018 movies. The 8th fell 35% from SW7. This one, being made by JJ againd and being the last of the new Trilogy, should increase again. After SW7 9,06M and SW8 5,91M this one should do around 6,5M or more. TLK is one of some movies I find extremely hard to predict. WW it seems predictions are extremely high, for Germany I don't see it doing that great. Among other Disney LA-remakes BATB (3,43M) - the biggest of the remakes - and TJB (1,87M) - one that contains talking animals - may be the best comparison. TJB (the Original, including re-releases, has 27,4M admissions and is the biggest movie ever) didn't connect to German moviegoers, maybe because the original is rather light toned with widely known and beloved songs. TLK, probably not being that different from the original, may therefore fare better. With 11,9M admissions the 1994 TLK is the 8th biggest movie ever. Maybe it can have 4M, though I could see everything from 2M to 6M. But maybe hype will reach even Germany. Frozen2 is the next one I find hard. The first legged itself to 4,77M. Elsa and Anna are still present in advertisement and seem to be beloved by children. I see it doing around 4M too, though if children (teens and parents) go crazy for this it could even do something like Minions (6,95M). It could be not stupid enough for Germany though . With Pets2 there'll be another big animation movie. The first with 3,85M was one of three animations being very close to each other in 2016. Since many Illumination sequels increased and Pets was well recieved I think, it may be able to reach 4M too. However, since Germany almost always disappoints, I'll be a bit more conservative and say around 3,5M. Av4. The Avengers movies increased with every following part (2,25M - 2,42M - 3,4M). However, the 3rd one even surpassed SM2&3 and may have found a ceiling. Av4 will probably land close to that, and even though it could reach 3,5M I'll say it may do just 3,25M. F&F9. After the 7th hitting the Top of its Franchise with 4,19M, F&F8 decreased to 3,24M. The 9th part of the series should decrease again and should get somewhere around 2,5M. It2. It was huge in 2017 and surpassed all expectations with 3,17M. The 2nd should decrease but will still be big for a horror movie. It may land around 2,25M. HttyD3 will be another animation that should surpass 2M. The 2nd had a big increase from the 1st (2,73M vs 1,63M). The 3rd is now opening against The Lego Movie 2 (I really don't know why...). Therefore it may not reach the 2nd part but it should be able to reach 2,25M too. Aladdin is a wild card. It could do something like Cinderella (1,07M) or get closer to BATB (3,43M). I think it'll fall just around 2M. That may be conservative since the original Alladin was the most successfull Disney animation beside TLK and therefore bigger than BATB92 (6,35M vs 6,18M). The last, and maybe the biggest wild card, I think will reach 2M is the sequel of the french 2014 movie Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu? (Known as Monsieur Claude und seine Töchter in Germany or maybe Serial (Bad) Weddings in english speaking countries). The first one was a surprise hit in Germany with 3,93M admissions. You could argue that nobody needed a sequel to that movie and this one could be something niche. But its issues are still important (maybe even more than 2014) and it'll probably be a better racism-centered comedy again than Willkommen bei den Hartmann's was. I see it doing anything 2M+. I could be totally wrong and it'll bomb or it'll do even better than this. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) Continuation: There are some more movies that may have the potential to reach the mark of 2M (Not all those that will reach 1M though). I'll just list them and add my prediction and comparable movies admissions: Jumanji2 1,75M (Jumanji1, 2M) Ralph2 1,75M (Ralph 1,04M) If most other countries would not have been that disappointing I'd say it'll do 2M+... Toy Story 4 1,75M (TS1 2,53M, TS2 2,85M, TS3 1,6M) This is hard to predict... Dumbo 1,5M The Lego Movie 2 1,5M (LM1 1,31M, Lego Batman 0,9M) I would wish for this to reach 2M - I really loved the 1st - but as I wrote, it opens alongside Ralph2 and Lego Batman didn't do great either... Isn't it romatic? Edit: I thought it could do great but as I learned it isn't released in german cinemas... Glass 1,5M? (Split 1,22M) Alita 1,5M? Most of those probably won't though... So that's my forecast Edited January 8, 2019 by Aristis 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Aristis said: Isn't it romatic? 1,5M? (I don't know why, but such comedies tend to do well ) Amazing that you mention it, because I thought this movie might do quite well in Gemrany. So guess what? Warner sold it to Netflix and the movie is not getting a theatrical release. This is getting beyond ridiculous. They do everything to keep the female crowd from coming to theaters. Edited January 8, 2019 by Poseidon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 hours ago, Giesi said: Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience? Don't really know, I just don't really the think the films are that great, yeah, they are good, really good, but that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Saw the trailer for "Kalte Füße" today, really not bad, quite funny. Reviews are also ok so far, not overwhelming, but not hurting if the film connects with the audience. And we know that the aspiration level of the audience here is not the highest . My guess is that it will have more admissions than Robin Hood, especially in total admissions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 first weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1: DJmadfL - 350k (-22%) #2: Aquaman - 160k (-45%) #3: RobinHood - 130k (ok) #4: BR - 100k (-4%, wow) 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 And some very unspectacular Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film): The new releases: Robin Hood (released in 432 theaters): 12k/116k US$ Kalte Füße / Colt Feet (a German comedy, 373): 7k → 75k OW predicted in the first trend, I hoped for more Polaroid (210): 5.5k → 52.5k OW predicted Heavy Trip (under 100): 2.8k Ben Is Back (75): 1.3k The holdovers (no school holidays anymore so the drops look worse than they will be over the whole weekend): Der Junge muss an die frische Luft: 34k (actuals last Thursday 85k) Aquaman: 16k (60k) BR: 10k (?k) 100 Dinge: 7k (32k) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:43 PM, Giesi said: Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience? Because the movies are great. The 3rd in particular, and that is - in fact - the lowest grosser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...