Karthik Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Joker 841.002 690 1.219 940.402 8.945.477 - 1 2 Gemini Man 100.159 569 176 385.595 4.042.105 -53 2 3 Dem Horizont so nah 85.094 378 225 109.345 930.369 - 1 4 Shaun the Sheep 2 70.984 676 105 481.470 3.327.801 -61 3 5 Angry Birds 2 58.286 643 91 508.555 3.611.772 -59 4 6 Abominable 56.970 549 104 324.205 2.392.403 -53 3 7 Dora and the Lost City 53.302 336 159 53.302 377.149 - 1 8 Downton Abbey 45.345 511 89 527.934 4.798.867 -56 4 9 It 2 45.115 433 104 1.807.458 18.261.871 -61 6 10 Systemsprenger 39.285 380 103 293.679 2.353.649 -33 4 11 Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0 36.735 247 149 144.593 1.174.325 -52 2 12 Deutschstunde 35.998 136 265 119.746 1.043.706 -41 2 13 The Lion King 28.616 443 65 5.429.458 50.019.753 -61 13 14 Rambo - Last Blood 24.647 425 58 383.739 3.419.288 -62 4 15 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 19.026 297 64 1.807.702 17.835.604 -63 9 16 47 Meters Down - Uncaged 17.082 162 105 28.522 209.999 - 1 17 The White Crow 16.442 142 116 113.381 967.462 -52 3 18 Ad Astra 15.464 308 50 306.733 2.804.254 -73 4 19 7. Kogustaki Mucize 15.402 31 497 15.402 140.332 - 1 20 Gut gegen Nordwind 15.085 374 40 374.698 3.188.648 -66 5 The excellent opening for Joker and steep drops for everything else made for an ok overall weekend. WOM seems good for Joker, it has a decent chance at 3mil total - an unexpected but welcome hit! (In Austria, 300k total seem very probable, too, after a nearly 100k OW) Next weekend: Maleficent 2 is the widest opener but won't be able to reach #1 against this week's villain. A 250k OW would be decent I'd say. Also opening is domestic musical comedy "Ich war noch niemals in New York"; hard to predict but should top 100k OW. And a very interesting release: Parasite which is even harder to predict; OW not that big I'd say but might build WOM for the coming weeks. 8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Joker 841.002 690 1.219 940.402 8.945.477 - 1 2 Gemini Man 100.159 569 176 385.595 4.042.105 -53 2 3 Dem Horizont so nah 85.094 378 225 109.345 930.369 - 1 4 Shaun the Sheep 2 70.984 676 105 481.470 3.327.801 -61 3 5 Angry Birds 2 58.286 643 91 508.555 3.611.772 -59 4 6 Abominable 56.970 549 104 324.205 2.392.403 -53 3 7 Dora and the Lost City 53.302 336 159 53.302 377.149 - 1 8 Downton Abbey 45.345 511 89 527.934 4.798.867 -56 4 9 It 2 45.115 433 104 1.807.458 18.261.871 -61 6 10 Systemsprenger 39.285 380 103 293.679 2.353.649 -33 4 11 Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0 36.735 247 149 144.593 1.174.325 -52 2 12 Deutschstunde 35.998 136 265 119.746 1.043.706 -41 2 13 The Lion King 28.616 443 65 5.429.458 50.019.753 -61 13 14 Rambo - Last Blood 24.647 425 58 383.739 3.419.288 -62 4 15 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 19.026 297 64 1.807.702 17.835.604 -63 9 16 47 Meters Down - Uncaged 17.082 162 105 28.522 209.999 - 1 17 The White Crow 16.442 142 116 113.381 967.462 -52 3 18 Ad Astra 15.464 308 50 306.733 2.804.254 -73 4 19 7. Kogustaki Mucize 15.402 31 497 15.402 140.332 - 1 20 Gut gegen Nordwind 15.085 374 40 374.698 3.188.648 -66 5 The excellent opening for Joker and steep drops for everything else made for an ok overall weekend. WOM seems good for Joker, it has a decent chance at 3mil total - an unexpected but welcome hit! (In Austria, 300k total seem very probable, too, after a nearly 100k OW) Next weekend: Maleficent 2 is the widest opener but won't be able to reach #1 against this week's villain. A 250k OW would be decent I'd say. Also opening is domestic musical comedy "Ich war noch niemals in New York"; hard to predict but should top 100k OW. And a very interesting release: Parasite which is even harder to predict; OW not that big I'd say but might build WOM for the coming weeks. Need indian movie collection in Germany from January 2019 pls. Otherwise where I can get the box office details . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 On 10/14/2019 at 6:29 PM, Taruseth said: If it would act like it does in most other markets Joker has a chance to be the only movie this year between 2.5M and (probably) 4M - I expect both Frozen II and TROS to be above 4M, actually I think TROS should be above 5M, I would want to say the same for Frozen II considering that Frozen had 4.8M adm, but that won't get past 5M. That sounds extremely pessimistic towards SW9. If it wouldn't get to 5M+ it'd be disastrous... I'd say either SW9 or Frozen2 will win the year. SW3 fell to 5,62M after 5,7M for SW2. With the same drop from SW8 (5,9M), SW9 would still get to 5,8M - around that should be the low end (I still believe it can increase to 6M+ again). Frozen2 seems like the biggest wildcard of the year it could Minions numbers (6,95M) or just 4M... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 (edited) Updadet Top15 FSK16 OW: Admissions Theatres Average 1 1.788.781 1.124 1.591 Matrix Reloaded (2003) 2 1.353.030 739 1.831 Fifty Shades of Grey (2015) 3 1.318.961 893 1.477 Mission: Impossible 2 (2000) 4 1.165.253 835 1.396 JB: Tomorow never dies (1997) 5 1.070.139 713 1.501 I Am Legend (2008) 6 1.031.758 474 2.177 Terminator 2 (1991) 7 976.476 873 1.119 Terminator 3 (2003) 8 947.575 734 1.291 Matrix (1999) 9 937.213 660 1.420 IT (2017) 10 868.763 754 1.152 The Dark Knight (2008) 11 848.703 648 1.310 Scary Movie (2000) 12 847.752 1.069 794 Matrix Revolutions (2003) 13 847.356 712 1.190 Fifty Shades of Grey 2 (2017) 14 841.002 690 1.219 Joker (2019) 15 780.837 663 1.178 Scary Movie 2 (2001) http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord16.htm And TLK crossed €50M as the 32nd movie: € Admissions ATP 21 58.506.360 7.274.964 8,04 Honig im Kopf (2014) 22 57.929.442 6.945.769 8,34 Minions (2015) 23 57.479.601 5.123.866 11,22 Avengers – Endgame (2019) 24 56.530.290 8.709.881 6,49 Ice Age 3 (2009) 25 55.683.049 11.899.893 4,68 The Lion King (1994) 26 55.468.003 9.272.424 5,98 Independence Day (1996) 27 54.997.906 7.411.899 7,42 Fack Ju Göhte (2013) 28 53.789.118 8.035.758 6,69 Harry Potter 4 (2005) 29 53.347.812 6.136.279 8,69 Fack Ju Göhte 3 (2017) 30 52.041.305 6.700.208 7,77 Ice Age 4 (2012) 31 51.276.038 9.165.932 5,59 (T)Raumschiff Surprise (2004) 32 50.019.753 5.429.458 9,21 The Lion King (2019) 33 48.754.108 8.747.561 5,57 Ice Age 2 (2006) 34 48.415.306 9.395.450 5,15 Jurassic Park (1993) http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm It'll probably end around €50,6M+, above the original run of TLK (€50,38M). Edited October 16, 2019 by Aristis 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 MarkG predict 631k weekend for Joker (-25%) Also 1865k adm for Sunday. Is that means estimated Joker gets 300k adm from Monday-Wednesday ? https://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgOKT172019.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 hours ago, Aristis said: That sounds extremely pessimistic towards SW9. If it wouldn't get to 5M+ it'd be disastrous... I'd say either SW9 or Frozen2 will win the year. SW3 fell to 5,62M after 5,7M for SW2. With the same drop from SW8 (5,9M), SW9 would still get to 5,8M - around that should be the low end (I still believe it can increase to 6M+ again). Frozen2 seems like the biggest wildcard of the year it could Minions numbers (6,95M) or just 4M... Wasn't meant that way, just wanted to point out that there is nothing between 4M and 2.5M right now and there is always the chance for it to fall a little harsher than SW3 cause TLJ dropped harder than SW2 did (TPM had 8M, TFA 9M but the follow up almost the same number). Not that I think it will end below that, hoping for 6M. Hoping for 5+M for Frozen II because cinemas etc. need strong movies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, RJ 95 said: MarkG predict 631k weekend for Joker (-25%) Also 1865k adm for Sunday. Is that means estimated Joker gets 300k adm from Monday-Wednesday ? https://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgOKT172019.htm Yeah, you are correct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Rather undewhelming openings ... Joker will be the only big movie once again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Joker-101,173 Maleficent 2-24,688 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, efialtes76 said: Joker-101,173 Maleficent 2-24,688 Well, those are just estimates that can be off quite a bit (last week the estimate was 128k and the actual 140k). But the numbers indicate around 20% drop for Thursday which should lead to ~110k. We will see tomorow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1 Joker 700k (-17% wtf ...) #2 Malef2 300k (ok) #3 IwnniNY >100k 7 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: First weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1 Joker 700k (-17% wtf ...) #2 Malef2 300k (ok) #3 IwnniNY >100k Same range percentage of drop with Europe last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 (edited) Thursday: #1 Joker 115k (-18%) €1,05M/$1,17M #2 Maleficent 50k, €500k/$550k #3 Ich war noch niemals... 15k #4 Gemini Man 12k (-25%) #5 Horizont 11k (-29%) #10? Parasite 7k Edited October 18, 2019 by Aristis 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 13 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: First weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1 Joker 700k (-17% wtf ...) #2 Malef2 300k (ok) #3 IwnniNY >100k where do you see joker finish at this point? 4m possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Friday: Joker-209k Maleficent 2-115k 300k seems to low for M2. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 4mil seem feasible, yes - with drops like this week even easily! Next week Terminator will drain some tickets but this franchise seemed pretty dead so probably no serious threat for #1, 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Second trend is up: #1 Joker 700k #2 Maleficent 2 300k #3 IwnniNY 100k #4 Shaun the Sheep 75k #5 Gemini Man 75k #6 Dem Horizont so nah 65k #7 Everest 65k #8 Angry Birds 2 62.5k #9 Dora 55k #10 Parasite 55k 5 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: 4mil seem feasible, yes - with drops like this week even easily! Next week Terminator will drain some tickets but this franchise seemed pretty dead so probably no serious threat for #1, Agree with you, especially considering it has a higher 2nd weekend than TLK (of a slightly lower opening weekend - have my doubts about it being above TLK next weekend - a 560k third weekend isn't that easy to get). Still lower than Avengers but that movie got most of it's admissions in it's first 12 days (72.4%) compared to TLK which got 38.5% (2116k after 12 days and a 5500k total - should get slightly higher was at 5430k after the past weekend, 10k weekdays and 25k this weekend would be 5465k and adding the rest should be kinda easy so it could end with close to 5500k) in it's first 12 days. If Joker get's roughly 2M in it's first 12 days (for Joker that kinda includes Monday due to a Thursday and not Wednesday start) it finishing with 4M would mean 50% in that time frame so still quite a stretch till TLK (=> would need 5.2M). Edited October 19, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Just noticed that Star Wars will start on Wednesday the 18th and not on Thursday like it is normally the case. Have they mentioned this earlier or is this a recent change? Anyway, tickets will go on sale this Tuesday, so they are pretty much following the American schedule in that regard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 hours ago, George Parr said: Just noticed that Star Wars will start on Wednesday the 18th and not on Thursday like it is normally the case. Have they mentioned this earlier or is this a recent change? Anyway, tickets will go on sale this Tuesday, so they are pretty much following the American schedule in that regard. This is new, but they have done the same with Endgame and TLK already and I seriously don't get why they do that. A four day opening weekend is already kinda long, no need to make it a 5-day especially considering that deflates the four day weekend and those people that even bother to read numbers tend to know that a movie starts on Thursday and not on Wednesday. Also I was interested in how well The Lion King is doing in Hamburg and I looked at the seat chart and thought fuck, only like 100-300 out of 2046 seats sold for tomorrow 2pm/6:30pm and then it took me a few seconds to realise, that it's actually the other way around, only 100-300 seats are still available, kinda impressive for a musical running for more than 7000 showings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 I guess in this particular case they are trying to prolong the big holiday-period a bit, to maximize the earning potential. The first few days will be big anyway, and afterwards you are getting the holidays. This should in theory give you a slightly better schedule than if you start on Thursday. Not to mention that it makes a comparison to past starts more difficult. After all, you had an additional day, so it is only natural that the weekend will be lower, but you can't say how the weekend would have fared if the start had happened normally. That way you could kind of hide a weaker start if one should happen. In other news, the third trend is up, mostly minor changes though: #1 Joker 700k #2 Maleficent 2 300k #3 IwnniNY 115k #4 Shaun the Sheep 77.k #5 Gemini Man 77.5k #6 Dem Horizont so nah 65k #7 Everest 62.5k #8 Parasite 62.5k #9 Angry Birds 2 60k #10 Dora 55k 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...