George Parr Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I don't know if 700k would be all that realistic. The Hobbit 2 dropped from 1.075k to 620k. I think if the current numbers hold, the two might be really close to each other after the third weekend (in terms of total, not weekend number). But TLJ should have a much better set of weekdays following that, and also a better 4th weekend, as that was the tail-end of the holidays in at least part of the nation for TLJ while being a regular one for TROS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, George Parr said: I don't know if 700k would be all that realistic. The Hobbit 2 dropped from 1.075k to 620k. I think if the current numbers hold, the two might be really close to each other after the third weekend (in terms of total, not weekend number). But TLJ should have a much better set of weekdays following that, and also a better 4th weekend, as that was the tail-end of the holidays in at least part of the nation for TLJ while being a regular one for TROS. Never said it was, just that with a weekend above that I‘d say a total around TLJ is possible. I am obviously hoping for it to end as #2 this year (don’t think anything can top Frozen 2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Insidekino predict 3,5 millions admissions by Sunday with that result, can TROS surpass SW8 in Germany, someone can make comparaisons ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plunsch Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The second Trend is even better for SW and F2. SW now at 1.15 Mio and F2 at 500k. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plunsch Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I think it will not top SW8. Yes, the second weekend looks very good for SW9, but SW8 started a week earlier and increased on weekend three. SW will drop harshly on its third weekend. http://insidekino.de/Y/DuellSWD.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Plunsch said: The second Trend is even better for SW and F2. SW now at 1.15 Mio and F2 at 500k. Which would be the fifth best 6th weekend of all time only below Titanic (854k), HP1 (787k), Avatar (593k), TLK (549k). Above Intouchables, Schindlers list and the first frozen. 1 hour ago, Plunsch said: I think it will not top SW8. Yes, the second weekend looks very good for SW9, but SW8 started a week earlier and increased on weekend three. SW will drop harshly on its third weekend. http://insidekino.de/Y/DuellSWD.htm most likely to around 600k (but that would still make a total of at least close to TLJ possible (which compared to most other countries would be a success. but right now I am thing 5.5-5.6M right around TLK in admissions (but due to ATP slightly above Endgame) it will end the year as highest grossing movie. And Frozen II will become the Movie with the highest admission count since bloody TFA in 2015. And will be above 5.5M admission tomorrow and above 6M on 5th January (so final total around 6.6M?) (with a tiny, tiny (0.001%) chance at 7M) so at the end of the year the highest grossing movie of all time will be 5th in Germany, behind Frozen II, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis fo this year and in € 2nd (unless Frozen II surprises and goes even further, lol - 7M admission would translate to roughly €57M right around Endgame). Edited December 28, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, LPLC said: Insidekino predict 3,5 millions admissions by Sunday with that result, can TROS surpass SW8 in Germany, someone can make comparaisons ? I will make one (most likely tomorrow) am on vacation right now and flying back home today. Most likely movies are TFA TLJ RO Hobbit 1-3 Lord of the Rings were out of this world as was Avatar. Edited December 28, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I didn't even notice this before, but the current trend for TROS is just 10k behind TFA for the best second weekend of all Star Wars movies. Not that that really means much, as it comes from the nature of the current release schedule (TLJ also beat TFA's third weekend by 1k or so). Won't help much against the losses over the weekdays of the next two weeks though. The movie should be roughly were Episodes II, III and VIII were after its third weekend. There's an odd amount of consistency in that. II sat at 4.43m after three weekends, III at 4.37m, VIII at 4.39m. In the end, Germany might actually end up the core Star Wars market that holds the best compared to the last one, even if it finishes below all of II, III and VIII. The only market that might do better is Japan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 hours ago, George Parr said: I didn't even notice this before, but the current trend for TROS is just 10k behind TFA for the best second weekend of all Star Wars movies. Not that that really means much, as it comes from the nature of the current release schedule (TLJ also beat TFA's third weekend by 1k or so). Won't help much against the losses over the weekdays of the next two weeks though. The movie should be roughly were Episodes II, III and VIII were after its third weekend. There's an odd amount of consistency in that. II sat at 4.43m after three weekends, III at 4.37m, VIII at 4.39m. In the end, Germany might actually end up the core Star Wars market that holds the best compared to the last one, even if it finishes below all of II, III and VIII. The only market that might do better is Japan. Is there a chance for TROS to reach 6 millions admissions or surpass TLJ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Final weekend estimates: #1: StarWars9 - 1.075k admissions (-23%) #2: Frozen2 - 500k (+27%) #3: Jumanji2 - 390k (+29%) #4: AHdrKs - 215k (good opening) #5: Geheimnis - 155k (+19%) 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 It's really hard to find a proper comp for TROs considering all three hobbit movies opened a week prior, which leads to the insane constellation that they all three had three weekends around 1M admissions, which won't happen for TROS as it's 3rd weekend will surely drop quite a bit from it's 2nd weekend, the other SW movies had really different holiday schedules and outside of Hobbit and Star Wars no big movie with a blockbuster opening was started around christmas this decade and even looking at the prior decade won't help considering that Avatar and the three lord of the rings (which had a first and a second weekend around 2M) are the main blockbusters that started around christmas. TROS Hobbit 2 adm. total adm. total Wend 1 1388k 1710k 1259k 1259k Wdays 1 580k 2290k 412k 1671k Wend 2 1075k 3365k 982k 2653k Wdays 2 500k 3865k 444k 3097k Wend 3 600k 4465k 1072k 4169k Wdays 3 200k 4665k 348k 4517k Wend 4 300k 4965k 619k 5136k Wdays 4 75k 5040k 145k 5282k Wend 5 150k 5190k 244k 5525k Wdays 5 25k 5215k 59k 5584k Wend 6 75k 5290k 138k 5721k Wdays 6 10k 5300k 53k 5753k Wend 7 50k 5350k 78k 5832k Wdays 7 10k 5360k 21k 5853k Wend 8 30k 5390k 52k 5904k Wdays 8 5k 5395k 15k 5919k Wend 9 15k 5410k 29k 5949k Wdays 9 5k 5415k 7k 5955k Wend 10 10k 5425k 19k 5974k Wdays 10 5k 5430k 5k 5980k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) Monday numbers: #1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year #2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year #4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M #5 Kaninchen 180k (4-day), 215k (5-day) #6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year #7 Spies in Disguise 116k (4-day),135k (5-day) #8 Cats 81k (4-day), 105k (5-day) Edited December 30, 2019 by Aristis 5 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Aristis said: Monday numbers: #1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year #2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year #4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M #5 Kaninchen 215k (5-day) #6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year #7 Spies in Disguise 135k (5-day) #8 Cats 105k (5-day) This is the numbers after the weekend 27th-29th Dec, right? Can F2 pass 6M after the 5th Jan weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) In Germany it today got above the admissions count of TLK, so it's #1 for the year in admissions. In the end it will have the highest admissions count since TFA in 2015. For the decade it will probably end at #11 with a small chance at beating #10 Hobbit (6.69M), then it would only need 10k more to beat Ice Age 4 (6.70M). So it will definitely be third best animation this decade: #1 Minions: 6.945M (€57.9M) #2 Ice Age 4: 6.7M (€52M) #3 Frozen 2: 6.5M (>€52M) (at 5.5M right now) #4 Frozen 1: 4.767M (€35.8M) #5 Despicable Me 3: 4.651M (€37.9M) I don't wanna give up the hopes yet for Frozen II to get higher than 6.5M, maybe with a strong week now and a not so big drop it has a chance at a higher total, I am hoping for at least above Ice Age 4. Jumanji could end up above 2.5M and with that as #7 of the year and highest grossing film that didn't got above 4M. In the end I am rather certain that we will have 5 movies above 5M, one above 4M and all others below 3M. Edited December 30, 2019 by Taruseth 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, Taruseth said: In Germany it today got above the admissions count of TLK, so it's #1 for the year in admissions.[...] Mark G. confirmed and posted roughly 5.6M admissions. I am rather certain now that it should get to 6M during the next weekend. Which should move the final target above 6.5M. Furthermore, after questions in their forum he pointed out that it's the first weekend in 6! years with three movies above 400k (1st Weekend of 2014): Der Medicus: 631k (a german movie) Hobbit 2: 619k Frozen: 402k So a funny additional information is that a Frozen movie was part of those three movies both times. Edited December 31, 2019 by Taruseth 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 That weekend was also the last time we had this exact holiday schedule. Kind of fitting actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars 9 1.092.063 787 1.388 3.383.673 39.366.662 -21 2 2 Frozen 2 485.101 674 720 5.504.736 45.474.573 +23 6 3 Jumanji 2 404.150 601 672 1.355.231 12.866.614 +33 3 4 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 183.655 538 341 230.212 1.986.773 - 1 5 Das perfekte Geheimnis 153.440 637 241 4.571.863 40.522.716 +18 9 6 Spies in Disguise 118.491 409 290 146.593 1.128.868 - 1 7 Cats 82.631 502 165 107.943 958.633 - 1 8 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 43.016 565 76 167.804 1.098.819 +10 3 9 Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein 33.886 277 122 44.967 300.680 - 1 10 Last Christmas 30.559 354 86 847.103 6.989.071 -59 7 11 The Peanut Butter Falcon 17.108 82 209 50.459 375.392 +36 2 12 Le Mystère Henri Pick 16.535 95 174 24.916 179.964 - 1 13 Hustlers 16.179 129 125 270.270 2.323.144 -15 5 14 Joker 15.309 199 77 4.044.405 37.449.821 +9 12 15 Black Christmas 10.939 249 44 73.491 635.738 -32 3 16 Mucize 2 9.087 57 159 74.911 664.036 +1 4 17 The Farewell 8.650 80 108 29.017 215.842 +1 2 18 Pavarotti 8.150 102 80 13.310 117.390 - 1 19 Parasite 7.048 82 86 380.593 3.305.087 +19 11 20 7500 6.952 74 94 22.492 141.923 - 1 An extremely satisfying weekend, good drops and at least one good opener with Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl which should have some staying power. (Cats also came in a bit above my low expectations …). Drops (resp. increases) were excellent; Star Wars 9 will not miss 5mil total, that at least is locked. Frozen 2 is now the #1 2019 release and will stay so. Next weekend: Still a holiday weekend but steeper drops will happen; but the openers don't look strong - the latest Charlie's Angels comes with nearly no buzz; Knives Out has got good reviews and some starpower but I doubt the wide appeal, too. Even with heftier drops, this week's Top3 should stay in lead. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 ... and a Happy New Year and many (hopefully better) movies to everyone here! There was no 9/10 (or even 10/10) for me in 2019, and only a few 8/10ers ... not a good vintage. 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: ... and a Happy New Year and many (hopefully better) movies to everyone here! There was no 9/10 (or even 10/10) for me in 2019, and only a few 8/10ers ... not a good vintage. Have you seen the following? The Lighthouse Parasite Shadow (2018 movie, but released in the west in 2019) All 10/10 movies for me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 1.092 -21% 3.384 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,500M F1 vs F2: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 468 -34% 4.307 5th 540 25% 3.242 393 -16% 4.808 6th 402 -26% 3.838 485 23% 5.505 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6,500M And again more detailed as Spoiler: Spoiler Frozen1 Frozen2 WE Weekend Mid- week Week Weekend Mid- week Week 1st 572 654 124 696 1.430 1.635 246 1.676 2nd 577 1% 1.355 121 698 0% 941 -34% 2.822 174 1.115 -33% 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 114 590 -15% 708 -25% 3.704 135 843 -24% 4th 433 -9% 2.499 203 636 8% 468 -34% 4.307 108 576 -32% 5th 540 25% 3.242 194 734 15% 393 -16% 4.808 212 605 5% 6th 402 -26% 3.838 95 497 -32% 485 23% 5.505 7th 158 -61% 4.091 19 177 -64% 8th 107 -32% 4.217 13 120 -32% 9th 81 -24% 4.311 12 93 -23% 10th 89 10% 4.412 0 4.767M 0 0 6,500M 0 The Minions comparison still looks good: WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 393 -16% 4.808 6th 195 -47% 5.521 485 23% 5.505 7th 242 24% 5.893 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6,500M Frozen will lead after next WE again. After that Minions has its advantage of bigger weekdays again and F2 must get some good WE holds... Und ich wünsche auch allen ein frohes neues Jahr, happy new year to everyone 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...