Taruseth Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The weekdays for Frozen II were around 180k, so 5685k total as of New Years Day (source: Mark G on Insidekino.de forums), so a 315k weekend would lead to 6M by Sunday (5th Jan), but I am hoping for a higher weekend. Let's see how close this gets to 7M, yesterday my prediction was 6.65M for the total, still thinking that is where it's most likely heading but maybe it can hold better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) 1st trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 600k (4.36M total) Frozen II: 340k (total 6.025M) Jumanji TNL: 300k (1.81M) Knives Out: 190k Kaninchen: 130k (440k) Geheimnis: 120k (4765k) Spione Undercover: 120k (320k) 3 Engel: 70k Edited January 3, 2020 by Taruseth 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 That's an ok opening for Knives ... estimated drops rather steep: StarWars9: -45% Frozen2: -30% (but still good for >6.5 mil total) Jumanji2: -26% A bit surprised by Spies in Disguise, that would be an increase from OW ... either very strange numbers or excellent WOM 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plunsch Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Well, I think 6 Mio visitors is probably unreachable for Episode IX. It should land above 5,6 Mio and therefore above Lion King as number 2 of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) Thursday numbers: #1 SW9 145k (-27%) €1,6M /$1,78M #2 F2 80k (-0%) €630k / $700k #3 J2 70k (-12%) €650k / $725kk #4 Knives Out 40k // €355k / $395k #5 Geheimnis 30k (probably around -0%) €255k / $285k #6 Kaninchen ~30k (~-12%) The Thursday drops are awesome - much better than the projected WE numbers. I hope InsideKino is pessimistic. Edited January 3, 2020 by Aristis 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 2nd Trend: #1 SW9 625k (-43%) 4,38M #2 F2 350k (-28%) 6,035M *it needs only 10k more the have the 10th biggest 7th WE ever... #3 J2 320k (-21%) 1,83M #4 Knives Out 220k #5 Kaninchen 145k (-21%/-37% i.P.) #6 Geheimnis 140k (-8%) #7 Spies 120k (+2%/-18% i.P.) SW9 crossed 4M admissions yesterday as the 6th movie of the year. Edited January 4, 2020 by Aristis 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 2nd trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 625k (-43%)* Frozen II: 350k (-28%)** Jumanji - TNL: 320k (-21%) KO: 220k Kaninchen: 145k (-21% / -37%) Geheimnis: 140k (-8.5%)*** Spies Undercover: 120k (+1% / -18%) Charlie's Angels: 80k Cats: 37.5k (-55% / -65%) Igel: 35k (+3% / -22%) Rabe Socke: 27.5k (-36%) Judy: 27.5k *would only be the 2nd biggest third weekend for a 2019 movie (behind Frozen 2 with 708k). **8k more to beat Aladdin for 10th biggest seventh weekend of all time, but obviously the biggest seventh weekend for a 2019 movie, right now that would be Geheimnis with 143k. If those weekend are counted towards 2020 than we probably already have the biggest thirds and seventh weekend of the year. Baring a surprise of a Germany movie, I'd say that most of the top weekends this year theoretically should belong to TROS and Frozen 2. But they lucky for the movies this year will all be counted towards last year. *** easily the biggest tenth weekend of the year, more than two and a half times the previous one (TLK with 54k); to be the 10th biggest tenth weekend of the year it would need to beat Schindler's List (183,801 admissions on that weekend) , which won't happen. Another weekend with 3 movies above 300k, the third in a row, before that I think the last weekend like that was in Weekend 52 - 2017 (28th-31st December) the 1st weekend of 2018 barely missed #3 had 298k admissions. Btw that weekend looked kinda similar to this, in first place was TLJ (849k) and in third Jumanji (314k), but between them was a German Movie - Dieses bescheuerte Herz with 318k. Edited January 4, 2020 by Taruseth 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 nice that everything went up with Saturday estimates! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 (edited) 3rd trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 600k (-45%)* (down 25k) Frozen II: 375k (-23%)** (up 25k) (total around 6.06M) Jumanji - TNL: 330k (-18%) (up 10k)*** KO: 250k (up 30k! from the last trend)**** Kaninchen: 160k (-13% / -30%) (up 15k) Geheimnis: 155k (+1%!!!!!!)*+* (up 15k) Spies Undercover: 140k (+18% / -4.5%) (up 20k)*+** Charlie's Angels: 80k Cats: 40k (-52% / -63%) (up 2.5k) Igel: 40k (+18% / -11%) (up 5k) Rabe Socke: 37.5k (-13%) (up 10k) Judy: 32.5k (up 5k) *drop is too harsh, 625k would have been better, especially if actuals would have come in above like last week, a 40% drop would be significantly nicer than a 45% one (I know the difference isn't big, but next two weekends most likely will have similar drops and after that with 3*40% drops the weekend would be 236k and 3*45% drops it would be 182k (so quite a difference). **This would be 10th best 7th weekend (beating Aladdin (357,222) and only 1k behind Harry Potter 2 (376,056) so it has a solid chance at 9th best 7th weekend of all time. It should now definitely get past 6.5M (and 6.65M is rather likely as total, but it most likely won't get much further (might even fall short by like 10-20k). *** Damn, this really can end up above Pets 2 as highest movie outside of the Disney four-punch (Frozen, TLK, TROS, Endgame), Geheimnis and Joker (so the 4+M movies) ****Nice opening (maybe with good legs and good WOM this could be the first Millionaire of the year (don't count on it) don't really know of a comp. *+*I stay with my point from before the weekend this will end up above Endgame. *+**Maybe this movie in the end miraculously will get above 1M like all other Blue Sky movies Edited January 5, 2020 by Taruseth 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 Very nice and much stronger estimates (except SW9 of course but 5,5mil total are still possible so not that bad either) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 50 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Frozen II: 375k (-23%)** (up 25k) (total around 6.06M 7mn possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: 7mn possible? not impossible ... probably will end somewhere around 6,8mil but who knows! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Compared to Frozen, it should fall just short, but it was following the first one quite close so far and with January being a disaster it really might have a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) The Monday update looks like that: #1 SW9 610k/4.37M #2 Frozen2 355k/6.04M #3 Jumanji2 335k/1.84M #4 Knives Out 250k (229k without previews) #5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 160k/470k #6 Das perfekte Geheimnis 150k/4.795M #7 Spies in Disguise 130k/330k #8 Charlie's Angels 80k (60k without previews) ... Judy 32.5k (24k) Thomas und seine Freunde 22.5k (18k) Edited January 6, 2020 by el sid 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars 9 610.231 768 795 4.371.861 50.634.243 -44 3 2 Frozen 2 356.485 614 581 6.041.858 49.669.540 -27 7 3 Jumanji 2 338.362 596 568 1.850.687 17.429.482 -16 4 4 Knives Out 229.590 399 575 248.682 2.253.682 - 1 5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 161.254 576 280 474.452 4.050.863 -12 2 6 Das perfekte Geheimnis 152.560 620 246 4.799.786 42.478.872 -1 10 7 Spies in Disguise 129.741 421 308 318.512 2.426.637 +9 2 8 Charlie's Angels 61.052 217 281 80.799 641.053 - 1 9 Cats 40.744 504 81 186.107 1.615.239 -51 2 10 Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein 38.776 309 125 101.116 664.267 +14 2 11 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 37.575 550 68 224.735 1.466.463 -13 4 12 Judy 24.431 113 216 34.030 291.875 - 1 13 Servant 22.825 110 208 22.825 243.323 - 1 14 Thomas & Friends 18.016 427 42 22.028 150.174 - 1 15 The Peanut Butter Falcon 15.152 87 174 74.046 567.121 -11 3 16 Joker 14.271 165 86 4.065.381 37.644.810 -7 13 17 Le Mystère Henri Pick 13.093 97 135 45.698 346.494 -21 2 18 Hustlers 10.287 92 112 285.886 2.459.810 -36 6 19 Parasite 8.092 109 74 392.682 3.410.040 +15 12 20 Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool 7.234 59 123 7.960 65.767 - 1 A good weekend, with Knives Out opening higher than expected - might well clear 1mil total given the target demo. Even Charlie's Angels was no complete flop given the only semi-wide release. Star Wars 9 had an ok hold; while it will probably become the lowest entry in the series (by admissions) it's still a success. And Family stuff in general had excellent holds during this last holiday weekend. Next weekend: For some reason. distributors left this slot pretty empty. Domestic girl movie Vier zauberhafte Schwestern will probably be the biggest opener but #5 on next week's chart would already be a big success. For horror fans there's The Grudge and Underwater but the double opening will probably dilute the possible PTA. And as an Austrian, I have to mention Little Joe, the latest movie by Jessica Hausner, but that's strictly arthouse fare. So, the most interesting questions next weekend: What drop can SW9 manage? And can Jumanji2 (which is showing excellent legs) beat Frozen2 for #2? 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top20 last weekend: [...] Star Wars 9 had an ok hold; while it will probably become the lowest entry in the series (by admissions) it's still a success. And Family stuff in general had excellent holds during this last holiday weekend. [...] What drop can SW9 manage? And can Jumanji2 (which is showing excellent legs) beat Frozen2 for #2? That would be based on what you consider the series (or if you count only BRD or add DDR numbers too), if you only mean the sequel trilogy then you would be correct. But if you'd look at BRD numbers only and all 9 movies (so all Episodes) it would only be the third lowest, ESB and ROTJ had only 5.05M admissions (within 2k of each other incl. their 1997 reissue). And it falling short of AOC and ROTS has been what was predicted since OD. As they ended with 5.7M and 5.6M. But I'd still say TROS should get too around 5.5M. I'd say Jumanji has a solid shot as it's probably less Christmas heavy compared to Frozen (I know not Christmas themed but still has a kinda christmasy vibe to it). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 What's kind of funny is how TROS and ROTS compare at this specific point in time: ROTS: 612k 3rd weekend, 4.368m total TROS: 610k 3rd weekend, 4.372m total Just 2k apart on the weekend, and less than 4k in total. What are the odds of that? ROTS should move ahead over the next few weeks though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 SW vs SW: Spoiler WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 1.092 -21% 3.384 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 610 -44% 4.372 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,500M Frozen vs Frozen: Spoiler Frozen1 Frozen2 WE Weekend Mid-week Week Weekend Mid-week Week 1st 572 654 124 696 1.430 1.635 246 1.676 2nd 577 1% 1.355 121 698 0% 941 -34% 2.822 174 1.115 -33% 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 114 590 -15% 708 -25% 3.704 135 843 -24% 4th 433 -9% 2.499 203 636 8% 468 -34% 4.307 108 576 -32% 5th 540 25% 3.242 194 734 15% 393 -16% 4.808 212 605 5% 6th 402 -26% 3.838 95 497 -32% 485 23% 5.505 181 666 10% 7th 158 -61% 4.091 19 177 -64% 356 -27% 6.042 8th 107 -32% 4.217 13 120 -32% 9th 81 -24% 4.311 12 93 -23% 10th 89 10% 4.412 0 4.767M 0 0 6,750M 0 F2 missed the 10th biggest 7th WE by only 1k... But it had the 7th biggest 6th week after the 5th biggest 6th WE. WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 393 -16% 4.808 6th 195 -47% 5.521 485 23% 5.505 7th 242 24% 5.893 356 -27% 6.042 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6,750M I hope F2 gets close to 6,3M next WE and should therefore lead the comparison for at least two more weeks. And the new one, Jumanji vs Jumanji: Spoiler WE Jumanji 1 Jumanji 2 1st 198 198 383 401 2nd 314 59% 681 303 -21% 791 3rd 299 -5% 1.273 404 33% 1.355 4th 168 -44% 1.484 338 -16% 1.851 5th 113 -33% 1.623 6th 88 -22% 1.729 7th 63 -28% 1.809 8th 49 -22% 1.875 2,009M 2,500M 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 we saw Knives Out this evening, well attended for a Thursday show and audience liked it, should have a fine hold and I see no problems getting to >1mil in Germany 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) Thursday numbers: Holidays are over so there are huge drops, for the WE they are much lower: #1 SW9 30k (-79%) #2 Knives Out 20k (-50%) #3 Jumanji2 12,5k (-82%) #4 Kaninchen 10,6k (?) #5 Frozen2 9,5k (-88%) #6 Geheimnis 7,5k (-75%) Edited January 10, 2020 by Aristis 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...