Taruseth Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: First weekend estimates from insidekino.de #1: BadBoys3 - 450k (incl previews) - excellent! #2: 1917 - 180k (incl previews) - also better than I expected, fine number! #3: StarWars9 - 135k (-47%) #4: KnivesOut - 120k (-35%) #5: Lindenberg! - 130k (incl. previews) I'd expect SW9 to drop harder than 50% in the end, but the good openers are making up for that, fine weekend! I expected Bad Boys to open below 200k. lol (I know that insidekino predicted 400k, but I kinda thought it was dead), but it should get past 1M admissions pretty easily and end above 1.25M I don't really know, but you are probably right, so 4.935-4.945M after the weekend... -> Thinking that SW9 and Geheimnis will all end around endgame, so we probably will have 3 movies between 5.1M and 5.2M. Knives would be at 665k after a 120k weekend. Thinking it will hit 1M but probably not get much further. So end of the year list would look like this: Frozen 2: 6.65M TLK: 5.55M TROS: 5.15M Geheimnis: 5.15M Endgame: 5.13M Joker: 4.1M Pets 2.48M Jumanji: 2.48M Edited January 17, 2020 by Taruseth 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 2nd estimates even better for BB3; like last weekend, SW9 is lower and KO higher than first estmates 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 3rd Trend: Most movies increase! #1 BB3 475k #2 1917 180k #3 Lindenberg 150k #4 SW9 140k (-45%) #5 Knives Out 140k (-25%) #6 Frozen2 110k (-27%) #7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%) #8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.) #9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%) #10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%) #11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%) #12 Weathering with you 50k Edited January 19, 2020 by Aristis 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aristis said: 3rd Trend: Most movies increase! #1 BB3 475k #2 1917 180k #3 Lindenberg 150k #4 SW9 140k (-45%) #5 Knives Out 140k (-25%) #6 Frozen2 110k (-27%) #7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%) #8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.) #9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%) #10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%) #11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%) #12 Weathering with you 50k BB3 should considering all most all movies end up with a 3x get above 1.3M (a 3x of weekend WO Previews). 1917's trend hasn't changed. Lindenberg does okay, it could have good legs. SW9 is slightly above the first trend, that would be at least something. Hoping for 5.2M in the end. Knives Out should leg it past 1M in the end, but that will only happen barely. Frozen is 30k above the 2nd trend, should be around 6.4M after the weekend and considering it dropped so little despite 3 new releases it should surely get to 6.65M, hopefully even close 6.7M. This will be it's ninth weekend above 100k (only movie with more this year is Geheimnis which had 10.)* Jumanji with a good drop too (higher than KO and FII, but that is okay after the holds it had before). Still should be around 2.22M after the weekend and so a final around Pets 2 still looks likely. Geheimnis should pass 5M today. And I'd say a total barely above Endgame is still doable, meaning endgame would drop to #5 (below Frozen, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis). Kaninchen around 700k after the weekend. Spies in Disguise with an amazing drop (probably thanks to now kids movies opening), probably around 475k after the weekend, total of 600k? Which would still be the lowest by far for an animated movie by Blu Sky. And twelve movies above 50k, that's nice, seven above 100k is nice too. Overall I'd say January was of to a better start than I thought (especially considering SW9 performing below TLJ and not slightly above as I hoped). Most weekends above 100k: 2019: Geheimnis 10; Frozen II 9; TLK 8; Green Book 7; 2018: Fantastic Beast II 8, BR 8 (5+3 in-between 2 weekends below); Junge...frische Life 7; 2017: Despicable Me III 7; TLJ & FJG III 6; La La Land 6 (5+1 in-between 2 weekends) - didn't really took a look probably a whole lot more of 6 week movies; 2016: Zoomania: 8; Hartmann: 8; (6+2); Pets 2: 7 (6+1) and Revenant, Finding dory, Ice Age 5 and Me Before You had 6 weekends. So overall 3 movies with nice legs last year, I don't think this year has that strength. outside of a german surprise we are in for a grim year, because: What big franchise opens a movie outside of James Bond: If one looks at the top franchises (above 20M) of the past 21 years (1999-2019) or so: (above 10M, above 9M, above 6M, above 5M, above 3M) HP: 69.948M (10 movies - 1, 2, 7, 8, 10) LotR/Hobbit: 51.811M (6 movies - 3, 3, 6, 6, 6) SW: 45.808M (8 movies - 0, 1, 2, 6, 7 - one at 1.364M) Marvel: 37.983M (21 movies - 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 - 4 more above 2M)*** 007: 35,131M (6 movies - 0, 0, 2, 4, 6) Ice Age: 34.377M (5 movies - 0, 0, 4, 4, 4 - one at 2.925M) PotC: 26.559M (5 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 4 - one at 2.694M) FJG: 21.282M (3 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 3) F&F: 20.620M (9 movies - 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)** Despicable Me: 17.788M (4 movies - 0, 0, 1, 1, 3 - one at 2.522M) Madagascar: 16.751M (3 movies - 0, 0, 2, 2, 3)* *Had this in and then realised this only had 3 movies. **Two outliners with average of 1.808M (Marvel) & 2.291M (F&F). Only other franchise below a 5M average is Despicable Me at 4.447M. Might try to look for all franchises above 10M, though that theoretically would include Avatar (1 movie) and above 10M would also be the movie Schuh des Manitus. And probably a lot of other movie franchises. Even the likes of Frozen would qualify (around 11.15M right now - so average of 5.58M) Edited January 19, 2020 by Taruseth 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 IHi everyone, someone know how much admissions Avatar and Titanic made without her re-release (I know how much they did with re-release) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start! Tbh, January is a fair bet in Germany after christmas trailering. That's why it's even more frustrating, that they wasted that Jan 9th weekend. And that's only the start of questionable scheduling issues to come. On Feb 20th, we have "The Call of The Wild" vs. "Lassie" and "Fantasy Island" vs. "The Boy 2". On March 26th we have Mulan, "Trolls 2"and "Peter Rabbit 2" opening against each other. Mark G, of Insidekino wrote another great blog after finishing his visit at the "Münchener Filmwoche", the german Cinema Con. http://www.blog.insidekino.de/?p=8628 Edited January 19, 2020 by Poseidon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, LPLC said: IHi everyone, someone know how much admissions Avatar and Titanic made without her re-release (I know how much they did with re-release) Avatar:http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2009.htm Titanic: http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D1998.htm Edited January 19, 2020 by Poseidon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 (edited) The late but nice Monday update: #1 Bad Boys for Life 480k #2 1917 185k (170k without previews) #3 Lindenberg! 160k (140k) #4 SW9 140k/4.970M #5 Knives Out 137.5k/680k #6 Frozen II 110k/6.400M #7 Jumanji 2 110k/2.220M #8 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 80k/200k #9 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 62.5k/715k #10 Das perfekte Geheimnis 60k/5.000M #11 Weathering with You 60k (edit: Mark_G writes that it had only showtimes on Thursday and Sunday so no Wednesday previews and it is #10 or #11 of the chart; Your Name opened similar with 64.830 admissions two years ago). #12 Spies in Disguise 55k/475k Edited January 20, 2020 by el sid 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bad Boys 3 439.289 584 752 481.653 4.605.772 - 1 2 1917 171.001 416 411 192.079 1.675.402 - 1 3 Lindenberg! 141.701 475 298 167.283 1.574.309 - 1 4 Star Wars 9 140.441 562 250 4.966.534 57.275.784 -45 5 5 Knives Out 138.157 606 228 682.007 6.154.124 -26 3 6 Jumanji 2 110.500 602 184 2.221.459 20.771.494 -35 6 7 Frozen 2 108.891 665 164 6.399.577 52.397.806 -27 9 8 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 81.433 485 168 201.434 1.372.076 -9 2 9 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 62.735 544 115 714.123 6.023.470 -32 4 10 Tenki No Ko 61.391 217 283 61.391 731.688 - 1 11 Das perfekte Geheimnis 60.881 529 115 5.003.638 44.329.282 -29 12 12 Spies in Dusguise 55.526 439 126 473.089 3.511.559 -10 4 13 The Grudge 28.162 233 121 90.205 799.477 -46 2 14 Psy 3 24.405 108 226 24.405 280.600 - 1 15 Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein 22.145 383 58 155.667 1.011.114 +6 4 16 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 16.909 478 35 271.429 1.755.577 -17 6 17 Judy 12.671 134 95 87.615 739.646 -34 3 18 Charlie's Angels 10.630 208 51 138.943 1.131.735 -62 3 19 It Must be Heaven 10.508 73 144 12.520 95.850 - 1 20 Queen & Slim 10.489 104 101 49.306 404.486 -48 2 Three strong openers and fine holds especially for domestic productions - nice weekend! I was surprised how big Bad Boys 3 became, I had thought the predecessors were too long ago. 1917 should have good legs with Oscars buzz and Lindenberg! is the kind of movie which usually has great legs, too - so expect all three of them to stay in the charts for quite a while. Next weekend: Til Schweiger's Die Hochzeit is a strong contender for #1 but with BB3 having obviously good WOM, that cake isn't eaten yet. Also opening: Jojo Rabbit. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de have BB3 in lead with 300k admissions (-32%); Die Hochzeit on #2 with 200k (a little disappointing) and 1917 on #3 with 165k admissions (that would be a <%5 drop, wow) 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: First weekend estimates from insidekino.de have BB3 in lead with 300k admissions (-32%); Die Hochzeit on #2 with 200k (a little disappointing) and 1917 on #3 with 165k admissions (that would be a <%5 drop, wow) TROS, Frozen II and Jumanji TNL all with 80k, movies, that are in weekend 6, 10 and 7. Totals according to insidekino.de: TROS: 5080k (so got above 5M on Wednesday) Frozen II: 6495k J - TNL: 2320k So they probably will end with something like 5.2M, 6.7M and 2.5M 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 (edited) As I'm a bit later I already put in the WE projection in Italics: SW: Spoiler WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 1.092 -21% 3.384 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 610 -44% 4.372 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 253 -58% 4.763 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 140 -45% 4.967 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 80 -43% 5.080 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,250M Frozen: Spoiler WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 393 -16% 4.808 6th 195 -47% 5.521 485 23% 5.505 7th 242 24% 5.893 356 -27% 6.042 8th 111 -54% 6.160 150 -58% 6.267 9th 81 -27% 6.323 109 -27% 6.400 10th 125 54% 6.497 80 -27% 6.495 6.946M 6,700M They will still be very close after this WE... Frozen1 Frozen2 WE Weekend Mid-week Week Weekend Mid-week Week 1st 572 654 124 696 1.430 1.635 246 1.676 2nd 577 1% 1.355 121 698 0% 941 -34% 2.822 174 1.115 -33% 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 114 590 -15% 708 -25% 3.704 135 843 -24% 4th 433 -9% 2.499 203 636 8% 468 -34% 4.307 108 576 -32% 5th 540 25% 3.242 194 734 15% 393 -16% 4.808 212 605 5% 6th 402 -26% 3.838 95 497 -32% 485 23% 5.505 181 666 10% 7th 158 -61% 4.091 19 177 -64% 356 -27% 6.042 75 431 -35% 8th 107 -32% 4.217 13 120 -32% 150 -58% 6.267 24 174 -60% 9th 81 -24% 4.311 12 93 -23% 109 -27% 6.400 15 124 -29% 10th 89 10% 4.412 80 -27% 6.495 0 4.767M 0 0 6,700M 0 Who would have thought F2 could be this close to the leggy first so late in the run... Jumanji: Spoiler WE Jumanji 1 Jumanji 2 1st 198 198 383 401 2nd 314 59% 681 303 -21% 791 3rd 299 -5% 1.273 404 33% 1.355 4th 168 -44% 1.484 338 -16% 1.851 5th 113 -33% 1.623 171 -49% 2.086 6th 88 -22% 1.729 111 -35% 2.221 7th 63 -28% 1.809 80 -28% 2.320 8th 49 -22% 1.875 2,009M 2,500M Edited January 24, 2020 by Aristis 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Monday numbers: #1 BB3 305k (-31%/-37%) 885k #2 Hochzeit 165k (4-day), 205k (i.P.) #3 1917 140k (-18%/-27%) 400k #4 Lindenberg 105k (-26%/-37%) 325k #5 Knives Out 95k (-31%) 810k #6 SW9 80k (-43%) 5,085M #7 Frozen2 80k (-27%) 6,495M #8 Jumanji2 75k (-32%) 2,310M ... Jojo Rabbit 70k 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bad Boys 3 307.653 610 504 888.215 8.404.742 -30 2 2 Die Hochzeit 166.207 580 287 209.200 1.834.644 - 1 3 1917 142.421 430 331 399.876 3.481.832 -17 2 4 Lindenberg! 106.811 520 205 325.827 3.043.609 -25 2 5 Knives Out 95.513 591 162 810.183 7.281.551 -31 4 6 Star Wars 9 82.111 448 183 5.086.123 58.577.313 -42 6 7 Frozen 2 79.161 692 114 6.494.114 53.094.472 -27 10 8 Jumanji 2 74.851 520 144 2.312.954 21.587.793 -32 7 9 Die Wolf-Gäng 60.614 396 153 61.437 427.907 - 1 10 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 56.646 535 106 266.607 1.808.549 -30 3 11 Das geheime Leben der Bäume 55.434 275 202 62.873 531.775 - 1 12 Jojo Rabbit 49.778 176 283 70.658 552.676 - 1 13 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 43.038 493 87 781.788 6.538.049 -31 5 14 Das perfekte Geheimnis 42.107 473 89 5.057.974 44.843.984 -31 13 15 Spies in Disguise 40.225 458 88 518.159 3.818.800 -28 5 16 Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein 18.012 375 48 175.490 1.136.918 -19 5 17 The Grudge 15.193 232 65 110.562 974.723 -46 3 18 Les Misérables 13.493 84 161 22.059 165.505 - 1 19 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 12.933 385 34 285.434 1.841.966 -24 7 20 Tenki no Ko 11.352 223 51 72.752 861.227 -82 2 Bad Boys 3 had a better drop than expected while wider opener Die Hochzeit stayed behind expectations, so overall an ok wekend. 1917 seems to have good WOM but it got more theaters, too - let's see how it keeps up the following weekends. Next weekend: Dolittle will be the big opener but it's questionable if it can get to #1. With little new competition, most releases should see healthy drops. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 So, with that weekend SW9 has actually passed Endgame for no. 1 of the year in terms of currency. And it might just have enough steam left to top the 60m mark. Kind of weird when a movie is ahead by 1.5m admissions but ends up with less money made. The third and fifth (provided Das perfekte Geheimnis makes it past Endgame, which it should) ranked movie ending up no. 1 and 2 in terms of currency makes for a weird looking chart. Then again, last year the 4th placed movie in admissions ended up second in terms of currency as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 (edited) At least Dolittle isn't dumped here in Germany. I saw surprisingly many TV-spots for it, it has 8 or 9 showtimes each day in e.g. the mathäser (in medium-sized or even big cinema halls) and gets 570 copies (which is a big start). The reservations are not overwhelming so far but this is normal for this type of film. It's a bit unclever that a film about Heinzelmännchen/brownies starts on the same weekend but still Mark_G sees at the moment 800k total admissions for Dolittle. Edited January 29, 2020 by el sid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Thursday number: #1 BB3 23k (-34%) €210k / $230k #2 1917 15k (-21%) €125k / $138k #3 Hochzeit 13k (-19%) €110k / $120k - I would have hoped for a worse hold... #4 Dolittle 12,5k (-) $125k / $138k #5 Little Women 10k (-) €90k / $100k 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 while the "race" for #1 is not yet decided, overall it's back to the daily grind and boring weekends at the BO ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 (edited) The first trend: #1 or 2 Bad Boys for Life (will have 1M admissions including today) with 200k and Dolittle with 220k (including previews) #3 Die Hochzeit 135k #4 1917 105k #5 Die Heinzels - Rückkehr der Heinzelmännchen 85k ... Countdown 55k Kartoffelsalat 3 (Mark_G joked that there wasn't any demand for a sequel so we just got part three ) 7.5k Edited January 31, 2020 by el sid 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...