Taruseth Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 Also: Why the Bl**y F*** do movies open on a Wednesday? DS2, Thor4, Black Panther, Avatar are all supposed to open on a Wednesday. Only one of those I understand is Black Panther cause that Wednesday is a holiday in parts of Germany. It's only lowering your opening weekend - well that only for the people that follow the box office - for all others it increases the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Also: Why the Bl**y F*** do movies open on a Wednesday? DS2, Thor4, Black Panther, Avatar are all supposed to open on a Wednesday. Only one of those I understand is Black Panther cause that Wednesday is a holiday in parts of Germany. It's only lowering your opening weekend - well that only for the people that follow the box office - for all others it increases the numbers. As per Mark, because you get higher % of GROSS for first 3 weeks of release in Germany and releasing on WED or TUE give you that one/two extra day with 3 Weeks i.e. 21 days. Other reason is you get a bigger number for opening weekend, even though you have deflated actual weekend for reporting purpose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: As per Mark, because you get higher % of GROSS for first 3 weeks of release in Germany and releasing on WED or TUE give you that one/two extra day with 3 Weeks i.e. 21 days. Other reason is you get a bigger number for opening weekend, even though you have deflated actual weekend for reporting purpose. Oh, so the studios get a bit more. So in 20 years movie will release on a Monday... That's true most don't care about that. Also the shift is pretty drastic - TFA and the likes had midnight previews on Thursday at 00:01. At one Cinema DS2 had midnight previews on Wednesday at 00:01, so not just a day before but also previews before that xD. Also making it more unlikely to get an Opening Weekend of more than 1m. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 40 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said: Thanks a lot (not) for writing this, i had actually succeded in forgetting these movies existed Now you have to live again with the horror those movies are and they sold like 21m tickets combined HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA😈 Or you just go to the cinema to watch some movie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altglascontainer Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 Montags-Trend: Doctor Strange 2 (800T), FB2 (ca. 112,5T), The Lost City (ca. 67,5T), Downton Abbey II (ca. 47,5T), Die Biene Maja (ca. 50T) 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 WK: May 6-8, 2022 (Fri-Sun) [Austria] #1 DS: MOM : €1,007,744 / €1,435,081 #2 Lost City : €151,013 / €814,072 #3 Fantastic Beasts 3 : €119,031 / €2,831,866 #4 Maya the Bee: The Golden Orb : €77,805 / €102,943 #5 Sonic 2 : €63,292 / €1,280,255 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 10, 2022 Author Share Posted May 10, 2022 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Doctor Strange 2 638.287 649 983 799.293 8.723.490 - 1 2 Fantastic Beasts 3 112.877 657 172 2.484.721 25.167.035 -41 5 3 The Lost City 67.680 605 112 396.940 3.572.624 -35 3 4 Downton Abbey 2 48.315 466 104 145.467 1.438.771 -19 2 5 Die Biene Maja 2 38.436 588 65 50.136 359.041 - 1 6 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 33.485 607 55 865.709 7.001.600 -39 6 7 The Northman 27.957 382 73 173.145 1.656.741 -41 3 8 The Bad Boys 23.617 540 44 679.867 5.047.587 -34 8 9 Eingeschlossene Gesellschaft 19.993 580 34 255.158 2.271.843 -46 4 10 Rabiye Kurnaz gegen George W. Bush 15.792 175 90 60.889 497.031 -31 2 - MET: Turandot (LEO) 12.093 197 61 12.093 358.524 11 Everything Everywhere All at Once 11.906 100 119 33.608 302.173 -8 2 12 Le Loup et le Lion 6.532 310 21 291.608 2.108.354 -46 8 13 The Batman 5.487 178 31 1.722.974 18.088.660 -67 10 14 Uncharted 3.945 141 28 1.504.448 13.649.003 -64 12 Apart from the very nice opening for Doctor Strange 2, this was a poor weekend … Austria with similar numbers. Considering the cirumstances, this was a really excellent OW for the latest Marvel product! Next weekend: Weather should be more favourable to the movies, so expect good holds or maybe increases for family stuff. No really big openers, Firestarter and french comedy Pourris gâtés will probably be the biggest ones, #2 seems possible with FB3 dropping. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 (edited) well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%) everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true Edited May 13, 2022 by IndustriousAngel 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%) everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true FB3-70k(-38%) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: well, weather in Germany seems better than here in Austria (where it's rainy today); steep drops first estimates from insidekino.de have DS2 at 300k for the weekend (53% drop); FB3 is estimated at 70k (-48%) everything else below 50k, horrible weekend if true 21 - 28 Celsius, enough wind to make the heat very enjoyable even between noon and 5 pm, no rain whatsoever ... Just awful. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Sunday trend: DSMoM: 315k (-51% or - 61% from WTFSS) total after the weekend should be 1250k FB3: 72.5k (-36%) (total after the weekend should be around 2580k (or a couple k higher) Lost City: 40k (-41%) (total ~450k) Downton Abey II: 30k (-38%) (total ~195k) As a comp FB3 had a 452k 2nd weekend and was at 1525k after it. And a 321k third weekend (and was at 2061k after that). Honestly thinking DSMoM could end up just a bit above 2m. FB3 might get to 2800k. Lost City should get to 600k Downton Abbey will hopefully get to 300k. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 The Monday update: #1 DSMoM 327.5k/1.27M total admissions #2 FB 3 72.5k/2.587,5M #3 The Lost City 40k/452.5k #4 Downton Abbey II 30k/195k #5 Die Biene Maja - Das geheime Königreich 22.5/80k ... Meine schrecklich verwöhnte Familie 22.5k Willi und die Wunderkröte 12.5k Firestarter 12k 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 Germany's Top10 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Doctor Strange 2 327.924 664 494 1.270.109 13.778.076 -49 2 2 Fantastic Beasts 3 72.884 642 114 2.588.739 26.174.764 -35 6 3 The Lost City 39.685 552 72 450.767 4.051.719 -41 4 4 Downton Abbey 2 30.795 545 57 196.911 1.931.527 -36 3 5 Die Biene Maja 2 23.396 629 37 80.147 570.676 -39 2 6 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 22.643 557 41 890.974 7.200.868 -32 7 7 The Bad Boys 17.836 505 35 700.076 5.190.266 -24 9 8 The Northman 15.414 336 46 198.109 1.890.491 -45 4 9 Firestarter 11.816 337 35 11.816 106.994 - 1 10 Everything Everywhere All at Once 11.139 136 82 51.773 466.275 -6 3 Horrible numbers … Austria a bit better but still not good. Next weekend: No big openers again, domestic comedy Stasikomödie might be the biggest one, #3 is possible. Dog is also opening; while probably not a big success, animal movies tend to have a reliable audience here. 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 First estimates for Germany's weekend from insidekino.de: #1: DrStrange2 - 170k (-48%) #2: FB3 - 42,5k (-42%) #3: Dog - 47,5 incl. previews 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 Saturday update - no big changes, depressing numbers overall ... it seems that where the weather isn't too fine for moviegoing, it's so bad you can't get to the movies either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Saturday update - no big changes, depressing numbers overall ... it seems that where the weather isn't too fine for moviegoing, it's so bad you can't get to the movies either. DS2 might actually struggle to reach 2M. Might be at 1470k after the weekend. Would need to add 3.2x that weekend 3rd weekend of FB3 was worth 320k (for a 2061k total up to that point). FB3 also not looking good. 2640k or so... will probably end around 2775k or so. On 5/3/2022 at 9:53 PM, Taruseth said: For future movies: DSMOM T-6 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 5 163 1321 12,34% DSMOM T-1 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 6 325 1491 21,80% Might try to dig up my old comps and start with those - even though they were all pre-pandemic. Some live seems to slowly get into it. They now have an OV show on everyday but tomorrow :(. Don't know if I should just go to one in German tomorrow evening or go Friday / Saturday evening. DSMOM T-1 in Bremen - one of the cinemas has midnight previews in 1.5 hours. Bremen is an odd one out: The cinemas with the most sold is the smallest (has 1863, the other two have 2785 and 3341 (that has the least sold it has three large halls with 572, 425 and 425 seats) Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 27 1793 10333 17,35% TG2 is for Wednesday previews at for T-4 Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 2 107 575 18,61% Bigger comp Cinestar Bremen, Cinemax Bremen and Cinestar Frankfurt On 12/18/2019 at 2:59 AM, Taruseth said: Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker Reveal hidden contents CineStar Bremen Wednesday: 3D 14:00: 22 / 322 3D 16:00: 131 / 572 3D 17:00: 43 / 425 3D 18:00: 56 / 322 3D 20:00: 307 / 425 3D 20:30: 148 / 572 2D 15:00: 30 / 425 2D 19:00: 185 / 425 Total: 922 / 3488 -> 26.4% Thursday: 3D 14:00: 0 / 322 3D 16:00: 45 / 572 3D 17:00: 11 / 425 3D 18:00: 20 / 322 3D 20:00: 230 / 425 3D 20:30: 55 / 572 3D 21:30: 4 / 322 3D 22:30: 4 / 296 2D 15:00: 8 / 425 2D 19:00: 140 / 425 2D 22:50: 5 / 425 Total: 522 / 4531 -> 11.52% Friday: 3D OV 20:30: 68 / 279 3D 14:00: 1 / 322 3D 16:00: 69 / 572 3D 17:00: 3 / 425 3D 18:00: 16 / 322 3D 20:00: 267 / 425 3D 20:30: 69 / 572 3D 21:30: 8 / 322 3D 22:30: 8 / 296 2D 15:00: 11 / 425 2D 19:00: 176 / 425 2D 22:50: 5 / 425 Total: 701 / 4810 -> 14.57% Saturday: 3D 12:15: 44 / 572 3D 13:15: 4 / 425 3D 14:00: 6 / 322 3D 16:00: 131 / 572 3D 17:00: 10 / 425 3D 18:00: 18 / 322 3D 20:00: 228 / 425 3D 20:30: 49 / 572 3D 21:30: 5 / 322 3D 22:30: 3 / 296 2D 11:20: 2 / 425 2D 15:00: 28 / 425 2D 19:00: 195 / 425 2D 22:50: 4 / 425 Total: 727 / 5953 -> 12.21% Sunday: 3D OV 20:30: 22 / 279 3D 12:15: 34 / 572 3D 13:15: 3 / 425 3D 14:00: 16 / 322 3D 16:00: 119 / 572 3D 17:00: 7 / 425 3D 18:00: 9 / 322 3D 20:00: 154 / 425 3D 20:30: 29 / 572 3D 21:30: 5 / 322 3D 22:30: 1 / 296 2D 11:20: 2 / 425 2D 15:00: 94 / 425 2D 19:00: 108 / 425 2D 22:50: 3 / 425 Total: 606 / 6232 -> 9.72% TFSS: 2556 / 21526 WTFSS: 3479 / 25014 CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday: 3D 10:00: 58 / 232 3D 15:00: 19 / 297 3D 16:00: 139 / 342 3D 17:00: 71 / 186 3D 20:00: 252 / 342 3D 20:50: 67 / 186 3D 22:30: 17 / 297 OV 3D 19:30: 135 / 186 OV 3D 23:00: 45 / 186 2D 10:30: 14 / 186 2D 14:00: 12 / 186 2D 17:30: 94 / 186 2D 19:00: 208 / 297 2D 20:30: 92 / 163 2D 22:45: 20 / 145 OV 2D 19:30: 13 / 186 Total: 1243 / 3417 -> 36.38% Thursday: 3D 14:15: 0 / 145 3D 16:00: 90 / 342 3D 17:00: 4 / 186 3D 20:00: 193 / 342 3D 20:30: 6 / 186 3D 22:30: 2 / 297 OV 3D 19:30: 136 / 186 OV 3D 23:00: 2 / 186 2D 15:00: 4 / 186 2D 17:30: 16 / 186 2D 19:00: 209 / 297 2D 22:00: 0 / 145 OV 2D 21:00: 15 / 186 Total: 677 / 2870 -> 23.59% Friday: 3D 14:15: 4 / 145 3D 16:00: 117 / 342 3D 17:00: 15 / 186 3D 20:00: 224 / 342 3D 20:30: 26 / 186 3D 22:30: 2 / 297 OV 3D 19:30: 131 / 186 OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186 2D 15:00: 6 / 186 2D 17:30: 15 / 186 2D 19:00: 196 / 297 2D 22:00: 18 / 145 OV 2D 21:00: 7 / 186 Total: 761 / 2870 -> 26.52% Saturday: 3D 11:30: 0 / 297 3D 14:30: 0 / 145 3D 16:00: 127 / 342 3D 17:00: 15 / 186 3D 20:00: 165 / 342 3D 20:50: 22 / 186 3D 22:30: 35 / 297 OV 3D 19:30: 90 / 186 OV 3D 23:00: 1 / 186 2D 12:30: 0 / 342 2D 15:00: 20 / 297 2D 17:30: 17 / 186 2D 19:00: 194 / 297 2D 22:45: 0 / 145 OV 2D 16:20: 3 / 178 OV 2D 19:30: 8 / 186 Total: 697 / 3798 -> 18.35% Sunday: 3D 11:30: 4 / 297 3D 14:30: 7 / 145 3D 16:00: 133 / 342 3D 17:00: 9 / 186 3D 20:00: 158 / 342 3D 20:50: 5 / 186 3D 22:30: 0 / 297 OV 3D 19:30: 104 / 186 OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186 2D 12:30: 8 / 342 2D 15:00: 16 / 297 2D 17:30: 9 / 186 2D 19:00: 136 / 297 2D 20:30: 27 / 186 2D 22:45: 0 / 145 OV 2D 21:15: 7 / 186 Total: 623 / 3806 -> 16.37% TFSS: 2758 / 13344 WTFSS: 4001 / 16761 Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt Wednesday: 3D OV 12:30: 72 / 642 3D OV 14:00: 77 / 273 3D OV 16:30: 189 / 642 3D OV 17:30: 86 / 273 3D OV 18:30: 139 / 283 3D OV 20:30: 512 / 642 3D OV 21:15: 178 / 273 3D OV 22:15: 104 / 283 3D 12:00: 14 / 624 3D 14:15: 44 / 351 3D 16:00: 100 / 624 3D 17:00: 46 / 195 3D 18:00: 161 / 351 3D 20:00: 463 / 624 3D 21:30: 145 / 351 3D 22:30: 62 / 344 2D 10:30: 36 / 344 2D 15:30: 55 / 344 2D 19:30: 209 / 344 2D 19:30: 29 / 182 2D OV 11:00: 60 / 202 2D OV 15:00: 59 / 202 2D OV 19:00: 163 / 202 2D OV 23:00: 34 / 195 Total: 3037 / 8790 -> 34.55% Thursday: 3D OV 14:00: 22 / 273 3D OV 16:30: 126 / 642 3D OV 17:30: 3 / 273 3D OV 18:30: 19 / 283 3D OV 20:30: 459 / 642 3D OV 21:15: 14 / 273 3D OV 22:15: 102 / 283 3D 14:15: 24 / 351 3D 16:00: 134 / 624 3D 17:00: 6 / 195 3D 17:45: 12 / 351 3D 20:00: 414 / 624 3D 21:30: 20 / 351 3D 22:30: 39 / 344 2D 15:00: 11 / 344 2D 19:00: 199 / 344 2D 23:00: 3 / 182 2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202 2D OV 19:30: 144 / 202 2D OV 23:15: 2 / 195 Total: 1759 / 6978 -> 25.21% Friday: 3D OV 14:00: 34 / 273 3D OV 16:30: 120 / 642 3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273 3D OV 18:30: 6 / 283 3D OV 20:30: 349 / 642 3D OV 21:15: 22 / 273 3D OV 22:15: 52 / 283 3D 14:15: 107 / 351 3D 16:00: 176 / 624 3D 17:00: 3 / 195 3D 17:45: 15 / 351 3D 20:00: 380 / 624 3D 21:30: 29 / 351 3D 22:30: 31 / 344 2D 15:00: 25 / 344 2D 19:00: 216 / 344 2D 23:00: 2 / 182 2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202 2D OV 19:30: 135 / 202 2D OV 23:15: 6 / 195 Total: 1716 / 6978 -> 24.595 Saturday: 3D OV 12:30: 0 / 642 3D OV 14:00: 75 / 273 3D OV 16:30: 180 / 642 3D OV 17:30: 0 / 273 3D OV 18:30: 18 / 283 3D OV 20:30: 223 / 642 3D OV 21:15: 9 / 273 3D OV 22:15: 20 / 283 3D 12:00: 7 / 624 3D 14:15: 49 / 351 3D 16:00: 202 / 624 3D 17:00: 4 / 195 3D 17:45: 9 / 351 3D 20:00: 285 / 624 3D 21:30: 7 / 351 3D 22:30: 25 / 344 2D 10:30: 2 / 344 2D 15:30: 11 / 344 2D 19:30: 139 / 344 2D 23:00: 0 / 182 2D OV 11:00: 10 / 202 2D OV 15:30: 18 / 202 2D OV 19:30: 84 / 202 2D OV 23:15: 4 / 195 Total: 1381 / 8790 -> 15.71% Sunday: 3D OV 12:30: 8 / 642 3D OV 14:00: 68 / 273 3D OV 16:30: 132 / 642 3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273 3D OV 18:30: 0 / 283 3D OV 20:30: 153 / 642 3D OV 21:15: 2 / 273 3D OV 22:15: 2 / 283 3D 12:00: 19 / 624 3D 14:15: 64 / 351 3D 16:00: 235 / 624 3D 17:00: 3 / 195 3D 17:45: 9 / 351 3D 20:00: 137 / 624 3D 21:30: 2 / 351 3D 22:30: 10 / 344 2D 10:30: 3 / 344 2D 15:30: 5 / 344 2D 19:30: 81 / 344 2D 23:00: 0 / 182 2D OV 11:00: 1 / 202 2D OV 15:30: 5 / 202 2D OV 19:30: 95 / 202 2D OV 23:15: 0 / 195 Total: 1036 / 8790 -> 11.79% TFSS: 5892 / 31536 WTFSS: 8965 / 40326 Total: (T-0) W: 1243 + 922 + 3073 = 5238 / 15695 Th: 677 + 522 + 1759 = 2958 / 14379 Fri: 761 + 701 + 1716 = 3178 / 14658 Sat: 697 + 727 + 1381 = 2805 / 18541 Sun: 623 + 606 + 1036 = 2265 / 18828 TFSS: 2758 + 2556 + 5892 = 11206 / 66406 -> 16.87% WTFSS: 4001 + 3478 + 8965 = 16444 / 82101 -> 20.03% In the following the italic ones are kinda useless (absolutely useless) 5-day comps (also taken on Tuesday evening): TLK: W: 2343 => 469k (only Wednesday) TFSS: 1842 => 5608k (TFSS) WTFSS: 4185 => 4445k (WTFSS) Adjusted (only CS Bremen): Endgame: W w. P.: 1150 => 370k* W: 585 => 728k TFSS: 1848 => 2312k WTFSS: 2998 => 2475k All the following comps where are final ones(so Wednesday evening – 24 hours later than EP IX numbers) Wend (wo Previews – only TFSS) Aladdin: 493 => 6560k John Wick 3: 967 => 3305k Godzilla: 328 => 4797k Rocketman: 175 => 7618k Dark Phoenix: 333 => 4174k MIBI: 221 => 5713k Five Feet Apart: 85 => 13932k Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 2363k TLK: 2755 => 3749k H&S: 1058 => 5209k Hollywood: 1774 => 2773k TS 4: 388 => 6883k Adjusted comps – without CS Bremen: TFSS: 8650 WTFSS: 12966 Comps: It 2: 1880 => 2715k (TFSS) Joker: 4819 => 1510k (TFSS) Joker w. P: 7040 => 1732k (WTFSS) Puh, what can I say? It doesn’t have Preview screenings, Endgame had really big ones. Presales would be out of this world insane for every other movie, but for SW they are okay, I guess. Right now, I’d hope for a 5-day opening above Endgame, but thinking it will open below and and probably just around Frozen II. And thinking that the 4-day might be below both. So maybe something like this: OD: 375k TFSS: 1250k WTFSS: 1625k (obviously hoping for something like this): OD: 400k TFSS: 1750k WTFSS: 2150k Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 9 519 4158 12,48% This movie completely confuses me, its Previews are over indexing at the Cinestar Bremen. Cinemax Bremen: 91 Cinestar Bremen: 205 Cinestar Frankfurt: 223 (TROS sold 3 times as much at CS F than CS B. And about a third more at CX B rather than less than half as much). I don't have my not posted comps right now. TFSS: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 43 394 21202 1,86% Spoiler CS Bremen: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 11 176 5731 3,07% CX Bremen: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 12 66 3664 1,80% CS Frankfurt (Metropolis): Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 20 152 11807 1,29% The following comps are T-0 Aladdin: 493 => 230k John Wick 3: 967 => 116k Godzilla: 328 => 168k Rocketman: 175 => 267k Dark Phoenix: 333 => 146k MIBI: 221 => 201k Five Feet Apart: 85 => 491k Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 83 TLK: 2755 => 132k H&S: 1058 => 183k Hollywood: 1774 => 98k TS 4: 388 => 242k I know the comps don't fit, but I would't expect it to blow up to much and if I'd had to assume I would assume an OWend (TFSS) of around 400k. I am thinking that the comps will increase quite nicely over the following days. Edited May 21, 2022 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) On 8/19/2019 at 11:04 AM, Taruseth said: 70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s. But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy. Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020? I think 1991 would be the first year. Well... that turned out true xD On 8/11/2019 at 10:53 PM, Taruseth said: I am back with counting: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 14thAugust 2019 2D: (T-3) 19:30: 56 / 572 -> 9.7% CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 14thAugust 2019 2D: (T-3): OV 19:15: 7 / 178 OV 20:00: 137 / 297 19:30: 142 / 342 22:30: 2 / 145 Total: 288 / 962 -> 29.9% CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 14thAugust 2019 2D: (T-3): OV 19:45: 407 / 624 (WOW, this is bloody insane) 19:30: 209 / 642 Total: 616 / 1266 -> 48.65% This movie will have insane previews thinking maybe even something like up to 60-80k possible but I honestly don’t know about the weekend. (T-3): Total: 960 Preview comps: Aladdin: 173 -> 130k John Wick: 326 -> 133k Okay, what the hell, this looks insane in previews but I think Frankfurt is probably just overperforming like crazy and that totally screws the picture. At the Cinestar Bremen it’s at a third of what Pokeman was at and that would suggest previews below 20k. Probably settling around 60-80k really is the best. No predictions for the weekend yet but I think this might have solid shot at winning the weekend. It 2: CineStar Bremen Preview on Wednesday 4hSeptember 2019 2D: (T-24): DF 20:00: 8 / 425 22:30: 0 / 572 OV 22:30: 1 / 425 Total: 9 / 1422 CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 14thAugust 2019 2D: (T-24): OV 22:45: 2 / 297 22:30: 6 / 342 Total: 8 / 639 CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 14thAugust 2019 2D: (T-24): DF 20:00: 12 / 642 DF OV 20:00: 13 / 624 22:30: 2 / 351 OV 22:30: 0 / 344 Total: 27 / 1961 (T-24) Total: 44 Comps: Far From Home: 110 -> 22.5k Yeah, nop, this won’t happen Previews for TG2 might be ending up around 60-80k Edited May 21, 2022 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 ^^^^ what's OW expectation? Good weather will play spoilsport but can it open to at least 400K. I am hopeful that it will have good legs considering the reviews. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted May 22, 2022 Author Share Posted May 22, 2022 Sunday updates from insidekino.de now have higher numbers for all releases; I guess weather conditions - still, far from a good weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) On 5/22/2022 at 2:02 AM, keysersoze123 said: ^^^^ what's OW expectation? Good weather will play spoilsport but can it open to at least 400K. I am hopeful that it will have good legs considering the reviews. With Previews it should get to 400k. Not yet sold on 400k without. I am not that certain about good legs - like they won't suck, most movies in Germany get a 3x and a lot get a 4x. Even DS3 should get a 3x from TFSS (needs 1915k for that). FB3 will end up with a 3.8. (Morbius got a 2.46x and that is utterly disastrous for Germany). To say anything more I first want to see how it is doing, if there is any uptick visible. So if its good it could do something like 400k (TFSS) and 1600k total (4x - would be slightly above average legs for the general genre - overall the legs would be slightly below average). Multipliers for the yearly top 10s (alway from the actual weekend TFSS) 2010-2021 Spoiler Regarding 2020 and 2021: Some of them had their legs killed by Corona, Kangaroo opened in March 2020 (and dropped 79% on tis second weekend and the weekend after wards pretty much cinemas closed). Tenet, Dune started on Wednesday Movie 2021 Top 10: JB: NTTD SM:NWH F&F9 Dune School of Magic Animals Paw Patrol Venom II Kaiserschmarn House of Gucci Croods 2020 TOP 10: Bad Boys for Life Tenet Nightlife Sonic I Knives Out 1917 After Truth Dr. Dolittle Jim Knopf Kangaroo Chronicles Total adm 6.037M 4.541M 1.968M 1.846M 1.718M 1.546M 1.169M 1.145M 1.142M 0.839M 1.820M 1.686M 1.414M 1.231M 1.215M 0.984M 0.949M 0.903M 0.825M 0.815M O Weekend 1.195M 0.815M 0.525M 0.341M 0.246M 0.283M 0.291M 0.220M 0.141M 0.144M 0.439M 0.319M 0.306M 0.363M 0.230M 0.171M 0.238M 0.250M 0.151M 0.321M Multiplier 5.05 5.57 3.75 5.41 6.98 5.46 4.02 5.20 8.10 5.83 4.15 5.29 4.62 3.39 5.28 5.75 3.99 3.61 5.46 2.54 2019 TOP 10: Frozen II 6.782M 1.430M 4.74 The Lion King 5.652M 0.922M 6.13 Geheimnis 5.321M 0.924M 5.76 TROS 5.249M 1.388M 3.78 Endgame 5.132M 1.672M 3.07 Joker 4.293M 0.841M 5.10 Jumanji II 2.567M 0.383M 6.70 Pets 2 2.516M 0.110M 12.71 HTTYD 3 2.269M 0.616M 3.69 Captain Marvel 2.080M 0.640M 3.25 Endgame, TLK, TROS started on Wednesday 2018 TOP 10: Bohemian Rhapsody 3.966M 0.398M 9.96 Fantastic Beasts 2 3.896M 0.995M 3.92 Junge 3.870M 0.543M 7.13 Infinity War 3.458M 1.075M 3.22 Fifty Shades 3 3.009M 0.725M 4.15 Hotel Transylvania 3 2.558M 0.355M 7.21 Jurassic World 2 2.404M 0.574M 4.19 Grinch 2.287M 0.333M 6.87 Deadpool 2 2.246M 0.661M 3.40 Mamma Mia 2 2.204M 0.343M 6.43 HT 3 started on Monday, the number is just the 4-Day Weekend, Thursday to Sunday 2017 TOP 10: Fack Ju Göhte 3 6.136M 1.726M 3.56 SW - TLJ 5.905M 1.627M 3.63 Despicable Me 3 4.65M 0.851M 5.46 Fifty Shades 2 3.457M 0.847M 4.08 B&tB 3.430M 0.864M 3.97 F&F 8 3.241M 1.145M 2.83 It 3.17M 0.937M 3.38 PotC 5 2.694M 0.577M 4.67 GotG 2 2.516M 0.75M 3.35 Bescheurte Herz 2.138M 0.159M 13.45 The last movie opened over Christmas Weekend (that means dead Sunday) 2016 TOP 10: Rogue One 3.994M 1.001M 3.99 Finding Dory 3.922M 0.876M 4.48 Pets 3.848M 0.706M 5.45 Zootopia 3.845M 0.69M 5.57 Willkommen 3.839M 0.469M 8.19 Fantastic Beasts 1 3.539M 0.827M 4.28 Ice Age 5 2.925M 0.443M 6.6 The Revenant 2.827M 0.38M 7.44 Deadpool 2.738M 0.714M 3.83 Sing 2.472M 0.385M 6.42 2015 TOP 10: SW - TFA 9.06M 2.139M 4.24 Fack Ju Göhte 2 7.734M 2.115M 3.66 Spectre 7.089M 1.681M 4.22 Minions 6.946M 0.935M 7.43 Fifty Shades 1 4.42M 1.353M 3.27 F&F 7 4.186M 1.334M 3.14 Jurassic World 4.148M 0.903M 4.59 Mockingjay 2 4.07M 1.143M 3.56 Inside Out 3.505M 0.642M 5.46 Er ist wieder da 2.485M 0.36M 6.9 2014 TOP 10: Honig im Kopf 7.275M 0.678M 10.73 Hobbit 3 6.066M 1.278M 4.75 Mockingjay 1: 4.008M 1.184M 3.39 Monsieur Claude 3.934M 0.155M 25.38 HTTYD 2 2.735M 0.484M 5.65 Transformers 4 2.508M 0.697M 3.60 Wolf of Wall Street 2.401M 0.512M 4.69 Vaterfreuden 2.368M 0.483M 4.90 Paddington 2.064M 0.278M 7.42 GotG 1.799M 0.463M 3.89 2013 Top 10: Fack Ju Göhte 7.412M 0.872M 8.5 Hobbit 2 6.098M 1.259M 4.84 Frozen 4.767M 0.572M 8.33 Django Unchained 4.499M 0.750M 6.00 Catching Fire 3.744M 1.079M 3.47 Despicable Me 2 3,668M 0.521M 7.04 Medicus 3.634M 0.714M 5.09 Hangover 3 3.104M 1.273M 2.44 Fast & Furious 6 2.874M 0.802M 3.58 Kokowääh 2 2.749M 0.515M 5.34 2012 TOP 10: Intouchables 9.160M 0.335M 27.34 Skyfall 7.826M 1.908M 4.10 Ice Age 4 6.700M 1.106M 6.06 Hobbit 1 6.689M 1.085M 6.16 Madagascar 3 3.973M 0.822M 4.83 Twilight 5 3.922M 1.267M 3.10 Ted 3.372M 0.710M 4.75 Dark Knight Rises 3.253M 0.857M 3.80 American Pie 4 2.521M 0.677M 3.72 Türkisch für Anfä. 2.393M 0.372M 6.43 2011 TOP 10: Deathly Hallows 2 6.469M 1.608M 4.02 Pirates 3 4.397M 1.331M 3.30 Kokowääh 4.317M 0.838M 5.15 Hangover 2 4.09M 1.033M 3.96 Twilight 4 3.752M 1.066M 3.52 Puss in Boots 3.195M 0.558M 5.73 The Smurfs 2.722M 0.545M 4.99 Transformers 3 2.574M 0.836M 3.08 Fast & Furious 5 2.461M 0.824M 2.99 The King’s Speech 2.427M 0.214M 11.34 2010 TOP 10: Deathly Hallow 1 5.836M 1.769M 3.30 Rapunzel 3.932M 0.572M 6.87 Twilight 3 3.862M 1.003M 3.85 Inception 3.426M 0.621M 5.52 Alice in Wonderland 2.968M 0.544M 5.46 Sex and the City 2 2.569M 0.596M 4.31 Despicable Me 2.508M 0.437M 5.74 Forever Shrek 2.437M 0.394M 6.19 Kindsköpfe 2.097M 0.549M 3.82 Sherlock Holmes 1.731M 0.416M 4.16 Explanations: As totals for the first run aren’t really available I added the open-air numbers for BR and Junge and the double Feature for IW as I think HP has double features in the total too but I don’t know to which extent. Interesting things: Out of 120! movies only 4 missed a 3x and that were Fast 5 with a 2.99x (0.824M opening and 2.461M total), Fast 8 with a 2.83x (1.145M opening and 3.241M total), Kangaroo due to corona with a 2.54x and Hangover 2 with a 2.44x (1.273M opening and 3.104M total). We don't talk about Hangover 2 legs. How often did a movie in the Yearly Top 10 miss a 4x: 2021: 1(only F&F9) 2020: 4 2019: 5 2018: 3 2017:6 2016: 2 (3.83x and 3.99x) 2015: 4 2014: 3 2013: 3 2012: 3 2011: 5 2010: 3 Meaning the big movies tend to have good legs. Out of a 120 movies 42 movies did (35% - so 65 % get a 4x). Worst Multis (Bottom 10): Hangover 3: 2.44x Kangaroo Chronicles: 2.54x (legs absolutely destroyed by Corona - without it it should have comfortable gotten a 5x or so) Fast 8: 2.83x Fast 5: 2.99x Endgame: 3.07x Transformers 3: 3.08x Twillight 5: 3.10x Fast 7: 3.14x Infinty War: 3.22x (Thinking 3.16x without Double Features) Fifty Shades 1: 3.27x Top Multis (Top 10): Intouchables: 27.34x (biggest movie in the last decade) Monsieur Claude: 25.38x Green Book: 13.96x Bescheurte Herz: 13.45x Pets 2: 11.48x The King’s Speech: 11.34x Honig Im Kopf: 10.73x Bohemian Rhapsody: 9.96x Fack Ju Göhte: 8.5x Frozen: 8.33x Best year for respective place: #1: 2012 (9.160M) #2: 2012 (7.826M) #3: 2015 (7.089M) #4: 2015 (6.946M) #5: 2015 (4.420M) #6: 2015 (4.186M) #7: 2015 (4.148M) #8: 2015 (4.070M) #9: 2015 (3.505M) #10: 2013 (2.749M) 2015 had a lot of strong movies which is reflected in this list, the top 2 for 2015 are only 100k behind the 2012 ones in #1 and #2. #3 and #4 in 2012 are 390k and 250k behind the 2015 ones. Based on this one can guess the best years are these year: #1: 2015 (139.2M) #2: 2012 (135.1M) #3: 2013 (129.7M) #4: 2011 (129.6M) How many movies about the respective milestone: 9M (3x Goldene Leinwand): 2021: 0 2020: 0 2019: 0 2018: 0 2017: 0 2016: 0 2015: 1 2014: 0 2013: 0 2012: 1 2011: 0 2010: 0 6M (2x Goldene Leinwand): 2021: 1 2020: 0 2019: 1 2018: 0 2017: 1 2016: 0 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 2 2012: 4 2011: 1 2010: 0 4M: 2021: 2 2020: 0 2019: 6 2018: 0 2017: 3 2016: 0 2015: 8 2014: 3 2013: 4 2012: 4 2011: 4 2010: 1 2012 had 4 movies above 6.68M but no movie between that and 4M. 3M (Goldene Leinwand): 2021:2 2020: 0 2019: 6 2018: 5 2017: 7 2016: 6 2015: 9 2014: 4 2013: 8 2012: 8 2011: 6 2010: 4 Edited June 5, 2022 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...