BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

First trend for Germany's first 2015 weekend:

#1: Honig im Kopf - 600k (-10%)

#2: Hobbit3 - 525k (and nr.1 in US$; -40%)

#3: close race between B&T2, NatM3 and Exodus with 175k each

Fury opens to also 175k (but including some previews)

[Poseidon]

How would that be mediocre for Fury? It's not even in 300 theaters, it's a pretty good start.

[IndustriousAngel]

How would that be mediocre for Fury? It's not even in 300 theaters, it's a pretty good start.

But that's no arthouse production with an expected expansion? Maybe it can add a few theaters next week but it won't get much better, in fact I'd be surprised if this gets a 4x multiplier.

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday trend looks better for many productions, especially top3:

#1: Honig im Kopf - 675k (FLAT - wow - no telling where this will stop atm but 4mil seems locked with this hold and 5mil possible)

#2: Hobbit3 - 575k (and nr.1 in US$; -30%, and still 100k in front of Hobbit2 at the same stage)

#3: B&T2 - 200k (up from opening weekend, sets sights to 1.5mil total)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Honig im Kopf	735.292	683	1.077	1.765.991	+8	2
2	The Hobbit 3	567.214	930	610	5.252.130	-33	4
3	Bibi & Tina 2	221.821	642	346	578.083	+17	2
4	Paddington	201.452	766	263	1.491.750	+8	5
5	Night at the Museum 3	190.731	608	314	853.938	-5	3
6	Exodus	166.713	516	323	512.895	-32	2
7	Fury	155.324	296	525	174.167	---	1
8	Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss	119.624	492	243	475.472	+34	3
9	Mockingjay 1	113.257	454	249	3.794.481	-9	7
10	Penguins from Madagascar	101.771	593	172	1.410.832	+10	6
11	The Theory of Everything	86.915	254	342	228.093	+9	2
12	Mucize - Wunder	49.373	51	968	49.373	---	1
13	Interstellar	31.382	173	181	1.632.863	+2	9
14	The Loft	29.571	107	276	146.965	+12	4
15	Eine Taube sitzt auf einem Zweig und denkt über das Leben nach	25.563	71	360	27.761	---	1
16	Kill the Boss 2	18.562	143	130	371.059	-16	6
17	Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu?	16.407	135	122	3.686.766	+11	24
18	Magic in the Moonlight (WB)	14.832	120	124	176.570	-8	5
19	Clouds of Sils Maria	12.563	54	233	55.929	+3	3
20	Alles ist Liebe	12.157	233	52	438.523	-62	5

 

Niiice weekend!

MJ1 has finally overtaken QecqoafaBD and is now nr.2 of 2014 again - both movies with a very nice drop or even increase! H3 dropped a lot harder but is still ahead of H2 at the same point in its run by more than 100k admissions (H2 had 5.136.391 this weekend, and a steeper drop too).

But the real story here is "Honig im Kopf" which increased with a slight expansion, it nearly held the PTA from its opening wekend. As long as it doesn't start to drop it's hard gauging the potential but as mentioned, I see it crossing 4mil total for sure and possible reaching towards 5mil, so the final 2014 should be: H3 - HiK - MJ1 - QecqoafaBD.

 

This week, Mo and Tue are strong weekdays thanks to Tue=holiday in most regions, but after that holidays are over and we're back to business as usual. But with Taken3, there's another hot release grabbing screens, if it's anywhere in the region of Taken2, it should open to about 400k admissions while Hobbit3 drops to #3 (HiK will stay on top I think). Let's be Cops targets the comedy demo which got a bit shortchanged through the holidays, so there's some potential here, too.

[Elessar]

What was AUJ's & DOS' 4th weekend like?

[Poseidon]

What was AUJ's & DOS' 4th weekend like?

http://www.insidekino.de/Y/DuellMittelerde.htm

[Elessar]

I know about the site but it has such a confusing layout. I think i can read that list, though.

[IndustriousAngel]

weekend 4 in Germany:

 

Hobbit1:
678.721 admissions / 5.423.080 total
Hobbit2:
619.322 admissions / 5.136.391 total
Hobbit3:
567.214 admissions / 5.252.130 total

 

remember that in 2013, Jan 6th was on Sunday, in 2014, on Monday - this year, it's Tuesday so there's 2 more strong weekdays for Hobbit3, but after that it's close if it can stay ahead of Hobbit2, weekend drops are steep (but were so for H2, too).

Edited January 6, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[Elessar]

Thanks. Next weekend is gonna be brutal...

[IndustriousAngel]

Thanks. Next weekend is gonna be brutal...

Well, yes, if Thursday is any indication we will have some brutal drops. But Taken3 is very strong ond doing major business on the few screens it is on.

A thought I had: There's only a few screens - and usually the biggest - which play HFR. So, the Hobbit playing in HFR does really keep competition from the biggest screens, even if they sell triple the tickets per show as Hobbit does. Just a thought ...

[IndustriousAngel]

First trend for Germany's weekend:

 

#1: Honig im Kopf - 600k admissions (-20%)

#2: Taken 3 - 400k (better than Taken 2)

#3: Hobbit 3 - 225k (-60%)

#4: Let's be Cops - 225k (surprise here even if there was as mentioned some potential for comedies after the holidays)

Edited January 9, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[Elessar]

percentage drop for Hobbit is wrong...

[IndustriousAngel]

percentage drop for Hobbit is wrong...

ty, edited

 

that's really a super opening for Taken 3, considering the few screens it's playing on (and those not the largest) - Hobbit3 is playing in double the theaters.

Edited January 9, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[Poseidon]

Still waiting for Hollywood to remake a Schweiger-Movie.

"Honig im Kopf" looks like a perfect choice.

[IndustriousAngel]

MarkG from insidekino shares some bitter thougts about the German market (valid arguments for the Austrian market, too):

http://www.blog.insidekino.de/?p=2171

 

Especially the fact that many blockbusters are now in 3D (and often the 2D shows are afternoon or smallscreens) makes the tickets so expensive, and while that keeps overall ticket revenue in € or $ nearly stable, admissions show a more or less steady decline.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Honig im Kopf	583.902	742	787	2.641.640	-21	3
2	Taken 3	389.224	443	879	423.449	-	1
3	The Hobbit 3	232.053	727	319	5.664.540	-59	5
4	Let's Be Cops	206.588	359	575	226.966	-	1
5	Bibi & Tina 2	137.697	664	207	808.844	-38	3
6	Paddington	105.962	725	146	1.674.861	-47	6
7	Night at the Museum 3	78.143	583	134	1.000.940	-59	4
8	Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss	68.997	525	131	586.550	-42	4
9	Exodus	65.430	542	121	631.785	-61	3
10	Fury	62.877	344	183	283.926	-60	2
11	Penguins from Madagascar	59.318	520	114	1.512.591	-42	7
12	The Theory of Everything	52.965	260	204	316.135	-39	3
13	The Best of Me	48.171	214	225	72.135	-	1
14	Mucize - Wunder	45.737	63	726	117.479	-7	2
15	Mockingjay 1	43.276	357	121	3.877.064	-62	8
16	Relatos salvajes	31.546	91	347	54.984	-	1
17	St. Vincent	28.824	163	177	34.034	-	1
18	Eine Taube sitzt auf einem Zweig ...	17.637	72	245	56.796	-31	2
19	Interstellar	13.560	137	99	1.656.651	-57	10
20	The Loft	12.144	113	107	167.415	-59	5

 

That's a terrific hold for "Honig im Kopf", very nice! Also strong openings from "Taken3" and "Let's Be Cops".

Family stuff dropped hard after the holidays but B&T2 ist still on track to overtake part 1 and Paddington's nearly 2mil admissions are a nice surprise.

Hobbit3 dropped even harder, but it dropped less than H2 last year on the same weekend and had better weekdays, so it's still about 140k admissions ahead (H2 had 5.525.265 admissions after weekend 5) and 6mil should be no problem.

 

Sad news: "Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu?" has dropped out of the Top20, but it has crossed 3,7mil admissions. Fantastic run and atm still nr.3 for 2014!

 

Next weekend: A lot of openers coming, but not a single one (I think) with breakout potential. "Annie" and "Unbroken" seem too tailored on the US market to catch much interest, stage adaption "Frau Müller muss weg" doesn't seem to generate much interest either, and the family stuff - well, if you release family-stuff mid-january, you obviously don't have any expectations. Some interesting but smaller releases like "Wild", "The Gambler" or danish thriller "Fasandræberne" will end outside the Top5 but might make it into the Top10 thanks to overall very low admissions, good choice to release this stuff now.

[IndustriousAngel]

Still waiting for Hollywood to remake a Schweiger-Movie.

"Honig im Kopf" looks like a perfect choice.

Just saw the film; it's really a 9/10, surprisingly good for the difficult theme - you can discuss Schweiger's acting abilities all you want but as a director, this is as fine a release in his portfolio as any director could wish for. It's fantastic that this will be Germany's nr.2 for 2014 in the end, and I wouldn't even rule out nr.1 - I see it doing more than 5mil but atm it's not yet really dropping so hard to say how far it can go over.

 

But I don't see the remake possiblities. If Hollywood remakes this, they would go for a PG13 and that's just not possible without losing some of the raw power at play here.

[IndustriousAngel]

Going by Thursday numbers and presells, the Top3 will stay the same from last weekend, as expected. "Honig im Kopf" with a super drop again it seems ...

[IndustriousAngel]

First trend for Germany's weekend is in and as suspected HiK is extremely strong again!

 

#1: HiK - 600k (+5%)

#2: T3 - 200k (-50%)

#3: LbC - 125k (-40%)

#4: H3 - 110k (-55%)

 

no opener over 100k

 

With this kind of hold (in face of harsh drops from everything else) HiK might well become 2014's #1 in Germany, overtaking Hobbit3. It will already be near 3,5mil admissions after the weekend and still no sign of slowing down!

Edited January 16, 2015 by IndustriousAngel