BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[miketheavenger]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

So what are everybody's predictions for the top hits of 2017? Will SW8 be without a doubt the #1 film? Is BatB the first Disney life-action remake to really break out? Can Pirates 5 stop the downward spiral of oblivion?

I think SW8 should rather easily win the year. It'll probably drop between 20-25% in admissions I would say. Not feeling BatB to be that big of a monster. It might beat TJB, but at the moment I can't see 3m+. Pirates 5 should be huge here, but it'll still be lucky to reach the fourth one's numbers. Don't count out Despicable Me 3 though. Minions had nearly 7m admissions and while DM3 will probably drop from that, it should still be massive.

Edited January 18, 2017 by miketheavenger

[IndustriousAngel]

My bet would be on SW8, too, but in Germany and Austria, you really never have a safe bet which release becomes "the" must-see-movie of the year (2016 we had none at all). What's a given is that this year's top blockbusters will get a lot more admissions than 2016's.

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates:

New Releases:

xXx3: 33k (starts in 541 theaters; mediocre reviews around 4-7/10; the first one had 711.673 admissions on its release weekend and started in 937(!) theaters, the second one with Ice Cube only 142.039 in over 500 theaters) – if this number holds it will stay above the second but far under the first XXX-movie
Ritter Rost 2 – Das Schrottkomplott: ?k (446, good reviews)
Collateral Beauty: 5k (245, very mixed reviews between 2 and 7/10)
Manchester by the Sea: 2k (91, some mediocre but mostly very good reviews)
Personal Shopper: ?k (?, good or very good reviews)

Holdovers:

Passengers: 13k (22.5k)
The Great Wall: 9.5k (21.5k)
La La Land: 14k (19k)
Rogue One: 10.5k (15k)
Plötzlich Papa: 9.5k (14k)
Why Him: 5k (14k)
A Streetcat Named Bob: 3k (5.5k)

So an ok start into the weekend for the holdovers but (not so surprising) a pretty disappointing Thursday for the new releases.

[IndustriousAngel]

I'm a little surprised La La Land is below last thursday ... with the expansion it should stay at least flat for the weekend

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates for the weekend from insidekino.de:

 

#1: xXx  - 240k admissions (meh)

#2: LLL - 160k (+15%, good)

#3: Passengers - 140k (-40%)

#4: Dtc - 125k (-15%, won't become a sleeper hit it seems)

#5: GreatWall - 100k (-40%)

 

Collateral Beauty seems to open with 70k.

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals:

xXx3: 30k
La La Land 22k - so much better than estimated which surprises me because all other reports said the same but the expansion of course helps
Passengers: 15k
The Great Wall: 12k
Plötzlich Papa: 12k
CB: 8k
Manchester: 4.5k

So holdovers and both Beauty and Manchester improved a little bit from estimates. Manchester should reach at least what was projected: 35k OW.

Edited January 20, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

estimates went up a bit:

#1: xXx  - 250k admissions (still meh)

#2: LLL - 165k (+20%, good)

#3: Passengers - 140k (-40%)

#4: Dtc - 125k (-15%)

#5/6: GreatWall / Moana with 100k (-40% / -30%)

#7:  Why Him - 95k (-30%)

#8/9: R1 / Sing  with 70k (-50% / -25%)

#10: CB - 65k (incl. previews)

 

The weekend wouldn't be half bad if the openers were just a bit better

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates went down for the top2, Passengers and Dtc a bit up.

[Aristis]

I thought a bit about the year and made a list about the (maybe) biggest movies 2017:

 

Probable 2M+:

 

(The 3rd column is my forecast, in the 5th there are comparable movies)

 

1	SW VIII	7		9M (SW VII)
2	Despicable Me 3	5,5		3,7M (DM2), 6,9M (Minions)
3	Pirates 5	4		4,4M (Pirates 4)
4	Bullyparade	4
5	The Beauty and the Beast	3,5		5,2M (Beauty and the Beast 1991)
6	FsoG 2	3,5		4,4M (FsoG1)
7	F&F 8	3		4,2M (F&F7)
8	Lego Batman	3		1,3M (Lego Movie)
9	Bibi & Tina 4	2,5		2M (B&T3)
10	Guardians of the Galaxy	2,5		1,8M (GotG1)
11	Transformers 5	2,2		2,5M (TF4)
12	Smurfs 3	2		2,7M/2,5M (Smurfs 1&2)
13	Justice League	2		1,5M (BvS)

 

I read somewhere that Fack ju Göhte 3 could start this year. If that happens it would at least number 2 (6M to 7M admissions) or maybe even 1.

 

Bullyparade is a tough one... With Der Schuh des Manitu and (T)Raumschiff Surprise (11,7M/9,2M) Bully had huge movies in the past  but his recent movies failed... The Beauty and the Beast is hard too. Recent WDAS-Movies didn't do huge numbers (Jungle Book 1,9M, Cinderella 1,1M, Maleficant 1,5M) so I don't really know about this...

 

Possible 2M+:

 

Baywatch
Wonder Woman			1,6M (Suicide Squad)	Not that probable...
World War Z 2			1,4M (WWZ 1)	Not that probable...
Spider Man			1,5M/1,1M (Amazing Spiderman 1&2), 3,2M (Spider Man 3)
Planet of the Apes			1,1M/1,3M (Apes 1&2)	Not that probable...
Cars 3			2,2M/1,8M (Cars 1&2)
Coco

 

As for Baywatch, stupid Comedy often does good here, the first Bad Neighbours had 1,7M admissions. It could really surprise.

 

The first Spiderman is the biggest Comic-Movie with 5,2M. But I don't think this will do that good, maybe a little bit better than Amazing Spiderman.

 

Source: Numbers according to InsideKino.

[IndustriousAngel]

Good list ! I doubt Lego Batman will do that much better than The Lego Movie ... but we can hope! And I fear a steeper decline for Pirates.

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Good list ! I doubt Lego Batman will do that much better than The Lego Movie ... but we can hope! And I fear a steeper decline for Pirates.

Some is maybe more wish than forecast 2M would probably already be a success for Lego Batman.

[George Parr]

Weekend estimates (some slight differences between main site and boards):

 

1. xXx: 235k (220k without previews)

2. Passengers 150k

3. La La Land 150k

4. Plötzlich Papa 130k/ 132.5k

5. Vaiana 115k

6. The Great Wall 105k

7. Why Him? 90k / 92.5k

8. Sing 72.5k

9. Rogue One 70k

10. Collateral Beauty 60k

 

Rogue One has topped 3.8m and passed Finding Dory for 3rd place of 2016. Should get to number one by next weekend. Though with a whole bunch of new movie it might not reach 4m.

 

Vier gegen die Bank made it past 1m, adding another movie above the 1m mark for 2016.

Edited January 23, 2017 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	xXx 3	219.409	541	406	236.662	2.676.948	-	1
2	Passengers	151.068	634	238	952.349	9.780.406	-33	3
3	La La Land	150.724	243	620	373.683	3.292.492	+9	2
4	Demain tout commence	131.942	462	286	562.240	4.676.517	-12	3
5	Moana	115.294	684	169	1.594.711	12.457.854	-21	5
6	The Great Wall	104.709	495	212	319.576	3.560.355	-39	2
7	Why Him?	91.447	378	242	286.784	2.312.708	-34	2
8	Sing	72.397	662	109	2.179.053	17.336.432	-25	7
9	Rogue One	70.822	426	166	3.806.654	42.793.366	-48	6
10	Collateral Beauty	59.069	245	241	66.734	578.854	-	1
11	Ballerina	47.498	393	121	114.438	802.547	-10	2
12	A Streetcat Named Bob	44.968	251	179	125.559	999.632	-7	2
13	Vier gegen die Bank	44.314	490	90	1.053.449	8.553.094	-49	5
14	Feuerwehrmann Sam - Außerirdische	43.148	467	92	164.381	1.033.027	-11	3
15	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	37.625	423	89	3.433.282	27.665.452	-33	12
16	Manchester by the Sea	32.848	91	361	38.181	323.568	-	1
17	Assassin's Creed	27.866	419	67	926.861	9.776.351	-62	4
18	Ritter Rost 2	27.017	446	61	32.473	218.089	-	1
19	Fantastic Beasts	18.971	207	92	3.409.194	33.839.819	-45	10
20	Die Blumen von Gestern	18.809	88	214	61.368	485.785	-28	2

 

A rather mediocre weekend, pulled down by bad openers. Holdovers were not that bad - LaLaLand increased (a bit less than I hoped) and some other releases had very good holds.

 

Next weekend: Overall admissions should go up quite a bit since there's a lot of new releases for many different demos: Split (might win the weekend, MNS has still a good name), Resident Evil 6 (might win the weekend, no blockbuster but a determined fanbase), Monster Trucks (really don't know what I would predict here), domestic girl/horse movie Wendy (looking at the Ostwind movies, I can see that opening to >100k but frankly I don't know anything about the material), domestic romcom Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben which might also open to >100k admissions, domestic spy comedy Botschafter des Friedens (will probably open lower but might catch on later), plus Oscar contenders Jackie and Hacksaw Ridge - espacially Jackie should achieve a really good PTA in ist few theaters and might expand later on. With that many new releases, I fear holdovers are in for mostly steep drops.

[IndustriousAngel]

Split seems to lead the weekend by a margin, RE6 not that close (and will probably decline the longer the weekend lasts, typical frontloader)

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates (source insidekino.de/forum):

New Releases (again way too crowded, in fact so crowded that some cinema chains deferred the release dates e.g. for Hacksaw Ridge):

Wendy: ?k (starts in 531 theaters, mediocre reviews)
Resi Evil 6: 22.5k (450, mixed reviews)
Split: 43k (400, good reviews) – a very good start, will win the weekend easily
Mein Blind Date mit dem Leben: 10.5k (332, very ok reviews)
Monster Trucks: ?k (280, pretty bad reviews, at some theaters it gets only shows in the daytime) - was only mentioned on time and had around the half of HR and Kundschafter des Friedens
Kundschafter des Friedens: 2.5k (155, good reviews)
Hacksaw Ridge: 2.5k (I'm sorry that I can't bring better news but it starts in only 110 theaters, so even worse than I feared. Sad. HR overall gets more good reviews than bad ones but everything is represented from 1/10 to 9/10, WOM so far is good)
Jackie: ?k (only ca. 50, very good reviews)

Holdovers:

xXx3: 11.5k (last Thursday 30k) – not a good hold
La La Land: 15k (22k) – maybe again underestimated
Passengers: 8.5k (15k)
The Great Wall: 7.5k (12k)
Plötzlich Papa: 7.5k (12k)
Collateral Beauty: 4k (8k) – was also underestimated last week
Manchester by the Sea: 3k (4.5k)
Why Him: 3k (?k)

Edited January 26, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Wendy might surprise, being aimed at young girls it is more or less critic-proof ...

[Giesi]

Fack Ju Göhte 3 was just confirmed for 26th of October, the same date like Thor 3. This year is going to be massive!

[IndustriousAngel]

Sure a great lineup of possible blockbusters, I'd be very disappointed if admissions didn't go up by at least 5%, better 10%!

[Giesi]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Sure a great lineup of possible blockbusters, I'd be very disappointed if admissions didn't go up by at least 5%, better 10%!

Do you think we can top 2015?

[George Parr]

That news definately makes the battle for no.1 (in terms of admissions) quite a bit more interesting.

 

At this point I'd think that FjG3 will take that spot. Provided it doesn't see a significant drop as well. The second one rose a bit from the first. I'm not sure if that can be repeated, but even if it would drop to the 6-7m range, that should be roughly were Star Wars is heading as well.