BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Finals a little better, again - SW8 465k, DbH 310, Jum 300

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Star Wars 8	466.560	728	641	5.210.603	61.542.154	-45	4
2	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	307.357	651	472	1.210.995	10.075.351	-3	3
3	Jumanji	298.980	561	533	1.272.797	12.302.900	-5	3
4	Insidious 4	183.391	311	590	183.391	1.659.938	-	1
5	The Greatest Showman	174.298	489	356	208.490	1.824.243	-	1
6	Pitch Perfect 3	158.245	506	313	794.280	6.547.809	-22	3
7	Ferdinand	148.921	699	213	697.615	4.982.340	-3	4
8	Coco	136.287	627	217	1.066.797	8.247.097	-2	6
9	Paddington	81.225	648	125	1.088.368	7.371.961	-18	7
10	Murder on the Orient Express	55.140	306	153	1.396.918	12.247.097	-22	9
11	Loving Vincent	43.315	125	347	105.648	837.959	+33	2
12	The Leisure Seeker	38.793	115	337	44.586	354.815	-	1
13	Fack Ju Göhte 3	27.332	303	90	6.028.499	52.530.989	-38	11
14	Aus dem Nichts	23.309	183	127	334.079	2.777.584	+13	7
15	Burg Schreckenstein 2	22.013	285	77	124.502	789.708	+16	5
16	Ayla	15.984	65	246	160.541	1.474.272	-17	5
17	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	15.614	83	188	51.955	397.617	+5	2
18	Otez-moi d'un doute	12.030	88	137	50.847	403.204	-10	3
19	Laible und Frisch - Da goht dr Doig	10.493	50	210	33.622	253.772	-16	2
20	The Mountain Between Us	10.097	134	75	143.294	1.205.991	-42	5

 

Overall, a fine weekend (in Austria it was even better!). Insidious 4 was much stronger than could be hoped, even with no competition, and The Greatest Showman had an ok opening after very poor previews. Many holdovers had excellent holds or even increases, that makes the 45% drop for Star Wars Ep.8 look rather sad - doesn't look good for the after holiday legs and in fact the 2017 crown seems not so safe any longer!

Next weekend: The biggest opener will be Liam Neeson starrer The Commuter. While not part of a franchise those Actioners always seem to find their audience, but it will probably be too little for the Top3 (of course, I'll be happy if proven wrong!) - but #4 should be possible. Steep drops from holdovers after this weekend's near-flat numbers are to be expected.

[IndustriousAngel]

... and by now Autria's 2017 numbers are complete, and as feared we had one of the lowest number of admissions in recent years - 3% behind 2016, 11% behind 2015. Only 2014 was worse. This in a year that should have been rather blockbustery, at least on paper - bah ... at least 2018 started with a good weekend so let's hope for a better year!

[Aristis]

I just had a look at the 2018-Releases and this year looks awful

There are 8 movies I think can really reach 2M.

 

FSOG3: The previous one had 4,41M and 3,45M admissions each. This one should reach 3M again, maybe it can reach the 2nd one... 3,5M

Solo: RO had 3,99M, I can't think of a SW-Movie don't reaching 3M admissions. I hope I have not to change that with this one... 3M

JW2: The first one had 4,14M with a good multipler above 4x. 3M

FB2: The first Fantastic Beasts had 3,48M admissions. This should get there too... 3M

Avengers3: After 2,25M and 2,42M this one should get a bit higher with the help of the Guardians 2,5M

Incredibles: The first had 3,5M admissions but that's long ago. I'm not really sure about this one... Monsters University didn't do very well after 11 years (1,4M to 3,3M). 2M

Peter Rabbit: I don't know why but this could do well... 2M

Jim Knopf: That is totally unpredictable to me. I say 2M but it could do much more or much less...

 

10 years ago Mamma Mia had 4,3M admissions, this one will probably fail to hit 2M (while I hope it can do well).

There will be surprises and there have to be such...

[Brainbug]

This year will also be hit hard by The World Cup and the Olympics.

[Aristis]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This year will also be hit hard by The World Cup and the Olympics.

Oh, as a Non-Fan I forgot that one... Can 2016 be challenged?

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Oh, as a Non-Fan I forgot that one... Can 2016 be challenged?

 

Possible, especially since the german team has a good shot at winning the cup again (im conflicted since im a big football fan but an even bigger movie fan )

[Taruseth]

35 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I just had a look at the 2018-Releases and this year looks awful

There are 8 movies I think can really reach 2M.

 

FSOG3: The previous one had 4,41M and 3,45M admissions each. This one should reach 3M again, maybe it can reach the 2nd one... 3,5M

Solo: RO had 3,99M, I can't think of a SW-Movie don't reaching 3M admissions. I hope I have not to change that with this one... 3M

JW2: The first one had 4,14M with a good multipler above 4x. 3M

FB2: The first Fantastic Beasts had 3,48M admissions. This should get there too... 3M

Avengers3: After 2,25M and 2,42M this one should get a bit higher with the help of the Guardians 2,5M

Incredibles: The first had 3,5M admissions but that's long ago. I'm not really sure about this one... Monsters University didn't do very well after 11 years (1,4M to 3,3M). 2M

Peter Rabbit: I don't know why but this could do well... 2M

Jim Knopf: That is totally unpredictable to me. I say 2M but it could do much more or much less...

 

10 years ago Mamma Mia had 4,3M admissions, this one will probably fail to hit 2M (while I hope it can do well).

There will be surprises and there have to be such...

That looks awful

 

4 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Oh, as a Non-Fan I forgot that one... Can 2016 be challenged?

Challenged for what.

 

After 2015 being a good year, 2016 was horrible and 2017 is (based on the 52 weekends Top 10 on par and based on the fact that 2016 had 53 in a way, 2017 is behind) 

I think in total 2017 won't be ahead by much compared to 2016 if ahead ot all.

 

And I think 2018 looks worse.

No SW to safe the end of the year.

No Fack You Goehte (at least many people watch that movie)

And the rest also looks underwhelming.

I hope 2019 will be better (at least there are going to be Frozen 2 and SW 9 in Dezember)

[IndustriousAngel]

11 hours ago, Aristis said:

There will be surprises and there have to be such...

I sincerely hope so.

[IndustriousAngel]

whew, I hope that's not a general trend but at my theater, Star Wars is dopping really hard, strongest movie (which still isn't saying much) this evening is Commuter. Wonder Wheel is selling more seats than Star Wars

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

whew, I hope that's not a general trend but at my theater, Star Wars is dopping really hard, strongest movie (which still isn't saying much) this evening is Commuter. Wonder Wheel is selling more seats than Star Wars

 

I hope so. For what its worth, it still sells really good at my theater, clear Number 1 for the weekend.

[Taruseth]

On 5.1.2018 at 10:56 AM, el sid said:

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

The Greatest Showman: 35k
Insidious 4: 42k
The Leisure Seeker: 6k

The holdovers:

SW8: 105k
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 65k
Jumanji: 59k (much better than estimated yesterday, definitely a walk up film)
Pitch Perfect 3: 38k

 

Some Thursday estimates (source Insidekino):

 

New Releases:

The Commuter: 21K

Wonder Wheel: 3K

 

Holdovers:

SW: TLJ: 27K (-74%)

Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 18K (-72%) I think actuals will increase.

The Greatest Showman: 14K 

Pitch Perfect 3: 10K (-74%)

Jumanji: 9K (-85%) I think actuals will be double. 

Insidious: 7.5K (-82%)

Aus dem Nichts 7K!

The Leisure Seeker: 2.3K (-62%)

Loving Vincent: 1.7K

 

 

Based on this I would say either SW (I really hope it will, would be the fifth weekend and that alone means it most likely won't) or Dieses bescheuerte Herz will win the weekend. 

I doubt Jumanji will win.

And with those estimates I think the Commuter won't win, normally New Releases have a bit worse internal multiplier.

[el sid]

Since I'm too late I can only add that:

The Commuter is released in 449 theaters – so a pretty big start, overall ok reviews, lots of 5-7/10, but IMO with really good reviews which I hoped for this film could have had a much broader audience) – 21k would ca. be in line with expectations of 200k admissions OW.
Wonder Wheel starts in 128 theater with very mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10.
Your Name (a Japanese super-blockbuster, 140 theaters but not with constant showtimes, very good reviews) wasn't mentioned in the estimates but had nice admission numbers where it had showtimes today according to other reports.

The drops look harsh but please remember that last week most states had school holidays and several firms had company-holidays, so big drops are normal.

@Taruseth You're probably right, maybe The Commuter has also a little chance but I doubt it. And the 9k for Jumanji are indeed forgettable. I also think the actuals will be (as always) much higher.

Edited January 11, 2018 by el sid

[el sid]

The first trend from insidekino.de looks like that:

#1 SW 8 220k
#2 The Commuter 190k
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 185k
#4 Jumanji 125k
#5 The Greatest Showman 110k
...
Aus dem Nichts 45k
Your Name had a very good Thursday with 20k admissions 

And some Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film):

SW 8: 22.5k
The Commuter: 22.1k
Your Name: 20k (unfortunately only a two day event with showtimes only Thursday and Sunday)
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 18.5k
Jumanji: 12.5k (indeed higher that the estimates but not as much as I thought)
Wonder Wheel: 2.750 -> 22.5k OW projected so far
Tad Stones: 1.1k -> 17.5k OW projected so far, both underperforming
 

Edited January 12, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

That would be a 53% dop for SW8, 40% for DbH and 59% for Jumanji ... that drop for Jumanji seems awfully steep even for a family release after holidays. Very good for Commuter (though that number contains probably around 30k of previews, so actual weekend around 160k)

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

That would be a 53% dop for SW8, 40% for DbH and 59% for Jumanji ... that drop for Jumanji seems awfully steep even for a family release after holidays. Very good for Commuter (though that number contains probably around 30k of previews, so actual weekend around 160k)

Especially if SW8 and DbH both drop less.

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday estimates from insidekino:

#1: SW8 - 200k (-57%,  ouch)

#2: DbH - 195k (-37%, might become a close race for #1)

#3: Commuter - 210k incl. previews

#4: Jumanji - 140k (-53%)

#5: Showman - 110k (-37%)

#6: Insidious4 - 90k (-51%)

[IndustriousAngel]

Final trend and at least Jumanji is shown with a decent drop ... way underestimated like last weekend:

#1: SW8 - 200k (-57%)

#2: DbH - 195k (-37%)

#3: Commuter - 220k incl. previews (better with each estimate)

#4: Jumanji - 165k (-45%)

[Giesi]

SW8 under FJG3 confirmed, I guess. What is wrong with my country? A borefest like Spectre can get to 7M admissions while TLJ is struggling to reach 6M. 

[IndustriousAngel]

Actually, I thought TLJ rather weak ... my ladyfriend compared it to Hobbit3. My son wasn't convinced either.