BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

well, the first estimates did seem too good to be true - still a satisfying weekend, in my opinion!

[IndustriousAngel]

Monday numbers - 50SoG3 now at 905k incl. Wed; that's about a 10% drop from the 2nd one but a good number. Die kleine Hexe with 205k, that's a>20% drop but also a good number (about what most people thought it would do OW). Wonder has about the same drop, excellent! MazeRunner3 drops >30%.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	725.963	731	993	906.252	8.608.123	-	1
2	Die kleine Hexe	204.852	687	298	601.396	4.028.931	-23	2
3	Wonder	130.372	543	240	623.220	5.059.460	-23	3
4	Maze Runner 3	124.033	535	232	359.954	3.873.133	-33	2
5	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	74.731	635	118	543.341	3.561.919	-28	4
6	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	74.076	280	265	354.872	2.831.038	-14	3
7	Den of Thieves	51.795	330	157	154.235	1.410.720	-32	2
8	Jumanji	49.122	408	120	1.874.913	18.013.881	-22	8
9	Le Sens de la fête	43.968	195	225	146.054	1.169.299	-20	2
10	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	39.236	533	74	1.931.742	15.959.820	-40	8
11	The Darkest Hour	37.249	199	187	268.862	2.355.323	-19	4
12	Phantom Thread	29.557	96	308	84.652	724.662	-14	2
13	Hot Dog	29.069	443	66	447.186	3.768.148	-59	4
14	Ferdinand	28.259	493	57	974.428	6.854.768	-21	9
15	The Commuter	24.828	319	78	590.191	5.137.757	-46	5
16	Star Wars 8	23.796	274	87	5.856.717	69.031.667	-43	9
17	The Greatest Showman	22.673	251	90	648.977	5.559.045	-41	6
18	Wind River	20.981	86	244	45.985	305.655	-	1
19	Coco	18.724	367	51	1.282.777	9.767.996	-27	11
20	MET: L'Elisir D'Amore	18.135	199	91	18.135	528.029	-	1

A good weekend - a strong opener and good holds, and thanks to Valentine's day and school holidays, there should be good weekdays, too! But 3mil total will be hard for the 3rd 50SoG outing - still, what a success story! The biggest disappointment on the chart is Hot Dog which dropped hard again and is crawling towards a 500k total - really bad for such a  star-powered production.

Next weekend: Another potential bestseller - Black Panther is hard to gauge; the comics are nearly unknown here, but Marvel has managed to build a very reliable fan base for its MCU movies, so I can see this doing similar numbers to Doctor Strange - 1,5mil total and an opening in the 400-500k range; maybe #1 for the weekend! Another interesting opener: The Shape of Water - while no bestseller, awards season has seen some very favourable numbers for the corresponding movies. 500k total seem like a sensible goal.

                

[Aristis]

And there are the yearly actuals for 2017:

 

122,3M admissions, the third worst in more than 20 years (only 2014 (121,7M) and 2016 (121,1M) were worse). So at least 1% better than 2016.

€1.056M is the second best of all time behind 2015 though.

TP is at 8,63€ (10,70$), up 2,1% from last year.

 

I hope this year can be better...

 

http://www.ffa.de/

[George Parr]

I don't see much chance for that. This year doesn't have a really huge blockbuster unless a surprise hit comes around. It also has to deal with another World Cup during the summer. I don't see much chance to replace the lack of high-end movies through a larger number of smaller ones either.

[IndustriousAngel]

12 hours ago, George Parr said:

I don't see much chance for that. This year doesn't have a really huge blockbuster unless a surprise hit comes around. It also has to deal with another World Cup during the summer. I don't see much chance to replace the lack of high-end movies through a larger number of smaller ones either.

I'm afraid I have to agree ... and as mentioned, Austria is even worse off this year; nearly no relief by way of domestic releases (I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Hader's "Arthur und Claire" which opens this weekend, but the somber theme will probably keep this from becoming a hit).

[IndustriousAngel]

Opening day for BlackPanther - in my theater it's selling double the seats of 50SoG3 (which is dropping hard) - don't know if it's representative but BP might actually win the weekend, nice!

[George Parr]

Judging by the comments on the insidekino forum, some areas seem to have Black Panther ahead, others are apparently very close. Who knows how that will play out over the weekend.

[el sid]

And unfortunately we get no estimates today. But as George Parr said it seems to be a pretty close race between Fifty Shades 3 and Black Panther with BP slightly in front. Fifty Shades 1 droped only 29% on its second German weekend, Fifty Shades Darker droped 43% (but that was each the whole weekend not only Thursday). In the South-West report Fifty Shades Freed lost a bit more than 50% compared to last Thursday where it had 135k admissions. So to be neck and neck or probably better isn`t bad I think but the insidekino.de prediction for BP was "only" ca. 350k OW, so to be on the safe side better don`t expect wonders. BP is released in 563 theaters and reviews are mostly very good.

Shape of Water and All the Money in the World seem to do quite well today, of course on a lower level with only 176 and 251 copies (and also very good reviews including some 10/10 for Shape of Water).

Edited February 15, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

´First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

 

#1: 50SoG 3 - 575k (-20% - hey)

#2: BP - 400k incl. previews - better than Dr Strange!

#3: Hexe - 250k (up a lot, wow - 2mil here we come!)

 

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Black Panther: 75k/1.023M US$ (released in 563 theater)
The Shape of Water: 9k (176 theaters) → 82.5k OW predicted in the first trend
All the Money in the World: 5k (251) → 40k OW
Father Figures: ?k (207, very modest reviews) → 30k OW

The holdovers (very nice numbers):

Fifty Shades Freed: 90k (actuals last Thursday 135k)
Die kleine Hexe: 36k (27.1k)
Wonder: 16k (17k) → 110k OW predicted
Maze Runner 3: 10.5k (14k)

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up, only Wonder is down a bit among the movies listed in the first trend.

 

#1 FSoG3 575k

#2 Black Panther 400k

#3 Die kleine Hexe 250k

#4 Wonder 100k

#5 HihmEg 90k

#6 Shape of Water 82.5k

#7 Maze Runner 75k

#8 Three Billboards 50k

#9 All the Money in the World  40k

#10 Ferdinand 32.5k

 

Pitch Perfect 3 has topped 1m, and Ferdinand will follow this weekend as well, putting the total of 1m+ movies for 2017 at 32. One more than 2016, one less than 2015.

[Valonqar]

On 2/16/2018 at 4:12 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

´First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

 

#1: 50SoG 3 - 575k (-20% - hey)

#2: BP - 400k incl. previews - better than Dr Strange!

#3: Hexe - 250k (up a lot, wow - 2mil here we come!)

 

Nothing warms my heart more. 

[iluvjuanki]

Because of the Berlinale, I find it very difficult to find a screening of Black Panther in english in Berlin. I wanted to see today but the only 2 screenings are at 10PM. I never had this problem before to see a blockbuster movie.

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates very stable for 50SoG and BP; Hexe down to 220 but that's still an increase from weekend 2. EXCELLENT!

 

Shape of Water is at 90k now, increases from prior estimates - a good sign even if I was hoping for higher numbers.

Edited February 18, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[Aristis]

Monday numbers:

 

FSOG3 570k -21%/-37%

BP 415k Just great...

Kleine Hexe 215k +5%

Wonder 105k -19%

Maze Runner 80k -35%

Shape of Water 92,5k (probably around 70k weekend)

HihmEg 75k +0%

Three Billboards 52,5k -29%

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	572.767	733	781	1.929.205	17.790.950	-21	2
2	Black Panther	415.434	563	738	415.434	4.713.297	-	1
3	Die kleine Hexe	217.776	726	300	925.838	6.128.108	+6	3
4	Wonder	107.170	590	182	801.338	6.425.020	-18	4
5	Maze Runner 3	81.189	536	151	500.625	5.286.433	-35	3
6	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	73.027	619	118	662.569	4.304.660	-2	5
7	The Shape of Water	71.104	176	404	99.964	793.535	-	1
8	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	53.496	309	173	441.915	3.540.969	-28	4
9	All the Money in the World	43.401	251	173	44.424	415.047	-	1
10	Le sens de la fête	32.574	213	153	200.052	1.606.300	-26	3
11	Jumanji	31.012	345	90	1.929.863	18.497.863	-37	9
12	Ferdinand	29.226	408	72	1.016.721	7.126.271	+3	10
13	Den of Thieves	27.483	321	86	200.290	1.817.214	-47	3
14	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	24.080	366	66	1.978.844	16.314.921	-39	9
15	The Darkest Hour	23.050	182	127	308.704	2.688.417	-38	5
16	Phantom Thread	20.373	99	206	119.987	1.019.642	-31	3
17	Coco	17.926	298	60	1.308.214	9.940.674	-4	12
18	Wind River	15.696	93	169	71.587	510.004	-25	2
19	Father Figures	14.469	207	70	35.021	232.955	-	1
20	Hot Dog	14.320	301	48	475.711	3.997.332	-51	5

Good weekend, Black Panther with a very good opening and some excellent holds (especially family stuff thanks to holidays). The Shape of Water hat a decent PTA and might expand next weekend. Fifty Shades showed excellent legs and is now very close to 2mil total, 3mil seem possible! Very close to that mark are also Jumanji and Dieses bescheuerte Herz, both in week 9 - nice! Die kleine Hexe is very strong too, with chances at 2mil total - overall finally a weekend with better business than 2017.

In Austria, Arthur & Claire got clobbered between Fifty Shades and Panther ... never had blockbuster appeal but 20k OW are rather low.

Next weekend: No big releases so enough breathing space for holdovers; for girls there comes horse adaption Wendy2 which might put an obstacle in other family releases' runs (should open to >100k).

Edited February 20, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

The new releases:

Wendy 2: ?k (560 theaters, ok reviews)
The Post: 12k (300, good and very good reviews)
Heilstätten: 4.5k (a German Found Footage horror, 257, and surprise – the reviews are pretty good)

The holdovers:

Fifty Shades Freed: 45k (actuals last Thursday 90k)
Black Panther: 38k (75k)
Wonder: 7.5k (16k)
The Shape of Water: 7k (9k) – quite good
Maze Runner 3: 5k (10.5k)
Three Billboards: 5k
All the Money in the World: 2.5k (5k)

The South-West-report is looking similar for Black Panther where it also loses a bit less than 50% compared to last Thursday/its Opening Day. Fifty Shades Freed lost a bit more than 50% last week compared to its first Thursday and only 21% over the whole weekend. I hope here it's the same . I also tried to use Wonder Woman for comparison (which had 60k admissions on its Opening Day, BP had 75k) and that film did much worse on its second Thursday (only 15.5k) but that result was weather-influenced.

Edited February 22, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

First trend is up at insidekino:

 

#1 Fifty Shades Freed: 325k (-43%)

#2 Black Panther: 275k (-34%)

#3 Die kleine Hexe: 180k (-17%)

#4 The Post: 165k

#5 Wendy 2: 150k

[IndustriousAngel]

Crazy hold for "Die Kleine Hexe" - post-holiday and with Wendy2 as direct competition, I was thinking more like 150k. And wow at that opening from "the Post" - never thaught it could go so high (actual weekend will be around 150k I guess).