BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

.. and to continue the "good" news ... Austria's March numbers are official, so our 1st quarter is complete and it iiiiis (drumroll) - as was to be expected (further drumroll) - the worst in recent hiostory - 9% down from the 1st quarter of 2017 (which was already pretty bad ... from 2016, we're down 23%). Well, with the World Cup overshadowing early summer, I think it's a pretty safe bet 2018 will become the worst year in Austrian movie history. Not even Han Solo doing a Titanic would save that year.

 

I really would like to offer some better news but there we are

[el sid]

The first trend from insidekino.de (school holidays in only 3% of the country and again the weekend is predicted to become sunny and warm. At least yesterday the weather was rather mixed):
#1 RPO 150k - will cross the 400k admission mark
#2 A Quiet Place 125k
#3 Blockers 100k
#4 Jim Knopf 100k, depends on weather
#5 Peter Rabbit 40k

And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:
The new releases:

A Quiet Place: 12k (370, mostly good and very good reviews)
Blockers: 7.5k (released in 495 theaters, mixed reviews between 2 and 6.5/10, overall worse than the US reviews)
3 Days in Quiberon: 5k (a German/Austrian/French film around the last interview with Romy Schneider,120, ok to very good reviews) -> 35k OW
The Etruscan Smile: 1.1k (107, very mixed reviews between 3 and 8/10) -> 7.5 OW
Steig. Nicht. Aus!/Don`t Get Out!: 1.1k (a German thriller, 153, pretty good reviews but WOM from previews is much worse) -> 25k OW (really?)

Spielmacher/The Playmaker: ?k, not even in the Top 20 (a German sports drama, 120, only two ok reviews so far) -> 5k OW

Papa Moll und die Entführung des fliegenden Hundes/Papa Moll and the kidnapping of the flying dog: ?k, also not even in the Top 20 (a Swiss family film, 188, very mixed reviews between 3 and 8.5/10) -> 2.5k OW

The holdovers:

Ready Player One: 15k (actuals last Thursday 45k)
Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 10k whole day (75k whole day)

Edited April 13, 2018 by el sid

[Brainbug]

The weather today (atleast here in Hesse) is so incredibly shitty that im hopefull for good numbers.

[IndustriousAngel]

this trend looks ok for the openers ... at my theater, the gap to RPO is much bigger, it's selling at least double the seats of Quiet Place as well as Blockers (which are about head-to-head)

[el sid]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The weather today (atleast here in Hesse) is so incredibly shitty that im hopefull for good numbers.

Nice to hear - for the movies. Where I live (in Bavaria) it was mostly sunny but also windy and cold. I saw that other reports tell the same like yours.

And in parts of Germany Saturday and Sunday are now predicted to become mixed instead of sunny. So the weather won`t damage the films as much as it did last weekend. And maybe the bad weather comes even earlier to the South.

[Brainbug]

30 minutes ago, el sid said:

Nice to hear - for the movies. Where I live (in Bavaria) it was mostly sunny but also windy and cold. I saw that other reports tell the same like yours.

And in parts of Germany Saturday and Sunday are now predicted to become mixed instead of sunny. So the weather won`t damage the films as much as it did last weekend. And maybe the bad weather comes even earlier to the South.

 

Its so strange to root for bad weather lol.

[Aristis]

Horrible WE...

 

RPO 130k (-28%/-39%) Not that bad... Probably a bit less than 400k.

Blockers 120k

A Quiet Place 115k

Jim Knopf 105k (-44%) Maybe it already crossed 900k.

Peter Rabbit 45k (-68%) An awful drop again, seems like this movie can't work without easter...

 

RS 25k (-22%) 925k+ 1M seems pretty tough now... But at least it has a good hold again.

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates even horribler ... except family stuff, that went up from earlier estimates. Everything else just keeps dropping

[George Parr]

Monday numbers:

 

#1 Jim Knopf 130k

#2 Ready Player One 125k (no.1 in terms of money)

#3 A Quite Place 95k (100k with previews)

#4 Blockers 90k (117.5 with previews)

#5 Peter Rabbit 60k

 

In total, likely the worst weekend in almost two years.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top16 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jim Knopf & Lukas …	129.265	735	176	924.953	6.787.445	-32	3
2	Ready Player One	125.461	576	218	385.260	4.202.714	-31	2
3	A Quiet Place	95.718	372	257	100.087	897.624	-	1
4	Blockers	90.019	495	182	117.536	940.988	-	1
5	Peter Rabbit	59.376	731	81	1.359.071	9.101.656	-57	4
6	3 Tage in Quiberon	31.320	120	261	40.633	332.641	-	1
-	MET: Luisa Miller	24.354	199	122	24.354	708.754	-	1
7	The Post	21.276	389	55	1.056.152	9.035.909	-28	8
8	Red Sparrow	21.095	313	67	922.842	8.744.541	-34	7
9	Fünf Freunde und das Tal …	18.839	511	37	434.331	2.802.884	-50	5
10	Black Panther	18.322	229	80	1.720.694	18.516.979	-35	9
11	Pacific Rim 2	16.527	374	44	404.536	4.401.383	-56	4
12	Transit	16.275	88	185	47.458	370.810	-19	2
13	La Ch'tite famille	15.426	373	41	227.066	1.864.892	-40	4
14	Midnight Sun	13.231	329	40	234.161	1.810.531	-48	4
15	Tomb Raider	12.702	306	42	564.979	5.639.361	-57	5
16	Steig. Nicht. Aus!	10.495	152	69	31.189	201.939	-	1

 

What a dreadful weekend … as a protest against the low numbers I included only releases with >10k admissions. The few positive news this weekend are domestic drama 3 Tage in Quiberon about one of Romy Schneider's last interviews - it scored the highest PTA. And both Spielberg movies are (comparatively) shining with sensible drops.

Next weekend: No big openers again … but with competition as weak as at the moment, Lady Bird and Ghost Stories both might open in the Top5. What a miserable year at the BO …

[Taruseth]

21 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top16 last weekend:

 

 

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jim Knopf & Lukas …	129.265	735	176	924.953	6.787.445	-32	3
2	Ready Player One	125.461	576	218	385.260	4.202.714	-31	2
3	A Quiet Place	95.718	372	257	100.087	897.624	-	1
4	Blockers	90.019	495	182	117.536	940.988	-	1
5	Peter Rabbit	59.376	731	81	1.359.071	9.101.656	-57	4
6	3 Tage in Quiberon	31.320	120	261	40.633	332.641	-	1
-	MET: Luisa Miller	24.354	199	122	24.354	708.754	-	1
7	The Post	21.276	389	55	1.056.152	9.035.909	-28	8
8	Red Sparrow	21.095	313	67	922.842	8.744.541	-34	7
9	Fünf Freunde und das Tal …	18.839	511	37	434.331	2.802.884	-50	5
10	Black Panther	18.322	229	80	1.720.694	18.516.979	-35	9
11	Pacific Rim 2	16.527	374	44	404.536	4.401.383	-56	4
12	Transit	16.275	88	185	47.458	370.810	-19	2
13	La Ch'tite famille	15.426	373	41	227.066	1.864.892	-40	4
14	Midnight Sun	13.231	329	40	234.161	1.810.531	-48	4
15	Tomb Raider	12.702	306	42	564.979	5.639.361	-57	5
16	Steig. Nicht. Aus!	10.495	152	69	31.189	201.939	-	1

 

 

 

What a dreadful weekend … as a protest against the low numbers I included only releases with >10k admissions. The few positive news this weekend are domestic drama 3 Tage in Quiberon about one of Romy Schneider's last interviews - it scored the highest PTA. And both Spielberg movies are (comparatively) shining with sensible drops.

Next weekend: No big openers again … but with competition as weak as at the moment, Lady Bird and Ghost Stories both might open in the Top5. What a miserable year at the BO …

That is incredible low (610k for top 10 and 733k for Top 20). Insidekino says worst since 24/16 which was during EM.

 

And I fear this weekend will be worse especially tomorrow and Friday (and these weekdays won't be nice either, especially today)

As the middle and the south are projected to have a warm weekend 25°C, the north at least a colder but still okay 18°C (at least Hamburg and Bremen) and sunny.

I think below 600k for top 10 will happen. That is just crazy.

I actually think we could approach just a bit over 500k.

 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Yep, with no big openers, it's nearly inevitable that we'll drop even lower (I'm including Austria here; last weekend was even more horrible than in Germany).

[IndustriousAngel]

omg this is looking even worse than feared ... first estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: RPO - 50k (-61%)

#2: Quiet - 40k (-58%)

#3: Blockers - 25k (-72%)

 

wow.

[manny1234]

Hopefully Infinity War lights it up and how are presales doing?

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, manny1234 said:

Hopefully Infinity War lights it up and how are presales doing?

Midnights about 10-20% atm; Thu evening looking good - Infinity War will put some fire into the BO and has a good chance at becoming the bestselling MCU movie in Germany and Austria. But remember that none of the MCU movies reached blockbuster status here; it would be nice but a surprise if it could overtake 50SoG3 as the 2018 leader.

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

omg this is looking even worse than feared ... first estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: RPO - 50k (-61%)

#2: Quiet - 40k (-58%)

#3: Blockers - 25k (-72%)

 

wow.

and Jim Knopf with 25K (-81%!)

 

and Lady Bird with 35k but that is including Previews so weekend will probably be below 25k.

That would leave a Top 5 gross of just ~160k so together with 6 to 10 averaging 15k that would leave the weekend at ~235k

which would below the 26/06 weekend (that was the weekend with the Quarterfinale of the WM (Ger:Arg on Friday afternoon (5pm)) which is the lowest weekend (at least the lowest that I found) of probably forever (so at least since 1997)

Other low weekend where 24/16 (EM) 531k

23/15 with 515K

 

 

So I have problems thinking the numbers really will be that low, but on the other hand they totally changed to whether forecast for northern germany from 17°C to up to 27°C or something like that.

 

 

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Lady Bird: 3.2k (released in 150 theaters, very good reviews) → 35k OW predicted in the first trend, at least that film is almost in line with expectations
Ghost Stories: 1.3k (345 (!) theaters, some ok, several very good reviews) → 10k OW predicted in the first trend, far under the expectations, sunshine and horror are a no go here, see also the bad hold of A Quiet Place. Hopefully The Nun will get a later release date here in Germany than July.
Breathe: 800 (148, rather modest reviews) → 7.5k OW predicted
Roman J. Israel, Esq.: ?k (103, very mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10) → 12k OW predicted

The holdovers (their Thursday holds alone wouldn`t be so bad with a less sunny weekend coming):

Ready Player One: 8.250 (actuals last Thursday 15k)
Jim Knopf & Lukas, der Lokomotivführer: 4.2k whole day (10k whole day)
A Quiet Place: 6.5k (12k)
Blockers: 4k (7.5k)

 

Edited April 20, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

can only speak for Austria but no-one in one's right mind will be going to the movies on a day like this (especially after the hard winter)

 

will be cycling off now myself, watching the last stage of the "Tour of the Alps"

[George Parr]

Some improvement with the second trend, though still on the lowest possible level:

 

#1 Ready Player One 50k

#2 A Quiet Place 40k

#3 Jim Knopf 37.5k (up 12.5k)

#4 Blockers 35k (up 10k)

#5 Lady Bird 35k

 

That means the entire top 5 is currently at a tiny bit below 200k for the weekend...

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

Some improvement with the second trend, though still on the lowest possible level:

 

#1 Ready Player One 50k

#2 A Quiet Place 40k

#3 Jim Knopf 37.5k (up 12.5k)

#4 Blockers 35k (up 10k)

#5 Lady Bird 35k

 

That means the entire top 5 is currently at a tiny bit below 200k for the weekend...

That would mean just a horrible and one of the worst and not the worst weekend.

but I think I read somewhere that Lady Bird had something like close to 10k in Previews, which wouldn't be part of the weekend.