BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Minions - 425k admissions (high degree of uncertainity)

#2: JW3 - 125k (-37%)

#3: TG2 - 120k (-22%, excellent)

#4: Elvis - 65k (-19%, at least a decent hold)

#5: BlackPhone - 40k (-17%, even better)

[Aristis]

On 6/24/2022 at 9:01 AM, Aristis said:

Thursday:

#1 Jurassic World 19,5k (-73%) 

#2 TG:M 18,5k (-61%) 

#3 Elvis 10k

#4 Black Phone 6k

#5 Geschichte der Menschheit 5,2k (-64%) 

Thursday

#1 Minions 60k

#2 TG:M 18k (-3%) 

#3 JW3 17k (-13%) 

#4 Elvis 10k (-0%) 

#5 Black Phone 6k (-0%) 

 

The first Minions movie had 160k admissions OD. 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

52 minutes ago, Aristis said:

The first Minions movie had 160k admissions OD. 

well, after the dismal presales, nobody was expecting anything any longer, so the numbers aren't actually that bad. family releases tend to have good legs anyway so not a blockbuster but probably still a success in the end.

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, after the dismal presales, nobody was expecting anything any longer, so the numbers aren't actually that bad. family releases tend to have good legs anyway so not a blockbuster but probably still a success in the end.

Neither do I think it's bad. I still hope it may reach 3M+ in the end but I guess it's best to wait for the WE first... 

[charlie Jatinder]

Minions 2 opening is depressing. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Aristis said:

Neither do I think it's bad. I still hope it may reach 3M+ in the end but I guess it's best to wait for the WE first... 

so this is ice age 3 to 4 all over again? Ice age 3 made 6.7m in 2012 but drop to 2.9m+ for its sequel. Minion made 6.9m in 2015, so 3m would be terrible. How is weather looking like? Has heatwave subdued? 

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Minions - 425k admissions (high degree of uncertainity)

#2: JW3 - 125k (-37%)

#3: TG2 - 120k (-22%, excellent)

#4: Elvis - 65k (-19%, at least a decent hold)

#5: BlackPhone - 40k (-17%, even better)

That would be okay - 25k below my final prediction.

 

 

While today looks really good, I think today will be the strongest day this weekend.

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

so this is ice age 3 to 4 all over again? Ice age 3 made 6.7m in 2012 but drop to 2.9m+ for its sequel. Minion made 6.9m in 2015, so 3m would be terrible. How is weather looking like? Has heatwave subdued? 

Could be - 450k should mean a total around 3m, but more won't be easy.

There obviously is the chance for the movie to catch on really well and have incredible legs. The first movie increase on its second weekend, but to be fair, that had insane weather during its opening weekend.

 

 

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions 2 opening is depressing. 

Germany doesn't really seem to turn out for anything that isn't James Bond (and No Way Home and in a way Harry Potter xD).

 

 

Prior to this month I was pretty certain that Thor 4 would (like Thor 3 did behind Fack Ju Göhte 3) open in second place behind the Minions - now I am not so certain anymore.

If Minion 2 increases like Minions did to lets say 500k - Thor 3 should still be able to get there: Thor 3 opened with 403k but it had Tuesday and Wednesday before that (2 holidays - the second one only in southern Germany though) with 265k admissions.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Taruseth

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

 

 

Germany doesn't really seem to turn out for anything that isn't James Bond (and No Way Home and in a way Harry Potter xD).

Minions were bigger than all these I think. Atleast the last two.

[Taruseth]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions were bigger than all these I think. Atleast the last two.

Forgot to write "anymore".

Most movies kinda underperform compared to elsewhere since 2020 outside of those few movies - in how many countries is bloody Fantastic Beasts 3 the most successful movie of the year?

Minions should replace it in that position, but if the 425k turns out to be an overestimate and it opens with like 350k, that Minions has a big chance of ending below 3m, meaning FB3 has a chance to stay in that position until Avatar 2 - in the end it will probably TGM that prevents FB3 from staying in that position - for now I'd say 2900k total for that, but I had to constantly up the total - when I wrote down a path to 2500k I thought I over predicted -turns out the opposite is true.

True, but the only real hits since 2020 have been James Bond and NWH.

Adm.:

Skyfall (2012 #2): 7826k

Spectre (2015 #3): 7089k

NTTD (2021 #1): 6037k

 

Minions (2015 #4): 6946k

 

Spider-Man (2002 #5): 5186k

NWH (2021 #2): 4541k

 

If Minion would drop like NTTD did it would get close to 6m admissions.

 

Being a bit more optimistic: The year end chart could look something like this:

Avatar 2: 7.5m (I think this has a solid chance to be gigantic)*

Minions 2: 4.5m

TGM: 3.1m

FB3: 3.0m

 

* I wouldn't be surprised if this opens around Avatars numbers (893k and has SW legs and ends with 3m-3.5m, but I also wouldn't be surprised if this opens close to TFA (2139k) but with JC legs for a total of 10-12m.

In other words this could go anywhere - come back down to regular level or JC repeats his Titanic / Avatar magic again.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Taruseth

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Forgot to write "anymore".

Most movies kinda underperform compared to elsewhere since 2020 outside of those few movies - in how many countries is bloody Fantastic Beasts 3 the most successful movie of the year?

Minions should replace it in that position, but if the 425k turns out to be an overestimate and it opens with like 350k, that Minions has a big chance of ending below 3m, meaning FB3 has a chance to stay in that position until Avatar 2 - in the end it will probably TGM that prevents FB3 from staying in that position - for now I'd say 2900k total for that, but I had to constantly up the total - when I wrote down a path to 2500k I thought I over predicted -turns out the opposite is true.

True, but the only real hits since 2020 have been James Bond and NWH.

Adm.:

Skyfall (2012 #2): 7826k

Spectre (2015 #3): 7089k

NTTD (2021 #1): 6037k

 

Minions (2015 #4): 6946k

 

Spider-Man (2002 #5): 5186k

NWH (2021 #2): 4541k

 

If Minion would drop like NTTD did it would get close to 6m admissions.

 

Being a bit more optimistic: The year end chart could look something like this:

Avatar 2: 7.5m (I think this has a solid chance to be gigantic)

Minions 2: 4.5m

TGM: 3.1m

FB3: 3.0m

 

Omg, the top 3 over here isn't far better than top 3 of 2021. Not a good sign for German cinema. Just where are all the German? 

[Taruseth]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Omg, the top 3 over here isn't far better than top 3 of 2021. Not a good sign for German cinema. Just where are all the German? 

Top 3 of the past years:

2021:

James Bond NTTD: 6037k

Spider-Man NWH: 4541k

Fast & Furious 9: 1968k

 

2020:

Bad Boys for Life: 1820k

Tenet: 1686k

Nightlife: 1414k (German movie)

2019

Frozen II: 6782k

The Lion King: 5653k

Perfect Secret: 5321k (German movie)

 

2018:

Bohemien Rhapsody: 3966k (helped by being played in 2020 in auto cinemas etc.)

Fantastic Beasts 2: 3896k

All about me: 3870k (German movie: Der Junge muss an die frische Luft)

 

2017:

Fack Ju Göhte 3: 6108k

SW TLJ: 5917k

Despicable Me 3: 4653k

 

2016:

Rouge One: 3994k

Finding Dory: 3922k

Pets: 3848k

(Zoomania: 3845k)

 

2015:

SW TFA: 9060k

Fack Ju Göhte 2: 7734k

Spectre: 7089k

Minions: 6945k

 

It's insane that Minions was only #4 in its year but in every year since then it would have gotten first place with that admission count.

 

The problem is more the depth - 2018 and 2016 both had no movie above 4m admissions but they had 5 and 6 movies between 3m and 4m admissions with the difference between #3, #4 and #5 in 2016 being less than 10k.

[charlie Jatinder]

I think 475k is doable, may be even 500k

[Taruseth]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think 475k is doable, may be even 500k

At least today looks really great and the evening shows are looking good too - even the 10-11 pm showings have a few tickets sold.

 

500k for certain would be good.

 

Top Guns 8 pm showings look great too.

 

Lightyear got slashed to 1 showing a day at the local cinema, same amount as Doctor Strange 2 and Fantastic Beast 3 and Sonic 2 and "Magische Welt der Tiere" (lol, that movie is in week 38)

Menschheit (German movie) that opened on the same weekend with only a couple percent more admissions gets 3 showings.

Top Gun 2 has 4 tomorrow

Jurassic World has 4 too.

 

And Minions gets 12!

 

Could something like

60k

170k

140k

130k

for 500k happen.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Taruseth

[Aristis]

15 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

so this is ice age 3 to 4 all over again? Ice age 3 made 6.7m in 2012 but drop to 2.9m+ for its sequel. Minion made 6.9m in 2015, so 3m would be terrible. How is weather looking like? Has heatwave subdued? 

I guess you're right, not bad was the wrong way of putting it. It is extremely disappointing but that's what seemed to happen with the kind of presales it got. In that sense, as it was expected, it's not too bad but comparing it to its predecessor it obviously is. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Could something like

60k

170k

140k

130k

Could be wishful thinking but

60
120
150
175 // 505

[Taruseth]

57 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Could be wishful thinking but

60
120
150
175 // 505

That bad yesterday - I don't think it will get a 175k Sunday, Sunday weather wise looks to be on par with Thursday, while yesterday was colder and rainier.

 

If it does, it would be a good sign for the future though.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Taruseth

[Taruseth]

On 7/1/2022 at 8:20 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Minions - 425k admissions (high degree of uncertainity)

#2: JW3 - 125k (-37%)

#3: TG2 - 120k (-22%, excellent)

#4: Elvis - 65k (-19%, at least a decent hold)

#5: BlackPhone - 40k (-17%, even better)

New trend:

#1: Minions - 425k 

#2: TG2 - 130k (-16%, damn)

#3: JWD - 125k (-37%)

#4: Elvis - 65k (-19%)

#5: BlackPhone - 42.5k (-11% incredible)

#6 Menschheit - 30k (-33%)

 

 

 

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Could be wishful thinking but

60
120
150
175 // 505

425k would then be:

60

120k

120k

125k

??

[Aristis]

2nd Trend

 

#1 Minions 425k

#2 TG:M 130k (-16%) 

#3 JW3 125k (-36%) 

#4 Elvis 65k (-20%/-29%) 

#5 Black Phone 42,5k (-11%/-18%) 

Edited July 2, 2022 by Aristis
Just one minute late 👀

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

New trend:

#1: Minions - 425k 

#2: TG2 - 130k (-16%, damn)

#3: JWD - 125k (-37%)

#4: Elvis - 65k (-19%)

#5: BlackPhone - 42.5k (-11% incredible)

#6 Menschheit - 30k (-33%)

 

 

 

425k would then be:

60

120k

120k

125k

??

Minion 2 should benefit from the summer school holiday weekdays that is currently underway right? The early number show that most of the countries don’t see the type of minion fatigue that we are seeing here in Germany. I hope summer school holiday compensate the loss, as long as the weather can be kinder to cinema. 
 

as for TGM, tenet made another 600k admission after a 146k weekend. Not exactly comparable but I think 3m is definitely possible because of empty competition in late July to August. Again, the hope is built on more rainy July after intense heatwave in June. Even with 5x legs from 613k opening, TGM holding power here in Germany actually fall behind of what we have in USA, what a rare defeat for a leggy market like Germany. 
 

 

[Brainbug]

Good thing: Minions 2 underperforming compared to its predecessor. Little fuckers.

 

Bad thing: Means that theaters wont be saved by this movie either.

 

Conclusion: German BO situation continues to be depressing.