MinaTakla Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 1 minute ago, HH84 said: The last week Pets did benefit from summer breaks everywhere: On thursday school started in the first states and over the next weeks more states will follow. So the results during the week should get worse compared to the weekend. How many admissions do you expect it to end up with in Germany by the end of its run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 1 hour ago, HH84 said: The last week Pets did benefit from summer breaks everywhere: On thursday school started in the first states and over the next weeks more states will follow. So the results during the week should get worse compared to the weekend. Yes, that's true and I expected a good result but not 425k admissions. At least in Bavaria (the second biggest state of Gemany) the summer holidays just started. And in Austria the summer holidays also do not end before (the middle of) September. Which is one factor why Pets stayed completely flat in Austria in its second weekend = the last weekend with 67k admissions. Overall I'm not so sure if holidays are always that positive for films. When it comes to family film I would say holidays help more than they damage. But in terms of other genres the numbers of admissions could remain almost constant because of the many people (especially students and pupils) who use their vacation to travel to other states or countries or prefer summer parties etc. instead of going to the theaters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Weekend actuals: No. visitors weekend % cinemas cut Visitors to Sunday week Title (Distributor) Boxoffice in € Weekend Boxoffice in € until Sunday Possible Final Result in thousands. Visitors RT IMDB 1 437 855 -38 730 600 1572645 2 Pets (U) 3896515 13726783 4,000 74 6.8 2 139 427 -37 598 233 978 615 3 Star Trek Beyond (PAR) 1533922 10665358 1,250 84 7.5 3 125 227 --- 584 214 125 227 1 Ghostbusters (COL) 1246570 1246570 400 73 5.5 4 121 987 -35 748 163 2387834 6 Ice Age - collision ahead! (FOX) 926 373 19073440 2,750 12 5.8 5 104 802 --- 278 377 105 463 1 Lights Out (WB) 925 796 929 809 400 76 6.9 6 103 482 -38 450 230 371 335 2 Legend of Tarzan (WB) 1044210 3638478 600 35 6.6 7 95,115 -6 650 146 2022880 7 A whole half a year (WB) 773 837 15867298 2,250 58 7.6 8th 82,852 -49 536 155 1315223 4 Independence Day - Recurring (FOX) 891 258 13998256 1,500 32 5.5 9 50,676 -20 262 193 276 853 3 Breakfast at Monsieur Henri (NV) 411 175 2059213 600 - 6.7 10 44,125 -12 182 242 318 085 4 Toni Erdmann (NFP) 419 259 2914421 600 91 8.6 11 24,439 -51 524 47 237 779 3 BFG - Big Friendly Giant (NCO) 195 357 1985681 300 74 6.8 12 18,661 -44 192 97 906 420 8th Central Intelligence (U) 165 119 7285415 950 66 6.6 13 17,604 -40 331 53 477 098 5 Emerald Green (CON) 140 762 3626255 525 - 6.2 14 17,140 --- 78 220 19,845 1 Julieta (TOB) 137 221 155 082 100 67 7.3 15 13,901 +12 43 323 614 861 22 Pear Cake with lavender (NV) 97,529 4502459 650 - 6.8 16 13,812 --- 94 147 29,994 1 Maggie's plan (MFA) 104 778 202 090 75 86 6.5 17 11,390 -50 205 56 700 336 8th Conjuring 2 (WB) 109 192 6260269 725 80 7.8 18 10,392 -45 471 22 129 548 4 Mullewapp - A beautiful mess (SC) 63,756 808 718 200 - 5.2 19 8,718 --- 85 103 24,964 1 Collide (UNI) 73,550 156 066 50 - 6.1 20 6,009 -17 92 65 64,563 4 Travelled with Jacqueline (ALM) 45.819 445 362 100 - 6.8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Weather can change things big time in Germany (and Europe in general), but Pets should achieve approssimately a 5.5 multiplier. Among films opening in the middle of summer, Dragon Trainer had a slightly worse 2nd weekend hold and finished with a 5.2x, Smurfs had a better 2nd weekend hold but collapsed the weekend after and therefore didn't even manage a 4.5x. Both of them showed similar strength on weekdays. Cars 2 was a badly received crappy sequel, so it doesn't count. As long as it stays above 300K admissions next weekend, 4M is still doable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 9, 2016 Author Share Posted August 9, 2016 Sorry I was travelling for some days so no updates but now I'm back - here we go: Germany's Top20 last weekend title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The Secret Life of Pets 437.855 730 600 1.572.645 13.726.783 -38 2 2 Star Trek 3 139.427 598 233 978.615 10.665.358 -37 3 3 Ghostbusters 125.227 584 214 125.227 1.246.570 - 1 4 Ice Age 5 121.987 748 163 2.387.834 19.073.440 -35 6 5 Lights Out 104.802 278 377 105.463 929.809 - 1 6 Legend of Tarzan 103.482 450 230 371.335 3.638.478 -38 2 7 Me Before You 95.115 650 146 2.022.880 15.867.298 -6 7 8 Independence Day 2 82.852 536 155 1.315.223 13.998.256 -49 4 9 L'Etudiante et Monsieur Henri 50.676 262 193 276.853 2.059.213 -20 3 10 Toni Erdmann 44.125 182 242 318.085 2.914.421 -12 4 11 The BFG 24.439 524 47 237.779 1.985.681 -51 3 12 Central Intelligence 18.661 192 97 906.420 7.285.415 -44 8 13 Smaragdgrün 17.604 331 53 477.098 3.626.255 -40 5 14 Julieta 17.140 78 220 19.845 155.082 - 1 15 Le Goût des merveilles 13.901 43 323 614.861 4.502.459 +12 22 16 Maggie's Plan 13.812 94 147 29.994 202.090 - 1 17 Conjuring 2 11.390 205 56 700.336 6.260.269 -50 8 18 Mullewapp 10.392 471 22 129.548 808.718 -45 4 19 Collide 8.718 85 103 24.964 156.066 - 1 20 La vache 6.009 92 65 64.563 445.362 -17 4 A comparatively good weekend, even if family fare (among them #1 Pets) suffered a lot (BFG had the hardest drop in the Top20). WOM hit Me BeforeYou keeps chugging along and has now passed 2mil total, a real surprise hit out of nowhere as happens sometimes. Ice Age 5 has found its pace and makes up (a bit) in legs what it missed on opening weekend. Among openers, Ghostbusters missed even my modest expectations while Lights Out did a bit better than expected. Next weekend: Three interesting releases - Jason Bourne is a bit of a wild card; the original Bourne movies were successful, but they're old news, and Matt Damon's big hits are a few years back, too - so I'd consider everything over a 400k opening weekend a success. This should be enough for #1. For TMNT2 I see 200k as the bar for success - the first one wasn't that well liked and this one has a worse opening date. The third opener, french comedy Retour chez ma mère, might end up as the winner - not on opening weekend of course, but in total admissions over their runs. The trailer was well received and if the movie delivers, we might have another WOM hit on our hands. Reviews were somewhat reserved so probably not, but the Germans realy dig those rather broad french comedies ... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 On 8.8.2016 at 7:44 PM, MinaTakla said: How many admissions do you expect it to end up with in Germany by the end of its run? I would say 3.8-3.9M and with a chance for 4M if the weather is mainly bad the next weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 12, 2016 Author Share Posted August 12, 2016 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de: #1: Pets - 400k admissions (-10%) #2: Bourne - 300k (was hoping for more ...) #3: TMNT2 - 120k (ouchhh) #4: Schweinskopf - 110k (sensational) #5: IA5 - 100k (-20%) #6: ST3 - 75k (-45% - crosses the million but still meh) Good hold for Pets if true, but "Schweinskopf al dente", the 3rd entry in the Rita Falk crime comedy adaptions, is the story of the weekend ... the bavarian series keeps expanding! Fun movies, too, even if the production quality is more TV than cinema 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 (edited) Maybe that „Schweinskopf al dente“ success story is of lower interest for the people not living in southern Germany or Austria but I live in Bavaria and so... ;): Schweinskopf al dente started in only 149 theaters in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg (Winterkartoffelknödel in 2014 in 132 theaters) although both predecessor of this mostly well received crime-comedy-book series with local color had more than 500k admissions. Perhaps it wouldn't be so popular in other German states as in Bavaria but for example the crime-comedy-tv-serial „Der Bulle von Tölz“ also had excellent tv ratings in Germany as a whole for years. I think they should have tried a bigger release. But probably „Schweinskopf al dente“ will see an expansion like its predecessor over the next weeks. It had 24k admissions yesterday, almost as many as TMNT 2. Some other Thursday admission numbers (actuals): Jason Bourne: 70k (New)TMNT 2: 27k (New) Pets: 85k (last Thursday 95k) Star Trek Beyond: 16k (l.T. 30k) Edited August 12, 2016 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 12, 2016 Author Share Posted August 12, 2016 Definitely a nice local phenomenon, those Bavarian crime comedies, and they do quite well in Austria, too (most Austrians belong to the bajuvaric dialect group after all). I really liked the first two entries and hope to watch this one on Monday or Tuesday (a little short on time atm) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 The 2nd trend: #1 Pets 375k #2 Jason Bourne 300k #3 TMNT2 120k #4 Schweinskopf al dente 120k → :) #5 Ice Age 5 90k #6 Star Trek Beyond 75k #7 Lights Out 70k – a nice hold for a horror film #8 Me Before You 60k #9 Ghostbusters 60k – no legs #10 Legend of Tarzan 60k #11 Frühstück bei Monsieur Henri 42.5k #12 Toni Erdmann 40k #13 Independence Day 2 40k #14 Willkommen im Hotel Mama 25k 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Amazing run for Me Before You. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 final estimates lower for everything ... weather too fine on Sat+Sun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 Preliminary results for Germany's weekend: #1: Pets - 360k (-18%, nice) #2: Bourne - 285k (not a flop but far from a success) #3: TMNT2 - 120k (might be called a flop) #4: Schweinskopf - 105k (nice success, fine PTA with less than 150 theaters) #5: IA5 - 85k (-30%, not as good as Pets but not bad either) #6: ST3 - 75k (-46% ... crosses 1mil total but is fading quickly) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Preliminary results for Germany's weekend: #1: Pets - 360k (-18%, nice) #2: Bourne - 285k (not a flop but far from a success) #3: TMNT2 - 120k (might be called a flop) #4: Schweinskopf - 105k (nice success, fine PTA with less than 150 theaters) #5: IA5 - 85k (-30%, not as good as Pets but not bad either) #6: ST3 - 75k (-46% ... crosses 1mil total but is fading quickly) SS will be number 1 by a mile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 It's so hard not to follow BO when being on vacation... Pets is doing good and should be still on course for 3,5M to 4M. All depends on weather I don't think there's direct competition the next time and it will stay as the number one family movie. TMNT2 could be expected... IA5 is doing great - should have been much more already but it had only 443k OW so 2,55M now is a good result. It will have a 6x multipler soon. Ghosbusters is a disaster! More than 50% drop after 125k OW... It won't get 10% of the first Ghostbusters neither 20% of the second (which fell by 50% from the first) Lights out has a good 2nd weekend drop (-33%) and MBY is a phenomenon! It fell by 37% this week but should have 2,1M admissions already! It had 242k admissions OW (342k with previews). It's a great and unexpected result. And at last there are a few weekends that are up from last year! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Weekend actuals and the final column has Mark G's projections for how much each film will make by the end of its run No. visitors weekend % cinemas cut Visitors to Sunday week Title (Distributor) Boxoffice in € Weekend Boxoffice in € until Sunday Mark G's projection for end of run (in 1000s) RT IMDB 1 365 076 -17 742 492 2219423 3 Pets (U) 3145636 19084386 4,000 2 284 589 --- 528 539 284 589 1 Jason Bourne (U) 2627220 2627220 1,000 3 108 399 --- 432 251 118.100 1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - Out of the Shadows (PAR) 1074631 1167689 350 4 95,888 --- 149 644 111 143 1 Schweinskopf al dente (NCO) 764 920 878 496 600 5 87,012 -29 715 122 2560206 7 Ice Age - collision ahead! (FOX) 651 500 20317766 2,850 6 76,536 -45 521 147 1131031 4 Star Trek Beyond (PAR) 846 733 12250832 1,250 7 71,282 -32 284 251 222 141 2 Lights Out (WB) 632 449 1894032 400 8th 62,993 -34 598 105 2144515 8th A whole half a year (WB) 521 826 16807661 2,350 9 62,712 -50 592 106 250 962 2 Ghostbusters (COL) 595 310 2389312 400 10 56,676 -45 450 126 476 756 3 Legend of Tarzan (WB) 570 804 4631998 600 11 42,701 -48 400 107 1397868 5 Independence Day - Recurring (FOX) 452 974 14824709 1,500 12 38,087 -25 282 135 348 522 4 Breakfast at Monsieur Henri (NV) 308 821 2609740 600 13 37,226 -16 186 200 385 383 5 Toni Erdmann (NFP) 347 542 3515315 600 14 16,610 --- 118 141 32,319 1 Welcome to Hotel Mama (ALM) 131 228 222 056 100 15 14,240 -42 386 37 269 383 4 BFG - Big Friendly Giant (NCO) 110 199 2221204 300 16 12,703 -26 82 155 45,356 2 Julieta (TOB) 102 617 348 407 100 17 10,440 -41 249 42 500 793 6 Emerald Green (CON) 84,176 3802586 525 18 9,206 --- 68 135 9,206 1 The Last: Naruto (KSM) 123 656 123 656 15 19 9,171 -34 94 98 48,708 2 Maggies plan (MFA) 70,916 339 255 75 20 8,671 -54 132 66 923 886 9 Central Intelligence (U) 77,602 7425301 950 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 Three new releases in the Top4 but Pets stay on top! Both wide openers stayed below expectations; local release Schweinskopf otoh had the highest PTA and should see some nice holds through the next weeks. Next weekend: Against the weak competition, Suicide Squad as the single wide opener should have no problems conquering the market, the question is how high it can go. Sensible estimates have it in the 500-700k region which would be a nice success (I doubt it will have anything like Deadpool's legs, though). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 First trend: Suicide Squad 550k Pets 275k Bourne 160k Conni & Co 115k Schweinskopf 70k Ice Age 5 55k Captain Fantastic 45k Will be interesting to see, how the weather will effect the next trends and how frontloaded Suicide Squad will be. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picores Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 That would be decent but unimpressive for SS. Let's see how the weekend trends. Turtles 2 fade away....lol Nice drop for Pets, okish for Bourne 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 The actual Thursday numbers (no estimates available yesterday, sorry): New releases: Suicide Squad: 115k (for comparison: BvS had 140k and 546k admissions on its weekend of release, Captain America: Civil War 90k/550k but had a better WOM) Connie & Co. (570 theaters, a German teen film with ok reviews): 20k Antonio, ihm schmeckt's nicht (313 theaters, a German culture clash comedy. The predecessor had 1.4 M admissions seven years ago but this time the reviews are way more terrible): 5k Holdovers: Jason Bourne: 31k (last Thursday 70k) Pets: 50k (l.T. 85k) Schweinskopf al dente: 13k – not a bad hold but could have been a little bit better Suicide Squad started in 615 theaters and as you see above it has almost no competition. The reviews from critics are not very nice, I have to say that. Reviews from moviegoers are kinder: so far ca. 50% of the visitors say they are disappointed and the other half likes it. It's still too early to say which overall WOM it will have but I would guess it will be more like „ok“ instead of „very good“. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...