mexico Mexico Box Office | $83.1M total up to Monday for Inside Out 2; here come the Minions!

[Carlangonz]

JUNE 15TH-18TH WEEKEND.

 

1. The Flash - $133M/$149.3M

2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $52.8M/$223.4M

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse - $40.5M/$411.7M

4. The Little Mermaid - $16.5M/$343.9M

5. Fast X - $10.9M/$650.9M

6. Asteroid City - $3.5M/$3.5M

7. Suga: Road to D-Day - $3.4M/$3.4M

8. J-Hope in the Box - $3M/$3M

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $2.3M/$638,3M

10. Slapface - $2.3M/$2.3M

 

With Flash under estimates and even below Quantumania I think it's going to be interesting to see how its trajectory goes. Maybe does a bit better but won't expect it to go over $350M.

Rise of the Beasts is looking to beat Quantumania but like Flash won't do it by much and finish around $330M.

Across the Spiderverse couldn't recover from losing premium formats and competition. Should stabilize from this weekend but screen loss is severe as it's now playing only at one screen in most places so still looks like a $480M finish.

Little Mermaid took a big hit this weekend but remains on track to catch mid $370M which has been the expectation for two weeks. Don't think could be much higher because it faces the same issue as Spiderverse especially considering the next two widest releases are from Disney as well.

Fast X and Guardians are in their final days looking to gross some $15M and $5M extra respectively.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

ATSV becomes the 80th movie to gross more than 400M lc.

 

Top Movies 2023 (lc)

01     1,541,000,000  The Super Mario Bros. Movie

02        650,900,000  Fast X

03        638,300,000  Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3

04        411,700,000  Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

05        343,900,000  The Little Mermaid (2023)

06        330,055,000  Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania

07        259,000,000  John Wick IV

08        223,400,000  Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

09        192,000,000  Shazam: Fury of the Gods

10        182,000,000  The Whale

[Carlangonz]

Both Sony and Disney showing confidence on their weekend releases. Elemental starting at 3000+ screens and No Hard Feelings releasing at 1,000 screens. 

 

Flash is keeping all premium formats but Elemental managing 3D to avoid depressing the ATP. Little Mermaid and Fast X holding a bit longer but still taking a hit in shows; Spiderverse and Transformers looking the same in mid-low tier markets but down in major cities.

 

Barbie tickets may come sooner than expected. Before they go on sale I'm thinking the lack of 3D and premium formats will hurt it but still shall score a high ATP due to its appeal to an adult crowd so $170M could be a good starting point. For future reference and considering all variants Beauty and the Beast 3-Day adjusts to $260M. 

[Purple Minion]

$24.2M is the latest total for ATSV.

 

Have a feeling Elemental will be a consecutive 100M+ lc opener. Hope Indy doesn't break the streak!

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

The First Slam Dunk - July 27th

 

Suzume numbers may be it. 

 

cc. @Issac Newton

[Purple Minion]

Mario had a minimal drop last weekend (14.3%) but it's barely registering, total is now $85,284,612.

[Carlangonz]

Barbie tickets go on sale next Thursday; June 29th. That's the widest sale window since Super Mario Bros so it'll mess with comps on pace

[Purple Minion]

$14.4M total for The Flash, 248.5M lc. Could have been worse.

 

The Little Mermaid passed $20M and ATSV $25M.

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Purple Minion]

$4.6M OW for Elemental, 79M lc. Lower end of prediction and way below 100M lc. Still, 3rd highest OS.

[pepsa]

37 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

$4.6M OW for Elemental, 79M lc. Lower end of prediction and way below 100M lc. Still, 3rd highest OS.

How does the WoM seem? Does it have a shot at a 4x multi?

[Issac Newton]

$15.8M Transformers 

[Carlangonz]

Opposite to DOM I think the good news this weekend here is for Flash which may be aiming closer to $350M than expected last week but of course not great result overall.

 

Disney really flooded advertising for Elemental but sadly didn't work out. It's up to legs and fortunately doesn't have competition. Hopefully 3.5x to go close of $300M.

 

Meh for Transformers and Spiderverse. Along with Little Mermaid took the hit on screens and now all looking like $10M below of expectations ($330M/$470M/$370M)

 

Indy's prospects not looking good. Maybe $50M-$60M opening but wouldn't be surprised if it went lower.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Barbie shows are up and ready to go. Initial show count seems similar to both Little Mermaid and Spiderverse. Like both of them there are no previews but is starting earlier than those in some markets due to summer break. Also is taking PLFs including Dolby ones from Death Reckoning so seems like Oppenheimer will get only IMAX and 4DX. 

 

Speaking of Death Reckoning, Paramount is launching sales for it this Thursday as well. No advanced screenings like Maverick but is getting 7PM previews on the 12th. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Shanks]

JUNE 22nd-25th:

1. Element - $80.1M

2. The Flash - $57M z/ $248.7M

3. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $31.2M / $273.2M

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse - $23M / $448.8M

5. No Hard Feelings - $16.7M

6. The Little Mermaid - $7.2M / $16.7M

7. Fast X - $5.2M / $660M

8. Postmortem - $2.1M

9. Asteroid City - $1.9M / $7.1M

10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - $887K / $640.1M

 

[Purple Minion]

Unless it drastically collapses, Flash should gross more than Shazam! and Black Adam, but will not reach WW or Snyder heights. Admissions is another story, below the first Shazam!

Edited June 26, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

INDIANA JONES: THE DIAL OF DESTINY OD - T-3 DAYS

 

Title	Number of shows	Sold	Total Available	Occupancy	% of comp	Comp in lc
Indiana Jones 5	60	323	11086	2.91%
Little Mermaid	78	1949	17685	11.02%	16.57%	$3.8M
Spiderverse	84	9797	19284	50.80%	3.29%	$1.48M

 

Show count lacks at least 16 shows from locations who haven't launched sales.

Yeah it's part on a shorter sale window than usual and of course this is a heavily walk-up franchise (or at least it should be) but things aren't looking good at all. Sales could tell how much of a younger appeal it has like John Wick which is strong on presales at least for premium shows but this one isn't anywhere close to it.

Comps are not the best ones we could get right now and it'll finish above those two but buzz hasn't really took off and there's no nostalgia going for it. Also 85% of sales are coming from two out of six locations which are located within an upper-class area so may even be less GA-friendly than Star Wars.

Adjusted ATP comps
Little Mermaid - $4.9M
Spiderverse - $1.8M

Edited June 27, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Meanwhile Barbie taking one underperformer/flop every week. This time may be two of them..

 

Honestly I forgot about Ruby Gillman. Universal really just dropped the ball on it.

I'm actually considering Oppenheimer could overperform as well. Could be even bigger than Indy. Perhaps a $250M-$270M weekend between Barbie-Oppenheimer duo.

Feel sorry for Death Reckoning.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Top Movies All Time (lc)

 

23    676,815,295    The Fate of the Furious (2017)

24    660,200,000    Fast X (2023)

25    642,094,748    Captain Marvel (2019)

26    640,100,000    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (2023)

 

62    449,000,000    Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (2023)

 

Fast X and GOTG3 won't reach 10M tickets. Very few screens available in this busy Summer release schedule.

[Carlangonz]

• Death Reckoning started sales just today and at the end is getting early screenings on the 9th but only on IMAX. I'll add those few seats to previews. 
• The Red Door launched sales as well. Previews at 7:00PM on the 5th. Only a few shows that won't make much of a dent.
• Barbie initial allocation among our comps; 18k seats sandwiched by 1k o/u between Little Mermaid and Spiderverse respectively. It's getting all the biggest auditoriums so sales for Oppenheimer are going to skew a lot for IMAX and VIPs
• This weekend Elemental shall remain as the widest release; above Indy and Ruby in show count. Starting this Thursday is also adding PLFs and sharing some of them with holdovers like Transformers. It's also keeping the largest auditoriums. Indy is getting only IMAX and 4DX but could begin to share them with other titles by next week. cc. @pepsa

Edited June 28, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Data from the previous Indy movie:

 

Movie	OW LC	OW Aud	Total LC	Total Aud
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom..	40,309,852	929,959	119,100,089	2,953,408

 

Dial should beat both in lc, but audience will be hard to catch.