Inside Out 2 | June 14, 2024 | Biggest animated movie of all time! We aren’t Pixover but Pixulling Back!

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, Avatree said:

How so? That would be the biggest Pixar opening since Toy Story 4.

That's not a high bar, right now that's only like 40M I think

[AnthonyJPHer]

Let’s pump the brakes on the doomposting guys. We don’t know what its opening weekend will be. Walkups could be strong. We don’t know.

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If the sequel of a beloved classic can't even outopen the original film, I simply don't know what there is to be happy about.

 

I think Disney/Pixar should be evaluated on a curve post-Covid. Whatever audience they had before is not there now, and they have to gradually earn them back through another string of acclaimed movies that earned them their brand power in the first place. 

 

I don't know how consciously aware the GA is about it, but I do think there is still a lot of reason to be skeptical about this just from a creative crew absence perspective. They've been smart to promote the anxiety character a lot which does seem to be the liveliest hook on offer, but it's still gonna be dependent on word of mouth to really fire up mainstream interest.

 

As long as the budget isn't ridiculous this at least should not have to worry much about being a flop, and I think that's the main thing Pixar is concerned about right now more than being able to match the receipts of the original.

[emoviefan]

So the movie is 3 weeks away and can easily  open above that 80-85. Also the movie does not close on June 17th. It has summer weekdays to stretch it's legs if WOM is good to great. Elemental did a multiple of 5 last year with mid reviews and decent but not great WOM. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

So the movie is 3 weeks away and can easily  open above that 80-85. Also the movie does not close on June 17th. It has summer weekdays to stretch it's legs if WOM is good to great. Elemental did a multiple of 5 last year with mid reviews and decent but not great WOM. 

Yeah, I saw a comment on Reddit that said "Deadline and Lowballing name a more iconic duo" and I gotta say, yeah I hope they're lowballing with this meh $80-85 prediction. 

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

So the movie is 3 weeks away and can easily  open above that 80-85. Also the movie does not close on June 17th. It has summer weekdays to stretch it's legs if WOM is good to great. Elemental did a multiple of 5 last year with mid reviews and decent but not great WOM. 

I feel like that yes it could go above tracking, don’t feel like expecting rave legs is fair for it when Despicable Me opens on Week 3. Still a good multiple make no mistake but feel like that limits the possibility of Elemental like legs.

[JustLurking]

43 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I think Disney/Pixar should be evaluated on a curve post-Covid. Whatever audience they had before is not there now, and they have to gradually earn them back through another string of acclaimed movies that earned them their brand power in the first place. 

 

I don't know how consciously aware the GA is about it, but I do think there is still a lot of reason to be skeptical about this just from a creative crew absence perspective. They've been smart to promote the anxiety character a lot which does seem to be the liveliest hook on offer, but it's still gonna be dependent on word of mouth to really fire up mainstream interest.

 

As long as the budget isn't ridiculous this at least should not have to worry much about being a flop, and I think that's the main thing Pixar is concerned about right now more than being able to match the receipts of the original.

If you have to look at things "on a scale" then that only reinforces the fact that this opening would not be good on a vacuum.

[HummingLemon496]

26 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If you have to look at things "on a scale" then that only reinforces the fact that this opening would not be good on a vacuum.

Holy shit for real lmao, "this bad result is happening because of X, Y, and Z, so therefore it's actually a good result" And I say this as a Disney/Inside Out supporter who wanted this movie to blast to $150M+ but sadly it'll do around half-ish that. 

Edited May 24 by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

17 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

And I say this as a Disney/Inside Out supporter who wanted this movie to blast to $150M+ but sadly it'll do around half-ish that. 

 

This is exactly the problem. You're too deep into emotional investment in a big number that you refuse to acknowledge the reality of their situation right now. 

 

What do you truly think the consequences of a mere $80 mil opening would be besides just being "bad" in your opinion? It's still a pretty solid opening for any movie with a presumably $200 mil budget with good overseas prospects. And if it turns out to be a great movie with awards recognition, that would go a lot more towards improving studio morale than a $150 mil opening weekend.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, AniNate said:

This is exactly the problem. You're too deep into emotional investment in a big number that you refuse to acknowledge the reality of their situation right now. 

 

What do you truly think the consequences of a mere $80 mil opening would be besides just being "bad" in your opinion? It's still a pretty solid opening for any movie with a presumably $200 mil budget with good overseas prospects. And if it turns out to be a great movie with awards recognition, that would go a lot more towards improving studio morale than a $150 mil opening weekend.

Yeah that's fair and sorry if I came across as too smug in the comment right above this one, but even if there's reasonable justification, the result is still disappointing to me. 

 

And, ok, it's a good number for breaking even and making a profit but a bad number for the sequel to a movie that did $356M almost 10 years ago. 

[AniNate]

As far as Elio's prospects are concerned, a really good inside out 2 is imo a lot more important than a financial juggernaut of one.

[keysersoze123]

If Inside Out 2 disappoints, I expect Disney cutting down on Pixar risky projects like Elio. At least take the production overseas to cut costs. Its not tenable to spend 200m+ on these projects. So financial success is imperative and I am still confident it will do great. The theaters already putting out so many shows clearly means there is interest. This is a family movie and so presales will amp up like week/10 days onwards. 

[AniNate]

They've already done the dialing back on risky projects with the sequel heavy slate. Elio is the only original on the schedule for either studio. But I think with a critically acclaimed IO2, its opening weekend floor will be higher.

[JustLurking]

42 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

This is exactly the problem. You're too deep into emotional investment in a big number that you refuse to acknowledge the reality of their situation right now. 

 

What do you truly think the consequences of a mere $80 mil opening would be besides just being "bad" in your opinion? It's still a pretty solid opening for any movie with a presumably $200 mil budget with good overseas prospects. And if it turns out to be a great movie with awards recognition, that would go a lot more towards improving studio morale than a $150 mil opening weekend.

I get that the situation is not good, I really do, but at the same time if they can't even get the sequel to a seriously beloved classic to do better than the original on its opening weekend then that's a bad look (if not for Pixar, at the very minimum for the situation Disney has put them in). "Atleast it won't flop" shouldn't be the bar for a sequel to freaking Inside Out.

 

Maybe business will pick up in the final weeks and we won't have to discuss this, but like, this should be a slam dunk project in terms of BO prospects at Pixar. If it isn't, then I really am not sure what can be one for them as of right now.

Edited May 24 by JustLurking

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I get that the situation is not good, I really do, but at the same time if they can't even get the sequel to a seriously beloved classic to do better than the original on its opening weekend then that's a bad look (if not for Pixar, at the very minimum for the situation Disney has put them in). "Atleast if won't flop" shouldn't be the bar for a sequel to freaking Inside Out.

They should make copium a new emotion in the third one lmfao

[Liiviig 1998]

80-85m weekend is nothing to scoff at and it can leg comfortably over 300m+ domestic is WOM is strong.

 

That being said it is still inside out sequel and would still be a little dissapointed. 

 

ATSV opened to 120m last year. Yeah it's more a CBM crowd but personally think IO2 has enough pull such a type of opening.

 

But jury is still out on this . Still hoping for 10m previews 110M+ weekend.

 

Happy enough with current tracking. 

 

If this opens below 80m . I would be worried.

[AniNate]

51 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If it isn't, then I really am not sure what can be one for them as of right now.

 

Nothing is. Honestly it's a good thing imo. They can't rest on their laurels anymore, they have to actually earn people's money, as it should be for any filmmaker

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

They should make copium a new emotion in the third one lmfao

 

You never answered my question about what you actually thought the consequences of an $80 mil opening would be here besides just "looking bad". Like do you actually think Pixar would shut down because of that or something? I'm pretty confident I'm a lot more in touch with reality on this than you are.

[Potiki]

19 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

You never answered my question about what you actually thought the consequences of an $80 mil opening would be here besides just "looking bad". Like do you actually think Pixar would shut down because of that or something? I'm pretty confident I'm a lot more in touch with reality on this than you are.

It would be bad for the theatrical industry which has been low on hits at the box office. A sequel usually has weaker legs than an original film so opening ~$10m or so under the first film is not a great start.

 

From a Pixar perspective it would probably be fine as the industry is still down roughly a 1/3rd off 2015-2019 peaks (maybe a little more or less depending on if you are looking at attendance or revenue) so a modest drop from the original wouldn't be the end of the world and would vastly outperform all the other WDAS and Pixar films released so far this decade. 

 

For me I feel this is lowball tracking, although a lot of lowballs have been too optimistic recently, I think this gets over/under $100m and gets to a similar total domestically as the first film (although if word of mouth is that it is equal or better than the original could see it going higher)

 

Edit: deleted repeated word.

Edited May 24 by Potiki

[AniNate]

24 minutes ago, Potiki said:

It would be bad for the theatrical industry which has been low on hits at the box office. A sequel usually has weaker legs than an original film so opening ~$10m or so under the first film is not a great start.

 

HSX is actually the most bullish it's been on this movie now with the latest tracking. I don't know what exactly theaters have been expecting but I'm sure they'll take that kind of opening at this point.

 

Talking about post COVID trends, being a sequel hasn't necessarily been a hamper there as evidenced by Puss 2 and Elemental also just had the best summer legs ever for a Pixar film last year. The original Inside Out also faced a Minions movie opening after it, so if IO2 opens with lower admissions, there's still the possibility for better legs if word of mouth is good enough to get all the skeptics to turn out for it.

 

 

Edited May 24 by AniNate