MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Grebacio]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Is BP2 coming on to Disney+? The +75% friday bump seem soft without major theater cut. 

Febrauary 1st

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Is BP2 coming on to Disney+? The +75% friday bump seem soft without major theater cut. 

Feb the 5th, something like that.

[Shawn Robbins]

Solid weekend shaping up all around, especially compared to MLK last year. The only real disappointment seems to be House Party, and I think everyone saw that coming ten miles away.

 

Still wouldn't rule out 40m+ 4-day for Avatar with how weekend-heavy its run is now trending, but let's see how things go today and tomorrow. 36-37 looks like the low end.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

how many weeks of playoffs do we have going forward?

Four, in total, though the impact on each will be different

 

1/13 = 6 games (2 Sat/3 Sun/1 Mon)

1/20 = 4 games (2 Sat / 2 Sun)

1/27 = 2 games (both Sun)

2/03 = no games (Pro Bowl doesn't count)

2/10 = Super Bowl

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

Wildcard Round this weekend. Divisional Round next weekend. Division Championships the weekend after that then the Super Bowl is February 12th and that will destroy Sunday numbers.

Do we never get situations with movies where people are like 'everyone is going to be watching NFL this weekend, so we will go se A2 then'?, or is it always 100% a given that football will have an effect.

[filmlover]

Good holds for Avatar, M3GAN, and especially Puss in Boots, and solid numbers for both Otto and Plane as well. House Party is the only real misfire this long weekend but that was expected (Deadline is reporting that this and other WB titles previously destined for HBO MAX are on a PVOD after 17 days/HBO Max after 45 days rule so more likely than not similar deals are in place for Magic Mike's Last Dance and Evil Dead Rise as well).

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The director is doing KUNG FU PANDA IV first. Will Dreamworks give him SHREK V as well?

 

KFP4 gone from 0 hype to most hyped 2024 just like that

[kayumanggi]

Just now, Legion in Boots said:

KFP4 gone from 0 hype to most hyped 2024 just like that

 

I expect it to be very strong, to be honest. Pixar's ELIO, which opens just 1 week before, should move.

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, Eric the Plane said:

I think this was not shared already

 

PLANE (2023)

 

Nothing for House Party weirdly enough. I guess that says something?

Not wide enough by 100 theaters 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Do we never get situations with movies where people are like 'everyone is going to be watching NFL this weekend, so we will go se A2 then'?, or is it always 100% a given that football will have an effect.

 

It's a given. Football is god in America. Some people will do what you're mentioning but it'll be a minuscule proportion at this point. 

[Joyous Legion]

What if I told you that puss will leg not just better than Jumanji but in fact better than Showman from here 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[stuart360]

Well the UK is going to have another great hold i feel. My multiplex is just as packed as last weekend, and there is only one less showing per day this weekend than last.

 

This could be the weekend where international finally breaks the 70/30 split it has with domestic all through its run so far.

[M37]

 

4 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

It's a given. Football is god in America. Some people will do what you're mentioning but it'll be a minuscule proportion at this point. 

I don't know about counter-programming being minuscule; its not an accident that Titanic is re-releasing on Super Bowl weekend for example (not the only reason mind you), and why family movies tend to see less of an impact vs NFL than other titles

 

 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

What if I told you that puss will leg not just better than Jumanji but in fact better than Showman from here 

 

I would definitely take that bet vs Showman, since I'll remind you it legged out better than OG Avatar, 3.64x vs 3.51x from this weekend

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

I don't know about counter-programming being minuscule; its not an accident that Titanic is re-releasing on Super Bowl weekend for example (not the only reason mind you), and why family movies tend to see less of an impact vs NFL than other titles

 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

I would definitely take that bet vs Showman, since I'll remind you it legged out better than OG Avatar, 3.64x vs 3.51x from this weekend

OG Avatar who 😏

 

Gotta whip up some cume graphs and rolling 7day graphs normalized by week 2 or so, see what we see. WttJ vs TGS vs A1 vs… who else?

Edited January 14, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[DAJK]

Lol my friend who manages a movie theatre sent me a snapchat last night telling a story.

 

One of the staff members called her on the radio saying: "Hey could you come downstairs? There's a fight happening?"

"Where?"

"Theatre 19."

 

Fights are common enough. You get a PG-13 horror movie, and the rowdy teenagers are always scrapping. You know what movie they have playing in theatre 19?

 

Spoiler

A Man Called Otto

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Just now, DAJK said:

Lol my friend who manages a movie theatre sent me a snapchat last night telling a story.

 

One of the staff members called her on the radio saying: "Hey could you come downstairs? There's a fight happening?"

"Where?"

"Theatre 19."

 

Fights are common enough. You get a PG-13 horror movie, and the rowdy teenagers are always scrapping. You know what movie they have playing in theatre 19?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

A Man Called Otto

 

Spoiler

 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lol my friend who manages a movie theatre sent me a snapchat last night telling a story.

 

One of the staff members called her on the radio saying: "Hey could you come downstairs? There's a fight happening?"

"Where?"

"Theatre 19."

 

Fights are common enough. You get a PG-13 horror movie, and the rowdy teenagers are always scrapping. You know what movie they have playing in theatre 19?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

A Man Called Otto

 

Now you gotta tell us what the fight was about

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

OG Avatar who 😏

 

Gotta whip up some cume graphs and rolling 7day graphs normalized by week 2 or so, see what we see. WttJ vs TGS vs A1 vs… who else?

Use week 3, the NY’s week 😉

 

Also FOTR, Titanic (just for lol), and NWH. Maybe throw in some Sing’s or Chipmunks. Not a big list at that level 

 

Edit: actually, to do this right, should use the holidays, 12/25 through some common end point, 1/01 or 1/07 (14 days). Would help balance out the starting value between the Fri and Wed openers and differing calendars 

Edited January 14, 2023 by M37