Weekdays Thread | April 24 - 27 | Thursday Numbers | 2.97M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.59M EVIL DEAD RISE

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Shawn Robbins]

22 hours ago, Shawn said:

It's a tricky one.

 

The ranges have been pretty wide, and I even lowered the pinpoint final forecast today just to be cautious (better to be low than high -- even though it could still be too high). That said, presales aren't *that* bad in the modeling I've seen. I'm curious to hear what comps are being used here to determine presales are low because there aren't many direct correlations for this kind of film, IMO.

 

Sales in the nationwide sampling I've seen are similar to The Woman King and ahead of Missing. Both point to $1M+ from previews, with Missing especially being a consistent comp for the past week. Friday and weekend business are healthier than Thursday alone might indicate if anyone is looking at a more front-loaded comp for Thursday (and/or not accounting for early access shows deflating Thursday).

 

On the flip side, Thu comps to Ticket to Paradise are more conservative ($~500K+), so I imagine that's where some of the sub-$10M concern comes from. The pace has picked up throughout the week, but not enough to match those other comp paces.

 

It's going to be a very walk-up dependent movie, so there is some projection for that to happen (especially with the strong reviews). If that doesn't though, I wouldn't rule out a number under $10 million.

 

I also just haven't had as much time to focus on this particular weekend while prepping May and June tracking reports. (Also one reason I deviated from long range forecasts on Evil Dead Rise, which ended up being accurate before going too cautious week-of.) 🙄

 

We'll see how it goes.

Some follow-up thoughts/analysis here:

 

 

[kayumanggi]

Deadline:

 

Meanwhile, Illumination/Universal/Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros Movie, made $2.97M to lead Thursday box office, -1% from Wednesday, for a third week of $73M and running total of $450M. Weekend four is expected to be in the $30M range. Through 23 days, Super Mario Bros is pacing 9% behind Incredibles 2 at the same point in time. That doesn’t mean it can’t catch up.

 

New Line’s Evil Dead Rise made $1.59M yesterday, -5% from Wednesday for a week’s gross of $32.2M. Weekend 2, estimated to decline -60% like most horror pics do, will be around $9.8M.

 

Other highlights among the top five at the Thursday box office: Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 4 finally became the top grossing installment in the franchise stateside with $171.5M, besting John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum’s $171M. Fourthquel’s fifth Thursday was $500K, -2% from Wednesday for an $8M week.

 

MGM’s Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant at 2,611 saw a $457K Thursday, -4% from Wednesday for a first week of $8.67M.

 

Amazon’s Air at 2,823 theaters made $395K yesterday, -9%, for a third week of $7.3M, total gross of $43.6M.

Edited April 28, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Krissykins]

I actually think Evil Dead Rise could avoid a 60% drop with that Thursday number. 

[screambaby]

I mean I'm not expecting alot from it but ROTJ did outsell everything not named Mario this week? Why is it not even on the radar?

[keysersoze123]

LOL at Deadline saying 30m for Mario. I am thinking upper 30s but not 40m. 

[screambaby]

Deadline preview numbers 

Margaret 600,000

Sizu 585000

Foreman 250000

 

Lame...can't imagine Rotj is not in top 5 this weekend even with no previews and a smaller theatre count...

Edited April 28, 2023 by screambaby

[kayumanggi]