Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

It'll get nommed but no chance it wins against Miyazaki and Spider-verse

Yeah, not even if it was a box office juggernaut would it stand a chance there. 

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I’ve mentioned before, I think Elemental needs to do something extreme in terms of legs before we can talk about saving any real face for the brand. It’s so far down in the hole, almost no way for it to climb to profitable and I’m not convinced any kind of 4x multi means people think it’s top tier Pixar or anything.
 

Definitely don’t get that sense, and how could it not majorly course correct with 29m OW? It’s absurd how abysmal that really is for summer Pixar. Again, show me like 6x+ before we can say the movie maybe did anything to help the brand. We basically need the summer version of PiB run for that. 

It’s running on extremely good WOM and it’s a Pixar original. For what the market has become for animation, I see this as an absolute win. Why? Super Mario Bros isn’t really an Illumination win than an actual Nintendo one, Sony’s Across the Spider-Verse? Based on Marvel characters which are owned by Disney and they can fully capitalize on that with merch anyway Disney wants it to. It’s a brand new IP, a brand new story not dependent of former Pixar successes. After Turning Red (which I’d argue it’s more heartbreaking than Lightyear, since that at least likely actually ended up making money because Toy Story merch is likely evergreen), I see this as an win.

[tonytr87]

Can somebody explain to me why movies with sub-20 mil openings and not-at-all-bad WOM are experiencing 50% drops in their second weekend? Just doesn't make sense that stuff like Asteroid City & No Hard Feelings would be frontloaded at all. 

[LegionWrex]

6 minutes ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Yeah, it’s still really bad for a Pixar movie. If it blows up on Disney+ or wins the Best Animated Feature Oscar it might save face. 

I can see it doing very well on Disney+ but Animated Feature is pretty much out of the question, Spider-Verse and Miyazaki are basically locked to win unless Wish is somehow the second coming of Christ. It will get nominated though I think, and if it does get nominated a Score nomination is likely to come along with it (name check nomination for Thomas Newman, he got nominated for Passengers for god's sake).

[tonytr87]

Just now, LegionWrex said:

I can see it doing very well on Disney+ but Animated Feature is pretty much out of the question, Spider-Verse and Miyazaki are basically locked to win unless Wish is somehow the second coming of Christ. It will get nominated though I think, and if it does get nominated a Score nomination is likely to come along with it (name check nomination for Thomas Newman, he got nominated for Passengers for god's sake).

 

Elemental is a good step for Pixar. Even if it's still not enough given the high budget (a trend this summer), Pixar is going to have to rebuild just like the theatrical business overall had to rebuild (and is still rebuilding). 

[MikeQ]

With the studio estimates into Monday, Guardians Vol. 3 sits at $355.28M and has hit a 3+ multiplier.

 

It's only the third live action CBM sequel in the 21st century to achieve this feat, along with The Dark Knight and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Pretty awesome.

 

Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers:

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

1. Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20)
2. Aquaman (2018) — 67.9 million (4.94)
3. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
4. Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
6. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
7. Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49)
8. Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49)
9. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)
10. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
11. MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28)
12. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
13. Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15)
14. Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 260.1 million (3.09)
15. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023) — 118.4 million (3.00)^
16. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00)

^Run still ongoing

Peace,

Mike

Edited July 3, 2023 by MikeQ

[AniNate]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I’ve mentioned before, I think Elemental needs to do something extreme in terms of legs before we can talk about saving any real face for the brand. It’s so far down in the hole, almost no way for it to climb to profitable and I’m not convinced any kind of 4x multi means people think it’s top tier Pixar or anything.
 

Definitely don’t get that sense, and how could it not majorly course correct with 29m OW? It’s absurd how abysmal that really is for summer Pixar. Again, show me like 6x+ before we can say the movie maybe did anything to help the brand. We basically need the summer version of PiB run for that. 

 

I think challenging Nemo legs counts as extreme.

 

Yeah it had a terrible opening but it's going to blow away Lightyear's worldwide total and likely The Good Dinosaur's as well. I do think a positive audience reception goes a long way towards improving studio morale in the aftermath of a disappointing opening weekend even if the movie still ends up a flop (which I'm not sure is even a 100% certainty for this movie anymore), and I think that goes for most films, not just Pixar. You can't convince me that all the people buying up tickets in Korea just think the movie's "ok"

Edited July 3, 2023 by AniNate

[CJohn]

57 minutes ago, AJG said:

RIP. Netflix won 

 

 

 

 

People are done with this theatrical shit. I am certainly tired of dealing with loud raunchy groups and phones always on when I can see things in my couch.

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Can somebody explain to me why movies with sub-20 mil openings and not-at-all-bad WOM are experiencing 50% drops in their second weekend? Just doesn't make sense that stuff like Asteroid City & No Hard Feelings would be frontloaded at all. 

It's closer to a 40% drop without previews

[abracadabra1998]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People are done with this theatrical shit. I am certainly tired of dealing with loud raunchy groups and phones always on when I can see things in my couch.

Where the fuck are people watching these movies

 

Like every Reddit thread about theaters people are bashing them and complaining about people being on phones, talking loudly, getting up and doing some outlandish shit. Like damn I go to the movies once a week and rarely experience any of that

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I’ve mentioned before, I think Elemental needs to do something extreme in terms of legs before we can talk about saving any real face for the brand. It’s so far down in the hole, almost no way for it to climb to profitable and I’m not convinced any kind of 4x multi means people think it’s top tier Pixar or anything.
 

Definitely don’t get that sense, and how could it not majorly course correct with 29m OW? It’s absurd how abysmal that really is for summer Pixar. Again, show me like 6x+ before we can say the movie maybe did anything to help the brand. We basically need the summer version of PiB run for that. 

Nothing of this makes any sense. First, Elemental is heading to around 5x multiplier, not 4x … and it’s about to challenge Nemo legs and have the best run of any Pixar movie in 2 decades. So let’s stop trying to pretend this is not something that should be celebrated. 
 

Second, there’s no such thing as “course correction” only to explain ~5x multiplier.
We see many movies opening very low and that doesn’t mean they will have great legs. 
 

Nobody here is saying the movie is top tier Pixar, and it doesn’t need to be. Part of Pixar problem is exactly this idea that everything they drop must be revolutionary. The fact that they made just a simple good movie and people liked it enough to hold on theaters for many weeks is great for them. 
 

And while of course 400M WW (which is more likely than not atp) isn’t save the face of a 200M budget, do you know the last original animated movie that reach this milestone? Coco in 2017. 
 

So yeah, it’s not saving the face of this particular movie, but it’s definitely a step on the right direction, one very much needed for the whole animation industry that has been struggling even before pandemic. 
 

Elemental doing 400M isn’t turn it into a profitable movie, but is showing there’s still space and hope for the future original animated movies to go even beyond this. 
 

Expecting 1 movie to reverse a bad trend of an entire industry and save the damage caused to a brand in the course of years is honestly delusional. It’s doing great for what it is, the begin of a comeback.

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, 21C said:

Caught up on this thread and did I really just see an argument over RT Audience Score being more reliable than Cinemascore or PostTrak? Holy shit.

I mean if there's anything The Flash, Shazam 2, Black Adam and Indy have shown us, is that RT Audience Scores are borderline useless. The people logging in to take a picture of their ticket and write a review on RT are not representative of the general audience at all; it's a very specific segment of the population that you can barely take into account. If it's borderline perfect or if it's bad then maybe.

The RT Audience Score is populated by people that either were already predetermined to love a film, or predetermined to hate it, with significantly more of the former. So the odds of getting actually good info out of it is small. 

And that’s different than CinemaScore and PostTrak how, exactly? The way I see it, the fact that RT Verified Audience shows a bigger sample - while still very much flawed like the other options to gauge that - at very least gives it a veneer of legitimacy. It’s not perfect, in fact I’m a big believer that it’s a botched system, the lot of them. I’m just saying that RT Verified Audience score seems more reliable due its bigger sample size.

 

Also, I found this particular exchange on Twitter earlier that I feel it’s good food for thought:

 

I hear that Dial of Destiny might be in the business of setting up Indiana Jones spin offs. Sort of like there were talks about an X-23 spin off from Wolverine but that never went anywhere, I’d imagine. 
 

I just can’t see Dial of Destiny as yet another cynical film in a franchise, do you know what I mean? I don’t think it’s fair to compare with The Flash like it’s been done to death here and on social media because Dial of Destiny isn’t in the business of making a new Indiana Jones film three years from now, I’d imagine. It isn’t in the business of actually creating an Indy universe, despite rumblings of being open to it. It’s actual Indy’s last adventure. That counts for something, and I say this as someone that absolutely loves the MCU, the Star Wars universe and can’t wait to fall in love with the DCU that James Gunn is cooking.

 

And before anyone cynically point out to me that on a box office message board talking about it’s box office and budget it’s the point, let me say, I agree. But something about the way that people are talking about this film makes me think that eventually, this film will find its audience. And it’s very rare in franchises to have a film that it’s okay to think like that, but with this one being the last, I think it’s fine. Ford was on two Blade Runners that bombed too, after all.

[Bob Train]

Last year, the second weekend of July had a total gross of 240 million. 

 

This year, the second weekend of July will probably end under 100 million, in the peak of Summer.

 

Theaters are dead and buried. Start the funeral already.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Bob Train

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nothing of this makes any sense. First, Elemental is heading to around 5x multiplier, not 4x … and it’s about to challenge Nemo legs and have the best run of any Pixar movie in 2 decades. So let’s stop trying to pretend this is not something that should be celebrated. 
 

Second, there’s no such thing as “course correction” only to explain ~5x multiplier.
We see many movies opening very low and that doesn’t mean they will have great legs. 
 

Nobody here is saying the movie is top tier Pixar, and it doesn’t need to be. Part of Pixar problem is exactly this idea that everything they drop must be revolutionary. The fact that they made just a simple good movie and people liked it enough to hold on theaters for many weeks is great for them. 
 

And while of course 400M WW (which is more likely than not atp) isn’t save the face of a 200M budget, do you know the last original animated movie that reach this milestone? Coco in 2017. 
 

So yeah, it’s not saving the face of this particular movie, but it’s definitely a step on the right direction, one very much needed for the whole animation industry that has been struggling even before pandemic. 
 

Elemental doing 400M isn’t turn it into a profitable movie, but is showing there’s still space and hope for the future original animated movies to go even beyond this. 
 

Expecting 1 movie to reverse a bad trend of an entire industry and save the damage caused to a brand in the course of years is honestly delusional. It’s doing great for what it is, the begin of a comeback.

400m would also make it on par with Sing 2, and only being behind Mario, Across, Minions and Puss, as fifth biggest post pandemic animation.

[tonytr87]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Where the fuck are people watching these movies

 

Like every Reddit thread about theaters people are bashing them and complaining about people being on phones, talking loudly, getting up and doing some outlandish shit. Like damn I go to the movies once a week and rarely experience any of that

 

They're either making it up or they live far from major cities where etiquette could be worse I suppose. But I'm with you, I go once sometimes twice a week and rarely experience any issues. When I do it's during an animated flick because obviously kids are more unruly. 

[tonytr87]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People are done with this theatrical shit. I am certainly tired of dealing with loud raunchy groups and phones always on when I can see things in my couch.

 

Where the fuck do you live?

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Where the fuck are people watching these movies

 

Like every Reddit thread about theaters people are bashing them and complaining about people being on phones, talking loudly, getting up and doing some outlandish shit. Like damn I go to the movies once a week and rarely experience any of that

Every time I see a movie in a big weekend/primetime show I get teens making noises, talking a lot or mocking the movie itself or groups/couples on their phines (I saw A Man Called Otto in a sold out 6 PM show and a bunch of teens were laughing in the wrong places and in an annoying way because they didnt think the movie was funny because everyone else was laughing at the jokes of the movie, I saw the Flash and Asteroid City in 8-9 PM shows and there were people on their phones the entire damn movie). The theatrical experience is dead. People don't wanna be 2-3 hours in silence looking at a screen.

 

EDIT: And I live in a big city. People don't care.

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

400m would also make it on par with Sing 2, and only being behind Mario, Across, Minions and Puss, as fifth biggest post pandemic animation.

Also would be easily the biggest original animation since the pandemic, and the biggest original animation in I don't know how long.

[LegionWrex]

3 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

They're either making it up or they live far from major cities where etiquette could be worse I suppose. But I'm with you, I go once sometimes twice a week and rarely experience any issues. When I do it's during an animated flick because obviously kids are more unruly. 

I've had my bad share of experiences going to the theater but it's not nearly as common as some people would have you believe.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

400m would also make it on par with Sing 2, and only being behind Mario, Across, Minions and Puss, as fifth biggest post pandemic animation.

Indeed. Is very easy to just see the raw numbers and trash it but as people who cares about detailed box office runs, we should know better about context before making statements about the run of a movie not being special. 
 

The numbers themselves sure aren’t special, but the run in this context is definitely worthy of celebration. 
 

5 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

Also would be easily the biggest original animation since the pandemic, and the biggest original animation in I don't know how long.

Since Coco in 2017. Things has been really dire since that, sadly.

 

I really hope DIS see how Elemental is behaving and choose a better date for Elio, that looks very promising and could thrive without competition now that Pixar finally have a good run in theaters after years.