Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[robertman2]

My sister and cousin were talking about trying to tickets to this during a family gathering. Gonna have a big OW for sure lol

 

Is this AMC only?

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

My sister and cousin were talking about trying to tickets to this during a family gathering. Gonna have a big OW for sure lol

 

Is this AMC only?

 

Nope. AMC is the main distributor but any theater that agrees to terms can have it. All the major/mid-major ones already do. 

[eman92]

I'm kind of surprised that basically every movie studio got spooked by this movie and decided to move their releases. We just had Barbie come out where it made 150M+ and we were still able to have an 80M+ opening with Oppenheimer, and basically every other major release that week did sub 50% drops besides Mission Impossible which probably had more to do with the film in general since it didn't premiere too well OW and losing PLF. 

 

I'm guessing this will make 150-175M OW potentially. 

 

I'm curious how Saw X, Exorcist and The Creator will do the week the Taylor Swift movie comes out. Will they have crushing drops, or will they actually not drop that badly because it'll be good counter programing to Taylor Swift. I could see Paw Patrol not doing well because I'm sure families will go see Taylor Swift, but basically anyone who is not a Swiftie who wants to see a movie will have veryyyy limited options on what they can see. And I don't see theaters dropping these films completely because they need programing for Monday-Wednesday and Thursday matinee. Makes me think maybe these films will have higher than normal weekday numbers potentially with basically very few releases coming out within 2 weeks of Taylor's release and no new releases that weekend besides Taylor

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, eman92 said:

I'm kind of surprised that basically every movie studio got spooked by this movie and decided to move their releases. We just had Barbie come out where it made 150M+ and we were still able to have an 80M+ opening with Oppenheimer, and basically every other major release that week did sub 50% drops besides Mission Impossible which probably had more to do with the film in general since it didn't premiere too well OW and losing PLF. 

 

I'm guessing this will make 150-175M OW potentially. 

 

I'm curious how Saw X, Exorcist and The Creator will do the week the Taylor Swift movie comes out. Will they have crushing drops, or will they actually not drop that badly because it'll be good counter programing to Taylor Swift. I could see Paw Patrol not doing well because I'm sure families will go see Taylor Swift, but basically anyone who is not a Swiftie who wants to see a movie will have veryyyy limited options on what they can see. And I don't see theaters dropping these films completely because they need programing for Monday-Wednesday and Thursday matinee. Makes me think maybe these films will have higher than normal weekday numbers potentially with basically very few releases coming out within 2 weeks of Taylor's release and no new releases that weekend besides Taylor

There isn't much to wonder about Saw X at that point, with or without Taylor it'll be under 5m that weekend regardless. 

[Spidey Freak]

11 hours ago, eman92 said:

I'm kind of surprised that basically every movie studio got spooked by this movie and decided to move their releases. We just had Barbie come out where it made 150M+ and we were still able to have an 80M+ opening with Oppenheimer, and basically every other major release that week did sub 50% drops besides Mission Impossible which probably had more to do with the film in general since it didn't premiere too well OW and losing PLF. 

 

Yeah well none of those films are the Oppenheimer to Taylor's Barbie so they knew well enough to scram.

 

Also don't get why you think MI7 wasn't affected by Barbenheimer when it posted great reviews and was coming off the highest grossing and most well-received entry in the franchise 

[vale9001]

the exorcist shouldn't have run away....apparently universal thinks it's better a news about opening at #1 with 40M and not number two with 45M (yeah i think 13th october was better cause nearest to Halloween and in a "week event" with the eras tour).

 

for the meg ryan comedy i can understand more...it's a rom com and directed by a woman (ryan herself). So probably their plane was to sell it like "a night with  your friends" movie for females against an horror movie. 

 

If you have another "a night with your friends" movie for females can open with over 100M you can lose all the attention. Probably the movie wouldn't even have the same audience, cause for a meg ryan movie I can see an audience of over 50 women, but you lose attention and promo on media so your core audience can not hear about the movie coming.

 

 

 

[shadowcaptainD]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

the exorcist shouldn't have run away....apparently universal thinks it's better a news about opening at #1 with 40M and not number two with 45M (yeah i think 13th october was better cause nearest to Halloween and in a "week event" with the eras tour).

 

for the meg ryan comedy i can understand more...it's a rom com and directed by a woman (ryan herself). So probably their plane was to sell it like "a night with  your friends" movie for females against an horror movie. 

 

If you have another "a night with your friends" movie for females can open with over 100M you can lose all the attention. Probably the movie wouldn't even have the same audience, cause for a meg ryan movie I can see an audience of over 50 women, but you lose attention and promo on media so your core audience can not hear about the movie coming.

 

 

 

Think the issue is they think eras tour isnt going to be a female movie. from the insane initial sales, they probably think its gonna be a 4 quadrant/event type movie

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, shadowcaptainD said:

Think the issue is they think eras tour isnt going to be a female movie. from the insane initial sales, they probably think its gonna be a 4 quadrant/event type movie

 

 

well female driven movies can have "insane" initiale sales too. Imo will be really female, like 70-75%. Seems like perfect movie for a girls night more than with families or with your boyfriend-girlfriend.

Then i can be wrong. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by vale9001

[WorkingonaName]

Really gonna be October 2014 again with Taylor swift and FNAF dominating. 

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

well female driven movies can have "insane" initiale sales too. Imo will be really female, like 70-75%. Seems like perfect movie for a girls night more than with families or with your boyfriend-girlfriend.

Then i can be wrong. 

 

I would expect similar splits to the Barbie movie. 

[vale9001]

On Reddit 3-4 years ago there was a rumour about Rita Wilson (Tom Hanks wife and producer of mamma mia movies) being interested in Taylor music catalog for a movie.

Probably the thing didn't work for her problems with her old label about her music rights. Some people wrote posts ago about "hollywood calling taylor if this movie is huge". Imo the most ideal thing if i was a producer would be a juke box musical with her music. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by vale9001

[vale9001]

Now industry predicts 100-150M range, up from 70M

 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/taylor-swift-eras-tour-movie-1235581725/

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by vale9001

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

19 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Now industry predicts 100-150M range, up from 70M

 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/taylor-swift-eras-tour-movie-1235581725/

 

just insane 

[vale9001]

errata corridge: accounts reported the HR article as 100-150M opening. Actualy they wote about 100M opening and 150M final.

With that opening doesn't seems a fair prediction (pre sales for the next weeks are already good) but of course this is really unpredictable so they play really safe. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by vale9001

[harry713]

190/425 DOM

[SpiderByte]

34 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

errata corridge: accounts reported the HR article as 100-150M opening. Actualy they wote about 100M opening and 150M final.

With that opening doesn't seems a fair prediction (pre sales for the next weeks are already good) but of course this is really unpredictable so they play really safe. 

It'd fit the pattern for these kinds of things. Big opening, reasonably good second week, and then crater.

[harry713]

For only having shows starting at 6pm on Friday, it looks like most theaters now have showings every 30 mins through 11pm. That's 11 shows per theater for Friday. I don't think the Friday number will suffer much from lack of matinees.  

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

THR prediction doesn't make sense imo how could it only gross 150m with a 100m opening. if it does actually open with 100m i can see it grossing for as far as 300m 

[XXR vs XXR]

44 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

It'd fit the pattern for these kinds of things. Big opening, reasonably good second week, and then crater.

There’s no pattern that fits a 1.5x multiplier. 

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

There’s no pattern that fits a 1.5x multiplier. 

150m OW

45m 2nd wknd

20m 3rd wknd

10m 4th wknd

 

That would be a 1.5x multiplier, but I don't think it will get *that* low. It could have a sub 2x multiplier because  the fans will show up on OW and it won't have any weekdays (except for some Thursday showings).

 

If you remove all the money TLM made on weekdays it would have had a $96m OW and ended around $190m, which is a sub 2x. And that movie didn't have fan rush to the extent this will have.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Bob Train