NEW YEAR weekend

[rehpyc]

This year’s slate relatively matching last year’s in gross was a better situation for cinemas. Avatar’s much higher ATP driving things last year means far more admissions this year to make things match up in revenue, which provided cinemas more butts in seats for concession sales. However, the lack of holdover demand into this new year compared to Avatar will be painful.

[Alexander]

39 minutes ago, dallas said:

All this doomposting is so dumb. Half the movies everyone expected to carry the box office this year flopped or were disappointments, yet we still hit $9B. The box office will survive as it always has. 

9B in 2023 translates to something like 6.5B in late 2010s when domestic market generated 11-12B.

[MovieMan89]

It’s not just the lack of strong holdovers into the new year either. Most Jan/Feb have been producing big new releases of their own for the last decade or so as well. Definitely not the case this year. 

[AniNate]

43 minutes ago, Alexander said:

9B in 2023 translates to something like 6.5B in late 2010s when domestic market generated 11-12B.

 

I don't care about the late 2010s. We're still in pandemic recovery and it's better than last year's take.

[AniNate]

39 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s not just the lack of strong holdovers into the new year either. Most Jan/Feb have been producing big new releases of their own for the last decade or so as well. Definitely not the case this year. 

 

You don't know that. Mean Girls could very well break out like M3gan did last year. Heck, Night Swim definitely making a name for itself in promotion.

 

And personally I have some hope for the Bob Marley biopic and perhaps Argylle as well could draw an audience through sheer promotional willpower.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

You don't know that. Mean Girls could very well break out like M3gan did last year. Heck, Night Swim definitely making a name for itself in promotion.

 

And personally I have some hope for the Bob Marley biopic and perhaps Argylle as well could draw an audience through sheer promotional willpower.

I think a “breakout” for any of those would be like 80m tops. Thats not what I’m talking about when I say Jan/Feb usually still give us new hits in the modern era. 

[Alexander]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I don't care about the late 2010s. We're still in pandemic recovery and it's better than last year's take.

I think this is the new normal.

 

Ticket sales were dropping since what? Early/mid 00s? Despite US population growing from 290M to 340M. Then Disney totally overperformed in 2010s but every other studio was generating less and less money from domestic market.

 

Those trends were already there but what would normally happened over maybe 6-7 years it eventually only needed 2 because of covid.

[AniNate]

If it's the new normal, I'll accept that when it's clear. But I don't think the trend is irreversible, there is still interest in the theatrical experience as a concept and everyone is realizing there is a limit to just how much streaming can imitate it.

 

I will say in 2018, we got pretty close to the inflation adjusted gold standard of 2002-2004. only off by about 93% from 2002 based on CPI. Shouldn't be understated just how big the trifecta of Black Panther, Avengers, and Incredibles was.

 

 

Edited January 2 by AniNate

[Kon]

One question, do you know the audience demographics for The Boys in the Boat?

 

I've read people calling it a movie for dads, but I've understood the main audience is women.

Edited January 2 by Kon

[MovieMan89]

Things looked more up for theaters in 2018 and 2019 right before Covid than I would have ever expected by that point. Not far from a 21st century high. One extreme to the other. 
 

Granted it was almost entirely thanks to Disney’s absurd success both of those years, so now that they’re in the gutter I suppose it does make a lot of sense theatergoing overall would be as well. The perils of one studio carrying so hard 

Edited January 2 by MovieMan89

[rehpyc]

Disney really helped prop up the industry at large during the late pre-COVID years. The pandemic not only brought about streaming, which is very evident that it changed consumer habits in how movies were consumed, but it also simply changed consumer habits with entertainment as a whole. Admissions have always been on the decline, with the pandemic/streaming just kicking that ahead by several years. The consumer base that leans into the IMAX/PLF/4DX/VIP has grown considerably compared to pre-pandemic, too.

 

Sadly, cinema chains will be largely conserving cash throughout this next year, but I'd expect some considerable investments in the future years, expanding to multiple IMAX, PLF, and 4DX screens per location (AMC already has 2 PLF offerings, many at the same location, and Cinemark has already been expanding to 2 XDs per location). Chains will also lean more into recliners and dine-in, if they haven't already been on this path in investment already.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Times changed. New era. New game. New rules. Eons ago, audiences were more forgiving regarding ok / fine / mediocre / bad movies.

 

We had a pandemic, ticket prices are insanely high in a lot of places / countries, inflation is high, everything is expensive , audiences are less forgiving now. Movies can't be just ok/fine/cool/watchable anymore. Studios have to make movies that are gems, arts and justify people leaving their homes to watch them. At least, that's the message I'm getting.

 

 

[John Marston]

so Ferrari apparently cost 90-100m. Hollywood has a budget problem and not just with the big special effects movies

[rehpyc]

The theatrical year still has through this Thursday to go, but just to put some things in perspective of this year's recovery compared to last year. Barbenheimer really helped give a morphine shot mid-year, just treading water and slowly heading back down since.

 

[Wandavisionlover0924]

Before getting into box office scores, I didn't not know how little money studios made off of movies after costs. Like when you see movies make hundrends of millions of dollars you expect more profit than you put it. There is no reason why a movie is spending almost 350 for production + marketing and making less than 200M in revenue 

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Before getting into box office scores, I didn't not know how little money studios made off of movies after costs. Like when you see movies make hundrends of millions of dollars you expect more profit than you put it. There is no reason why a movie is spending almost 350 for production + marketing and making less than 200M in revenue 

Back when home video and satellite rights were still a big deal, it made sense. Home video is pretty much non-existent and streaming isn't making up the shortfall. Similarly, TV rights have been declining every year because first run movies being telecast on TV isn't an event anymore.

 

Most things we think of as issues facing the theatrical movies can be traced to Home Video sales dying and a lot of OS markets expanding. That meant that only movies which can earn a profit theatrically between domestic and OS are the only ones which get made i.e. no comedies, adult dramas etc which have no OS pull are hard to get greenlit and instead movies tend to go towards spectacle with simple conflicts and resolutions which don't require too much to explain things to an OS audience member 

[AniNate]

11 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Before getting into box office scores, I didn't not know how little money studios made off of movies after costs. Like when you see movies make hundrends of millions of dollars you expect more profit than you put it. There is no reason why a movie is spending almost 350 for production + marketing and making less than 200M in revenue 

 

The numbers that are publicly reported aren't always the real ones. Studios have all kinds of motivations for either inflating a movie's costs or downplaying them. I don't believe the profit margins are as thin as studios would have you believe, otherwise the mainstream film industry would've shuttered a long time ago.

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Back when home video and satellite rights were still a big deal, it made sense. Home video is pretty much non-existent and streaming isn't making up the shortfall. Similarly, TV rights have been declining every year because first run movies being telecast on TV isn't an event anymore.

 

Most things we think of as issues facing the theatrical movies can be traced to Home Video sales dying and a lot of OS markets expanding. That meant that only movies which can earn a profit theatrically between domestic and OS are the only ones which get made i.e. no comedies, adult dramas etc which have no OS pull are hard to get greenlit and instead movies tend to go towards spectacle with simple conflicts and resolutions which don't require too much to explain things to an OS audience member 

 

I assume the "simple conflicts and resolutions which don't require too much to explain things to an OS audience member" idea is related to the language in some countries.

 

However, the English speaking countries shouldn't have this issue, but even other languages tend to have pretty acceptable dubs (at least, good enough that the movies conflict and message could be understood).

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Disney really helped prop up the industry at large during the late pre-COVID years. The pandemic not only brought about streaming, which is very evident that it changed consumer habits in how movies were consumed, but it also simply changed consumer habits with entertainment as a whole. Admissions have always been on the decline, with the pandemic/streaming just kicking that ahead by several years. The consumer base that leans into the IMAX/PLF/4DX/VIP has grown considerably compared to pre-pandemic, too.

 

Sadly, cinema chains will be largely conserving cash throughout this next year, but I'd expect some considerable investments in the future years, expanding to multiple IMAX, PLF, and 4DX screens per location (AMC already has 2 PLF offerings, many at the same location, and Cinemark has already been expanding to 2 XDs per location). Chains will also lean more into recliners and dine-in, if they haven't already been on this path in investment already.

It’s just that admissions were actually on an upswing at the end of last decade, but yes it was absolutely propped up by Disney. 

[AniNate]

I think it's as much true of the US as it is any other country that there are certain specifically American kinds of themes and stories that people abroad just can't relate to as much. Even with British cinema there's only a small fraction of it that actually gets exported for wide US release, and just like with foreign language films it's typically just the critically acclaimed cream of the crop.

 

 

Edited January 2 by AniNate