WEEKEND THREAD | Wonka 14.4, Night Swim 12, Aqua 10.6, Migration 10.2, Anyone But You 9.5 (increased from last weekend!)

[Krissykins]

59 minutes ago, Mulder said:

...No that's not how it works. Theaters get more of the profits as it goes on. Studios get most of their profits from opening weekend. Theaters like leggy films because they get more profit from them. And 300 million wouldn't be 3x its production+marketing budget, it'd be 2x. Marketing being excluded from film budgets is Hollywood financing trickery, there's a reason why the rule of thumb is to triple the production budget because that's how you account for the subtracted marketing budget.

The rule of thumb has actually always been to at least double the production budget, not triple. 
 

Does anyone remember back when BOM actually had the marketing spend estimate listed underneath the budget for some films? It didn’t last long. 

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

The rule of thumb has actually always been to at least double the production budget, not triple. 
 

Does anyone remember back when BOM actually had the marketing spend estimate listed underneath the budget for some films? It didn’t last long. 

People've been using triple for a while now. Double got retired by like end of 2010s.

[SchumacherFTW]

I'll just stick with whatever Dan Murrell suggests, that sliding scale seems to make the most sense

[Eric Loves Rey]

I generally follow what Deadline and the trades say when it comes to a movie's breakeven point, since they know more than we do, but I'm generally under this idea:

 

2x-2.5x the production budget: Might be profitable, dependent on ancillaries

 

2.5x-3x the production budget: Likely profitable, especially when ancillaries are involved

 

3x the production budget: For sure profitable.

 

And I know people will bring up marketing budget, but considering how marketing budgets typically cost the same, if not more than the production budget, then that generally means that like...20% of movies are actually successful on theatrical alone. And 9 times out of 9, the only time people bring up marketing budgets is just so people can be negative and either downplay a movie's success or make a film seem like an even bigger failure. Eric no likey.