Moana 2 | November 27, 2024

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Eric Lasagna said:

Disney's got such a weird thing going on where they just keep the same release dates for everything. Which like in the 2018 was reasonable, but they are way more vulnerable to competition now. Elemental got a lucky break where everything surrounding it ended up bombing, but Moana's probably not looking likely, at least at the moment. And either way, having it out in early November, getting IMAX and all of Dolby to itself, makes way more sense box office wise, especially since you should still get a good Thanksgiving hold. But I guess Disney's too stubborn or stupid to do it? It's dumb!

yeah that's what I keep saying. Disney doesn't blink. They'll always always want the Father's Day weekend slot, and the Thanksgiving slot.

 

the March slot can be somewhat flexible though.

 

As for Elemental, its release date was just fine. Dunno if you'd want it in July or something. And August is out of the question.

 

The only time in the recent past where I see Disney strayed from the Father's Day slot was 2019 with Toy Story 4... not sure why that happened. Did they want to avoid the Men in Black movie or SLOP 2's second weekend?

Edited May 28 by cannastop

[Mojoguy]

11/8 weekend is wide open, and Dis has taken early Nov weekend it before with Big Hero 6 and Ralph. Either Wicked or Moana should have gone there. Movie would have had Thanksgiving in its 3rd weekend.

 

Best spot could have actually been 1 week earlier for either and had TG in its 2nd weekend. Big film sequels like Potter, Twilight and THG had that date. I see Gladiator 2 has that spot now, Wicked would have been great counterprograming. Gladiator is going to be the ultimate dad movie, while Wicked would be for females.

Edited May 28 by Mojoguy

[PNF2187]

20 minutes ago, cannastop said:

yeah that's what I keep saying. Disney doesn't blink. They'll always always want the Father's Day weekend slot, and the Thanksgiving slot.

 

the March slot can be somewhat flexible though.

 

As for Elemental, its release date was just fine. Dunno if you'd want it in July or something. And August is out of the question.

 

The only time in the recent past where I see Disney strayed from the Father's Day slot was 2019 with Toy Story 4... not sure why that happened. Did they want to avoid the Men in Black movie or SLOP 2's second weekend?

 

Father's Day weekend used to a happenstance for Pixar and not a set target. They've been taking the third Friday of June since 2013 with Monsters University (also June 21 and not on Father's Day weekend). If Inside Out 2 followed suit it would have also taken the 21st, but it's actually deviating a bit to the second Friday of June (the first Pixar movie to do that since Cars). I think they bumped it to the 14th to give more space between it and Despicable Me 4, because every time Disney tried to put a movie out 2 weeks before an Illumination film their legs have suffered greatly (see Monsters University and Cars 3). They seem more committed to Father's Day weekend now than they were pre-pandemic though, seeing as Elio is slated for June 13 next year.

[toutvabien]

28 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

11/8 weekend is wide open, and Dis has taken early Nov weekend it before with Big Hero 6 and Ralph. Either Wicked or Moana should have gone there. Movie would have had Thanksgiving in its 3rd weekend.

 

Best spot could have actually been 1 week earlier for either and had TG in its 2nd weekend. Big film sequels like Potter, Twilight and THG had that date. I see Gladiator 2 has that spot now, Wicked would have been great counterprograming. Gladiator is going to be the ultimate dad movie, while Wicked would be for females.

Wakanda Forever got a veryyy nice 3rd weekend hold over Thanksgiving 2 years ago as well! Think that would be a good slot for Moana, but I guess keeping it over Thanskgiving does give a chance at some big 5-day headlines. I think it can still hit $100m over the Holiday even with Wicked (actual 3-day just sub $70m, lower than what Moana 1 adjusts to). But if it doesn't, well, we'd know they ate from each other's numbers.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I hope neither this or Wicked blink because these two together (MoWicked? Wickedana?) are a Barbenheimer event for me lol.

WickedMoan

[YM!]

Like if this wasn't a last ditch edit of a mini-event streaming show, had actual songwriters and Disney actually had a few 200m+/600m+ hits from the animation arms post-pandemic, I'd feel like Wicked probably curbstomps it. Feel like numbers around Moana, maybe 20% more domestic and worldwide. Don't get even with Disney’s stubbornness on leaving Thanksgiving. Yeah it's their spot but like BH6 kick-off November just fine and ontop of that, this underperforming makes things harder for Zootopia 2 and even Frozen 3 somewhat facing challengers. 

Edited May 28 by YM!

[PNF2187]

11 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Wakanda Forever got a veryyy nice 3rd weekend hold over Thanksgiving 2 years ago as well! Think that would be a good slot for Moana, but I guess keeping it over Thanskgiving does give a chance at some big 5-day headlines. I think it can still hit $100m over the Holiday even with Wicked (actual 3-day just sub $70m, lower than what Moana 1 adjusts to). But if it doesn't, well, we'd know they ate from each other's numbers.

 

I think ideally Disney would want November 22 (that Friday did wonders for Catching Fire and Frozen 2), although Gladiator 2 already staked that out and doesn't seem to be budging.

 

I think Disney wants to be as close as possible to Thanksgiving though, not just because of the big flashy 5-day headlines that Moana 2, Zootopia 2, and Frozen 3 would break or approach records for, but also because of the potential to play throughout Christmas. They've squandered that opportunity in recent years with Encanto's deeply abridged theatrical window followed by Strange World and Wish being flaccid performers from opening day. But pre-pandemic showed the potential. At worst you still had the likes of The Good Dinosaur and Ralph Breaks the Internet being able to squeak past milestones at the end of their runs, and at best you had Frozen becoming a monster at the box office during the holidays and running unopposed in terms of family animation until February. Then there's the likes of Moana and Frozen 2 which were still healthy performers leading up to and during the holidays even while new releases were playing

 

You could make a point for Wakanda Forever, but IMO that film got lucky because a) Thanksgiving 2022 was a flopfest and b) Avatar and Puss in Boots were the only Christmas releases that made a dent. Moana 2 doesn't have the same luxuries for opening in early November, and most early November releases are usually done by Christmas.

[kayumanggi]

[AniNate]

I honestly just want to see what happens if they both release on the same weekend. Box office sucks rn so any talk of release date strategies feels like rearranging deck chairs. Leaning into the double feature hook feels as good as experiment as any.

 

Not to make this political but I do wonder if anxiety about the election is why studios are avoiding the beginning of November for new releases.

 

 

 

Edited May 28 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

[Speedorito]

38 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I honestly just want to see what happens if they both release on the same weekend. Box office sucks rn so any talk of release date strategies feels like rearranging deck chairs. Leaning into the double feature hook feels as good as experiment as any.

 

Not to make this political but I do wonder if anxiety about the election is why studios are avoiding the beginning of November for new releases.

 

 

 

That’s why V3NOM was bumped up to October.

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

It's crazy but i like more her face before than now . Her eyebrows are strange . Looks like she’s angry instead of looking happy in reality.

[Mojoguy]

21 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

It's crazy but i like more her face before than now . Her eyebrows are strange . Looks like she’s angry instead of looking happy in reality.

First picture is of her being relaxed, second picture is her being determined?

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, YM! said:

Like if this wasn't a last ditch edit of a mini-event streaming show, had actual songwriters and Disney actually had a few 200m+/600m+ hits from the animation arms post-pandemic, I'd feel like Wicked probably curbstomps it. Feel like numbers around Moana, maybe 20% more domestic and worldwide. Don't get even with Disney’s stubbornness on leaving Thanksgiving. Yeah it's their spot but like BH6 kick-off November just fine and ontop of that, this underperforming makes things harder for Zootopia 2 and even Frozen 3 somewhat facing challengers. 

Wait people think Wicked is gonna outright beat Moana 2?

 

Personally I strongly disagree, I think this being there is a major, major existential problem for Wicked, not the other way around. Moana is an incredibly popular franchise with a huge post-theatrical lifespan on streaming, arguably even stronger than stuff like Dune and Spider-Verse. The first is literally the most watched streaming movie ever! Even if the movie is bad, even if the songs are mid, even if WDAS has been a flop machine recently, Moana 2 is absolutely a juggernaut in the making in my opinion, with a hugely expanded fanbase from the first that should easily send it flying north of $800M+ WW.

 

Meanwhile Wicked? It’s an untested theatrical property, stage musicals to theatrical adaptations are decidedly not on a hot streak right now (In The Heights, Dear Evan Hansen), none of the stars are proven box office draws, it’s a two-parter which might prove to be a kneecap on repeat viewings, and yes while the comps I mentioned are obviously 2021 films and not super analogous to Wicked, I very much don’t think it on its own has the juice to go much past $400M WW without some exceptional WoM.

 

And then you put Moana 2 right next to it, taking away all the family audience that Wicked could’ve scored, plus a ton of the female moviegoing audience, and just screen space in general? I just don’t think Wicked is well positioned here at all, and I think its box office could get squeezed massively. I honestly think it should just move to Christmas and get out of Moana’s way, that way it has a monopoly on female moviegoers during the Christmas corridor.

 

Or I could be wrong, I dunno. I did think Wish would do super well and that blew completely up in my face, so maybe Moana isn’t just up to the task and Wicked is a monster in the making.

[Speedorito]

4 hours ago, YM! said:

Like if this wasn't a last ditch edit of a mini-event streaming show, had actual songwriters

I would’ve preferred LMM to return, but aren’t Barlow and Bear “actual songwriters”? One of them is a literal child prodigy and toured with Beyoncé recently. The whole legal aspect of the album was sketchy, but the Unofficial Bridgerton Musical shows they’re talented.

[Eric is Quiet]

Will say before the teaser potentially dashes my hopes that I would think going from TV series to movie may actually be a blessing for this creatively? The big issue most of these Disney+ shows have is that their pacing drags, as they all feel like movies being bloated and padded out to be 6 episode TV shows. You could take Obi-Wan or Falcon and the Winter Soldier, remove a subplot here and there, and get a 2.5 hour movie that, at the very least, fixes pacing issues. Condensing a bloated Moana sequel from 130 minutes to about 95 or 100 minutes? Sounds good to me!

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, AniNate said:

Not to make this political but I do wonder if anxiety about the election is why studios are avoiding the beginning of November for new releases.

never stopped them before, though in terms of presidential elections we have 2016 as the last one that actually had a box office weekend. Because 2020 was messed up.

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:

Will say before the teaser potentially dashes my hopes that I would think going from TV series to movie may actually be a blessing for this creatively? The big issue most of these Disney+ shows have is that their pacing drags, as they all feel like movies being bloated and padded out to be 6 episode TV shows. You could take Obi-Wan or Falcon and the Winter Soldier, remove a subplot here and there, and get a 2.5 hour movie that, at the very least, fixes pacing issues. Condensing a bloated Moana sequel from 130 minutes to about 95 or 100 minutes? Sounds good to me!

This is very much true which even though I'm dubious with the execution of it - I can acknowledge it's somewhat different at least from what we know than say Atlantis - Milo’s Return or Belle’s Magical World conceptually.

[Mojoguy]

14 minutes ago, YM! said:

This is very much true which even though I'm dubious with the execution of it - I can acknowledge it's somewhat different at least from what we know than say Atlantis - Milo’s Return or Belle’s Magical World conceptually.

Say what you will about the writing for Falcon and Obi-Wan shows, but both had massive budgets. Disney goes all out on spending on their D+ shows, so Moana 2 should at least look great.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

never stopped them before, though in terms of presidential elections we have 2016 as the last one that actually had a box office weekend. Because 2020 was messed up.

 

Yes, but before was before. There are certain unique factors here that might result in disruptive real world consequences depending on what the outcome is. Or at least that's what the perception might be from studio social media managers.

 

To bring this back to Moana, the whole last minute conversion from a series to movie combined with the knowledge that it is probably a corporately endorsed move coming off two original bombs can't help making it seem cynical on the surface, but knowing the director has Samoan heritage makes me far less inclined to write this off.