Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

[charlie Jatinder]

It was late for me last night so didn't say anything. 

Film	Projections	Reported	Change	Remarks
Wonka	$3.50	$3.50	0.00%
Migration	$1.20	$1.50	-20.00%
Aquaman 2	$4.00	$4.50	-11.11%
Mean Girls	$3.50	$3.25	7.69%
Beekeeper	$2.50	$2.40	4.17%
Argylle	$1.75	$1.70	2.94%
Dune 2	$11.00	$12.00	-8.33%	Actuals $11.1M
Kung Fu Panda 4	$3.50	$3.80	-7.89%
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$4.50	$4.70	-4.26%
Godzilla x Kong	$9.50	$10.00	-5.00%	Actuals $9.5M
Monkey Man	$1.50	$1.40	7.14%
Civil War	$3.50	$2.90	20.69%	This was a miss. Came way under cities than I expected.
Challengers	$2.50	$1.90	31.58%	Another miss. Same reason.
The Fall Guy	$3.00	$3.10	-3.23%
Apes	$7.00	$6.60	6.06%
IF	$1.80	$1.75	2.86%	I did use $1.8M+ here as I was expecting some over-indexing in Canada which didn't happen. Alternatively, I should have gone with $1.75M+, dunno why I wrote $1.8M.
Garfield	$2.50	$2.45	2.04%
Furiosa	$4.00	$3.50	14.29%	Another miss, same reason as above, though I haven't checked actuals for it.
Bad Boys	$5.75	$5.88	-2.21%

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8 by charlie Jatinder

[KGPatt2]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It was late for me last night so didn't say anything. 

Film	Projections	Reported	Change	Remarks
Wonka	$3.50	$3.50	0.00%
Migration	$1.20	$1.50	-20.00%
Aquaman 2	$4.00	$4.50	-11.11%
Mean Girls	$3.50	$3.25	7.69%
Beekeeper	$2.50	$2.40	4.17%
Argylle	$1.75	$1.70	2.94%
Dune 2	$11.00	$12.00	-8.33%	Actuals $11.1M
Kung Fu Panda 4	$3.50	$3.80	-7.89%
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$4.50	$4.70	-4.26%
Godzilla x Kong	$9.50	$10.00	-5.00%	Actuals $9.5M
Monkey Man	$1.50	$1.40	7.14%
Civil War	$3.50	$2.90	20.69%	This was a miss. Came way under cities than I expected.
Challengers	$2.50	$1.90	31.58%	Another miss. Same reason.
The Fall Guy	$3.00	$3.10	-3.23%
Apes	$7.00	$6.60	6.06%
IF	$1.80	$1.75	2.86%	I did use $1.8M+ here as I was expecting some over-indexing in Canada which didn't happen. Alternatively, I should have gone with $1.75M+, dunno why I wrote $1.8M.
Garfield	$2.50	$2.45	2.04%
Furiosa	$4.00	$3.50	14.29%	Another miss, same reason as above, though I haven't checked actuals for it.
Bad Boys	$5.75	$5.88	-2.21%

 

 

 

 

Absolutely unacceptable. Off by a few percentage points? Just ridiculous. Why do you even post at all? You should just leave these boards and leave this to the experts. You know, the ones who always get it exactly right, like Deadline.

[ringedmortality]

Insulting a user: I sleep

 

making fun of the quorum: real shit 

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

 

Very good. Smith's career is saved from Slapgate.

 

BB4 has Father's day next weekend which should mean a small drop. Should be the action movie choice until Deadpool.

 

I gotta wonder how bad the Furiosa drop is though. Boys has to have taken all of its potential audience. 

[Eric is Quiet]

35 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Minecraft definitely. What an utterly pointless movie. My nephew is a massive Minecraft fan and even he's like "Why are they doing a movie?"

I'm just baffled why it's live-action. Like...do the fans want something that will literally look nothing like the games? Like have it animated, make it look like a high-res version of the game, get Kevin Hart to voice one of the Creepers, and you're golden.

[Kon]

10 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Very good. Smith's career is saved from Slapgate.

 

BB4 has Father's day next weekend which should mean a small drop. Should be the action movie choice until Deadpool.

 

I gotta wonder how bad the Furiosa drop is though. Boys has to have taken all of its potential audience. 

Furiosa drop will be terrible due to the lost of theaters, but I don't think BB4 takes a big amount of Furiosa audience.

 

Although BB4 and Furiosa are action movies, the demographics they attract are pretty different. The biggest audience for BB4 are Black (36%) and Hispanic and Latino (29%), which has more diversity than Furiosa. Also, BB4 seems to have a decent amount of female audience, which isn't the case for Furiosa.

 

 

PS: I'm not sure Father's day will really help an R movie. That day would help family movies.

Edited June 8 by Kon

[Flip]

8 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

Summer releases this time next year:

 

MAY

02 THUNDERBOLTS

09

16 FLOWERVALE STREET

23 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE VIII

30 KARATE KID

 

JUNE

06 BALLERINA

 

Disney has an untitled release for May 23, but I don't know what it could be. It looks like a better line up compared to this year, but interestingly, none is locked for 200M.

If MI8 doesn’t make 200M I would be flabbergasted 

[dallas]

5 hours ago, babz06 said:

Is there any reason why you think they’ll make that much? 

They're fresh films in their respective declining franchises, helmed by filmmakers that know how to deliver crowdpleasing blockbusters. And for the record, I don't think 600M is "that much", I think it's reasonable for both films. 

[dallas]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Good to see we are all gonna pretend this is a great opening.

It's like 10M behind Bad Boys 3, which opened pre-pandemic when Will Smith and the Bad Boys brand both had far more draw and nostalgia. I'd say it's a great opening all things considered, and with its excellent WOM it should have great legs.

[Mojoguy]

Just now, dallas said:

It's like 10M behind Bad Boys 3, which opened pre-pandemic when Will Smith and the Bad Boys brand both had far more draw and nostalgia. I'd say it's a great opening all things considered, and with its excellent WOM it should have great legs.

Like I said before, $50M OW is the new $100M OW.

[dallas]

My top 5 predictions for 2025, in no particular order: Avatar 3, Jurassic World 4, Michael, Minecraft, Zootopia 2.

[dallas]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Like I said before, $50M OW is the new $100M OW.

I wouldn't go that far. 50M is the new 75M, and 75M is the new 100M. 

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It was late for me last night so didn't say anything. 

Film	Projections	Reported	Change	Remarks
Wonka	$3.50	$3.50	0.00%
Migration	$1.20	$1.50	-20.00%
Aquaman 2	$4.00	$4.50	-11.11%
Mean Girls	$3.50	$3.25	7.69%
Beekeeper	$2.50	$2.40	4.17%
Argylle	$1.75	$1.70	2.94%
Dune 2	$11.00	$12.00	-8.33%	Actuals $11.1M
Kung Fu Panda 4	$3.50	$3.80	-7.89%
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$4.50	$4.70	-4.26%
Godzilla x Kong	$9.50	$10.00	-5.00%	Actuals $9.5M
Monkey Man	$1.50	$1.40	7.14%
Civil War	$3.50	$2.90	20.69%	This was a miss. Came way under cities than I expected.
Challengers	$2.50	$1.90	31.58%	Another miss. Same reason.
The Fall Guy	$3.00	$3.10	-3.23%
Apes	$7.00	$6.60	6.06%
IF	$1.80	$1.75	2.86%	I did use $1.8M+ here as I was expecting some over-indexing in Canada which didn't happen. Alternatively, I should have gone with $1.75M+, dunno why I wrote $1.8M.
Garfield	$2.50	$2.45	2.04%
Furiosa	$4.00	$3.50	14.29%	Another miss, same reason as above, though I haven't checked actuals for it.
Bad Boys	$5.75	$5.88	-2.21%

 

 

 

 

Alright. I'm sorry. I'm sorry I doubted you. I'm sorry that I didn't check earlier. I thought you were often wrong, but I wasn't. Can we please move on?

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

I wouldn't go that far. 50M is the new 75M, and 75M is the new 100M. 

I'm change it to $80M OW is the new $100M OW. Dune 2 and Godzilla X Kong hit that number and should be considered big hits  especially with everything bombing around them.

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I'm change it to $80M OW is the new $100M OW. Dune 2 and Godzilla X Kong hit that number and should be considered big hits  especially with everything bombing around them.

I was gonna say that lol but I figured I'd round down. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’m expecting Jurassic to see a drop off. People really did not like those sequels and Universal basically forced Dominon over the billion mark. If the script is truly as good as hyped then it could have good legs but that’s also dependent on how the other July 2025 movies are received.

[dallas]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I’m expecting Jurassic to see a drop off. People really did not like those sequels and Universal basically forced Dominon over the billion mark. If the script is truly as good as hyped then it could have good legs but that’s also dependent on how the other July 2025 movies are received.

I think if Dominion can pass a billion, this can too, especially with a better script and an even more stacked cast.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

I think if Dominion can pass a billion, this can too, especially with a better script and an even more stacked cast.

Perhaps, but I still think the stink of Dominon is gonna hurt it. I’m surprised they’re making another one so soon tbh, I thought it would at least be five years. Plus the producer-driven nature of this movie is concerning 

[Joyous Legion]

49.99: year of cinema collapse continues

50.01: Teflon Will saves BO for all time

[keysersoze123]

Unlike the last movie, this is over indexing at MTC1. Of course the ratios have evolved since COVID with so many of MTC3 plexes having shutdown plus Pacific Cinemas/Arclight also shutting down and now Drafthouse is closing locations. But whatever data I could see at MTC2, it did underperform quite a bit compared to last movie. @charlie Jatinder might be able to confirm with Preview Actuals.