Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

[CJohn]

Apes is not gonna reach 400M. Sad!

[AnthonyJPHer]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Apes is not gonna reach 400M. Sad!

We actually don’t know that yet. Like, at all? It could be a crawl to 400m

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Jay Beezy said:

It’s safe to say that The Fall Guy’s marketing failed where it mattered: the trailers. A premise centered around moviemaking and being a “love letter to stunt performers” wasn’t necessarily going to appeal to general audiences. External marketing bits like the Beavis and Butthead bit at the premiere don’t really do anything.

Good point. 95% of the audience does not care about the behind the scenes of moviemaking. It's just us 5% of movie buffs who watch the bonus features on blu ray's and DVD and even less now because of streaming pretty much killing that market for the most part.

[AniNate]

So top ten this weekend estimated at $96.6 million. Don't want to get hopes up but if those more optimistic Inside Out 2 projections keep going higher a slight chance we beat the 2023 comp next week.

 

Sadly we have now officially fallen behind in the rolling year comp ($7.947 billion to $8.160 billion).

[Shadow2001]

Can we get a Independence Day 2 now? Don't know why we never got an Independence Day 2. ID was one of the best summer blockbusters of the 90s after all.

Edited June 9 by Shadow2001

[misterpepp]

5 minutes ago, Shadow2001 said:

Can we get a Independence Day 2 now? Don't know why we never got an Independence Day 2. ID was one of the best summer blockbusters of the 90s after all.

 

And I sure hope that whenever we make it we don't substitute Will Smith with Liam Hemsworth. It would also really suck if they brought back Vivica A. Fox only to kill her off!

 

Wait a minute.... 

[AniNate]

Roland Emmerich just doesn't have a whole lot of new tricks. Pretty much is Uwe Boll these days with more money.

[Mulder]

6 hours ago, Barnack said:

People going movie by movie for this, will tend to try to play it in some ways and are complicated stuff a bit

 

Start with:

Gross	vs 2024	vs 2023	vs 2022	vs 2021	vs 2020	vs 2019

2024	$2,703,510,635	-	-27%	-7.2%	+262.9%	+51%	-43.9%
2023	$3,704,381,482	+37%	-	+27.1%	+397.2%	+106.9%	-23.2%
2022	$2,913,667,511	+7.8%	-21.4%	-	+291.1%	+62.7%	-39.6%
2021	$745,004,363	-72.4%	-79.9%	-74.4%	-	-58.4%	-84.6%
2020	$1,790,793,459	-33.8%	-51.7%	-38.5%	+140.4%	-	-62.9%
2019	$4,821,920,627	+78.4%	+30.2%	+65.5%	+547.2%	+169.3%	-

 

 

Domestic Box office from january 1 to june 9 is down 44% since pre-pandemy, down 27% from last year

 

Inflation adjusted that down 54% versus 2019 (movie ticket price did not move up in price much, versus Subway and McDo, while their cost did rise up).

 

Any talk-analysis that do not have those....

 

But again those do not tell all the story, EndGames, Lion King, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2, Star Wars 9, Spider-Man far from home and Aladdin are all objectively bigger movie than any movie released in 2024.

 

 Bad boys, Apes did not decline that much, there a drop in product (specially Disney) that explain part of it, did Disney even released a single movie this year ?

I mean the year's not even over yet. We just hit the 6th month of the year. I'm not saying that there's not stuff going on, there is, but looking at the current slate for this month and the tracking thread Inside Out 2 is looking to do pretty decently especially considering Pixar's recent woes & A Quiet Place's prequel is gearing up to be a decently sized small hit and Bad Boys 4 almost 1:1 matched Bad Boys 3's opening weekend pre-pandemic. Deadpool & Wolverine is looking to be the first really big movie of the year too. I'm not saying the year hasn't been rough in spots but I think all the doom and gloom over May alone was kind of goofy.

[Shadow2001]

57 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Roland Emmerich just doesn't have a whole lot of new tricks. Pretty much is Uwe Boll these days with more money.

Oh that's not fair. Midway wasn't that...bad.

 

*Looks at Moonfall* Ok point taken.

[JimmyB]

47 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I mean the year's not even over yet. We just hit the 6th month of the year. I'm not saying that there's not stuff going on, there is, but looking at the current slate for this month and the tracking thread Inside Out 2 is looking to do pretty decently especially considering Pixar's recent woes & A Quiet Place's prequel is gearing up to be a decently sized small hit and Bad Boys 4 almost 1:1 matched Bad Boys 3's opening weekend pre-pandemic. Deadpool & Wolverine is looking to be the first really big movie of the year too. I'm not saying the year hasn't been rough in spots but I think all the doom and gloom over May alone was kind of goofy.

It's not just May its the year. The few hits in summer arent enough, that been the problem all year.  June will finish 30-35% behind June last year.  Summer box office is trending to finish under 3 billion.

[filmscholar]

1 hour ago, Shadow2001 said:

Can we get a Independence Day 2 now? Don't know why we never got an Independence Day 2. ID was one of the best summer blockbusters of the 90s after all.

 

We should be on "Independence Day" 6 by now.   I'm still mad at Will for not making that a Franchise.  There were so many different angles to keep that going.  For a film that big to basically be a "Stand Alone" for 20 years.  With that said, it's a Blockbuster Classic so it's standing hasn't gone down but a "Independence Day 2" in early 2000's would have been massive.  When he did "MIB 2" and "Bad Boy II", he should have done the next ID4.    "ID4-R" was just wasted without Will in it.   

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

I mean the year's not even over yet. We just hit the 6th month of the year. I'm not saying that there's not stuff going on, there is, but looking at the current slate for this month and the tracking thread Inside Out 2 is looking to do pretty decently especially considering Pixar's recent woes & A Quiet Place's prequel is gearing up to be a decently sized small hit and Bad Boys 4 almost 1:1 matched Bad Boys 3's opening weekend pre-pandemic. Deadpool & Wolverine is looking to be the first really big movie of the year too. I'm not saying the year hasn't been rough in spots but I think all the doom and gloom over May alone was kind of goofy.

 

This is why I've been keeping tabs on the rolling year comparison, to get a sense of more of a real-time annual comparison that isn't just reacting to the last weekend's box office. We did just fall behind 2022-2023 this past week so at this point it's a legit regression. But IO2, the July slate, and the frankly quite impressive late year slate of tentpoles on paper should hopefully help the year end on a more positive note at least.

[Mulder]

36 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

It's not just May its the year. The few hits in summer arent enough, that been the problem all year.  June will finish 30-35% behind June last year.  Summer box office is trending to finish under 3 billion.

Both Dune 2 and GxK were genuinely impressive success stories and the attitude before May was that things were looking up. It's definitely just May.

[Cmasterclay]

Well, the top of the box office is definitely gonna look up, but that's not the issue. Even if Bad Boys/IO2/AQP were to equal Spiderverse/Indy/Transformers, which I suppose is possible, there's nothing that is even gonna come close to the Flash. Hell, unless Horizon stuns us, nothing is even gonna outgross No Hard Feelings And The Boogeyman! Same with July - even if Deadpool/Despicable/Twisters match Barbieheimer and MI, which probably won't happen but can get close enough, there's nothing else that's even gonna gross 30m. There's a reason that the industry has gone from 8.5 bill to 7.5 bill predictions. Things that aren't hits just aren't hitting at all, and I don't see that changing with stuff like Wolfs or Wild Robot or whatever in the fall. It's even more feast and famine than the last two years.

Edited June 10 by Cmasterclay

[AniNate]

Jan/Feb was pretty bad and the best that could be said about April was it had some interesting original movies

[JimmyB]

15 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Both Dune 2 and GxK were genuinely impressive success stories and the attitude before May was that things were looking up. It's definitely just May.

Every month outside of March was awful.  I dont know what numbers you are looking at.

 

January was 15% behind January 2023.

February was 27% behind Feb. 2023.

March was 17% increase over March 2023.

April was 52% behind April 2023. April was the lowest grossing non covid month since 1997.

May was 29% behind May 2023.

June will 30-35% behind June 2023.

 

The first six months of the year will be around 3.3b.  Double that number for the next 6 months and add a billion with a better 2nd half of blockbusters and the year ends at 7.6b. 

 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/april/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

 

 

 

[Shadow2001]

52 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

 

We should be on "Independence Day" 6 by now.   I'm still mad at Will for not making that a Franchise.  There were so many different angles to keep that going.  For a film that big to basically be a "Stand Alone" for 20 years.  With that said, it's a Blockbuster Classic so it's standing hasn't gone down but a "Independence Day 2" in early 2000's would have been massive.  When he did "MIB 2" and "Bad Boy II", he should have done the next ID4.    "ID4-R" was just wasted without Will in it.   

I'm sticking to my real world headcannon that ID4-R was a massive hallucination we briefly had in 2016 or it was cancelled since it would be ridiculious to have a ID4 sequel without Will Smith. 

Edited June 10 by Shadow2001

[dallas]

 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

 

Good to hear. But A final total of 160?  With summer weekdays and good WOM and like no competition at all it should  do better than that.

[filmscholar]

30 minutes ago, Shadow2001 said:

I'm sticking to my real world headcannon that ID4-R was a massive hallucination we briefly had in 2016 or it was cancelled since it would be ridiculious to have a ID4 sequel without Will Smith. 

 

I still watched it out of respect and it was cool to see most of all the returning characters. It was just OK and didn't have that same Epic feel.  Will missing presence was felt.  Hypothetically speaking, I think there is a way to write him back in the 3rd Film and say his absence had to do with the government keeping him out of the picture like a witness protection program (Because of all the information he knows about the Aliens).  It's Sci Fi with Government elements, they can figure it out.  ID-4: Rampage 2026, lol.